Bill Belichick and the Drafting of Wide Receivers

dcdrew10 · Feb 18, 2022

Missing Aaron Dobson, second round pick 2013. The draft is a crap shoot and BB doesn't have a great track record on drafting big and/or fast WR early, so I think going OL might be a safer bet. Though if Williams passes medical check and is available at 21 he might be worth the roll of the dice.

lexrageorge · Feb 18, 2022

Dobson had a decent rookie season, but then battled injuries which eventually ended his career after 3 seasons.

Malcolm Mitchell was drafted 4th round in 2016. Another promising rookie done in by injury.

IdiotKicker · Feb 18, 2022

Missing Malcolm Mitchell as well, who was at an incredibly high level by the end of his rookie year (his SB was ridiculous). Huge shame because he would have been a meaningful asset the last 5 years.

ehaz · Feb 18, 2022

I'm convinced that this thread/narrative wouldn't exist if Malcolm Mitchell's knees held up. What a bummer.

Seems like a great guy too.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/super-bowl-2017-malcolm-mitchell-patriots-wide-receivers-proudest-achievement-isnt-making-the-super-bowl/

E5 Yaz · Feb 18, 2022

ehaz said:
I'm convinced that this thread/narrative wouldn't exist if Malcolm Mitchell's knees held up. What a bummer.

Seems like a great guy too.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/super-bowl-2017-malcolm-mitchell-patriots-wide-receivers-proudest-achievement-isnt-making-the-super-bowl/

One of his latest endeavors

https://blackpressusa.com/press-room-cox-and-former-nfl-star-partner-on-digital-equity-initiative/

BusRaker · Feb 18, 2022

I would have to compare it to other team's picks to draw any conclusion. In 20 years we get ~140 picks (probable a handful more). Wide receivers occupy roughly 10% of the roster so using 18 of 140 picks is within reason, especially considering the average pick used was the 143rd in a 7 round draft.

I don't think any of the other GMs are hitting home runs every year, but it seems to me that they have been better at finding superstars in the draft where we had to sign Moss and Welks out of free agency (edit: or trade)

Cellar-Door · Feb 18, 2022

I think for the question of taking a WR early, it's probably better to focus on his early round WR record in terms of hits versus the tier (I'm being pretty generous with tier meaning basically the next 30 or so picks)
2002- Branch in the late 2nd, last of that tier, next WR taken in 2002 was in the late 3rd, no notable WRs passed on (reasonable to have taken)
2003- Bethel Johnson in the mid 2nd (50 games 600 yards 4 seasons), WRs taken in the next round or so: Anquan Boldin, Kelley Washington, Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis. So we probably took the worst of that tier.
2006- Chad Jackson early 2nd 9 (18 games 171 yards over 3 seasons), tier was.. Sincorice Moss and Greg Jennings, we took the worst, but only 1 of the 3 was a good NFL player
2013- Aaron Dobson 24 games 698 yards over 3 seasons (note he was mediocre as a rookie before injuries essentially ended his career), tier was Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen, Marquise Goodwin. would probably say Dobson was in a fight for 3/4 with Goodwin.
2019- N'Keal Harry- late 1st (33 games 598 yards in 3 years so far), tier was Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Parris Campbell. 2 superstars, a solid WR and 2 fellow busts (but a tighter tier definition would make this look much worse as the busts were the guys down near 30 picks later).

I don't really have an issue with Bill taking a WR in the 1st this year, but I do think he generally has been better at finding values late than identifying and developing guys in the early rounds relative to their peers. He generally has ended up whether through draft or development with some of the worst guys in their general area.

ifmanis5 · Feb 18, 2022

IdiotKicker said:
Missing Malcolm Mitchell as well, who was at an incredibly high level by the end of his rookie year (his SB was ridiculous). Huge shame because he would have been a meaningful asset the last 5 years.

Yeah, this guy was my guy. Loved everything he did and still upset he got hurt.

