Celtics draft predictions
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
#6 Noah Vonleh - Providing the C's with much-needed rim protection, and knows his way around the offensive side, too.
#17 Rodney Hood - A Jeff Green with balls, to eventually replace Jeff Green.
#17 Rodney Hood - A Jeff Green with balls, to eventually replace Jeff Green.
#6 Dario Saric or Marcus Smart-- BPA. Saric is a guy that Flip Saunders might prefer if Love is on the move. Saric fits well with Rubio and Pekovic. BUT, if Rondo is traded or likely to be traded, Ainge might prefer Marcus Smart.
#17 Gary Harris-- Most likely slippery slider of the guys currently ranked on the top 15. Hope I'm wrong, because I'd prefer Hood, Warren, LaVine or Porzingis with this pick.
#17 Gary Harris-- Most likely slippery slider of the guys currently ranked on the top 15. Hope I'm wrong, because I'd prefer Hood, Warren, LaVine or Porzingis with this pick.
6: Aaron Gordon - Danny will overlook his warts and chase the upside. (I would prefer Vonleh here).
17: Rodney Hood - I haven't checked for sure, but Ainge likes guys with "pedigree" (too much perhaps?) it seems. Hood was a top 20 overall prospect and played for a major program.
17: Rodney Hood - I haven't checked for sure, but Ainge likes guys with "pedigree" (too much perhaps?) it seems. Hood was a top 20 overall prospect and played for a major program.
#6: Trade with Magic. Grab James Young with 12th pick. 6th man with shooting and athleticism to sub for Bradley and Green. Pick up future 1st round pick from Magic.
#17:Trade with Hornets. Grab Kyle Anderson with 24th pick as a future point forward. Damn team nicknames. Receive Biyombo and #45. Draft Russ Smith.
#17:Trade with Hornets. Grab Kyle Anderson with 24th pick as a future point forward. Damn team nicknames. Receive Biyombo and #45. Draft Russ Smith.
6. Marcus Smart to replace Rondo when he leaves.
17.Clint Capela to fill in the middle. I'm not sure if I'll like that pick.
17.Clint Capela to fill in the middle. I'm not sure if I'll like that pick.
This is if there are no trades.
6--Marcus Smart. Can play 1 or 2. Explosive scorer.
17--Zak LaVine
6--Marcus Smart. Can play 1 or 2. Explosive scorer.
17--Zak LaVine
6- Gordon, only after a million trade proposals fall through at the last minute.
17- Trade. Just a partner in a three way that helps someone else with cap space.
Danny tries to sell Gordon's upside while the locals get cranky after they learn what trades fell through and Love lands in LA.
17- Trade. Just a partner in a three way that helps someone else with cap space.
Danny tries to sell Gordon's upside while the locals get cranky after they learn what trades fell through and Love lands in LA.
I haven't watched any college basketball this year (except for this thread), don't know the candidates for each position, but I do know Danny Ainge - not personally, but as an asset assembler, inventory manager, judge of franchise timing, and definite opinions regarding talent.
Both picks traded in a package deal to move down from the first seven, and to convert the Attlebicken pick (#17) to another asset. This will be a reverse Marcus Banks / Kendrick Perkins draft, but moved up ~6 slots.
Both picks traded in a package deal to move down from the first seven, and to convert the Attlebicken pick (#17) to another asset. This will be a reverse Marcus Banks / Kendrick Perkins draft, but moved up ~6 slots.
I was waiting for someone to predict Early at 17. He is the type of established older player that fits the Ainge mold at a position of need with only Green currently able to play this versatile role. Ainge loves the 4-5 year college player who is 22 or so and Early would be a good compliment toward the younger higher upside guy he'll likely take at 6 if we keep the pick in Gordon.
I love what I have seen of Early but can't tell what to make of him as a prospect. Did not watch him enough to form an opinion. Actually that sums up my knowledge of all college players with the exception of Randle so take my predictions with a grain of salt.BigSoxFan said:
On Smart, I read numerous articles talking about his leadership and intangibles, but almost as many discussing his issue at Texas Tech and general immaturity issues. Can he defend the two in the NBA? Or is he another Bradley with a better offensive game?
IMHO Smart is Tony Allen with handles and court vision. He's a ferocious defender with an NBA body. He's a slasher, not a good outside shooter.
If you draft Smart to play sg, it's a waste. He played sg at OK State, but only because the only other decent player they had was Markel Brown, who is a pg.
IMHO Smart is a Rondo replacement, not a Bradley replacement, at least not in the long run.
If you draft Smart to play sg, it's a waste. He played sg at OK State, but only because the only other decent player they had was Markel Brown, who is a pg.
IMHO Smart is a Rondo replacement, not a Bradley replacement, at least not in the long run.
On Early, the biggest concern for me is his age. He's already 23, so you have to worry how much upside he's got. Is he a guy who just got hot at the right time in the tourney, or is he someone who's been under the radar? He tested/measured out really well at the combine, which helped his stock, but if he doesn't play well in workouts against other wing prospects, I could see him being a round 2 prospect.
