Brayan Bello signed to a 6 year, $55 million extension

Red(s)HawksFan

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Wait, this can't be right. I thought they weren't giving out long contracts. :eyeroll:

But seriously, it's hard to see this as anything but good. Bello has the potential to be special as he matures.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Wait, this can't be right. I thought they weren't giving out long contracts. :eyeroll:

But seriously, it's hard to see this as anything but good. Bello has the potential to be special as he matures.
The downside is giving away 5 cost controlled years. That is a lot. Some would say that the way you win right now is to build your team with some WAR building blocks in free agency and then try to layer on cost controlled players. Bello is maximum value right now, because he's so cheap for 5 years and the Sox would be giving that away for something 6 years down the line.

Would have to see the terms but the cost of doing this is the delta between what they would pay him for 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 under a restructure and what they would have paid over those 5 years. I assume it would be something around $30 or $40 million. So, you're buying 2028-203X for $30 or $40 million. Could be a good deal, could be a bad deal. Risk on both sides.

I think with this kind of stuff, it's like investing. There's value in diversification. So, I'm for it. it's good to have some of these in your portfolio.
 

santadevil

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I hope this happens. He became my new guy to follow last year

I know it's unrealistic, but he reminds me of Pedro and if he can get to even 60% of that, he'd be a really good pitcher
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I can't be the only person that sees the name Brayan Bello and thinks of Tracy Morgan, right?
 

chrisfont9

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I can't be the only person that sees the name Brayan Bello and thinks of Tracy Morgan, right?
Was this one of his bits? Not remembering that.

The downside is giving away 5 cost controlled years. That is a lot. Some would say that the way you win right now is to build your team with some WAR building blocks in free agency and then try to layer on cost controlled players. Bello is maximum value right now, because he's so cheap for 5 years and the Sox would be giving that away for something 6 years down the line.
Not that they are all into performative contracting, but paying Bello after they paid Devers is a bit of performance for other key players, no? They need to correct the impression that they don't value anyone, even their own internally-developed guys, long term. They do (apparently), they're just picky about it. It's a good precedent from that standpoint, which is kinda sorta real and not just PR. And on the more real side of things, it's building a roster foundation long term. That's worth some extra $$. That's what the good teams are doing (e.g. Braves).

The flipside is that if you aren't doing it, then you are ruthlessly exploiting the CBA, and nobody is taking a dime less than the max from you.
 

Rovin Romine

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The downside is giving away 5 cost controlled years. That is a lot. Some would say that the way you win right now is to build your team with some WAR building blocks in free agency and then try to layer on cost controlled players. Bello is maximum value right now, because he's so cheap for 5 years and the Sox would be giving that away for something 6 years down the line.

Would have to see the terms but the cost of doing this is the delta between what they would pay him for 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028 under a restructure and what they would have paid over those 5 years. I assume it would be something around $30 or $40 million. So, you're buying 2028-203X for $30 or $40 million. Could be a good deal, could be a bad deal. Risk on both sides.

I think with this kind of stuff, it's like investing. There's value in diversification. So, I'm for it. it's good to have some of these in your portfolio.
Far less risk on the player's side.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Very curious to see what this looks like. Buying out 5 years is a lot.

In general, love moves that lock up young talent before free agency.
 

Ale Xander

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Yay we developed a pitcher and signed him to an extension.
it can be done

But this is 1, maybe 2, years early
 

Youkilis vs Wild

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If they could get Bello and Casas locked up -- the latter, I realize, does not seem very close -- I would consider that a successful offseason despite everything.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yay we developed a pitcher and signed him to an extension.
it can be done

But this is 1, maybe 2, years early
Probably. I am assuming Bailey got his hands on him and gave a stamp of approval on the conviction Bello will take a significant step forward.

It just depends on the terms. I am assuming it's 2 additional years that are options. But let's see
 

moondog80

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Was this one of his bits? Not remembering that.


