Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

Plympton91

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You can make up a billion non-fact based reasons for player performance changes. Doesn't mean any of them are right. Or should be talked about like they matter in the absence of actual proof.
So you think entirely endogenous statistical analyses are “actual proof “?

ROTFL

Probably 50% of reliever performance is small sample size noise. As evidenced by Walden approximating a viable major league pitcher for 2 months before his true lack of talent level took over. But that didn’t stop all the analytic folks here from signing the praises of the mythical Brian Bannister magical analytics bus and projecting those 2 lucky months Walden had onto some analytical breakthrough that had somehow eluded 10 to 15 other sets of managers and pitching coaches Walden had
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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So you think entirely endogenous statistical analyses are “actual proof “?

ROTFL

Probably 50% of reliever performance is small sample size noise. As evidenced by Walden approximating a viable major league pitcher for 2 months before his true lack of talent level took over. But that didn’t stop all the analytic folks here from signing the praises of the mythical Brian Bannister magical analytics bus and projecting those 2 lucky months Walden had onto some analytical breakthrough that had somehow eluded 10 to 15 other sets of managers and pitching coaches Walden had
Could you point to the "praises" being sung about Bannister over Walden, because I don't recall any. I recall excitement about Walden's performance earlier in the year, and expressions of hope that he can sustain it, but I don't remember anyone genuflecting at the alter of Bannister as if he was solely or even partly responsible for it.
 

Byrdbrain

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The problem isn’t “defined roles” the problem is they don’t have enough good arms. They need better pitchers not a “lock down closer”.

Edit: I thought I posted this like 2 days ago during the “Benni” era, I just looked at the thread and saw it was still sitting there. I thought it still worked.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think Banister tied with all pitching coaches in MLB for CY Young wins.
Anyone want to guess how many times a Cy Young award has been won by a pitcher with a former Cy Young winner for a pitching coach?

Two:
Randy Johnson 2001, coached by Bob Welch 1990
Gaylord Perry 1973, coached by Warren Spahn 1957

EDIT: Also, if you ask me to name the top pitching coaches of my lifetime, the first names that come to my mind would be:

Leo Mazzone (90s Braves et al)
Dave Duncan (80s ChiSox, 90s As, et al)
Ray Miller (70s-80s Orioles)
Rube Walker (Seaver-era Mets)

I'm sure there are others that deserve mention, but those four certainly belong in the conversation. And not one of them ever pitched a single inning in the major leagues, much less won a Cy. Two of them weren't pitchers at all.
 
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shaggydog2000

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So you think entirely endogenous statistical analyses are “actual proof “?

ROTFL

Probably 50% of reliever performance is small sample size noise. As evidenced by Walden approximating a viable major league pitcher for 2 months before his true lack of talent level took over. But that didn’t stop all the analytic folks here from signing the praises of the mythical Brian Bannister magical analytics bus and projecting those 2 lucky months Walden had onto some analytical breakthrough that had somehow eluded 10 to 15 other sets of managers and pitching coaches Walden had
What in my posting history makes you think I don't understand small sample size error, reliever volatility, or sampling theory in general?
 

uncannymanny

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So how come it’s not working?

Too many analytics driven decisions, not enough people who’ve pitched at an elite level involved in those decisions if you ask me.

What’s Eckersley and Pedro’s opinion of this strategy? I’d give them a lot more weight than that of what Tommy McStatsguy says to the career backup infielder managing the team his AAAA catcher masquerading as a pitching coach.
How many MVPs did Tito Francona win? The Yankees are being managed by Aaron Boone.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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How many MVPs did Tito Francona win? The Yankees are being managed by Aaron Boone.
There is only one current manager who won an MVP as a player, and his team is the worst in the National League (3rd worst in MLB). Success as a player does not equate to success as a coach/manager.
 

Plympton91

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There is only one current manager who won an MVP as a player, and his team is the worst in the National League (3rd worst in MLB). Success as a player does not equate to success as a coach/manager.
I’m not arguing who is better to make mechanical adjustments to pitcher’s motions or to a hitter’s swing. Or who is better at running regressions of endogenous variables on other endogenous variables. I’m talking about who is best positioned to discuss the mindset and the way lineups and pitchers feed off each other.

I mean, speaking of Pedro, look no further than game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to see how a manager having no confidence in his bullpen can affect the starting pitcher’s ERA. Case closed.

