Cora has stated that the Sox are unlikely to carry 3 catchers again this year. So, who stays/goes and why?
Leon is younger and has a smaller salary than MM is (likely) gonna demand. I think $ is more important in KC than other places and you can get a lottery pick recent draftee instead of just nothing.I know Perez going down potentially creates a trade partner, but I can't get past the fact that Martin Maldonado is still available. Why trade something for Vazquez (who's locked up long term) or Leon when you can sign Maldonado for straight cash at roughly the same salary?
I think if the Sox ultimately go with just two of the catchers, the third is more likely to get released than traded.
FORT MYERS, Fla. -- In the eyes of Alex Cora, the Red Sox’ catching competition is wide open as Grapefruit League play begins this weekend.
The Sox won’t break camp with Sandy Leon, Blake Swihart and Christian Vazquez all on the roster, meaning one of the three will either be traded or released before Opening Day. The trio has been shopped in trade talks all winter but no deal has materalized.
Cora is viewing the race holistically instead of putting too much stock in day-to-day performance. It’s an understandable approach for a manager who watched all three catchers in the majors for the entirety of last season.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/02/boston-red-sox-catching-competition-wide-open-as-grapefruit-league-play-begins.htmlWhile a variety of factors will play into the final decision, Cora does believe familiarity with the pitching staff will carry significant weight. He mentioned how both Leon and Vazquez were impressive with their handling of pitchers last year, with the team winning 25 out of 26 Leon starts during one stretch and Vazquez taking over in the postseason.
“Our pitchers, they trust them,” Cora said. “Obviously, yeah, Sandy has caught a lot the last two years and it seems like he’s caught the same guys a lot. It gets to a point sometimes where you have to make decisions based on that. With the offense that we have, it’s not that we’d like them to hit .200 or not get on base, but we feel that we’re still going to score enough runs.”
So which one would you NOT keep?I apparently can't vote but I'd keep Swihart because he is potentially a better hitter and runner than the other two, he is a switch-hitter, and he played C/1B/2B/3B/LF/RF last season.
The problem is that if you don’t cut Swihart you have to cut someone else if Pedroia is healthy. Pearce, Leon, and Holt aren’t going anywhere. There’s only room for 2 of Nunez, Pedroia, and Swihart.Leon should be released as framing has been devalued and his offense is atrocious outside of a seemingly unrepeatable hot streak.That said, the Sox are probably not just looking at framing and defense/ throwing, but basing their personnel decisions behind the dish on who the pitchers are comfortable throwing to and just ignoring the postion's offense, which is pretty bad league wide.
That probably puts Swihart on the outside looking in, but I think he's more valuable as someone who can play many different positions and has the most offensive upside (at least in theory, working from a low bar for these 3), but as a player being paid arbitration rates without an actual offensive track record, he's long in the tooth to actually dream on.
That leaves the Sox without a trade partner willing to give up anything of value, so they may as well carry all 3 again and make use of that flexibility for pinch hitting and running in an attempt to scrape some use out of the position offensively.
Probably Vazquez. I think he might have a little more trade value than Leon and maybe a little less value as catcher.So which one would you NOT keep?
I don't think salaries would be all that far apart. Leon is making $2.5M, Vasquez $2.8M. Maldonado projects to be $3-4M...probably on the lower end if he is desperate to sign. Comes down to what the Red Sox would ask in return and what that's worth to the Royals.Leon is younger and has a smaller salary than MM is (likely) gonna demand. I think $ is more important in KC than other places and you can get a lottery pick recent draftee instead of just nothing.
Yeah I don't think they trade for Vaz.
Perez will likely be back next year, and he's locked in through 2021 for an average of about $13M/year. Given that, if I were the Royals FO I would have little trouble deciding between the guy who's in arb at relatively low cost for the next two years, and who can be non-tendered for 2020 if need be, vs. the guy who's also locked in through 2021. The difference in likely on-field value would matter less to me, given that no one in their right mind thinks my team is going anywhere this year.Probably Vazquez. I think he might have a little more trade value than Leon and maybe a little less value as catcher.
