For most of the year, Sox fans' main concerns were laser-focused on the anemic offense and struggling/injured positional prospects. Then today I came across this alarming graphic from ESPN's Mark Simon on the state of MLB pitching (before tonight's games):
Boston's collection of arms occupies that lonely corner at lower-left as owners of both the lowest K rate and highest walk rate in MLB over the past 19 days. Here's the team-by-team data in tabular form, sorted by lowest K/BB.
We all expected a drop-off with the departures of Lester & Lackey. And the staff has clearly struggled of late with Webster, RDLR and most recently Kelly missing the zone with alarming frequency.
But I had no idea it was this bad.
The sample is 161 innings over 17 games, including the 19-inning marathon in Anaheim. If we take just relief outings, the Sox are in the middle of the pack (17th lowest K/BB) and actually in the top half. Which is worse than we'd expect even with Miller now elsewhere, but it's clear that the relievers aren't the culprit here. The bullpen has thrown 61.1 IP, or 38% of the innings this month.
That leaves the starters. And the 2nd-worst rotation in terms of K/BB (the Angels at 1.82) is nearly 50% better than the Red Sox SPs (1.22). Here's the blow-by-blow:
[tablegrid=]DATE STARTER OPP SCORE RESULT IP BF H ER BB SO K/BB HR Pit Str Str % 2014-08-01 Anthony Ranaudo NYY W 4-3 GS-6, W 6.0 25 4 2 4 2 .50 1 91 53 58.2% 2014-08-02 Allen Webster NYY L 4-6 GS-3, L 2.2 16 2 4 6 1 .17 0 71 39 54.9% 2014-08-03 Clay Buchholz NYY L 7-8 GS-5 5.0 27 8 7 5 5 1.00 0 114 61 53.5% 2014-08-05 Rubby De La Rosa STL L 2-3 GS-6 6.0 25 6 1 3 3 1.00 0 94 57 60.6% 2014-08-06 Joe Kelly STL W 2-1 GS-7 7.0 27 3 1 4 2 .50 0 97 53 54.6% 2014-08-07 Brandon Workman STL L 2-5 GS-6, L 5.1 23 6 4 2 5 2.50 1 96 61 63.5% 2014-08-08 Allen Webster LAA W 4-2 GS-7, W 6.2 27 4 2 2 3 1.50 0 84 53 63.1% 2014-08-09 Clay Buchholz LAA L 4-5 GS-8 8.0 31 6 3 2 8 4.00 1 120 76 63.3% 2014-08-10 Rubby De La Rosa LAA W 3-1 GS-8, W 7.0 29 5 1 3 8 2.67 1 110 67 60.9% 2014-08-12 Joe Kelly CIN W 3-2 GS-6 6.0 24 5 2 3 4 1.33 0 103 57 55.3% 2014-08-13 Anthony Ranaudo CIN W 5-4 GS-6, W 6.0 27 8 4 1 1 1.00 2 91 61 67.0% 2014-08-14 Allen Webster HOU W 9-4 GS-6, W 6.0 25 5 3 3 2 .67 1 85 56 65.9% 2014-08-15 Clay Buchholz HOU L 3-5 GS-7 7.0 29 7 2 2 9 4.50 1 110 75 68.2% 2014-08-16 Rubby De La Rosa HOU W 10-7 GS-4 4.0 24 9 6 4 2 .50 1 89 53 59.6% 2014-08-17 Joe Kelly HOU L 1-8 GS-4, L 4.0 24 7 7 6 3 .50 2 91 49 53.8% 2014-08-18 Brandon Workman LAA L 2-4 GS-7, L 7.0 26 6 2 2 5 2.50 0 89 59 66.3% 2014-08-19 Allen Webster LAA L 3-4 GS-6 6.0 26 7 3 2 3 1.50 0 99 60 60.6% TOTAL 99.2 435 98 54 54 66 1.22 11 1634 990 60.6%
I figured that with Bradley playing Gold Glove-caliber CF for most of the month, Bogaerts moving more comfortably back to SS, Pedroia continuing his stellar play, and the amazing work of Vazquez behind the plate, even the young kids would feel more comfortable executing the game plans, trusting their pitches, and pounding the zone. Clearly that hasn't been the case, despite only 1 of the 54 August runs allowed by Sox starters being unearned.