And I know that research into things like “hot hand theory” say though don’t exist. Those studies all are bunk. Endogenous variables regressed on endogenous variables. Use your lyin’ eyes instead of the lies damned lies and statistics.
 

joe dokes

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.I mean, speaking of Pedro, look no further than game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to see how a manager having no confidence in his bullpen can affect the starting pitcher’s ERA. Case closed.
If only Cora had more confidence in the 'pen Chris Sale wouldn't have "affected his ERA" by giving up, for example, 7 runs in the first 3 innings on Opening Day and 5 in the first 4 innings 2 starts later; and Porcello wouldn't have 6.50, 4.70, 7.20 and 5 ERAs in the 1st 4 innings of his starts.
And you *do* have to look further than 1 game 15 years ago before "closing your case", otherwise you are basing a conclusion on a sample size of 1.

I’m talking about who is best positioned to discuss the mindset and the way lineups and pitchers feed off each other.
And as far as Pedro being an "expert on how pitchers feed off each other," he had two of the best seasons in modern baseball history when surrounded by staffs of mostly garbage. He fed off garbage.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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SSS alert. Since moving permanently to the pen, Darwinzon across AAA+MLB: 8 games, 1.08 era 8.1 ip, 2 hits, 1 r, 3bb/15k. K% of 48.8%, BB% of 9.7%.

How great it would be if the move to the pen was what he needed to find the plate.
 

Pitt the Elder

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As much as I'd love to talk about 2003 and thoughts therein, I wanted to say that, in a small sample, I'm really impressed with Darwinzon Hernandez in relief. Since being called back up, he's pitched 4 ip with 1h 2bb 9k 0er. If you include his relief appearances in Pawtucket, he's 8.1ip 1h 3bb 15k 1er. I'm not a doctor, but I think that's good. Couple that with some semblance of the Eovaldi we saw last night (1ip 1h 0bb 1k 0er) and Cora has a lot more options in the late innings.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I'm also high on his potential, but we've got to let word about him get around the majors first - and see if hitters figure something out. Once he's cleared that hurdle, anchors aweigh.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's only 10.1 ip but in the wtf department, Darwinzon Hernandez has a FIP of 1.87 and a WHIP of 1.84.

Also over his last 19 games, 19.2 ip, Josh Taylor has an era of 1.83 with 8bb/25k, .197/.284/.268 against, .283 BAbip.
 

AB in DC

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I just don't know what to make of Eovaldi. I know it's only 4 relief appearances (3 2/3 innings), but I don't think I've ever seen someone with a 12.27 ERA but a FIP so low that it actually registers as negative 0.32
 

BaseballJones

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So moving forward, it looks like we're looking at a bullpen of:

R - Eovaldi
R - Hembree
L - Hernandez
L - Taylor
R - Barnes
R - Workman
R - Walden
R - Brewer

They are counting on Eovaldi rounding into form and Hernandez keeping it up. If they can do that, then Brewer is simply the mop up, long relief guy, and it's ok that he kind of sucks; every team has a guy like that. Bottom line: Price, Porcello, and Sale (especially) need to improve dramatically. And Barnes, Workman, and Eovaldi need to be excellent from here on out.

Hold on to your butts.
 

AB in DC

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Brian Johnson is supposedly going to be activated this week (at least for the double-header), so I suspect he'll replace Brewer sooner than later.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Brian Johnson is supposedly going to be activated this week (at least for the double-header), so I suspect he'll replace Brewer sooner than later.
Well, there's their big trade deadline "acquisition." If only Orsillo was still here so he could crow that BJ's back and he's back big!
 

Coachster

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Before you mentioned Johnson, I was wondering if Brasier would be coming back to replace Brewer. In fact, I don't quite understand why Tilt lost his job and Brewer remained.
 

joe dokes

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Before you mentioned Johnson, I was wondering if Brasier would be coming back to replace Brewer. In fact, I don't quite understand why Tilt lost his job and Brewer remained.
Given how little Brewer has actually pitched lately, I think the idea was for Brasier to go to AAA, pitch regularly and get it together.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Wright is ineligible for the postseason anyways, PEDs.
I believe that was what Lose was intimating with the second sentence.

I get the feeling the whole return of Wright is going to wind up being all sound and fury signifying nothing. I wouldn't be shocked if he winds up hurt again before the season is over. The injuries (thanks John!) and off-field drama may have submarined his career moving forward. I hope not but he hasn't done much since that injury and what he has done that's made headlines has not been good.

