Brady is back….back again

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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This is way, way off base.

Godwin is going to come back this year. They have probably the best, most deep wideout group in the NFL. Gronk will definitely be missed but more for his blocking. Cam Brate is a very good receiving TE.
My concern for that offense begins with its OL and lack of depth so not sure why you are downplaying Gronk’s absence bc he’s primarily been an elite blocking TE in recent years.

They probably upgraded the RG spot going from Cappa to Shaq Mason. The Jensen injury hurts but all of the reports out of camp are that Hainsey is playing very well. The Marpet retirement and finding his replacement is the biggest loss but Aaron Stinnie did a good job replacing him during their Super Bowl run.

I know you’re into gambling and the Bucs have the second highest odds to win the Super Bowl and highest in the NFC. None of your post is rooted in reality
Losing Jensen and now Wirfs are enormous hits not only to their current group but to the depth once the next injury inevitably occurs.

Yeah, I think the Bucs are one of the teams that the market is overvaluing even prior to this Brady thing. The defense is obv elite but there are cracks now showing up. If they can get out of the first four weeks 2-2 I’ll be thoroughly impressed (@DAL, @NO, GB, & KC) but they can be down a quick 0-2 very easily. The largest wager I have in Week 1 is again plays against their offense in the Under 53.5, 52 and 51 vs Cowboys.
 
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johnmd20

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Yeah, I think the Bucs are one of the teams that the market is overvaluing even prior to this Brady thing. The defense is obv elite but there are cracks now showing up. If they can get out of the first four weeks 2-2 I’ll be thoroughly impressed (@DAL, @NO, GB, & KC) but they can be down a quick 0-2 very easily. The largest wager I have in Week 1 is again plays against their offense in the Under 53.5, 52 and 51 vs Cowboys.
TB is one of the best teams in the NFC, quite possibly the best team in the NFC. Your wager has somehow convinced you (incepted you?) the TB offense stinks, like players have never been hurt on teams before in the NFL.

Their team is great on both sides of the ball.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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TB is one of the best teams in the NFC, quite possibly the best team in the NFC. Your wager has somehow convinced you (incepted you?) the TB offense stinks, like players have never been hurt on teams before in the NFL.

Their team is great on both sides of the ball.
When I say “stinks” I’m referring to relative to the market price. My wager didn’t convince me of this, I made the wager based on my analysis while I get the free non-zero upside of TB not playing.
 

rodderick

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Wirfs has a strained oblique, I don't think it's the type of injury that will keep him out long for the regular season, if at all. Jensen being out hurts, but why isn't the Mason acquisition being weighed there? I think he's better than Cappa. The Bucs offense could be 80% of their 2020/21 selves and still be a top 5 unit in the league (considering they've had the best offense by DVOA and EPA/Play during that stretch).

Not to mention, having Brady more in charge of game planning with Leftwich can be a positive. The Bucs under Arians ranked 30th in play action percentage and were among the most conservative teams in football on 4th down. There's a good chance whatever they lost in personnel is made up for with a more modern approach on offense, and I don't anticipate they'll go away from the "throwing the ball on 70% of downs" mentality.
 

nattysez

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Sep 30, 2010
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Might be easier to start listing teams Brady wasn't allegedly playing footsie with (I understand that Dana White would not be above lying about this).

View: https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1561166668486754305?t=oUn90kIRFkg8gxLIJUuQEw&s=19

Hmm...

View: https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1561174696367996930?t=k4L2xhCkOkXSvYWX1KoTpQ&s=19



Also, the Bucs' starting LG was carted off the field tonight.

View: https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1561162284164153345?t=VVzUKFXdyk7NbK9DvcEcww&s=19
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
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Mar 19, 2004
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Gisele shared a pic on IG celebrating their son Jack's 15th birthday.

It's likely a family vacation celebrating birthdays and the rest is simply nonsense.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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Gisele shared a pic on IG celebrating their son Jack's 15th birthday.

It's likely a family vacation celebrating birthdays and the rest is simply nonsense.
Apparently they were in the Bahamas.
 

johnmd20

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Do you really think Tom Brady publicly left training came to have work done, when the most eyes would be on him and the publicity would be highest?
 

BigSoxFan

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Do you really think Tom Brady publicly left training came to have work done, when the most eyes would be on him and the publicity would be highest?
I don’t. He’s looked weird for a while now. I also think this story is a giant nothingburger. He’ll be slinging TDs in 2 weeks.
 
Aug 9, 2015
636
Do you really think Tom Brady publicly left training came to have work done, when the most eyes would be on him and the publicity would be highest?
Would certainly be an odd choice, but maybe it was a necessity. Or maybe he went to Jared Kushner immortality camp instead. But really this whole thing has been so oddly handled. It’s kind of useless to speculate but something definitely seems different about him all around. I’d be very surprised if this wasn’t his last go round.
 