Did intentional walks skew the data? Nope. Sox starters haven't issued one yet this month.
Is Buchholz's continuing saga of command & control meltdowns impacting the numbers? Well, his first start of the month was another disaster (5 IP, 5 BB, 5 K), but his next two were among his best of the year (15 IP, 17 K, just 4 BB). In fact, take that pair of outings away and the team's SP have more walks (50) than strikeouts (49). And again, this was all prior to tonight's reversion to ugliness. So, a big fat "no".
Other observations that the K/BB graph doesn't illustrate:
* Sox SP in August have been getting swings inside the zone at a fair-to-middlin' rate (64.9%, 18th in MLB). But they've only coaxed the 2nd-lowest swing rate on pitches outside the zone (27.3%), ahead of only LAA (26.7%).
* Sox SP in August have the 4th-lowest swinging strike percentage in the majors (7.4%), in front of STL, MIA & LAA.
* Their August xFIP is a worst-in-MLB 4.96, nearly a half-run worse than #29 LAA. Making this even harder to swallow is that the Yankees top the list at 3.02.
Are we merely seeing the expected (i.e. lousy) combined results of trading the team's two best SPs, along with the growing pains of prospects? Is it an unusually bad or unexpected stretch even considering the constraints noted above? Or has the coaching staff suddenly and inexplicably lost the rudder and halyards as they navigate gale winds and heavy seas, without the ability to marshal their young arms, concoct effective game plans, or foster confidence?
Boston's collection of arms occupies that lonely corner at lower-left as owners of both the lowest K rate and highest walk rate in MLB over the past 19 days. Here's the team-by-team data in tabular form, sorted by lowest K/BB.
We all expected a drop-off with the departures of Lester & Lackey. And the staff has clearly struggled of late with Webster, RDLR and most recently Kelly missing the zone with alarming frequency.
But I had no idea it was this bad.
The sample is 161 innings over 17 games, including the 19-inning marathon in Anaheim. If we take just relief outings, the Sox are in the middle of the pack (17th lowest K/BB) and actually in the top half. Which is worse than we'd expect even with Miller now elsewhere, but it's clear that the relievers aren't the culprit here. The bullpen has thrown 61.1 IP, or 38% of the innings this month.
That leaves the starters. And the 2nd-worst rotation in terms of K/BB (the Angels at 1.82) is nearly 50% better than the Red Sox SPs (1.22). Here's the blow-by-blow:
[tablegrid=]
I figured that with Bradley playing Gold Glove-caliber CF for most of the month, Bogaerts moving more comfortably back to SS, Pedroia continuing his stellar play, and the amazing work of Vazquez behind the plate, even the young kids would feel more comfortable executing the game plans, trusting their pitches, and pounding the zone. Clearly that hasn't been the case, despite only 1 of the 54 August runs allowed by Sox starters being unearned.
Did intentional walks skew the data? Nope. Sox starters haven't issued one yet this month.
Is Buchholz's continuing saga of command & control meltdowns impacting the numbers? Well, his first start of the month was another disaster (5 IP, 5 BB, 5 K), but his next two were among his best of the year (15 IP, 17 K, just 4 BB). In fact, take that pair of outings away and the team's SP have more walks (50) than strikeouts (49). And again, this was all prior to tonight's reversion to ugliness. So, a big fat "no".
Other observations that the K/BB graph doesn't illustrate:
* Sox SP in August have been getting swings inside the zone at a fair-to-middlin' rate (64.9%, 18th in MLB). But they've only coaxed the 2nd-lowest swing rate on pitches outside the zone (27.3%), ahead of only LAA (26.7%).
* Sox SP in August have the 4th-lowest swinging strike percentage in the majors (7.4%), in front of STL, MIA & LAA.
* Their August xFIP is a worst-in-MLB 4.96, nearly a half-run worse than #29 LAA. Making this even harder to swallow is that the Yankees top the list at 3.02.
Are we merely seeing the expected (i.e. lousy) combined results of trading the team's two best SPs, along with the growing pains of prospects? Is it an unusually bad or unexpected stretch even considering the constraints noted above? Or has the coaching staff suddenly and inexplicably lost the rudder and halyards as they navigate gale winds and heavy seas, without the ability to marshal their young arms, concoct effective game plans, or foster confidence?