I have a stronger feeling he's not going to be back next season.
 

soxhop411

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I fine with the Sox not making any moves.

The reason our BP has been struggling, is because

A: for most of the season our starters have had trouble going deep into games. So it’s no shock that most of our BP is fried.

B: outside of E-rod most of our starters have regressed from last year. Porcello gives you inning, but he also gives up runs by the dozens. Sale has good games and bad games and really has not been consistent this year. In July sale has had 2 starts of 6 innings (out of 5 starts) (the others were 5.2(5ER) 4.2(5ER), 5.1 (6ER)

Price has had a horrid July.

In July, Price has only gone 6IP twice in 6 starts.

In the others he has gone 4.1, 4.0, 5.0, 5.0.

Lack of length from our Starters will kill even the best RP due to workload.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Lack of length from our Starters will kill even the best RP due to workload.
And if they continue to do so, adding new RPs to the mix via trade will just result in burn-out for them as well.

This team rides or dies this year with their starting pitching.
 

BaseballJones

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And if they continue to do so, adding new RPs to the mix via trade will just result in burn-out for them as well.

This team rides or dies this year with their starting pitching.
I know just yesterday (or was it this morning?) I argued that the starters weren't getting deep enough into games, and that was burning out the bullpen. But here's some interesting data.

2018: 162 g, 871.1 ip, 5.1 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.378 ip per game), 3.77 era
2019: 108 g, 567.1 ip, 5.1 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.253 ip per game), 4.77 era

So this year, the starters are going, in base 10 decimal, 0.125 ip shorter per game than they were last year. That's about a third of a third of an inning. In other words, virtually no difference at all. The starters are going one out less every *three* games than they did last year. Over 162 games, that's 18 outs fewer. Hardly anything.

And it didn't seem to be a problem last year, as the starters pitched WELL (if not very deep), and the bullpen also pitched WELL. This year, the starters aren't pitching well, and neither is the bullpen. But it probably - contrary to my own argument from before - isn't due to a lack of innings from the starting pitching. In fact, the average MLB starting pitching staff averages 5.1 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.280 ip per game), so the Sox are basically right at the league average.

In the AL, the average starting pitching staff averages 5.0 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.131 ip per game), so the Sox' starting staff has gone deeper per game than the average AL team.
 

joe dokes

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I know just yesterday (or was it this morning?) I argued that the starters weren't getting deep enough into games, and that was burning out the bullpen. But here's some interesting data.

2018: 162 g, 871.1 ip, 5.1 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.378 ip per game), 3.77 era
2019: 108 g, 567.1 ip, 5.1 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.253 ip per game), 4.77 era

So this year, the starters are going, in base 10 decimal, 0.125 ip shorter per game than they were last year. That's about a third of a third of an inning. In other words, virtually no difference at all. The starters are going one out less every *three* games than they did last year. Over 162 games, that's 18 outs fewer. Hardly anything.

And it didn't seem to be a problem last year, as the starters pitched WELL (if not very deep), and the bullpen also pitched WELL. This year, the starters aren't pitching well, and neither is the bullpen. But it probably - contrary to my own argument from before - isn't due to a lack of innings from the starting pitching. In fact, the average MLB starting pitching staff averages 5.1 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.280 ip per game), so the Sox are basically right at the league average.

In the AL, the average starting pitching staff averages 5.0 ip per game (base 10 decimal: 5.131 ip per game), so the Sox' starting staff has gone deeper per game than the average AL team.
Maybe its starters pitching worse (considerably) and having the entire bullpen exposed to higher-leverage than last year? (I know there's a way to figure that out.)

They also aren't getting a break. Whatever the overall SP average last year, Porcello had 9 games of 7 or more, and 10 more of between 6 and 7. This year, he already has 5 games of fewer than 5 innings.
Price had 5 games less than 5 inings last year; he already has 4 this year.

Maybe this is a cousin of the JBJ consistency argument. If the bullpen gets a 6, 7 or 8 inning start once or twice through the rotation, its better able to absorb the crap without wearing down.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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Cora probably ligthened the starters' workload because at this time last year we had little to play for the rest of the regular season. I'd like to see a deeper analysis broken up by month before making any conclusions.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Cora probably ligthened the starters' workload because at this time last year we had little to play for the rest of the regular season. I'd like to see a deeper analysis broken up by month before making any conclusions.
Kinda. Yankees were only 5 games back at this point last season. They then lost to Baltimore and got swept in a 4 game series by Boston and left 9.5 back.
 

