Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

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SouthernBoSox

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The problem here is the 3 team aspect of this. How in the world can you expect the Twins to throw anything more of substance in this deal? They are getting Maeda. You expect them to pay 2 top prospect? While the Dodgers pay Verdugo and Maeda?

If the added piece is anything of substance it has to go to come from the Dodgers.

I have to think the Twins are the least motivated party to this transaction
 

Green Monster

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Friedman seems absolutely averse to giving up anything. This is really his problem more than the Twins. I think his issue is if he gives up Gonsolin to make us whole then he needs Stripling back for depth and the Angels deal dies.
In that scenario they wouldn't need to involve MN so wouldn't Maeda provide the same depth as Stripling?
 

Average Game James

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The problem here is the 3 team aspect of this. How in the world can you expect the Twins to throw anything more of substance in this deal? They are getting Maeda. You expect them to pay 2 top prospect? While the Dodgers pay Verdugo and Maeda?

If the added piece is anything of substance it has to go to come from the Dodgers.

I have to think the Twins are the least motivated party to this transaction
I mean, if Graterol’s injury is the issue, then aren’t the Twins by definition giving up a less valuable asset than previously thought? A health Graterol is a top prospect; a less than healthy Graterol is a less valuable prospect. Opinions on the medicals can of course vary, but I can absolutely understand why LA thinks it’s on the Twins to add something to the deal.
 

Captaincoop

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The problem here is the 3 team aspect of this. How in the world can you expect the Twins to throw anything more of substance in this deal? They are getting Maeda. You expect them to pay 2 top prospect? While the Dodgers pay Verdugo and Maeda?

If the added piece is anything of substance it has to go to come from the Dodgers.

I have to think the Twins are the least motivated party to this transaction
The Twins just took a swing at dumping a risky arm for a sure thing MLB starter. I doubt they're in for much more than that.
 

Captaincoop

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And by the way, if the Twins were interested in Maeda, would they be interested in half-price Price?

Maybe there's something there. That gets us closer to the line without Mookie going anywhere yet.
 

Mooch

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I mean, if Graterol’s injury is the issue, then aren’t the Twins by definition giving up a less valuable asset than previously thought? A health Graterol is a top prospect; a less than healthy Graterol is a less valuable prospect. Opinions on the medicals can of course vary, but I can absolutely understand why LA thinks it’s on the Twins to add something to the deal.
Not only that, but the media amplification of Verdugo's past issues, current attitude and back concerns makes him damaged goods on the trade market as well, right? I think Bloom is merely maximizing his leverage here with his former boss. Smartly.
 

opes

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And by the way, if the Twins were interested in Maeda, would they be interested in half-price Price?

Maybe there's something there. That gets us closer to the line without Mookie going anywhere yet.
Why would the Twins want a half price(zing) david Price vs. Maeda at $3million? maeda the next 4 years will cost them 12mil, and the next 3 years for Price will be 45 mil. No way in hell the twins take that.
 

section15

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I would argue that if Bloom is happy to accept flawed medical reports on the centerpiece of a deal for the 2nd best player in baseball, that he's way less prepared for his job than we were lead to believe.

And this is the first time he's been in a major media market. The Tampa Bay area fans, and even the media - yes, Tampa Bay reporters who come here for info - this means YOU - they don't create the fishbowl that exists for the Red Sox.

If he did something like this in St. Petersburg, no one would notice or care.

Welcome to Boston, Mr. Bloom. If the Sox lose 95 games this year, it's all gonna be on YOU.
 

jon abbey

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Why would the Twins want a half price(zing) david Price vs. Maeda at $3million? maeda the next 4 years will cost them 12mil, and the next 3 years for Price will be 45 mil. No way in hell the twins take that.
If Maeda is in the rotation, he has a ton of incentives and will end up as an $8M or $10M player per season.
 

BaseballJones

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And this is the first time he's been in a major media market. The Tampa Bay area fans, and even the media - yes, Tampa Bay reporters who come here for info - this means YOU - they don't create the fishbowl that exists for the Red Sox.

If he did something like this in St. Petersburg, no one would notice or care.