With some positions I think this is true, but with a catcher, you don't really want to be adding that guy with 2 days left before the season starts. Ideally you want him to have some time to learn your pitchers. I don't think this consideration would be enough to make a team give up serious talent, but it might be enough to net a lottery ticket or two.It seems so likely that Swihart will be cut (mainly for the reasons related to 2018 that YTF posted) that I can’t imagine anyone would trade for him when he can be picked up off waivers for free.
I think there was a time when that could have happened. But I also think that time has come and gone. It wouldn't shock me if he turned out to be a late-blooming standout, but I'd bet against it, and I definitely don't think it's happening in a Sox uniform. They're committed to Vazquez, I think--and regardless, I don't think they'd get anything of value for that contract, so they might as well keep him around. So I think it's a question of Leon vs. Swihart, and I think they'll pick the certainty of Leon's defensive value over the possibility of Swihart's offense.I really think Swihart will blossom into an above average offensive catcher while being a league average defensive catcher.. which would make him one of the best overall catchers in the game.
Not really possible if Pedroia goes north. That means one of Holt, Nunez or Pearce doesn't.Feels like this "only keeping 2 catchers" campaign may be a bit orchestrated to try and drum up trade interest. If no reasonable deal emerges, I can still see them going North with all 3 on the roster.
They might do that but if they carry 13 pitchers, then there is only room for 12 position players, nine of whom will be regulars (of course, it could be 12 pitchers). On the bench they would need a CF, a SS, and a C, at minimum. A lot depends on how Pedroia fairs. Holt is a very useful utility player but do you keep him and Nunez and two catchers on the bench?Feels like this "only keeping 2 catchers" campaign may be a bit orchestrated to try and drum up trade interest. If no reasonable deal emerges, I can still see them going North with all 3 on the roster.
You start 3 CF's. You don't need another one on the bench.They might do that but if they carry 13 pitchers, then there is only room for 12 position players, nine of whom will be regulars (of course, it could be 12 pitchers). On the bench they would need a CF, a SS, and a C, at minimum. A lot depends on how Pedroia fairs. Holt is a very useful utility player but do you keep him and Nunez and two catchers on the bench?
Point taken but I still think the bench make-up depends on how well Pedroia comes back.You start 3 CF's.
True, which is why I support more IF's and corner OF's (since you need Nunez for 2B) and fewer P's in April.Point taken but I still think the bench make-up depends on how well Pedroia comes back.
But the fact that The Red Sox are so damned reluctant to give Swihart much playing time behind the plate should tell us something.I think they should cut Leon and take their chances that he passes through waivers. I have seen nothing from Swihart that tells me he can't handle the position defensively. Leon is a black hole with the bat and really no upside there either.
I believe the pitchers like throwing to him. There were stats on it that i can't seem to find right now.I think they should cut Leon and take their chances that he passes through waivers. I have seen nothing from Swihart that tells me he can't handle the position defensively. Leon is a black hole with the bat and really no upside there either.
Your last point certainly doesn't make moving Swihart any easier, but it shouldn't be a factor nor do I think it will be.Obviously, none of us know what the thinking is inside the organization, but by what has been written in articles, there are arguments for all three. Vasquez was most likely the choice of Farrell, does have 1 decent season, is a native of Puerto Rico, like his manger and is generally regarded as an above average catcher defensively. Leon seems to get most the compliments from the pitching staff, has had a half season of good offense, is a switch hitter and is considered above average behind the dish in all aspects. Swihart is by far the most athletic of the three, had a decent year offensively as a youngster, has the most offensive upside, plays other positions, also a switch hitter, and could have a possible PR hit if his trade/release isn't handled correctly because of his grief of losing his brother. None seem leaps and bounds better than the others.