YTF

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Just curious if anyone here is in the know. The Sox have Pedro on staff as a special assistant. Has he been asked to spend any time at all with some of these guy during the season? I know that typically you might not want to do that with a veteran or maybe risk stepping on the toes of the pitching coach, but there is a huge monetary investment in this team. If you have an asset such as Pedro Martinez at your disposal don't you bring him in to at the very least work with someone like Braiser or Johnson in while they are in Pawtucket? Walden, Brewer, Taylor, etc... If he's around and lending a hand to some of the younger guys maybe one or two of the veterans look to pick his brain. I'm amazed whenever I hear Pedro speak about pitching, I can only imagine the knowledge that he can share. Things he might pick up in a pitchers delivery as well as recognizing certain tendencies with hitters. We hear him speak about this stuff all the time on the MLB Network.
 

Delicious Sponge

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Not defending DD here but he did bring in Cashner (which you figure helps the pen by reducing workload), and added Eovaldi and Hernandez. So it’s not like he did *nothing*.

Meanwhile he’s right that if they could get consistent starting pitching they’d be in a much better position. If they added a strong bullpen arm it would help but it wouldn’t solve the problem of Porcello having a 6 ERA, or the other starters being able to consistently give them more than 5+ innings.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Eduardo Rodriguez has been the team's most dependable starter all season. That tells you all you need to know.
Even assuming this is true (more below), what does it tell us that we shouldn't have expected? We knew Edro was a good pitcher. We also knew he had been remarkably consistent over the past few years. We further knew that Porcello seemed to have lost whatever it was he found in 2016, that Sale was rebounding from injury, that we were asking Eovaldi to do something (i.e., pitch a full season's worth of starts) he hadn't done in 4-5 years. Aside from Edro, the only starter without a giant flashing question mark over his head was Price.

Also, how do you quantify "dependable"? I'm having trouble finding indicators that would seem well correlated to that adjective that EdRo is leading the rotation in.
 

YTF

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Even assuming this is true (more below), what does it tell us that we shouldn't have expected? We knew Edro was a good pitcher. We also knew he had been remarkably consistent over the past few years. We further knew that Porcello seemed to have lost whatever it was he found in 2016, that Sale was rebounding from injury, that we were asking Eovaldi to do something (i.e., pitch a full season's worth of starts) he hadn't done in 4-5 years. Aside from Edro, the only starter without a giant flashing question mark over his head was Price.

Also, how do you quantify "dependable"? I'm having trouble finding indicators that would seem well correlated to that adjective that EdRo is leading the rotation in.
Last part first. I'm not a stat guru nor have I been blessed with the greatest baseball mind. I hope that there is still a place here for guys like me. If your looking for quantification, and correlations to adjectives I apologize for failing you. What should we have expected? Given that you haven't made clear what you mean by expected, I'll take the liberty of using the beginning of the season as my point of expectation. For starters I think it's reasonable to expect that Chris Sale would have preformed to a higher level than he has to date. There were no indications going into the season that Eovaldi was not healthy and the team indicates as much considering the extension that they agreed to so I would say it's reasonable to have expected more from him this season. For as badly as Porcello has performed at times the past two seasons, I did not expect him to fail as badly as he has this season. Though he has stumbled a few times, Price has pitch very well this season. Rodriguez IMO is very much the most dependable starter on the club. We have seen pretty much what I expected from him and perhaps even more. As to your point about his consistency I think he's shown improvement last season and into this season. Early in his career there was always the promise of him being an excellent pitcher and now he's found a way to get through 4 innings without approaching 90+ pitches which was often the case in the past. I never questioned Rodriguez' consistency or how good a pitcher he is. My post was a statement as to the rest of the staff this season. So yes, IMO Eduardo Rodriguez has been Boston's most dependable pitcher this season and that tells you all you need to know about why the Red Sox are where they are in the standings.
 