Jimbodandy

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Do you really think Tom Brady publicly left training came to have work done, when the most eyes would be on him and the publicity would be highest?
People have pretty fucking wild imaginations obviously. Or maybe Brady was slaughtering unicorns for their immortal blood. Completely lost on the soap opera of this and why people care.

Like it's news that he left mid-camp, and it's news that he came back. But "OMG he had work done" takes should make people feel icky for having them.
 

rodderick

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People have pretty fucking wild imaginations obviously. Or maybe Brady was slaughtering unicorns for their immortal blood. Completely lost on the soap opera of this and why people care.

Like it's news that he left mid-camp, and it's news that he came back. But "OMG he had work done" takes should make people feel icky for having them.
Huh? He obviously had work done. Just look at his face. I'm not saying he left training camp specifically to have work done, but he's had work done in the off-season for years now. What's the problem?
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Huh? He obviously had work done. Just look at his face. I'm not saying he left training camp specifically to have work done, but he's had work done in the off-season for years now. What's the problem?
Thanks for your analysis. Well thought out, clearly demonstrates your case. Super additive. Thank you
 

rodderick

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Thanks for your analysis. Well thought out, clearly demonstrates your case. Super additive. Thank you
The amount of petty pearl clutching in this board is so tiring. Sorry I can't provide medical records to prove my very important case that "hey, looks like Tom had some work done in his face".
For the 4th time, the players voted Brady as the #1 player in the league:

View: https://youtu.be/0Q80gJA2Kao


At age 45. Beyond remarkable.
Should have been MVP last year and I'm glad the players recognize that (even though I think the top 100 is mostly a popularity contest and I don't think most guys pay close attention to the goings on in the league). I don't know why football is the only sport in which volume shouldn't be a factor when discussing player performance. Brady was right there with Rodgers in evey efficiency stat on 30% extra volume, which is why he led the league far and away in DYAR and total EPA added (also PFF WAR, but that's kind of a messy amalgalm of subjective analysis and stat extrapolation). Not to mention the Bucs offense ranked 30% higher than the Packers' by total DVOA and 20% higher by passing DVOA while scoring 4.5 more points per game. If an NBA player has a slightly lower TS% on 30% more volume than his peer and his team is better on offense, most people recognize him as being more valuable. Not in the NFL, though, it's all about not throwing interceptions for some reason. Passer rating being a part of the box score makes QB performance analysis so much worse.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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I did an analysis once in turnovers and expected points. I wish I could find it, but I can’t. And I can’t remember exactly the numbers but I’m gonna say it was something like every turnover was a net loss of field position of like 50 yards, and an expected point loss of several.

So turnovers have a HUGE impact on field position and expected points and, usually, game outcomes.

There’s a reason why interceptions factor so heavily in passer rating.

The real issue is touchdowns I think. I mean, QB1 throws for 50 yards on a drive on 7-8 passing, converting several huge third downs, gets his team to the one yard line, and the WR stumbles at the one and goes out of bounds…and the RB pounds it in for the score.

QB2 does the exact same thing but the WR doesn’t stumble and manages to get into the end zone.

QB1 ends up with a passer rating of 92.7 for that drive while QB2 ends up with a passer rating of 132.8.

Even though both QBs do virtually the exact same thing and the team ends up with 7 points either way.

We all have seen how some QBs get inflated stats by throwing a ton inside the five yard line, while other teams run it in from there, so that depresses their QBs touchdown pass total, thus depressing his passer rating, even though he’s basically performed at the same standard as the other guy.
 

Red Averages

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Apr 20, 2003
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Heard a rumor from a well placed source that the Brady step away was due to marital problems. Likely explains the family vacation. Probably more to come. I don’t really care or think people should discuss such things but the stupid Face Work rumors seem to not be stopping.
 

Van Everyman

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Newton

Preacher

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Wasn't this time away supposedly planned well in advance?
We know how meticulous he is with his life. Is it too hard to imagine he knew in advance he’d have some marital issue exactly at this time and know exactly how long it would take him to resolve it and return to camp so he cleared the absence in advance?
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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We know how meticulous he is with his life. Is it too hard to imagine he knew in advance he’d have some marital issue exactly at this time and know exactly how long it would take him to resolve it and return to camp so he cleared the absence in advance?
Good point.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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I did an analysis once in turnovers and expected points. I wish I could find it, but I can’t. And I can’t remember exactly the numbers but I’m gonna say it was something like every turnover was a net loss of field position of like 50 yards, and an expected point loss of several.

So turnovers have a HUGE impact on field position and expected points and, usually, game outcomes.

There’s a reason why interceptions factor so heavily in passer rating.

The real issue is touchdowns I think. I mean, QB1 throws for 50 yards on a drive on 7-8 passing, converting several huge third downs, gets his team to the one yard line, and the WR stumbles at the one and goes out of bounds…and the RB pounds it in for the score.

QB2 does the exact same thing but the WR doesn’t stumble and manages to get into the end zone.