Welcome to Boston, Mr. Bloom. If the Sox lose 95 games this year, it's all gonna be on YOU.
It's not all gonna be on Bloom, if he was given the directive to move Mookie and Price for the best deal he could get, but MOVE THEM, PERIOD. There's only so much he can do if that's a command from on high. Hard to blame him for that.
 

nighthob

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I mean, if Graterol’s injury is the issue, then aren’t the Twins by definition giving up a less valuable asset than previously thought? A health Graterol is a top prospect; a less than healthy Graterol is a less valuable prospect. Opinions on the medicals can of course vary, but I can absolutely understand why LA thinks it’s on the Twins to add something to the deal.
Except that Maeda isn’t that good. He’s an end of the rotation guy that gets expensive if he’s a full time starter, which is what the Twins need him to be. How much more are you expecting for that guy than a potential relief ace?
 

chawson

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Except that Maeda isn’t that good. He’s an end of the rotation guy that gets expensive if he’s a full time starter, which is what the Twins need him to be. How much more are you expecting for that guy than a potential relief ace?
Maeda is quite good, and especially against right-handed hitters. The incentive structure is also good for them, as what the Twins need most is somebody durable, since they’ve already got Hill, Pineda and Bailey on the staff.

They probably view Price as an additional health risk they can’t afford. I also figure that his recent history against their primary postseason opponent doesn’t help his case.
 

Average Game James

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Except that Maeda isn’t that good. He’s an end of the rotation guy that gets expensive if he’s a full time starter, which is what the Twins need him to be. How much more are you expecting for that guy than a potential relief ace?
The Twins very well might not want to give up more if they don’t think Maeda is worth more than a lottery ticket reliever. But they are the one trading the asset that has been devalued post medical record review, so it’s 100% reasonable for the other parties to expect the Twins should be the ones to add more to get the trade done.
 

nighthob

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Maeda is quite good, and especially against right-handed hitters. The incentive structure is also good for them, as what the Twins need most is somebody durable, since they’ve already got Hill, Pineda and Bailey on the staff.

They probably view Price as an additional health risk they can’t afford. I also figure that his recent history against their primary postseason opponent doesn’t help his case.
Sure, and as a full time starter he makes $8-$10 million as an end of the rotation guy. Which is still decent value for a solid if unspectacular pitcher. But how many top prospects are you expecting for that guy? You really think LA can get two top prospects for that? Then let them go out and find that deal, because Verdugo isn’t going to last the year in Boston.
 

nighthob

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The Twins very well might not want to give up more if they don’t think Maeda is worth more than a lottery ticket reliever. But they are the one trading the asset that has been devalued post medical record review, so it’s 100% reasonable for the other parties to expect the Twins should be the ones to add more to get the trade done.
They aren’t dealing a lottery ticket reliever, they’re dealing a guy whose arm issues mean that he can’t be a starter, but who absolutely can be a dominant reliever. And he’s perfectly good value for a 4/5 starter that’s on a slightly below market contract (because the incentives mean that his contract triples in price as a full time starter).

They aren’t dealing for pre-injury Chris Sale.
 

nighthob

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Why dont you think he would last the year? Because of his prior back issues?
Because the hotel room incident story isn’t going away in this market. In this fishbowl that story is just going to go on getting worse and the pressure to unload him is going to get unbearable for the organization. And he’s going to end up getting traded someplace like Tampa for pennies on the dollar as damaged goods.
 

sodenj5

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Friedman seems absolutely averse to giving up anything. This is really his problem more than the Twins. I think his issue is if he gives up Gonsolin to make us whole then he needs Stripling back for depth and the Angels deal dies.
Exactly. He’s saying it’s the Twins problem, but in reality it’s his problem. He’s trying to flip an undesirable asset in Kenta Maeda into a more desirable asset in Graterol, and now the Sox have deemed that unacceptable.

This is really LA’s problem.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Based on last year's totals Maeda would have made $7.75mil.
Based on two years ago he would have made $5.6mil.

