Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game
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86spike said:
I agree this will be the biggest chess match and this is an excellent analysis. Assuming for the moment that Harris is out, I agree with you that Bailey will stay in the slot -- makes sense given his age and skill set, and the Pats' strength there. The flip side of Harris is if Dobson will be ready this week. No reason to assume he will be, but without an X receiver like him the Pats will have a much tougher time taking advantage of the loss of Harris. Collie or Thompkins just won't be scaring the Broncos.
RedOctober3829 said:
If memory serves they're 6th overall against the run. Granted they may be worse than that now with Wolfe and Vickerson out, but they looked awfully stout yesterday. I think this is the beauty of BB's game specific game-planning. After weeks of a run heavy attack, I expect the Pats to pass a ton against the Broncos and take advantage of their relatively weak pass defense -- with the variables of Harris/Dobson's health impacting that, of course.
And so Harris is out. That's good news for Brady, the first game turned quite a bit on DRC's injury, I thought, and Harris is better than DRC. Not to give up the self-pity party, but the Broncos really are competing with the Pats on the injury bug.
I bring up the question because of Denver's undersized linebackers. The Patriots have been mauling people at the line of scrimmage ever since the Baltimore game. Can they keep it up this week?86spike said:
If Ryan Allen can't punt, who do they bring in? Kluwe seems like too much of a distraction.Tony C said:
shoosh77 wrote:
http://thesidelinevi...-agents-offense
EDIT: Typos
Here is a list of free agents. Scroll down for punters. Other than Kluwe no names jump out.
http://thesidelinevi...-agents-offense
EDIT: Typos
RedOctober3829 said:
If Denver does not completely sell out against the run, I will be stunned.
Start with Del Rio, Fox and the grounding of the vast majority of coaches in conventional wisdom -- *Look what happen Saturday and against Buffalo, and BTW we gotta be physical!* They will attempt to be stout and hope that a couple of scores can take the Pats out of this, when they can then concentrate on the pass.
But in this case, conventional wisdom may be wisdom nonetheless. It's Rodderick's point -- who scares you in our WR corps? It may well be thet the Pats have a better chance of breaking off an 80-yard run than an 80-yard pass. Why not force the Pats to dink and dunk their way down the field?
If I'm the Pats, I'm throwing on 1st down a lot.
I think they had Malone in for a workout this year, and maybe one other guy on that list. Can't remember who.
mascho said:
IIRC they worked out Malone in November, as part of the usual CYA situation of knowing of a spare punter around should one get hurt.
Allen is left-footed, so I might think they'll go for another one if necessary.
EDIT: Dammit t4w
Tony C said:
fuck me.
NE still leads the Worst Injuries competition, but Denver is about 80% of the way to a tie with them.
The defense is now down 4 of our most important players (Kevin Vickerson, Von Miller, Rahim Moore, Chris Harris) and Bailey is contributing less than expected/hoped for. That's nearly half the starters.
The offense suffered on the O-Line (Manny Ramirez is our 3rd string Center after Koppen and Walton, losing Ryan Clady at LT was about as bad as losing anyone other than Manning).
When all is said and done, it's a testament to both these teams that they have been able to rise above the injuries and make the most of their depth. NE has had it worse, but not that much worse.
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4752741/source-patriots-have-six-in-for-workouts
Shawn Powell was the other punter they had in. I'm not sure if either he or Malone is a lefty?
Shawn Powell was the other punter they had in. I'm not sure if either he or Malone is a lefty?
dcmissle said:
It's part of the reason why I expect the Pats to come out throwing -- you're spot on that old school NFL guys like Fox and Del Rio will prep like hell for the run after what the Pats have done. Add in Broncos injuries in the secondary and their best pass rusher, and this game will be on Brady's shoulders. And not to overhype the Pats' receivers -- their limitations are obvious and losing both Gronk and Hernandez is disastrous -- but they're not terrible, either. Edelman and Amendola are both totally legit NFL receivers with good hands and moves, albeit without tremendous speed or height. Dobson is the guy I'll be looking for most keenly...he really seemed to be emerging before his injury, and if he can play he adds a needed dimension.
The absence of speed and size -- relatively speaking, with 4 teams left -- is the cock punch because even if we do navigate down the field, there is a damn good chance of limiting the damage to 3 points. Among the reasons the Indy defense is a joke.
Can't run if you are behind by two touchdowns or more.
Particularly in the second half.
Defense has to play well and keep us in the game for the first three quarters.
They have kept games close most of the year and they have to do so again.
This means making Manning uncomfortable without blitzing to much.
I think they will try and come out and run on us to set up play action.
Must stop Moreno early.
