WenZink said:
Spoiler Alert: You're not getting David Price!
You've been watching a bunch of young hitters post OPS of 1.000+ for the past month after there is no pressure and they just get to play and it doesn't even matter if they win or lose.
This team has a lot of young talent that is cost controlled, but with the exception of Rodriguez, none of them pitch. And as highly as I think of EdRo, he's just 22, and is still a work in progress. He might be one of the top 20 pitchers in the league this time next year, but he also might struggle early in the season, and be sent down to Pawtucket to figure something out. Either way, I'm still high on him, but I feel better about him in 2 or 3 years than I do in 2016.
John Henry has long talked about building a team that has a 5 or 6 year run. Dombrowski knows he has time to build a winner, but when he does he wants a team that can be multi-year contender.
If the Sox want David Price they'll sign David Price. He's a free agent and he'll take the best contract he's offered.
If the Sox want Sonny Gray they'll be dependent on Billy Beane wanting to move Sonny Gray. Something he has zero motivation to do now when Sonny Gray is still a pre-arb and won't get expensive for several more years. Trading Gray now versus in two years isn't going to dramatically change the quality of prospects in the return either since in either scenario Beane gets to fleece a club's mL system.
Last I checked Henry Owens and Brian Johnson both pitch, and prior to this spring were considered better prospects than Rodriguez, who go the early call because he was already on the 40 man roster. They have pitching help on the way, just like the positional help we're seeing arrive right now.
Which is where those 1.000 OPS months are coming from, FYI. I can't imagine anyone seriously arguing this is the new normal, but it establishes an upper-bound on what these players are capable of in bursts. Every player's individual seasons are conglomerations of hot and cold periods. Bradley, Swihart, Castillo, etc. to putting up >.900 OPS months suggests that their cumulative total at the end of a full season has a high probability of being strong, even when factoring in cold spells and rough patches.
Dombrowksi just inherited the best farm system in baseball from basically every ranking system out there, and that is after graduating Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, Swihart, EdRod, and Vaz within the past year. The youth movement that builds a 5-6 year contender is already here. Dombrowski's job is finding the veteran pieces to fill the remaining gaps and finding the correct roles for everyone to play.
Case in point, your argument that if both Swihart and Vazquez are starting quality catchers they can't stay on the same club. Last I checked the Red Sox have no obligation to maximize the value of specific players. They aren't obligated to share their starting quality players with the other clubs. Their only real player personnel obligation is to winning games. So if Swihart is one of the 9 best bats on the club, something that is entirely possible, how doesn't it make sense for the Red Sox to play him at 1B or DH to maximize their value?
Vaz is most likely going to AAA at the start of next season to rehab and work on his offense, a still unfinished element of his game. Hanigan and Swihart very well might lock down the catching duties for all of 2016. We then move into the Swihart and Vazquez era in 2017, which will most likely be David Ortiz' final season regardless of how he's hitting, as the guy will be 41 at that time. If Hanley sticks at 1B or doesn't stick at 1B then is a secondary part of the math, as he can either stay at 1B if he's doing well or move to DH if not. That opens up a position starting in 2018 for Swihart to get ABs, save wear and tear on his body, and get Vaz in behind the plate.
Maybe by then Travis or Benintendi are ready and pushing for that same playing time, but that's a problem well down the road and one or both of them flame out. The road to 2018 is a long one and in the interim the Red Sox have a lot of baseball to play. There is no point preemptively looking to deal one of these two catchers. Maybe they get something of value now, but if only one makes it and they trade the wrong one they've created a big hole the farm doesn't have a ready answer for needlessly. If they both click they'll see far more trade value for a young, cost controlled, established ML regular than they will for even a high pedigree prospect. Better to keep the in-house options, see how they play out, and make a decision when there truly is a logjam as opposed to maximizing some theoretical value that doesn't matter without willing trade partners who happen to have the right pieces.