QB1 ends up with a passer rating of 92.7 for that drive while QB2 ends up with a passer rating of 132.8.

Even though both QBs do virtually the exact same thing and the team ends up with 7 points either way.

We all have seen how some QBs get inflated stats by throwing a ton inside the five yard line, while other teams run it in from there, so that depresses their QBs touchdown pass total, thus depressing his passer rating, even though he’s basically performed at the same standard as the other guy.
It’s possible to get so deep into analytics that we forget basic stuff, like that the team that turns over the ball more times usually loses the game. That said, a lot of picks aren’t the QB’s fault. And any metric (INT%) where a bad outcome 1% of the time is elite and a bad outcome 3% of the time is terrible will have a ton of noise from year to year.

Peak TB12 had an uncanny knack for avoiding interceptions. I’m sure he worked the shit out of any part of that outcome he could control, similar to how Greg Maddux and Mariano Rivera consistently defied the BABIP gods. But I’m also sure he benefited from Belichick’s relentless focus on “do your job” — TB12 didn’t always have the best receivers in New England, but they generally made the right reads, right cuts, etc. I’m skeptical the Bucs’ execution is similarly crisp. I don’t see that getting better — Arians’s coaching staff largely remains, and the weakened O-Line is just going to put more pressure on everything.

In equal situations, I’d still take TB12 over anyone but Mahomes, but I think we’ll continue to see TB’s situation leak into his numbers, even if the very visible relaxation of his legendary focus this past month ultimately amounts to noise (which I think it does).
 

Mugsy's Jock

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On the other hand ... it was on PAGE SIX
The Post is going all in on stirring the Brady/Giselle discord theory. There have been 4-5 different stories over the last week (and by “different”, I mean “the same but with a different picture and headline”). And the stories always land on the front page of their web edition.

Im sure that only happens because the clicks are telling the editors it’s a click-rich ssubject.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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The Post is going all in on stirring the Brady/Giselle discord theory. There have been 4-5 different stories over the last week (and by “different”, I mean “the same but with a different picture and headline”). And the stories always land on the front page of their web edition.

Im sure that only happens because the clicks are telling the editors it’s a click-rich ssubject.
LOL last week?

These stories have been getting released by Gossip click bait sites since he announced he was coming back:

https://www.suggest.com/gisele-bundchen-tom-brady-terrified-nfl-return-health-risks/2631096/

https://name.tl/tom-bradys-marriage-allegedly-in-crisis-gisele-reportedly-furious-about-nfl-comeback-anonymous-source-says/
 

rodderick

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Maybe I'm being a little insensitive here, but Brady has a job with a 5 and a half month long off-season and his working days mostly end at 4pm. I'm not saying being Quarterback in the NFL isn't an incredibly demanding job physically and mentally during the season, but is Tom Brady less available to his family as a function of what he does for a living than the average person? Not to mention he'll retire from it about 20 years before most people.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Maybe I'm being a little insensitive here, but Brady has a job with a 5 and a half month long off-season and his working days mostly end at 4pm. I'm not saying being Quarterback in the NFL isn't an incredibly demanding job physically and mentally during the season, but is Tom Brady less available to his family as a function of what he does for a living than the average person? Not to mention he'll retire from it about 20 years before most people.
What's the point of comparing Tom Brady to an average person? He exists in his own universe and can pretty much do whatever he wants. It is pretty pointless to compare the life of any superstar athlete to an average person in terms of what they can or should do in their private life, but it's especially pointless when it comes to Brady.
 

Dogman

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And there are plenty of stories of guys getting to the stadiums during the week at 5 AM for workout/treatment/whatever and they find Brady already there watching film. I think it is a 24/7 thing for Brady during the season.
 
Aug 9, 2015
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What's the point of comparing Tom Brady to an average person? He exists in his own universe and can pretty much do whatever he wants. It is pretty pointless to compare the life of any superstar athlete to an average person in terms of what they can or should do in their private life, but it's especially pointless when it comes to Brady.
Agreed. TB’s resources create a lot of life efficiencies (child care, home/auto care, tortured budgeting decisions) that most of us can only imagine. I think this has as much to do with concerns over Tom’s health and him having an attention span to commit to his children at an early stage in their lives as it does about pure time spent at home.
 

Reverend

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And there are plenty of stories of guys getting to the stadiums during the week at 5 AM for workout/treatment/whatever and they find Brady already there watching film. I think it is a 24/7 thing for Brady during the season.
Exactly. Getting off work at 4pm isn’t actually that early for a guy who’s in bed by 8pm.
 

E5 Yaz

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It won't surprise me if Brady never becomes a an analyst for FOX, and that contract disappears by mutual agreement
 

Dogman

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Exactly. Getting off work at 4pm isn’t actually that early for a guy who’s in bed by 8pm.
Right. Time to get home, eat, and some family time and then lights out. Lives and breathes football. After last year's MVP season at 44, not sure how anyone can believe differently.