He could make up to $10mil but that seems highly unlikely since he hasn't hit 175 ip and 30+ starts since 2016.
 

nighthob

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Exactly. He’s saying it’s the Twins problem, but in reality it’s his problem. He’s trying to flip an undesirable asset in Kenta Maeda into a more desirable asset in Graterol, and now the Sox have deemed that unacceptable.

This is really LA’s problem.
Honestly Boston should just turn around and deal Betts off to someone in LA’s way like Atlanta or Washington and then let Friedman explain to the fans why Jeter Downs (or whatever) was so important to them that it was better to let Mookie hit four home runs off Clayton Kershaw than trade for him.
 

Average Game James

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They aren’t dealing a lottery ticket reliever, they’re dealing a guy whose arm issues mean that he can’t be a starter, but who absolutely can be a dominant reliever. And he’s perfectly good value for a 4/5 starter that’s on a slightly below market contract (because the incentives mean that his contract triples in price as a full time starter).

They aren’t dealing for pre-injury Chris Sale.
Lottery ticket reliever was probably hyperbole, but if his arm injuries mean he can’t be a starter, the guy is no longer a “top prospect.” His top prospect status was very much tied to his potential to one day be a #2/3 starter and that ceiling is gone, at least in the eyes of the Sox medical staff. And the injury issues could very well reduce his chances of being a top reliever too. So no, they aren’t going to be trading “two top prospects” if they add another asset to the deal. And Maeda on a moderately under market contract for 4 years that only pays if he’s healthy and pitching is quite valuable for a lower payroll team.

And really, my initial point was simply that it is entirely reasonable that LA expects the Twins, the team trading a now devalued asset, to make up the gap. Whether they actually will is TBD, but LA taking that position is in no way unreasonable.
 

nighthob

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Based on last year's totals Maeda would have made $7.75mil.
Based on two years ago he would have made $5.6mil.

He could make up to $10mil but that seems highly unlikely since he hasn't hit 175 ip and 30+ starts since 2016.
Great, then if he’s a starter that can’t pitch 175 innings, how much is LA expecting beyond a top relief prospect?
 

nighthob

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Lottery ticket reliever was probably hyperbole, but if his arm injuries mean he can’t be a starter, the guy is no longer a “top prospect.” His top prospect status was very much tied to his potential to one day be a #2/3 starter and that ceiling is gone, at least in the eyes of the Sox medical staff. So no, they aren’t going to be trading “two top prospects” if they add another asset to the deal. And Maeda on a moderately under market contract for 4 years that only pays if he’s healthy and pitching is quite valuable for a lower payroll team.

And really, my initial point was simply that it is entirely reasonable that LA expects the Twins, the team trading a now devalued asset, to make up the gap. Whether they actually will is TBD, but LA taking that position is in no way unreasonable.
So you’re saying that Boston got good value for Sparky Lyle? I’m sorry, but I can’t agree.
 

jon abbey

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Based on last year's totals Maeda would have made $7.75mil.
Based on two years ago he would have made $5.6mil.

He could make up to $10mil but that seems highly unlikely since he hasn't hit 175 ip and 30+ starts since 2016.
Because the Dodgers didn't let him, they shuttle guys in and out of the rotation to keep everyone's innings down.
 

j44thor

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Great, then if he’s a starter that can’t pitch 175 innings, how much is LA expecting beyond a top relief prospect?
Sinker/slider relievers with injury concerns have worked out really well in Boston recently...
 
We'd all rather be watching Betts on the Sox in 2020 and most want the Sox to spend more in 2020. But let's assume the Sox will do the best deal to shed payroll.

For those saying this is a bad deal and hoping the trade falls through: what's your specific proposal?

Option A: Dodgers/Twins deal
Lose: Betts & Price
Get: 2 major league ready players under team control
Save $42M in year 1, $70M over 3 years

Option B: Padres deal (assume straight 3 player deal, no $ exchanged)
Lose: Betts & Price
Get: Wil Myers
Save: $36.5M in year 1, $55.5M over 3 years

Option C: Be specific on your BATNA
Find a team that is willing to take on similar payroll & give up more than either of the above.

If Bloom is getting played, then surely there's a deal he could be making, but isn't. Given that the Betts/Price auction has been conducted in public for 4 months, I'm skeptical there is one.