We can't get behind by 24 points early in this one like the last time... cause if we do kiss the ground and pound goodbye.
Particularly in the second half.
Defense has to play well and keep us in the game for the first three quarters.
They have kept games close most of the year and they have to do so again.
This means making Manning uncomfortable without blitzing to much.
I think they will try and come out and run on us to set up play action.
Must stop Moreno early.
We can't get behind by 24 points early in this one like the last time... cause if we do kiss the ground and pound goodbye.
I think you may be right. But I think/feel like the Patriots will be able to move the ball on the ground or through the air but we really, really need touchdowns not field goals so that's where I think being able to bulldoze Denver with the run will help.Tony C said:
86spike said:
While both NFC teams are extremely healthy. SEA notable injuries: Harvin, Rice; SF notable injuries: Culliver, Manningham.
Forgive the naiveté, but does DVOA account for the opposition being behind against Denver and needing to pass? Wouldn't that circumstance help create the statistical impression of stout run D?MarcSullivaFan said:
I agree with you that Denver will be prepared for the run, but if the Pats O-line continues to dominate the line of scrimmage it won't matter. Indy prepared for it and couldn't stop it(yes I know Denver is better).dcmissle said:
As far as 1st down passing, you are playing with fire. Incompletions mean 2nd and 10 and the clock stopped. Mix it up between run and pass is what id do.
If they sell out against the run, that's ok. Keep with the run game and pop one deep in play action.
86spike said:
I forgot Wolfe on the list of the missing Defensive players. So we're down 5 starters. Ugly.
I don't think so. It's adjusted value over average on a play by play basis--bulk yardage isn't determinative. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methodscatomatic said:
Im with dcmissle, the Pats will throw on first down a lot more than they did the last few weeks. By my (unofficial) count, the Pats ran the ball on 20 out of 26 first downs against the Colts, 20 for 28 against the Bills, and 21 for 30 against the Ravens. Id expect that number to be 50/50 or so this Sunday.
It seems likely Champ Bailey will give Edelman a hard time and DRC may clamp down Amendola. Whatever is up with Thompkins is a big deal.
Otherwise we are left with Vereen on screens or linebackers, and he has been terribly inconsistent lately. One of those two needs to step up.
Otherwise we are left with Vereen on screens or linebackers, and he has been terribly inconsistent lately. One of those two needs to step up.
Reggie's Racquet said:
Why?
When the Pats running game is clicking they tend to rip off gains in 7+ yard chunks. How's that any different than bleeding a D to death with the short passing game? It's a mistake for teams to abandon the run too early, and it happens in the NFL far too much.
Two scores early-ish in the 2nd half is nothing,
Norm Siebern said:
I'm guessing this is news to Bob Kraft, being an uber NFL power broker and most influential owner on the media committee.
A few quick thoughts after catching up with most of this thread:
Offense
I am strongly on the side of RedOctober that the offense needs to really commit to the run and attempt to impose our will there, mainly because of the weakness of our red zone passing offense without Gronk. The most amazing thing about the Indy game was that we hardly needed to throw in the ball in the red zone at all. We had 1st downs at the 2, 7, 12, 5, and 3 on our five red zone possessions and we threw the ball once. I can't see us winning this game without being efficient in the red zone and I think our best chance of doing that is if we can win in the running game.
If Denver sells out to stop the run, then hit them with play action and misdirection. But I really hope McDaniels doesn't out think himself, get too caught up in the chess match aspect of things, and go air-heavy. At some level, we have to just to line up and stay, "We're going to make this a physical war at the LoS and lets see if you can hold up."
Defense
I haven't felt this good about our defense against a Peyton Manning offense since 2004. Nobody is going to stop that Denver offense completely but, with the secondary finally healthy and Collins' emergence, we really have the players to match up in coverage, maybe more than any other team in the league except Seattle. The key against Peyton is always to have a good disguise, to keep changing up coverages, and to limit the damage downfield. I think we're well equipped to do that. We can keep alternating whether Hightower, Collins, or neither rushes. We can drop Nink or even Jones into coverage on occasion (as we did a few times against Indy). We can alternate man and zone and hybrid coverages. Two interesting personnel decisions are at nickel and safety. Arrington got benched for Ryan near the end of the first half against Indy and didn't see the field again. I like Ryan better as a coverage player overall but Arrington's familiarity with Welker might get him the nod. I'm also interested to see what BB does at safety - Steve Gregory played the whole game against Indianapolis, except for a few snaps that went to Tavon Wilson, but I could see Duron Harmon getting more run against Denver.