As bad as that list is, there's still possibly two HOFers are on there and if Branch had stayed, possibly three.

Possibilities that BB drafted a HOF player at every position while with the Pats:
QB - yes
OL - some possibilities
RB - likely not
WR - some possibilities / special teams, see above
K - yes
Punter - punters other than Ray Guy don't make it
DL - yes
LB - some possibilities
DB - yes

dcdrew10 · Feb 18, 2022

BaseballJones said:
For the record, I didn't start this thread to crap on BB's picks at the WR position. It's actually better than what many people think it is.

I agree, but it seems like BB track record in drafting WR is better at picking the smaller, quick rather than fast, inside-out types; see Branch, Jules, Malcolm Mitchell (though he was definitely fast and probably a better outside receiver than he gets credit and people tend to remember his failures, ex: Dobson, Chad Jackson, Harry. Draft position plays a part, but scheme, teaching style vs. learning style, TB12, etc. There are so many factors that play into it. Like I said, the right player and I am all for drafting a WR; they need some dynamism on offense.

Also just realized that if the Patriots draft a WR and that player wears #17, call their career over. Dobson, Jackson, Price all wore #17 with the Patriots.

Edit: apparently I am not the only one who saw 17 as bad sign. AB also wore it, though he wasn't a Pats draftee. Hopefully Kristian Wilkerson can keep up his 50% TD to reception rate going.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/08/24/sports/curse-patriots-no-17/

ShaneTrot · Feb 18, 2022

You are missing Marquie Brown the Ravens' first-rounder in 2019 picked before Harry. He had a 1008 yard season in 2021.

E5 Yaz · Feb 18, 2022

BaseballJones said:
Now here's a look at Baltimore - a team that has had a reputation for excellent drafting success.

The Ravens' rep for being a strong drafting team isn't limited to the WR position

E5 Yaz · Feb 18, 2022

BaseballJones said:
I know. I never hinted or suggested or claimed otherwise.

Oh shit ... why do I bother? Why does anyone bother?

Cellar-Door · Feb 18, 2022

I think it is more than fair to say that Bill is bad at drafting WRs near the top of the draft and mediocre at drafting in the mid and late rounds (where everyone is).
Now, the whole draft is generally a crapshoot, BUT.. Bill has probably been worse than his peers at getting production out of high round WRs.

Things like drafting and converting Edelman in the late rounds, doesn't really tell me much about how they evaluate WRs, or whether I trust them to make good 1st/2nd round WR picks. Branch I guess is probably the only player where you can say... this was clearly a good identification of talent early in a draft.

lexrageorge · Feb 18, 2022

I think there is some recency bias here. If one of Dobson or Mitchell doesn't get hurt, or if Bill had drafted nearly anyone else other than N'Keal Harry, his record looks a LOT better. Of course, he made those picks, so they are certainly valid data points to use when talking about his draft record. But I don't believe the narrative that Bill is just bad at drafting WR's in the early rounds; like a lot of GM's, there's a couple of hits and misses there, with one really bad whiff in Harry.

jmanny24 · Feb 18, 2022

This is part of my issue with the draft. Imo people's expectations are too low. Why is bethel Johnson a solid contributor but harry is a bust. Harry has better numbers than Johnson. I want more out of both of them given where they were drafted and definitely more than a ST guy in the 2nd.

MuppetAsteriskTalk · Feb 18, 2022

BaseballJones said:
Out of 18 picks at WR...

- 2 studs at WR (Edelman, Branch)
- 3 studs at special teams (Branch, Tate, Johnson)
- 2 solid WRs (Givens, Berrios)
- 2 guys who got off to good starts but injuries sunk them (Dobson, Mitchell)
- 2 unknowns at this point (Harry, Nixon)
- 7 guys who were noncontributors, for all intents and purposes (Sam, Jackson, Price, Ebert, Boyce, Gallon, Lucien)

You had him in the earlier list, but missed Slater in your "studs at special teams" in this post.