My opinion: Option A >>> Option B, and there is no Option C.
 

jon abbey

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Option B: Padres deal (assume straight 3 player deal, no $ exchanged)
Lose: Betts & Price
Get: Wil Myers
Save: $36.5M in year 1, $55.5M over 3 years
The Padres don't want Price, they don't want to take on much money which is why they were never serious bidders once LAD got involved.
 

Rough Carrigan

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We'd all rather be watching Betts on the Sox in 2020 and most want the Sox to spend more in 2020. But let's assume the Sox will do the best deal to shed payroll.

For those saying this is a bad deal and hoping the trade falls through: what's your specific proposal?

Option A: Dodgers/Twins deal
Lose: Betts & Price
Get: 2 major league ready players under team control
Save $42M in year 1, $70M over 3 years

Option B: Padres deal (assume straight 3 player deal, no $ exchanged)
Lose: Betts & Price
Get: Wil Myers
Save: $36.5M in year 1, $55.5M over 3 years

Option C: Be specific on your BATNA
Find a team that is willing to take on similar payroll & give up more than either of the above.

If Bloom is getting played, then surely there's a deal he could be making, but isn't. Given that the Betts/Price auction has been conducted in public for 4 months, I'm skeptical there is one.

My opinion: Option A >>> Option B, and there is no Option C.
Weren't we going to get some kind of prospect from the Padres in addition to Wil Myers, such as the rumored Campusano?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I don't get all the Maeda bashing in this thread. He's a sub-4.00 FIP guy with an insane K-% on a team-friendly deal. What's not to like?
SSS and all that, but pretty good in the playoffs. High pressure and always against good teams, and he's been good.
 

jon abbey

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Weren't we going to get some kind of prospect from the Padres in addition to Wil Myers, such as the rumored Campusano?
Yeah, the Padres proposed deal was more like Betts for Myers (Padres likely covering a chunk of his money) and prospects. I still think the Dodgers are the only real choice which is why things are where they are but we'll see soon enough.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Yeah, that option B should look more like Mookie for a subsidized Wil Myers, Joey Lucchesi, Campusano and maybe another prospect. That still leaves the Price problem and the best piece you're getting is a catcher in A ball.

Once someone was willing to take Price with Mookie, and throw in a couple of prospects to boot, the Padres weren't really a realistic option. The Padres knew they weren't resigning Mookie, so their offers weren't all that strong.
 

dhappy42

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Weren't we going to get some kind of prospect from the Padres in addition to Wil Myers, such as the rumored Campusano?
At least one prospect.

Trading Betts+Price for Myers alone makes no sense. Price and Myers are roughly equal in (negative) value, so the Sox would be giving Mookie away for free. The Padres would have to include a top prospect like Luis Patino or Campusano plus one or two others.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Can someone please explain to me the framework? The way I see it is that the Dodgers traded Maeda for Graterol. Then the Dodgers traded Graterol to the Red Sox as part of a Betts/Price package. Graterol was a Dodger for 1/10 of a second. Objectively, the Red Sox complaint is with the Dodgers, not the Twins. Isn't it up to LA to make the Red Sox good, whether or not the Twins are re-involved?
 

E5 Yaz

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At least one prospect.

Trading Betts+Price for Myers alone makes no sense. Price and Myers are roughly equal in (negative) value, so the Sox would be giving Mookie away for free. The Padres would have to include a top prospect like Luis Patino or Campusano plus one or two others.
Again ... the Padres weren't in this deal for Price. They just wanted Mookie
 

E5 Yaz

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Can someone please explain to me the framework? The way I see it is that the Dodgers traded Maeda for Graterol. Then the Dodgers traded Graterol to the Red Sox as part of a Betts/Price package. Graterol was a Dodger for 1/10 of a second. Objectively, the Red Sox complaint is with the Dodgers, not the Twins. Isn't it up to LA to make the Red Sox good, whether or not the Twins are re-involved?
Because it doesn't work the way you see it.

Graterol is never a member of the Dodgers. It's just a three-hand handshake.
A gives X to B and Y to C.
B gives XX to C.
C gives YY and ZZ to A.
 
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