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bsj

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Its fascinating to me how a near universally accepted fact before the deadline, that the bullpen was weak and not postseason worthy, just became a whole lot better among people here because we DIDNT make a move. I can get on board with the argument that the cost outweighed the return, but the bullpen is still a pain point and we cant pretend it isnt regardless of the cherry picked stats we use to justify inaction.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Its fascinating to me how a near universally accepted fact before the deadline, that the bullpen was weak and not postseason worthy, just became a whole lot better among people here because we DIDNT make a move.
Technically speaking, adding Hernández and the return of Eovaldi DID, on paper, improve the bullpen. I've never bought into the notion that a guy coming back from injury around the deadline is a "deadline acquisition," because it's always had the whiff of bullshit to me ("Hey, you know this guy who's been on our payroll all season but hasn't been seen in awhile? Well he's back and we're going to pretend it was something it wasn't to make it sound more exciting!"), but if Hernández is the real deal then he does count as a bullpen upgrade made prior to the deadline. Likewise Taylor, who I know has been up for awhile, because he looks like he has something to offer.

Don't get me wrong, I was very upset about the lack of a move and still kind of am, but I can't argue that the bullpen that has been hit or miss for the last few weeks hasn't had some changes that seem like they're going to be positive additions (and subtractions). If Wright has anything to offer when he comes back, he's an extra arm that can log multiple innings and save the guys that have been overworked due to poor starting performances, maybe even give them enough of a blow here and there to have them be a little fresher for the stretch run. The days of Brewer and Walden coming in for multiple outs and innings in close games should be over, which will hopefully make both more effective at the roles they should be filling. I still would have moved Porcello, even for a bag of balls, and put Josh Smith or another fringe arm in his spot (not like the results would be much worse) and slowly work Eovaldi back into the rotation just in time for, hopefully, a playoff run, but it's a moot point now with no more options to bring in players via a trade and therefore no more need for salary relief.

Maybe they sign someone off the scrap heap this month once teams have DFA'd who their going to DFA to make room for new acquisitions of their own and there's a diamond in the rough, but so long as the starting pitching continues to average 5 innings or less per start (excluding Edro), the bullpen is going to continue to be leaned on heavily and that's a recipe for disaster for any team, defending champs or not.

I realize it's the year after a World Series title and everyone gets extra rope, but Dana LeVangie and whomever the bullpen coach are should be preparing to look for new jobs in the off-season with the way this season has gone. Many of the issues may be chalked up to Cora's now-clearly-flawed spring training plan but certainly not all. To me, that's on the pitching coaches and, for that reason, they're out he door at the end of the season barring another repeat or deep playoff run with much better pitching performances.
 

nvalvo

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Its fascinating to me how a near universally accepted fact before the deadline, that the bullpen was weak and not postseason worthy, just became a whole lot better among people here because we DIDNT make a move. I can get on board with the argument that the cost outweighed the return, but the bullpen is still a pain point and we cant pretend it isnt regardless of the cherry picked stats we use to justify inaction.
I hear you, but I don't know if that's actually what's happening for everybody.

Once Stroman was dealt — for a very middling prospect return — I assumed we would be able to get an impact reliever with our bad-but-improving farm system. I thought Dalbec-Chatham-and-Houck-for-Díaz was the sort of deal we'd see, and I thought it would make a lot of sense for both sides. But as the deals came in on deadline day, that transaction started to look like an outlier.

I wanted one of the SF relievers like Smith or Watson or Dyson. But while trading Dalbec for four years of Díaz made sense (even if his arb awards are likely to be bonkers because of all the saves he accrued in Seattle), trading him for two months of Tony Watson was more of a coin flip, and I wouldn't be shocked if Dombrowski turned down a deal of that kind.

The problem is that we only have five or six players who are even plausible future big leaguers and above high-A.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Its fascinating to me how a near universally accepted fact before the deadline, that the bullpen was weak and not postseason worthy, just became a whole lot better among people here because we DIDNT make a move. I can get on board with the argument that the cost outweighed the return, but the bullpen is still a pain point and we cant pretend it isnt regardless of the cherry picked stats we use to justify inaction.
They didn't make a move, but the bullpen isn't the same. Some of it is Darwinzon Hernandez who has looked really good in a relief role going back to last year when he started to get really noticed in the AFL. I'm not convinced he's ready yet but I also wouldn't be surprised if he was lights out for the rest of the season either. I'd have traded him for Diaz but I think Darwinzon has a 5-10% of getting to that level himself. And I think he's a little bump in control/command away from doing so.

