Brayan Bello, SP

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
41479
6'1
170 lbs
5/17/99
IFA



He's been a binky of mine for awhile. He added considerable velocity in 2019 and pitched much better in the 2nd half. This year, he's off to another great start. I think he's on the verge of climbing up the ranks in a hurry but his size could possibly limit him to a bullpen role.

He just turned 22 and is repeating the year in Greenville, though that makes some sense given his age and the time off.

Bello's last 10 starts in 2019: 10 games, 3.00 era, 54.0 ip, 9bb/59k, .235/.280/.363 against. 26.8% K rate, 4.1% BB rate. His best start of the year being a 6.0 ip, 5 hit, 0r/0er, 0bb/13k masterpiece.

So far this season, in 4 starts: 2.11 era, 21.1 ip, 4bb/30k. .192/.234/.274 38.9% K rate, 5.2% bb rate.


Last 75.1 ip, he has 13bb/89k. That's ridiculous.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
2021 Game Logs
5.2 ip, 4 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/3k. 76 pitches, 46 strikes.
5.2 ip, 2 hits, 1r/er, 2bb/10k. 89 pitches, 56 strikes.
5.0 ip, 6 hits, 2r/2er, 1bb/10k. 89 pitches, 57 strikes.
5.0 ip, 2 hits, 1r/1er, 0bb/7k. 60 pitches, 43 strikes.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Last start was a few days ago
5.0 ip, 7 hits, 4r, 2 er, 3bb/6k, 2 HRA. 82 pitches, 52 strikes.

To date: 13.0% Strikes looking, 18.0% strikes swinging, 55% GB ratio, 10% LD. Hitters are slashing .223/.277/.351 in 101 PA with a .327 BAbip.
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
16,339
Boston, MA
Wow, that’s a helluva line. The K/BB ratio really stands out, especially at an age when a lot of high-K rate pitchers can also have trouble harnessing raw stuff.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Sox prospects updated their rankings and Bello jumped from 24 to 9.

He was also named their pitcher of the month for May.

Funny thing is, his BAbip against right now is .328, so he has been somewhat unlucky. On the year, hitters are slashing .217/.262/.322. 36.9% K rate, 5.7% BB rate.

He's always been a control pitcher, having gone into 2021 with a 6.2% BB rate against 779 batters. His K rate was 24.7%.

Anyway, going back to the 2nd half of 2019: 16 games, 2.73 era, 85.2 ip, 73 hits, 16bb/104k, 6 HRA. Hitters are slashing .229/.272/.348 with a .316 BAbip during that time, 342 Batters faced.

30.4% K rate, 4.7% BB rate. 1.8% HR rate. 6.5:1 K/BB ratio.

Well deserved promotion.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
In his 2nd AA start

5 ip, 2 hits, 1r/1er, 1 HRA, 1bb/10k. 80 pitches, 51 strikes. 12 looking, 13 swinging. 4 Ground outs, 3 Pop outs.

10 of the 11 strikeouts were via swinging.

He's going to be in the Red Sox top 5 by the end of the year health permitting. He's the best pitching prospect in the sox system. There's some questions as to if his frame will hold up in a SP role but man... he's nasty.
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
3,221
Bangkok
What is his pitch mix and fastball velocity?
From soxprospects and Twitter: fastball sits at 95, gets up to 98. Has hit 100mph before.

Secondary is the change up. Slider is in development.

Given how often he’s striking out guys, I imagine the change up is either really good or the slider has developed well from last year.

The fastball velocity is what is exciting, he has starter potential for sure.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
941
From soxprospects and Twitter: fastball sits at 95, gets up to 98. Has hit 100mph before.

Secondary is the change up. Slider is in development.

Given how often he’s striking out guys, I imagine the change up is either really good or the slider has developed well from last year.

The fastball velocity is what is exciting, he has starter potential for sure.
Thanks. Here is a typically ramped up quote from Gammons about his change up from a month ago: "Red Sox think the fastest rising pitcher in organization is 22-yr. old RH Bryan Bello @ Greenville. One front office official says "Bello was up to 97 with the best changeup I ever seen, at least since Pedro."
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,904
Was at the Portland game tonight and Bello really struggled. Such a bummer because I was pumped to see him. Live stuff but couldn’t harness it. Kid has worlds of potential.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,546
Was at the Portland game tonight and Bello really struggled. Such a bummer because I was pumped to see him. Live stuff but couldn’t harness it. Kid has worlds of potential.
You got to see Dermis Garcia hit one 474? Jealous.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
2.0 ip, 1 hit, 0r, 1bb/3k yesterday. 35 pitches, 23 strikes.