Cellar-Door · Feb 18, 2022

lexrageorge said:
I think there is some recency bias here. If one of Dobson or Mitchell doesn't get hurt, or if Bill had drafted nearly anyone else other than N'Keal Harry, his record looks a LOT better. Of course, he made those picks, so they are certainly valid data points to use when talking about his draft record. But I don't believe the narrative that Bill is just bad at drafting WR's in the early rounds; like a lot of GM's, there's a couple of hits and misses there, with one really bad whiff in Harry.

I don't care about Mitchell, mid round picks are crap shoots. But saying... "oh well if he'd drafted better players..." even Dobson... he was acceptable as a rookie, there is no reason to assume he'd have been much better than ok going forward, 2 of the 3 guys after him were better as rookies.

SMU_Sox · Feb 18, 2022

I understand why he went Harry. He wanted a bigger bodied guy with YAC ability who could hopefully also play some X. Deebo is more of a slot guy, AJ Brown was thought by many to be a slot guy (not me I saw him have success outside), and Harry was also another guy who probably was best projected as a big slot but had some success outside. Harry had decent athletic testing. He blocked well. He returned punts which shows toughness imo. He produced a ton at an early age which the analytics crowd loved. Now I hated Harry as a prospect and was team AJ Brown and those receipts are here and with the slack group but I get the logic. He got sold a bill of goods on Harry that wasn’t true. We also heard through credible sources that Harry has a legitimate reason why he struggled with coaching and learning.
Ultimately it’s a small sample size issue and a lack of draft investment issue. He also probably should focus more on wide receiver traits and production vs athleticism at the position but he did that to some degree with Harry and it didn’t work out. HT: Nomario on the bill of goods language.

SMU_Sox · Feb 18, 2022

Harry isn’t an unknown at this point @BaseballJones . The only unknown thing is when will he be replaced by someone who can play the position better. He can block well. Credit where it is due but he is a bust not an unknown. He doesn’t contribute meaningful snaps aside from blocking and that almost doesn’t count for a WR. Like if that’s what you are hanging your hat on then we got some issues.

RG33 · Feb 18, 2022

BaseballJones said:
Out of 18 picks at WR...

- 2 studs at WR (Edelman, Branch)
- 3 studs at special teams (Branch, Tate, Johnson)
- 2 solid WRs (Givens, Berrios)
- 2 guys who got off to good starts but injuries sunk them (Dobson, Mitchell)
- 2 unknowns at this point (Harry, Nixon)
- 7 guys who were noncontributors, for all intents and purposes (Sam, Jackson, Price, Ebert, Boyce, Gallon, Lucien)

Just stopping by to pick a nit, but I would be including Edelman in the “studs at special teams” group as well since he was a fairly elite PR for many years.

bsj · Feb 18, 2022

I remember thinking Chad Jackson was going to be a stud.

:|

tims4wins · Feb 18, 2022

bsj said:
I remember thinking Chad Jackson was going to be a stud.

:|

That was my favorite draft day ever. It was still the old format of rounds 1-3 on Saturday and 4-7 on Sunday. We had a huge cookout and a bunch of people over. The beers were flowing steadily. It was a beautiful April day. Everyone was stoked with the 1-2 offensive punch of Maroney and Jackson. Alas, that was the high point of their career (or at least Jackson's).

RIrooter09 · Feb 18, 2022

bsj said:
I remember thinking Chad Jackson was going to be a stud.

:|

That TD in week 2 against the Jets had 19 year old me hyped.

KiltedFool · Feb 18, 2022

Steelers have had a reputation for being able to consistently reload at WR for a good while now, thought I'd take a quick look from data gathered here: Bold type and links are from the other site, generally bold is the noteworthy names, though I notice some errors on the site (holmes was traded, which pick ended up later becoming AB, they said left in FA) I think the names and rounds are right, though this was written in 2019 so I added to the end.