Coaching
Aside from what has already been covered, I just hope that BB is aggressive and unafraid to make some high variance calls, especially if we fall behind. If we're down multiple scores at any point then I think we need to be very aggressive on 4th down in the middle of the field. And I wouldn't mind seeing some kind of trickeration - fake punt, onside kick, etc - if the moment seems right. I see this as a game where every possession will be precious and buying one extra possession in this way could easily be the difference between having a shot at stealing a close win versus being down two scores in the 4th quarter.
Offense
I am strongly on the side of RedOctober that the offense needs to really commit to the run and attempt to impose our will there, mainly because of the weakness of our red zone passing offense without Gronk. The most amazing thing about the Indy game was that we hardly needed to throw in the ball in the red zone at all. We had 1st downs at the 2, 7, 12, 5, and 3 on our five red zone possessions and we threw the ball once. I can't see us winning this game without being efficient in the red zone and I think our best chance of doing that is if we can win in the running game.
If Denver sells out to stop the run, then hit them with play action and misdirection. But I really hope McDaniels doesn't out think himself, get too caught up in the chess match aspect of things, and go air-heavy. At some level, we have to just to line up and stay, "We're going to make this a physical war at the LoS and lets see if you can hold up."
Defense
I haven't felt this good about our defense against a Peyton Manning offense since 2004. Nobody is going to stop that Denver offense completely but, with the secondary finally healthy and Collins' emergence, we really have the players to match up in coverage, maybe more than any other team in the league except Seattle. The key against Peyton is always to have a good disguise, to keep changing up coverages, and to limit the damage downfield. I think we're well equipped to do that. We can keep alternating whether Hightower, Collins, or neither rushes. We can drop Nink or even Jones into coverage on occasion (as we did a few times against Indy). We can alternate man and zone and hybrid coverages. Two interesting personnel decisions are at nickel and safety. Arrington got benched for Ryan near the end of the first half against Indy and didn't see the field again. I like Ryan better as a coverage player overall but Arrington's familiarity with Welker might get him the nod. I'm also interested to see what BB does at safety - Steve Gregory played the whole game against Indianapolis, except for a few snaps that went to Tavon Wilson, but I could see Duron Harmon getting more run against Denver.
Coaching
Aside from what has already been covered, I just hope that BB is aggressive and unafraid to make some high variance calls, especially if we fall behind. If we're down multiple scores at any point then I think we need to be very aggressive on 4th down in the middle of the field. And I wouldn't mind seeing some kind of trickeration - fake punt, onside kick, etc - if the moment seems right. I see this as a game where every possession will be precious and buying one extra possession in this way could easily be the difference between having a shot at stealing a close win versus being down two scores in the 4th quarter.
Bailey is like a corpse out there now. I'd be stunned if he could keep up with Edelman and shut him down.lambeau said:
ESPN will not be all Denver. Hoge and Hasselbeck both picked New England in this convo, but they cut it short before Hannah asked them for early predictions.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10286566
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10286566
I do agree that this is the best set up Pats defense to shut down a top passing attack in years. Defense is actually healthy in a sense: Mayo/Wilfork (and Spikes/Kelly to a lesser extent) remain big losses, but the guys on the roster are pretty healthy. The secondary, in particular, is the healthiest its been since Talib first hurt his hip.
Stitch01 said:
There's a truism (the Patriots Football Weekly guys live by it) that you don't get healthier over the course of the season but it just isn't true a lot of the time. Maybe teams generally trend downwards but particular players can get healthy. Dennard, Arrington, Talib and Gregory all looked a lot better out there than they have in a while and there's a chance they don't get shredded by Manning. Manning is just killing zone coverage and I think our guys are good enough to throw in a bunch of man coverage with good effect.
Stitch you bring up a big and Worrisome point.
Wilfork, Kelly, Mayo and Spikes. What do they all do well? Stop the run.
What is our current strength? Dmac, Talib and Dennard.
Denver because of Manning has a great passing game. I wonder if Fox will have enough testicular fortitude to say "the game plan for this week is Knowshon, Knowshon and more Knowshon.
Collins, HT and Siliga need big games against the RUN.
Wilfork, Kelly, Mayo and Spikes. What do they all do well? Stop the run.
What is our current strength? Dmac, Talib and Dennard.
Denver because of Manning has a great passing game. I wonder if Fox will have enough testicular fortitude to say "the game plan for this week is Knowshon, Knowshon and more Knowshon.
Collins, HT and Siliga need big games against the RUN.
