As with the draft, it is tough to give a completely accurate review of offseason moves until a few years down the road, but I think we have had enough evidence to start having some amateur conversations about some of Belichick's moves. To remind everyone, before the season started many pundits were saying that New England had "won" the offseason and likened this past offseason to 2007 when Belichick loaded up with offensive weapons.
I thought it would be best to separate transactions into big and small. Clearly, the backup offensive guard that sees about 50 snaps over the season doesn't quite have the same affect on the season as a starting CB. I also have decided to ignore the Jimmy Garoppolo move as that as been discussed in many other threads. However, I do want to revisit a couple big moves made last season that I think sort of kicked off the 2017 offseason much like the Garoppolo trade sort of kicked off the 2018 offseason.
Big Moves
Chandler Jones
Traded to AZ in exchange for Jonathan Cooper (released) and 61st overall draft pick (turned into Joe Thuney and Malcolm Mitchell).
This move has been discussed quite a bit, but how good would Jones look on the Patriots right now? An edge rusher who can get after the QB and more or less hold the edge in the run game seems to be exactly what the Patriots are missing. Clearly, Belichick nailed the financial aspect of this move by guessing that Jones would be able to sign for a monster number in the offseason (5 years, $83 million ($53 million in guarantees)).
Pass for now: This seems like a good move as the thinking seemed to be: "We won't be able to sign him, so lets get something rather than nothing." Obviously, the return looks worse this year than before the season with Thuney clearly the weak link along the line at times and Mitchell missing almost the whole season.
Jamie Collins
Traded to CLE in exchange for 103rd overall pick in 2017 trade (later flipped in the Cooks trade).
This move has been discussed quite a bit, but again how good would Collins look on the Patriots right now? An ultra athletic LB who can cover TEs and RBs out in space seems to be the other piece the defense is sorely lacking. Clearly, Belichick nailed the financial aspect of this move by guessing that Collins would be able to sign for a monster number in the offseason (4 years, $50 million ($26.5 million in guarantees)).
Pass for now: Similar to Jones, Belichick was right about the finances. But also like Jones I think we are seeing why teams pay up for these type of guys. Players with the skill sets of Jones and Collins don't exactly grow on trees. The choice seemed to be elite pass rusher (Jones), elite athletic LB (Collins), or elite CB (Gilmore). Belichick seemed to choose door #3.
Stephon Gilmore
Signed for 5 years, $65 million ($40 million guaranteed)
Gilmore has certainly had his adjustment period and people's view of this signing seems to depend on when in the season you ask them. Really struggled in the early going, turned it on for a few weeks, then got abused like the rest of the defense against Miami.
Pass: I expected an adjustment period (maybe not this much), but given the up and down success of Patriots CBs over the years the defensive system seems like it has complications. I think Gilmore has shown that he can play at that elite level, but like most corners there are types of players that he struggles to cover. I also like this move because CB seems to be an area that Belichick really struggles to identify talent through the draft (almost as bad as WR). The list of failed second and third round DBs is extremely long. So, when analyzing Jones, Collins, or Gilmore I have a lot more faith in his ability to eventually find an elite DL or LB through the draft than I do about adding an elite CB.
Brandin Cooks
Acquired from NO along with #118 overall in 2017 (forfeited) in exchange for #32 and #103 in the 2017 draft.
I think Cooks has proven that he is a top 10-15 receiver in the NFL in the Patriots system, but has also proven that he is not in the same realm as the truly elite guys who can get open regardless of coverage or who is covering them. He certainly has the ability to blow a game open, but can also completely disappear from the game.
Pass: Similar to Gilmore, I give this a pass grade because I think Belichick recognized that he has really struggled to identify WR talent through the draft, and given Cooks age and contract status he would rather take the sure thing than gamble with the first round pick.
Dont'a Hightower
Re-signed for 4 years, $43.5 million ($17 million guaranteed)
In somewhat predictable fashion, Hightower has only played 5 games this year and is currently on injured reserve. Hightower has averaged only 12 games a season over his 6 year career.
Fail: We all know how good Hightower can be when he is on the field, but for a coach that seems to stress your ability to be on the field and contributing over everything else, Hightower seemed like an odd choice to win the re-sign lottery. They structured his contract with his injury history in mind, but his consistent inability to stay on the field has really hurt the team this year.