Not that they are all into performative contracting, but paying Bello after they paid Devers is a bit of performance for other key players, no? They need to correct the impression that they don't value anyone, even their own internally-developed guys, long term. They do (apparently), they're just picky about it. It's a good precedent from that standpoint, which is kinda sorta real and not just PR. And on the more real side of things, it's building a roster foundation long term. That's worth some extra $$. That's what the good teams are doing (e.g. Braves).

The flipside is that if you aren't doing it, then you are ruthlessly exploiting the CBA, and nobody is taking a dime less than the max from you.

I get what you're saying, but I also think the same thing when I hear that an NBA team made a move to curry favor with a particular agent. I'd like to have an example where a player took a deal that he otherwise would not have because the GM did some other guy a solid a few years earlier.

Anyway, the terms will probably be favorable, especially if it involves a pay bump this year. May as well tack some of the cost onto this year's payroll that would have otherwise gone unspent.
 
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chrisfont9

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I get what you're saying, but I also think the same thing when I hear that an NBA team made a move to curry favor with a particular agent. I'd like to have an example where a player took a deal that he otherwise would not have because the GM did some other guy a solid a few years earlier.
Well, it's purely speculative from the outside, but we have heard that there is a bit of a label being applied to the Sox by agents and players -- not serious, no clear direction, negative environment. Yes, in the end the negotiations almost always come down to the top dollar for guys outside the org, but I'm suggesting they need their image to be positive so they get in the room. And then, with players in their own system, I think the effect is much more tangible as far as who will be willing to talk extension, outside of a full market, before testing free agency.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I want to see the terms, but overall I like the idea and hope this gets done.

Give him "certain earnings" for the next 5 seasons to hopefully have team control extend through 2029 and 2030.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Would 8 years, 100M do it? Maybe 120?
If he went year to year instead of doing the extension, he's probably looking at somewhere in the $30-40M range for the next 5 years (730K, 800K, 5M, 10M, 16M estimating conservatively). So 8/100 would mean the last three years are in the neighborhood of $20-23M each. 8/120 would break down to $27-30M each.

That sounds like a reasonable range to expect.
 

moondog80

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I don't think I would commit right now to 3 years at 27-30 mil for Bello from 2029-2031. Too far into the future, too much can go wrong. Hopefully it's less than that.
 

dynomite

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I don’t see a lot of downside here, good move by the Sox. Like it a lot.
Agreed. It feels like this is what well-run franchises with spending limits do (see: Braves, Guardians, Cardinals) and was hoped for by many on this board all offseason.

It also represents a course correction from what went wrong after 2018, which we don't need to rehash.

If he went year to year instead of doing the extension, he's probably looking at somewhere in the $30-40M range for the next 5 years (730K, 800K, 5M, 10M, 16M estimating conservatively). So 8/100 would mean the last three years are in the neighborhood of $20-23M each. 8/120 would break down to $27-30M each.

That sounds like a reasonable range to expect.
That's helpful.
 
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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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If he went year to year instead of doing the extension, he's probably looking at somewhere in the $30-40M range for the next 5 years (730K, 800K, 5M, 10M, 16M estimating conservatively). So 8/100 would mean the last three years are in the neighborhood of $20-23M each. 8/120 would break down to $27-30M each.

That sounds like a reasonable range to expect.
This is good -- yeah, I was wondering what a reasonable trajectory for A1-A3 would look like.
 

Rovin Romine

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I just want to note that Sox control Bello for the 2024 season plus 25, 26, 27, 28. That corresponds to his age 25 year, through age 29. So in buying out FA years, they'd start with his age 30 year, plus whatever else.

In some ways he's kind of not the pitcher you want to do this with, since you've already got his prime physical years. Unless you're only committing to purchasing an additional 1-2 years. Or unless you're convinced he will beat the mid-30s decline/injury risk, and I'm not sure how they could ever project that.
 

moondog80

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I just want to note that Sox control Bello for the 2024 season plus 25, 26, 27, 28. That corresponds to his age 25 year, through age 29. So in buying out FA years, they'd start with his age 30 year, plus whatever else.