I'd certainly prefer Payne to Early as well, but perhaps the thinking is that he won't be there at 17.
And if Danny's gonna draft a big PG who can't shoot but can run the offense and play great D, I'd much prefer Elfrid Payton at 17 (with Gordon or Vonleh at 6) to Smart at 6 and whoever at 17.
And if Danny's gonna draft a big PG who can't shoot but can run the offense and play great D, I'd much prefer Elfrid Payton at 17 (with Gordon or Vonleh at 6) to Smart at 6 and whoever at 17.
I just can't bear to watch 40% free throw shooters. I just can't. I'm biased. Gordon is certainly a great athlete, but how can you have him in at the end of a close game? And how many years will you have to wait until he gets to 50% (which still sucks)?
Scottie Wilbekin is probably going to go undrafted, and I'd just as soon have him on a rookie minimum deal as Elfrid Payton on a guaranteed deal. Dan to Theo to Ben also mentioned Russ Smith in his post above. I would love to see Ainge acquire a second rounder to draft Smith.
Scottie Wilbekin is probably going to go undrafted, and I'd just as soon have him on a rookie minimum deal as Elfrid Payton on a guaranteed deal. Dan to Theo to Ben also mentioned Russ Smith in his post above. I would love to see Ainge acquire a second rounder to draft Smith.
#6 - Vonleh
if he's available I think Ainge will love his combination of size/skill/length & adequate athleticism and the potential that he could play the 3,4 or 5
#17 - James Young
if available, this is an Ainge-type pick based on him being a top-5 recruit in his class and slipping due to an underwhelming freshman year
if not available, I could see him going Cleanthony Early b/c Ainge also sometimes likes the older players who put up great stats
if he's available I think Ainge will love his combination of size/skill/length & adequate athleticism and the potential that he could play the 3,4 or 5
#17 - James Young
if available, this is an Ainge-type pick based on him being a top-5 recruit in his class and slipping due to an underwhelming freshman year
if not available, I could see him going Cleanthony Early b/c Ainge also sometimes likes the older players who put up great stats
Brickowski said:
I'll take the over on Gordon's FT% this year if we're making the line 40%. Would take the over on 50% too. He was obviously awful at the FT line this year at Arizona, but his stroke it good enough that I don't think it's a huge deal. I think he can be a 60+% guy after a few years in the league. I wouldn't make it much of a knock on his draft status.
I'll go...
6-- Gordon
17-- Harris or Stauskas (hoping one slips)
6 - Dante Exum. Hope he drops to #6, better than the rest left.
17 - Glenn Robinson III. SF/SG, has shown a decent offense, can create his own shot and plays a passable defense. Might be too small for a SF, so he could end up as SG, but has the quickness and athleticism.
17 - Glenn Robinson III. SF/SG, has shown a decent offense, can create his own shot and plays a passable defense. Might be too small for a SF, so he could end up as SG, but has the quickness and athleticism.
That's the conventional wisdom on Gordon--his shooting stroke isn't bad so maybe he'll improve-- but if you look at the scouting videos on DraftExpress and elsewhere it just ain't so. He has a slow release on his jump shot in catch and shoot situations. He does not shoot well off the dribble. Folks point to his 3 point shooting, but his percentage from beyond the arc was worse than Marcus Smart's.
At the free throw line, he just flips the ball up with absolutely no idea of where it is going. His form from the waist down is ok (he's not stiff-legged) but from the shoulders up it is terrible. He can't even shoot the ball on a straight line; many of his misses are to the side, and sometimes he misses the rim completely.
He's a great alley oop dunker, in spite of his modest wingspan (it's the same as Randle's). That's basically his strength offensively. I really don't want any part of him, and I hope Ainge is looking at the same or similar film.
He's very good defensively, but he projects as a small forward in the NBA, and you need scoring from that position.
Danny trades 6+17 for 4 and drafts Dante Exum.
Edit: I'll add, if we stand pat at 6 and 17, we'll draft Marcus Smart and TJ Warren
Edit: I'll add, if we stand pat at 6 and 17, we'll draft Marcus Smart and TJ Warren
What would the C's need to trade to get into top 3? Would the 6, 17 and next years Clippers #1, do it?
The trade that comes to mind is the OJ Mayo (3) for Kevin Love (5). The Timberwolves unloaded some bad contracts (Jaric, Toine) and acquired Mike Miller as well. I guess it depends on the needs of the team. If Embiid is set to go #3, I could see Philadelphia trading down if they're sold on Noel. Ultimately, I think the Celtics trade the pick in a package for a guy like Love. I don't think they have the patience to build through the draft.
Brickowski said:
It's really not that hard to become a 60% FT shooter in the NBA. The Andre Drummonds and DeAndre Jordan can't do it, but they are the anomaly. I don't think Gordon's shot is that broken. He may not do it right when he comes into the league, but I don't think it's a stretch to think he can improve to "below average" as opposed to "horrifically bad". In fact, if Gordon is available at #6 because some GM shares your concern, I think that's a blessing for the Celtics.