2017 NFL Draft
Incomplete: The returns from the draft weren't expected to be much given the Cooks trade, Inflategate penalties, and other trades. However, when you add in key injuries to your top 2 picks on top of all that, the expectations drop even further. In fact, Wise is the only draft pick to contribute anything this season. Luckily, Butler has been a positive contribution and Hollister has helped here and there.
Small Moves
Pass:
Brandon Bolden
Brandon King
Cameron Fleming
Duron Harmon
Johnson Bademosi
Lawrence Guy
Marquis Flowers
Rex Burkhead
Rex Burkhead is the clear winner from the small moves department. The big mistake was giving Burkhead only a 1 year deal. He seemed to have a decent amount of suitors and could very well be playing himself right out of New England for 2018. Many of the moves to sure up special teams (Bolden, King, Bademosi, and Flowers) have seemingly worked out. Harmon has provided similar level of play to last year and Guy has been a bit up and down, but I would say more up than down.
Fail:
Alan Branch
Cassius Marsh
David Harris
Dwayne Allen
Kony Ealy
Mike Gillislee
Phillip Dorsett
This section is more what sparked me to start this thread. I don't remember an offseason in which Belichick had so many clear absolute failures. Ealy didn't make it out of training camp, Harris, Gillislee, and Dorsett have all had multiple games with zero contributions, and Marsh didn't make it through the season. Branch has taken a huge step back from his 2016 playing level and Allen might as well be replaced by an offensive lineman. Like every GM, Belichick has had his bad moves over the years, but I just don't remember this many who have essentially played well below replacement level. This also doesn't factor in guys like Long and Sheard that the Patriots elected not to re-sign.
Summary
For a team that "won the offseason", I would characterize this as actually a pretty poor effort so far. The only players that seem to be overperforming expectations are Burkhead, Butler, and maybe Wise and Bademosi (all roles players). Gilmore and Cooks appear to be performing at or slightly below expectations and almost every other news worthy signing or trade has played well below expectations. I think if the pundits were to go back and re-grade the offseason, I would expect the Patriots to struggle to do better than the middle of the pack. A far cry from one of Belichick's "best offseasons" where he was playing chess and everyone else was playing checkers.
I thought it would be best to separate transactions into big and small. Clearly, the backup offensive guard that sees about 50 snaps over the season doesn't quite have the same affect on the season as a starting CB. I also have decided to ignore the Jimmy Garoppolo move as that as been discussed in many other threads. However, I do want to revisit a couple big moves made last season that I think sort of kicked off the 2017 offseason much like the Garoppolo trade sort of kicked off the 2018 offseason.
Big Moves
Chandler Jones
Traded to AZ in exchange for Jonathan Cooper (released) and 61st overall draft pick (turned into Joe Thuney and Malcolm Mitchell).
This move has been discussed quite a bit, but how good would Jones look on the Patriots right now? An edge rusher who can get after the QB and more or less hold the edge in the run game seems to be exactly what the Patriots are missing. Clearly, Belichick nailed the financial aspect of this move by guessing that Jones would be able to sign for a monster number in the offseason (5 years, $83 million ($53 million in guarantees)).
Pass for now: This seems like a good move as the thinking seemed to be: "We won't be able to sign him, so lets get something rather than nothing." Obviously, the return looks worse this year than before the season with Thuney clearly the weak link along the line at times and Mitchell missing almost the whole season.
Jamie Collins
Traded to CLE in exchange for 103rd overall pick in 2017 trade (later flipped in the Cooks trade).
This move has been discussed quite a bit, but again how good would Collins look on the Patriots right now? An ultra athletic LB who can cover TEs and RBs out in space seems to be the other piece the defense is sorely lacking. Clearly, Belichick nailed the financial aspect of this move by guessing that Collins would be able to sign for a monster number in the offseason (4 years, $50 million ($26.5 million in guarantees)).
Pass for now: Similar to Jones, Belichick was right about the finances. But also like Jones I think we are seeing why teams pay up for these type of guys. Players with the skill sets of Jones and Collins don't exactly grow on trees. The choice seemed to be elite pass rusher (Jones), elite athletic LB (Collins), or elite CB (Gilmore). Belichick seemed to choose door #3.