2000: 1st round, Plaxico Burress, Michigan State; 4th round, Danny Farmer, UCLA
2001: 7th round, Chris Taylor, Texas A&M
2002: 2nd round, Antwaan Randle-El, Indiana; 6th round, Lee Mays, Texas El-Paso
2003: None
2004: None
2005: 4th round, Fred Gibson, Georgia
2006: 1st round, Santonio Holmes, Ohio St.
2007: 7th round, Dallas Baker, Florida
2008, 2nd round, Limas Sweed, Texas
2009: 3rd round, Mike Wallace, Mississippi
2010: 3rd round, Emmanuel Sanders, SMU; 6th round, Antonio Brown, Central Michigan
2011: None
2012: 7th round, Toney Clemmons, Colorado
2013: 3rd round, Markus Wheaton, Oregon St.; 6th round, Justin Brown, Oklahoma
2014: 4th round, Martavis Bryant, Clemson
2015: 3rd round, Sammie Coates, Auburn
2016: 7th round, DeMarcus Ayers, Houston
2017: 2nd round, JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC
2018: 2nd round, James Washington, Oklahoma State
2019: 3rd round, Diontae Johnson, Toledo
2020: 2nd round, Chase Claypool

1st round: 2
2nd round: 5
3rd round: 5
4th round: 3
5th round: 0
6th round: 3
7th round: 4

Roughly a 50% hit rate overall.

ManicCompression · Feb 18, 2022

I think the issue, as I've understood it, is not so much that the Patriots are bad at drafting wide receivers. It's that they don't draft enough of them, so the likelihood of a hit is lower (they're averaging less than one a year). Baltimore mixes in a Mark Clayton, a Hollywood Brown, a Rashod Bateman amongst 20+ other nondescript picks. The Titans don't have a great drafting record at WR, but look at AJ Brown.

Of course, this is operating as if drafting wide receivers is an end rather than a means to an end. The goal is to create a good football, not develop good wide receivers. If the overall strategy has led to success because we're typically strong elsewhere on the roster and good enough at the receiving position by having no high talent but good depth, then that's a good strategy.

I'd love a receiver as much as anyone else - it would certainly make for a more visually stimulating game - but so long as they keep finding contributors in the draft at most any position, I'll be okay with this shortcoming. If you hit on an LB in the fourth round, that opens up roster capital elsewhere (like receiver).

macal · Feb 18, 2022

Isn't one of the issues that the Pats have had drafting for the last 20+ years is that they have been consistently at the end of the first round with their first pick and also lost a few due to ???? It's kind of a no mans land where it is too low a pick for a slam dunk WR, but still high enough to luck into an ace. Now, if they had a top 10 pick every year and used it every 2-3 years on a WR, then they would have a much better hit rate with slam dunk WR's and would have went through a bunch of true WR aces. However, we would be bemoaning the fact that they hadn't won a SB in their existence. The highest that they have drafted a WR is 32. I doubt there is any other team that hasn't drafted a WR higher than 32 during the last 20 years.

Cellar-Door · Feb 18, 2022

ManicCompression said:
I think the issue, as I've understood it, is not so much that the Patriots are bad at drafting wide receivers. It's that they don't draft enough of them, so the likelihood of a hit is lower (they're averaging less than one a year). Baltimore mixes in a Mark Clayton, a Hollywood Brown, a Rashod Bateman amongst 20+ other nondescript picks. The Titans don't have a great drafting record at WR, but look at AJ Brown.

Of course, this is operating as if drafting wide receivers is an end rather than a means to an end. The goal is to create a good football, not develop good wide receivers. If the overall strategy has led to success because we're typically strong elsewhere on the roster and good enough at the receiving position by having no high talent but good depth, then that's a good strategy.

I'd love a receiver as much as anyone else - it would certainly make for a more visually stimulating game - but so long as they keep finding contributors in the draft at most any position, I'll be okay with this shortcoming. If you hit on an LB in the fourth round, that opens up roster capital elsewhere (like receiver).