As to your comment about Smart's shooting, I have no clue what stats you are talking about. Smart shot 30% and 29% from 3PT range in both of his seasons in college. Gordon shot 36% this past year from 3.
I stand corrected. I was looking at an outdated number. Gordon indeed shot 35.6% from beyond the arc last year, although he did not take very many (slightly more than one per game over 35 games).
But let me add that he has no post game and no left hand, either. DraftExpress currently has him going at #10, and IMHO that's about right.
Ok in your mind, the 6, 17 and next year's Clippers #1 (probably a 20-something) is too much for the C's to get a top 3 pick. But the question was, would the holders of those picks trade it for that package?BigSoxFan said:
Vonleh strikes me as someone Ainge would like, is he still on the board at 6?
17 is really hard to predict. It is easy for Danny to move around here too(up or down)
17 is really hard to predict. It is easy for Danny to move around here too(up or down)
snowmanny said:
It really is, though it's just one year, and both (especially the 3 PT shooting) are small samples. I don't think either one is very indicative of his true talent level, at least at this point in time.
Unless he has some mental block that he just can't overcome (Steve Blass/Daniel Bard disease of FT shooting), there is no way he will be a 42% FT shooter going forward.
as for me
#6 Gordon -- too much smoke around this guy. If he's available, I think the Celtics will get him. Objectively, I would like this pick if Gordon were drafted to be a 4. The Celtics will probably convert him to small forward so that he can fit their scheme of wings who can't shoot. Recipe for success.
#17 Nurcic, Capela, or some other big who I know nothing about -- Celtics roll the dice on a body to play center. I'll trust the scouts here, but I think they'll come up snake eyes (odds are not good in this range, anyways).
#6 Gordon -- too much smoke around this guy. If he's available, I think the Celtics will get him. Objectively, I would like this pick if Gordon were drafted to be a 4. The Celtics will probably convert him to small forward so that he can fit their scheme of wings who can't shoot. Recipe for success.
#17 Nurcic, Capela, or some other big who I know nothing about -- Celtics roll the dice on a body to play center. I'll trust the scouts here, but I think they'll come up snake eyes (odds are not good in this range, anyways).
I would be stunned if anyone traded down out of the top 3 for bulk picks.bankshot1 said:
All three teams are looking for one elite talent, they already have young rosters.
Philly at #3 already has two first round picks from last year, and two more from the previous year on their roster. Then they have two first round picks, and five second rounders this year. Last thing they need is bulk picks for the #3.
I would off Philly the #17 and their pick next year for the #10. That lottery-protected pick next year is most likely to turn into just two 2nd-rounders, of which the cost was Jordan Crawford. I think that's worth offering to move up from 17 to 10.
I bet Ainge does shop that pick(s) to move up if he's targeted a guy, but again Philly has a million picks/young players already. Don't see them adding more to slide down. Might not be enough to move that high either. Boston traded two second round picks(I think a trade partner would expect the Philly pick to be two seconds) to move from #16 to #13 last year. Minnesota at #13 I could see though since they owe a future first to Phoenix and could use an extra pick next year. Maybe with protection that if the pick from Philly does end up being a 1st, Minnesota would have to send Boston a 2nd or something.JohnnyTheBone said:
I don't think that Philly pick is that valuable, but could help Ainge move up the board just a little bit it necessary.
The only question is how quickly Danny gets the phone hung up on him with that offer. You're getting a legitimate prospect at 10 while at 17 you're either taking a flier on a flawed player or a lower upside guy. Philly has FIVE 2nd round picks this year in addition to their two 1st rounders so they certainly aren't going to give up a lottery pick for an inferior 1st rounder to acquire their 6th and 7th 2nd round selection of the draft.JohnnyTheBone said:
Devizier said:
Nurcic will not be available at 17.
I want Vonleh at 6 but I'm not sure he'll still be there. If not Vonleh, Smart is my pick.
At 17, it depends a bit on the 6 pick. If it is Vonleh, I think I'd take Hood, who there's a decent chance will still be around. If Smart is the pick, I'd probably roll the dice on Capela here because he has all the physical tools.
I'm not a believer in Gordon.
#6- Gordon or Vonleh. I think it will probably be Vonleh because unless Utah trades up to get Jabari, I think Gordon is the best fit for the team.
#17- A lot tougher to predict since there could be a lot of different players available, but I think they take one of PJ Hairston (one of the most ready players in the draft, good shooter and defender), Zach LaVine (A project, could be something or he could flame out), or Elfriid Payton (hope he's still available at that point)
#17- A lot tougher to predict since there could be a lot of different players available, but I think they take one of PJ Hairston (one of the most ready players in the draft, good shooter and defender), Zach LaVine (A project, could be something or he could flame out), or Elfriid Payton (hope he's still available at that point)