Stephon Gilmore
Signed for 5 years, $65 million ($40 million guaranteed)
Gilmore has certainly had his adjustment period and people's view of this signing seems to depend on when in the season you ask them. Really struggled in the early going, turned it on for a few weeks, then got abused like the rest of the defense against Miami.
Pass: I expected an adjustment period (maybe not this much), but given the up and down success of Patriots CBs over the years the defensive system seems like it has complications. I think Gilmore has shown that he can play at that elite level, but like most corners there are types of players that he struggles to cover. I also like this move because CB seems to be an area that Belichick really struggles to identify talent through the draft (almost as bad as WR). The list of failed second and third round DBs is extremely long. So, when analyzing Jones, Collins, or Gilmore I have a lot more faith in his ability to eventually find an elite DL or LB through the draft than I do about adding an elite CB.
Brandin Cooks
Acquired from NO along with #118 overall in 2017 (forfeited) in exchange for #32 and #103 in the 2017 draft.
I think Cooks has proven that he is a top 10-15 receiver in the NFL in the Patriots system, but has also proven that he is not in the same realm as the truly elite guys who can get open regardless of coverage or who is covering them. He certainly has the ability to blow a game open, but can also completely disappear from the game.
Pass: Similar to Gilmore, I give this a pass grade because I think Belichick recognized that he has really struggled to identify WR talent through the draft, and given Cooks age and contract status he would rather take the sure thing than gamble with the first round pick.
Dont'a Hightower
Re-signed for 4 years, $43.5 million ($17 million guaranteed)
In somewhat predictable fashion, Hightower has only played 5 games this year and is currently on injured reserve. Hightower has averaged only 12 games a season over his 6 year career.
Fail: We all know how good Hightower can be when he is on the field, but for a coach that seems to stress your ability to be on the field and contributing over everything else, Hightower seemed like an odd choice to win the re-sign lottery. They structured his contract with his injury history in mind, but his consistent inability to stay on the field has really hurt the team this year.
2017 NFL Draft
Incomplete: The returns from the draft weren't expected to be much given the Cooks trade, Inflategate penalties, and other trades. However, when you add in key injuries to your top 2 picks on top of all that, the expectations drop even further. In fact, Wise is the only draft pick to contribute anything this season. Luckily, Butler has been a positive contribution and Hollister has helped here and there.
Small Moves
Pass:
Brandon Bolden
Brandon King
Cameron Fleming
Duron Harmon
Johnson Bademosi
Lawrence Guy
Marquis Flowers
Rex Burkhead
Rex Burkhead is the clear winner from the small moves department. The big mistake was giving Burkhead only a 1 year deal. He seemed to have a decent amount of suitors and could very well be playing himself right out of New England for 2018. Many of the moves to sure up special teams (Bolden, King, Bademosi, and Flowers) have seemingly worked out. Harmon has provided similar level of play to last year and Guy has been a bit up and down, but I would say more up than down.
Fail:
Alan Branch
Cassius Marsh
David Harris
Dwayne Allen
Kony Ealy
Mike Gillislee
Phillip Dorsett
This section is more what sparked me to start this thread. I don't remember an offseason in which Belichick had so many clear absolute failures. Ealy didn't make it out of training camp, Harris, Gillislee, and Dorsett have all had multiple games with zero contributions, and Marsh didn't make it through the season. Branch has taken a huge step back from his 2016 playing level and Allen might as well be replaced by an offensive lineman. Like every GM, Belichick has had his bad moves over the years, but I just don't remember this many who have essentially played well below replacement level. This also doesn't factor in guys like Long and Sheard that the Patriots elected not to re-sign.
Summary
For a team that "won the offseason", I would characterize this as actually a pretty poor effort so far. The only players that seem to be overperforming expectations are Burkhead, Butler, and maybe Wise and Bademosi (all roles players). Gilmore and Cooks appear to be performing at or slightly below expectations and almost every other news worthy signing or trade has played well below expectations. I think if the pundits were to go back and re-grade the offseason, I would expect the Patriots to struggle to do better than the middle of the pack. A far cry from one of Belichick's "best offseasons" where he was playing chess and everyone else was playing checkers.