I think it's both. they don't take many shots, but also they've pretty consistently picked wrong (or developed poorly) on their early round shots, taking the worst guy on the board among likely options.

Hoya81 · Feb 18, 2022

tims4wins said:
That was my favorite draft day ever. It was still the old format of rounds 1-3 on Saturday and 4-7 on Sunday. We had a huge cookout and a bunch of people over. The beers were flowing steadily. It was a beautiful April day. Everyone was stoked with the 1-2 offensive punch of Maroney and Jackson. Alas, that was the high point of their career (or at least Jackson's).

Honestly, moving the draft away from that original lazy weekend format might top the list of Goodell's many crimes against the game.

Super Nomario · Feb 18, 2022

It's really not at all weird to go 1 for 6 on picks that on aggregate you'd probably expect to go 2 for 6 on.

JM3 · Feb 18, 2022

ChadJack strange draft profile in hindsight - very fast (4.32 40), but somehow only averaged 10.2 ypc his Junior year. Probably got overdrafted due to 9 TDs. He might also be an injury guy - had nagging hamstring injuries a lot of his rookie year & tore his ACL in the playoffs in 2006 & missed most of 2007 as a result.

Packers kind of owned the Patriots on this one - traded 36 for 52 & 75, then went ahead & drafted Greg Jennings at 52. They took interior OL Jason Spitz at 75 & he started 45 games for them on his rookie contract before his career was basically over.

Koufax · Feb 20, 2022

Back to Pittsburgh again, looking at rounds 1 - 3:

1st (2 picks): Burress, Holmes (both excellent)
2d (4 picks): Randle El (very good), Sweed (bust), Smith-Schuster (good), Claypool (good)
3rd (6 picks): Wallace (good), Sanders (very good), Wheaton (good), Archer (kick returner only, so bust as receiver), Coates (poor), Johnson (good)

total 12 picks, 2 excellent, 7 good to very good, 3 poor to bust. Overall, they have devoted more high draft assets to WR than NE, and have fewer busts on average and more good players. I did not look to see whether injury played a factor in any of the poor / bust players..

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt · Mar 13, 2022

The frustrating thing about Harry is that the red flaggiest thing about him was STRUGGLES TO GET SEPARATION (in college!), which has - predictably times ten - been a huge red flag for him in the pros. Meanwhile, any and every draft site had AJ and Deebo being ludicrously tremendous matches for the N.E. scheme. To whiff on that WR draft is truly abominable. Embarrassing. Almost unforgivably stupid. Except six Lombardis, so…you’re forgiven.

Mystic Merlin · Mar 13, 2022

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt said:
The frustrating thing about Harry is that the red flaggiest thing about him was STRUGGLES TO GET SEPARATION (in college!), which has - predictably times ten - been a huge red flag for him in the pros. Meanwhile, any and every draft site had AJ and Deebo being ludicrously tremendous matches for the N.E. scheme. To whiff on that WR draft is truly abominable. Embarrassing. Almost unforgivably stupid. Except six Lombardis, so…you’re forgiven.

I think this is revisionist history re: Deebo, but Harry over Brown is a very rough look.

NortheasternPJ · Mar 13, 2022

Mystic Merlin said:
I think this is revisionist history re: Deebo, but Harry over Brown is a very rough look.

The other one that bothers me greatly in that draft was Hunter Renfrow. He was such an obvious and great fit for the Pats offense and the Raiders take him in the 5th round.

slamminsammya · Mar 13, 2022

Jeez, everyone is so confident in how obvious things were in retrospect. Nothing about the draft is obvious - the guys who are paid the most to think about this stuff screw it up all the tme.

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt · Mar 13, 2022

Mystic Merlin said:
I think this is revisionist history re: Deebo, but Harry over Brown is a very rough look.

Not remotely. Deebo was tailor made for the Patriots system and was mocked to them EVERYWHERE for that very reason.