This might be another no-huddle opportunity. Denver hasn't been willing to play Bailey in more than half the snaps, so by going no-huddle they can either keep him off the field (and pass at the substitute corner), or keep him on the field and try to exhaust him / take advantage of his injury woes, particularly on running plays (Denver's tried to avoid using him in non-passing situations this year; he was only on the field for 4 running plays yesterday).lambeau said:
Vereen has basically been invisible since Gronk went down, except the end of the Browns game. That makes sense; teams don't have to respect Hoomanawanui in the passing game so they can put their best coverage LBs on Vereen. The Broncos match up pretty well with Trevathan and Woodyard, so I'm thinking this might be more of a Blount / Ridley game unless the Pats fall behind. I also wonder if they might try Vereen in the running game. They were successful with that week 1, and they might feel if Denver deploys their small defense that they can run out of 3-WR sets.lambeau said:
I agree this is plan A, but the problem is we just saw San Diego try this and fail. If the Broncos can hold up, we're going to need a plan B and we're going to need to go to it earlier than the Chargers did.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I wonder if we might see some 3-safety sets, with Wilson, Harmon, or Gregory on Julius Thomas, or maybe even a fourth CB.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
That's pretty much what they did in the first meeting, right? Moreno had over 200 rush yards.bakahump said:
If it was all Knowshon I'd be thanking the football Gods. That's what Bill gave them last game and it ended up netting Denver 7 points in 3 full quarters in the 2nd half. I'm not putting much stock in the first half since it was giving Denver short fields on turnovers.bakahump said:
As has been stated, the run defense has gotten much better with Siliga taking up space for others to make plays.
Agree that they have to be willing to adjust the gameplan, but I'm not sure that San Diego's issue was the gameplan as much as personnel. Mathews rushed 5 times for 26 yards was out for the remainder of the game. The Pats have the luxury of two healthy backs capable of 25-30 carries apiece, plus Vereen.Super Nomario said:
I've noticed some people point out that the Pats gave up some long passes against the Colts, but honestly that doesn't worry me as much against the Broncos. Luck's long ball >>>>>> Manning's long ball.
Luck made about 4-5 completions, a few of them incredible, just as he was getting hit. I'm not sure Manning completes any of those, and he's probably taking a few sacks. If the Linebackers can get through the middle like they did against Indy, Denver is in serious trouble. A lot of it really has been Siliga. He's taking a couple blockers now on some plays, and it is giving an open lane to the second level.
Luck made about 4-5 completions, a few of them incredible, just as he was getting hit. I'm not sure Manning completes any of those, and he's probably taking a few sacks. If the Linebackers can get through the middle like they did against Indy, Denver is in serious trouble. A lot of it really has been Siliga. He's taking a couple blockers now on some plays, and it is giving an open lane to the second level.
App won't let me edit, but I did want to add in the caveat that Indy's O-line is terrible, and I expect Denver to do a better job up front. Still, the Pats got some pressure up the middle last time out against Denver, and are better equipped now in that area than they were then.
RedOctober3829 said:
Right, and the 2nd half featured Denver giving NE field position gifts with turnovers too.
Honestly, the last game these teams played was fucking odd and I don't think it's all that useful in trying to predict what could happen this week.
I didn't say the Pats didn't get any gifts. I was pointing out that the Patriots' game plan of giving up the run defense turned out well as Peyton didn't have great success throwing the football.86spike said:
I agree with you that that game doesn't predict much for this one. The weather was a huge factor that night and the early returns say the conditions will be ideal.
Broncos went pretty run heavy yesterday all things considered (looks like 36 pass, 33 run from the box score) with something like 4.3 yards a rush and no big plays in the run game. I think the Pats would be very happy with that as the outcome this Sunday, but expect Denver will be throwing more.
Super Nomario
"That's pretty much what they did in the first meeting, right? Moreno had over 200 rush yards."
Yes, but the weather and the recognition that Manning couldn't handle it very well contributed to the Knowshon-heavy attack, I would think.
"That's pretty much what they did in the first meeting, right? Moreno had over 200 rush yards."
Yes, but the weather and the recognition that Manning couldn't handle it very well contributed to the Knowshon-heavy attack, I would think.
On Vereen: as good as he is on screens, he's miserable in catching the ball 15-20 yards down the left sideline. Yesterday, he again missed a wide open throw. I've seen 4 balls thrown to him there during the season and 3 bounced off his hands. From yesterday, he oddly had his inside hand in front of his outside hand and the ball deflected off that inside hand.
It's too bad because the play seems to be there once a game. Wonder if McDaniels takes it out of the game plan - I'd doubt it - but unless he's killing it in practice, I'd have to think he'd be reluctant to call it.
It's too bad because the play seems to be there once a game. Wonder if McDaniels takes it out of the game plan - I'd doubt it - but unless he's killing it in practice, I'd have to think he'd be reluctant to call it.