Since moving to the pen, his combined line in AAA/MLB is 11 games, 0.84 era, 2.53 RA/9, 10.2 ip, 4h, 3r/1er, 5bb/20k. Hitters slashing .111/.238/.167 on a .250 BAbip. 11.9% BB%, 47.6% K%, 0.0% HR%. He's always going to walk a ton and an 11.9% BB% is roughly 4-5 BB/9. If he's at that level though, he looks an awful lot like a left handed Matt Barnes. This is where I point out that Darwinzon's career HR% in the minors is 0.77% against 1817 batters. Well below average.

These are all SSS, but if I'm pointing out the positive so far, here's the negative.
This year combined in all levels vs RHB: .270/.434/.433, .442 BAbip. 183 BF, 37bb/60k
This year combined in all levels vs LHB: .132/.283/.246, .214 BAbip. 138 BF, 21bb/44k

vs MLB RHB: .267/.436/.367, .533 BAbip
vs MLB LHB: .125/.176/.250, .333 BAbip

Those lines include his 2 games prior to his most recent call up though so I'm not sure how his splits have looked in just the pen. Since hitters are 4/36 in that time period with 5 walks and a HBP in 42 PA, I'm guessing he's been pretty lights out even against RHB. He'll have to prove he can get righties out on a consistent basis though.

Another part of it is Josh Taylor. SSS again, but when talking about bullpen arms, i'ts kind of unavoidable. He goes on a 5 game stretch earlier in the year: 6.1 ip, 1 hit, Or, 1bb/12k vs 21 BF. Before that he was getting lit up so you really can't get excited about those 5 games and no one really thinks he's much of an option at all. That 5 game stretch is now up to 21 games, 2.18 era, 20.2 ip, 15 hits, 6r/5er, 8bb/27k vs B2 BF. Still a small sample size but big enough a sample size where (at least for now) he's an option.

Yet another part is Eovaldi and Barnes returning back to form in July (10 g, 0.00 era, 8.0 ip, 3 hits, Or, 3bb/15k. .111/.200/.148 against),

Long winded way of saying things can change over the course of a week or two. In another week or two, maybe Darwinzon and Taylor fall back down to earth and Eovaldi is back on the DL. Right now though, I think our pen looks better than it did a month ago.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I thought Dalbec-Chatham-and-Houck-for-Díaz was the sort of deal we'd see, and I thought it would make a lot of sense for both sides. But as the deals came in on deadline day, that transaction started to look like an outlier.
I'd have absolutely loved that trade. I'd have been willing to do Dalbec+Hernandez but being able to keep Hernandez while adding Diaz would be awesome. I don't really like Houck at all though. He doesn't strike guys out and gives up a lot of free passes.
 

joe dokes

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I realize it's the year after a World Series title and everyone gets extra rope, but Dana LeVangie and whomever the bullpen coach are should be preparing to look for new jobs in the off-season with the way this season has gone.
I'd hate to see what the regular length of rope looks like.
Do you measure it in Howsers or Berras?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Last part first. I'm not a stat guru nor have I been blessed with the greatest baseball mind. I hope that there is still a place here for guys like me. If your looking for quantification, and correlations to adjectives I apologize for failing you.
I'm not a stat guru either, I just think when you say "So-and-so has been our most dependable pitcher all season", and you don't provide evidence to back that up--unless you honestly think it's glaringly obvious--you should expect people to challenge you on it.
 

Harry Hooper

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Jan 4, 2002
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To look into this dependability notion, just for kicks I thought I would look at each starter's average game score and also how often they didn't pitch at least 5 innings.To date, we have Sale, Porcello, and Rodriguez with 22 starts, and Price with 20.

Average Game Score (per ESPN)
Sale = 59.4
Price = 53.6
Rodriguez = 52.7
Porcello = 48.0

Sale has 3 starts under 5 IP, with 1 start under 4 IP
Rodriguez has 4 starts under 5 IP, with 1 start under 4 IP {Note: these 4 starts were all before May 1}
Price has 4 starts under 5 IP, with 2 starts under 2 IP
Porcello has 5 starts under 5 IP, with 2 starts under 3 IP


Given the funky ST and start to the season for these starters, looking at just each pitcher's most recent 10 starts:

Average Game Score (per ESPN)
Sale = 63.0
Price = 48.9
Rodriguez = 56.5
Porcello = 48.4

Sale has 1 start under 5 IP
Price has 3 starts under 5 IP
Rodriguez has 0 starts under 5 IP
Porcello has 1 start under 5 IP {London disaster 0.1 IP}