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt · Mar 13, 2022

slamminsammya said:
Jeez, everyone is so confident in how obvious things were in retrospect. Nothing about the draft is obvious - the guys who are paid the most to think about this stuff screw it up all the tme.

Not all the time. The Deebo thing was obvious. It’s bananas that they opted for Harry over him.

Super Nomario · Mar 14, 2022

Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt said:
Not remotely. Deebo was tailor made for the Patriots system and was mocked to them EVERYWHERE for that very reason.

I liked Deebo's tape better than Harry's, but he's two years older and was hurt a lot in college. Deebo did not have nearly the production profile Harry did.

nolasoxfan · Mar 14, 2022

NortheasternPJ said:
The other one that bothers me greatly in that draft was Hunter Renfrow. He was such an obvious and great fit for the Pats offense and the Raiders take him in the 5th round.

As a Clemson and Pats fan, this one gutted me.

Shelterdog · Mar 14, 2022

BaseballJones said:
Here are some scouting reports on Harry pre-draft:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/nkeal-harry

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/n-keal-harry/32004841-5265-4593-d716-d972ec2d4468

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2019nharry.php

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/3/27/18278402/nkeal-harry-nfl-draft-2019-new-england-patriots-scouting-report-wide-receiver-ranking

https://www.milehighreport.com/2019/3/28/18284459/nfl-draft-scouting-report-nkeal-harry

The reports definitely talked about his lack of speed and "twitchiness", but they all lauded him for size, strength, ability to catch the ball, and his great RAC ability. They ALL thought he would be very successful in the NFL. Not sure they all thought he should have been a first round pick (though some scouting reports had him in that round), but they all thought he would be good in the NFL.

So it wasn't like BB drafted some risky guy out of nowhere. He drafted a guy with plus-plus size and strength, plus ability to make tough, contested catches, plus ability to run after the catch. Sure, he wasn't fast. But the league has been littered with quality receivers throughout the years who weren't very fast, but who were good at pro football anyway. There was no reason, really, to think that he wouldn't at least be *good*.

He's not that slow for his size. His combine results are similar to a Josh Gordon, Terrell Owens or Dez Bryant's and those guys aren't slow (we're not drafting a super slow guy and saying well Anquan Bolden did it). Clearly as a Pat didn't show the same short area quickness as those guys did although I wonder if part of that is coordination/precision/balance related less than some explosive measurable power. Obviously they blew the pick but they blew it because they assumed a very productive college player with a ton of measurable athletic activity would also be able to figure out how to use/control his body to shield people, how to turn at 7 yards and not 6.5, how to make sharp cuts not round ones, how to coordinate feet and hands to beat press coverage, etc.

The teams that are right on Harry not figuing it out (or on Metcalf figuing it out) get to win games and their GMs get to keep their jobs etc, but it's not clear at all in retrospect.

Cellar-Door · Mar 14, 2022

Shelterdog said:
He's not that slow for his size. His combine results are similar to a Josh Gordon, Terrell Owens or Dez Bryant's and those guys aren't slow (we're not drafting a super slow guy and saying well Anquan Bolden did it). Clearly as a Pat didn't show the same short area quickness as those guys did although I wonder if part of that is coordination/precision/balance related less than some explosive measurable power. Obviously they blew the pick but they blew it because they assumed a very productive college player with a ton of measurable athletic activity would also be able to figure out how to use/control his body to shield people, how to turn at 7 yards and not 6.5, how to make sharp cuts not round ones, how to coordinate feet and hands to beat press coverage, etc.

The teams that are right on Harry not figuing it out (or on Metcalf figuing it out) get to win games and their GMs get to keep their jobs etc, but it's not clear at all in retrospect.

The big miss was AJ Brown, but he and Harry were very similar testers at the combine. (Brown was 0.04 faster at the 40, Harry was a bit better on the jumps).

Bill Belichick and the Drafting of Wide Receivers

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