In some ways he's kind of not the pitcher you want to do this with, since you've already got his prime physical years. Unless you're only committing to purchasing an additional 1-2 years. Or unless you're convinced he will beat the mid-30s decline/injury risk, and I'm not sure how they could ever project that.
I'm cautiously optimistic that the terms are favorable enough for the Sox where the deal makes sense, particularly if taking part of the tax hit this year (in a year where they weren't going to spend to the tax anyway) lowers the cost in future years. But anyone who thinks this a slam dunk win no matter what, with no downside, is very mistaken.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think the team would be fine with paying for his 30-33 years on the back end of a deal. It’s more of a concern when those are the front end of a deal and you have to pay for 35-38, I think.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I just want to note that Sox control Bello for the 2024 season plus 25, 26, 27, 28. That corresponds to his age 25 year, through age 29. So in buying out FA years, they'd start with his age 30 year, plus whatever else.

In some ways he's kind of not the pitcher you want to do this with, since you've already got his prime physical years. Unless you're only committing to purchasing an additional 1-2 years. Or unless you're convinced he will beat the mid-30s decline/injury risk, and I'm not sure how they could ever project that.
I can't imagine they're looking to buy out more than three years of free agency with an extension now. Maybe they'll try to get more with an option year or two at the end, but in terms of guaranteed years, three is likely the ceiling.

If he's not the pitcher you do this with though, who is? The chances of having a pitcher younger than Bello that you want to extend like this seem pretty small.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Rovin Romine

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I can't imagine they're looking to buy out more than three years of free agency with an extension now. Maybe they'll try to get more with an option year or two at the end, but in terms of guaranteed years, three is likely the ceiling.

If he's not the pitcher you do this with though, who is? The chances of having a pitcher younger than Bello that you want to extend like this seem pretty small.
Well, we'll see what the particulars are - those comp contracts look very reasonable.
 

zenax

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I'd prefer to see a bit more of Bello's pitching at the MLB level before getting carried away with a long-term contract.
 

nattysez

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I'd prefer to see a bit more of Bello's pitching at the MLB level before getting carried away with a long-term contract.
That's not how any of this works. You can't get the cheap long-term deal without taking some risk.
 

opes

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This is a great idea. Buying out those 4-5 years for $30-40 million. If he pitches awesome, it would be financially better with this extended contract verses year by year arbitration contracts. We should be doing these contracts with our young arms.
Or we could find an 4.43 average inning eater and give him a 2/38 mil contract.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I doubt his inclusion in the advertising has much to do with the contract stuff. He's there because he's a Dominican-born player on one of the two participating teams. I imagine Devers is featured prominently as well. Ironically, it doesn't appear that Bello is slated to pitch in either game (Crawford and Whitlock are the listed probables).

Though it would make really good press to announce the new deal as part of the D.R. weekend.
 

Farty Barrett

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I doubt his inclusion in the advertising has much to do with the contract stuff. He's there because he's a Dominican-born player on one of the two participating teams. I imagine Devers is featured prominently as well. Ironically, it doesn't appear that Bello is slated to pitch in either game (Crawford and Whitlock are the listed probables).

Though it would make really good press to announce the new deal as part of the D.R. weekend.
If you haven’t already seen these, check out this Day In The Life with Bello in the DR and an All Access of him walking around the Dominican community around Boston.

A Day In The Life

Red Sox All Access

Bello shines as much as anyone on the roster. Extending him is a great move. Boston has been a beloved place for Dominican baseball fans, and rightfully so. Maybe Soto is watching closely?
 

richgedman'sghost

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Yay we developed a pitcher and signed him to an extension.
it can be done

But this is 1, maybe 2, years early
No matter what the Red Sox ownership does they get screwed over by fans like you. I don't mean you personally of course, just your way of thinking. Your perspective is the same type of thinking that was blasting the Red Sox for not signing Mookie after his first or second year. Now that the Red Sox could possibly sign a home grown star to a deal, you complain that the deal is too early. You can't have it both ways.
 

BaseballJones

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These extensions are great if they manage to buy a few years after he'd be a free agent. Not so much if it only buys out one year. Let's hope it's the former.