Left for non injury related reasons.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
7/17: 4.2 ip, 5 hits, 4r/4er. 1bb/9k. 1 HRA. 96 pitches, 20 whiffs.
7/23: 1.0 ip, 3 hits, 2r/2er, 1k. 17 pitches, 1 whiiff
7/28: 4.2 ip, 5 hits, 2r/2er, 2bb/10k. 95 pitches, 19 whiffs
8/03: 5.2 ip, 6 hits, 4r/4er, 2bb/5k. 92 pitches, 11 whiffs.
8/08: 5.1 ip, 5 hits, 4r/4er, 3bb/11k. 1 HRA, 92 pitches 21 whiffs.

Mixed bag in AA so far, with some bad luck. 5.09 era, 39.0 ip, 38 hits, 16bb/58k. .257/.333/.392 against with a .385 BAbip.
33.9% K% rate, 9.4% BB% rate. Still striking guys out at a ridiculous rate.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,904
Soxprospects has him as a back-end starter or reliever. Seems like a rather conservative opinion?
I saw him last year in Portland and he was terrible. I was so bummed, as I had been incredibly excited to see him pitch. But that start aside, yeah I think he's going to be a really good pitcher for the Sox. He has tremendous stuff and if he's learned to locate better, he can be absolutely nasty.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I saw him last year in Portland and he was terrible. I was so bummed, as I had been incredibly excited to see him pitch. But that start aside, yeah I think he's going to be a really good pitcher for the Sox. He has tremendous stuff and if he's learned to locate better, he can be absolutely nasty.
Right? I suppose their projections aren't ceilings, maybe cautious "he should at least be x" guesses.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,773
Right? I suppose their projections aren't ceilings, maybe cautious "he should at least be x" guesses.
I think over the years as the SP folks have gotten older and wiser and done their own scouting, etc, they’ve become more conservative and realistic in their projections.

For example they used to have an MLB ceiling comp for every prospect and it would result in things like comparing teenage IFAs Oscar Tejeda and Engel Beltre to guys like Alfonso Soriano and Barry Bonds. So I think they take much more care now knowing that even if everything goes right it’s still only a small chance of hitting ceilings.
 

PrometheusWakefield

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2009
10,460
Boston, MA
And in addition to strikeouts and walks, the man somehow has a 66.7% GB% in AAA after a 62.5% GB% in AA. Either figure would make him the second most extreme GB pitcher among qualified pitchers in MLB (to Framber Valdez).

Is this a fluke or is there something he's doing to get those extreme GB results?
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,988
And in addition to strikeouts and walks, the man somehow has a 66.7% GB% in AAA after a 62.5% GB% in AA. Either figure would make him the second most extreme GB pitcher among qualified pitchers in MLB (to Framber Valdez).

Is this a fluke or is there something he's doing to get those extreme GB results?
Alex Speier suggests that his two-seamer has improved drastically this season:

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1539442804237160448?s=20&t=pZ9dmq06NW8hAofCy7Ihnw


It sure helps when you’re maintaining 97 mph deep in games and have a great change-up in your back pocket.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
And in addition to strikeouts and walks, the man somehow has a 66.7% GB% in AAA after a 62.5% GB% in AA. Either figure would make him the second most extreme GB pitcher among qualified pitchers in MLB (to Framber Valdez).

Is this a fluke or is there something he's doing to get those extreme GB results?
I've seen him twice this year and while I haven't noticed anything out of the norm, he looks much improved and refined this year over 2019 and 2021, when he looked like a guy learning how to pitch with the newly added velocity. I also have awful vision.

BBRef (Fangraphs is similar)

2018: 52% GB
2019: 48% GB
2021: 48% GB
2022: 65% GB

Fan Graphs Batted Ball profile
2018: 82 GB/52 FB/28 LD
2019: 162 GB/102FB/86 LD
2021: 110 GB/71FB/47 LD
2022: 107 GB/34FB/24LD

13 games this year, in order
4gb/5fb
6/3
8/6
7/3
11/6
10/5
---- AAA
5/9
6/5
9/4
12/1
9/3
8/4
13/5

I'd guess it's not a fluke and just brought on by being better.

There is this though, Infield fly balls.
2018: 18
2019: 26
2021: 11
2022: 3

That's not equal playing time but even factoring in that, it's close to a 40% decline from 2019 to 2021, and roughly a 50% from 2021 to 2022.