When was the last time the Red Sox carried 11 pitchers? Honest question, because I don't recall it happening at all last year with those innings eaters on the roster. In fact, for an extended period during the summer, they carried 13. I really don't think they're ever going to open the season with 11 pitchers again, unless it's an odd situation where a starter opens the year on the DL and is activated for his first start shortly into the season.I would prefer 11 P's though, Sale, Price, Porcello are pretty good innings eaters.
During the playoffs, I think it was Joe Buck who said "Swihart is a utilityman who can catch a little." I thought it was the perfect description. Looking back on his career, I think he was a bit overrated and never should have been a top 20 prospect. He hasn't hit since his injury, and even before that hadn't hit well above AA. He was ok in 2015 and in limited time in 2016 but that was heavily aided by a .359 BAbip and .348 BAbip respectively. In 2018, it was .311. It's not like he was super unlucky last year in that regard. He just doesn't hit for any power whatsoever. For his career, he hits 1 HR every 68.4 At bats. His extra base hit % is 6.5, the league average is 8.0. His career ISO is .108. In the minors, it was .130. His career high ISO for a season is .176 in 2014 (.187 in AA, .116 in AAA). His 2nd and 3rd best marks were .133 and .130, which came in 2012 and 2013. He hasn't had an ISO over .100 since 2015.But the fact that The Red Sox are so damned reluctant to give Swihart much playing time behind the plate should tell us something.
When was the last time the Red Sox had such a good starting staff? With both Wright (or Vela if Wright starts on DL) and Johnson burdening the risk of a flameout, and without wasting a spot on a pitcher that only pitches when you're leading by small margin or tied, and no more than 3-4 outs, you can afford only having 6 relievers, when everyone is gonna be fresh on April 11 following 2 off days in 3 days. I see no reason that your front 4 can't go 7 innings in each of their first 2 starts. And Erod is pretty good for a #5.When was the last time the Red Sox carried 11 pitchers? Honest question, because I don't recall it happening at all last year with those innings eaters on the roster. In fact, for an extended period during the summer, they carried 13. I really don't think they're ever going to open the season with 11 pitchers again, unless it's an odd situation where a starter opens the year on the DL and is activated for his first start shortly into the season.
The days of a horse starting pitcher going 7+ and enabling the team to carry a shorter bullpen are over.
I agree with you 100%. But I feel that the only reason the ownership group kept Farrell as long as they did was his battle with cancer. Just my opinion, but could show precedence for how they view things.Your last point certainly doesn't make moving Swihart any easier, but it shouldn't be a factor nor do I think it will be.
You're right. I was thinking they'd have to have 13 position players for a few weeks until they feel sure what Pedroia can give them, but I forgot about the two 1B.Not really possible if Pedroia goes north. That means one of Holt, Nunez or Pearce doesn't.
There is still 0.0% chance they start with 11 pitchers with that run of games they start the season with.You start 3 CF's. You don't need another one on the bench.
I would prefer 11 P's though, Sale, Price, Porcello are pretty good innings eaters.
A lot of people felt that way and that may well have played a hand in things, but it's a bit difficult to equate the two IMO. Farrell was a manager with a recent World Championship under his belt who had been diagnosed with cancer, Swihart is a #3 catcher who hasn't any real amount of success the league who lost a brother.I agree with you 100%. But I feel that the only reason the ownership group kept Farrell as long as they did was his battle with cancer. Just my opinion, but could show precedence for how they view things.
Have Marco's arms been reattached yet? (Isn't he on his 43rd straight offseason recovery from shoulder surgery?) [/hyperbole]Personally, I would rather have Swihart than Núñez, but I suspect that might just be me. We have a ton of depth in the organization in terms of players with a Núñez-like skill set: Brock Holt and Tzu-Wei Lin and Marco Hernandez. Michael Chavis can't play SS, but frankly, neither can Núñez.
Now that Holt actually looks to be past his concussion issues *knocks on wood* and Devers seems to have arrived for good, we need a multi-position specialist like Holt or Lin as a backup SS/3B and Pedroia caddy. Swihart can pick up a few innings at the corner IF spots. If anyone gets hurt, Marco and Chavis are in AAA.