Assorted AFC Thoughts

[tims4wins]

Thought we could have a general thread on the AFC, and we can refine this into the playoff picture as we get into the second half of the year. For now...

• Seems like the AFC is a three-horse race: Denver, Pittsburgh, and NE
  • Denver D is just ridiculously good, and seems like their offense is contributing a bit more this year
  • Pittsburgh offense is similarly scary good with Bell back
  • Think the Pats are generally in the class as these two teams, but they are more of an unknown at this point
  • Pats head to head games vs. both teams could / will be huge in determining playoff positioning
  • Going to Denver again would suck
  • Would be nice to only have to play one of these two in the playoffs and not both back to back
• Seems to be a clear drop-off after these three teams
  • Houston doesn't / won't scare anybody
  • Cincy is likely pretty good but not as scary as years past without Jones and Sanu
  • Raiders will be a threat to make the playoffs but not consistent or experienced enough to be a true threat
  • KC is also a good team and will contend for a WC but can't see them being better than last year
  • Baltimore is likely to fade, got lucky the first few weeks, brutal division
• Don't really see any of the east teams contending for a playoff spot
  • Miami stinks
  • Jets schedule the next few weeks is brutal (though if they can somehow win 2 of 3 to get to 3-4 overall they could sneak back into it)
  • Bills may actually have the best chance of the bunch given their remaining schedule, win in hand against the Pats, and get them at home in the next meeting
• Pretty much everyone else sucks: Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indy, and SD
  • Indy and SD don't suck in the same class but they both have major issues that will prevent them from even being a .500 team

 

[dbn]

My first thought after reading your first bullet point was "there will be another team that will surprise us and be good, I bet", but it's difficult to see who, if anyone, works their way into contention. I guess maybe Cincinnati (as you mention), but they've looked at sea a lot of what I've seen of them so far.

If I had to guess the playoff teams right now, I think NE, PGH, DEN, and HOU (by default) are going to win their divisions, and the WCs will be two of BUF, CIN, OAK, KC, but I have no idea how to handicap them right now.

Denver's schedule, I think, gives them the inside track to the #1 seed. Unless you think @NO is tough, their only difficult out-of-division opponent left they get at home (NE), whereas (as you say, again) NE has to travel to both DEN and PGH. PGH's only tough out-of-division opponent is home vs NE unless you consider home vs DAL tough. NE is going to have to be pretty awesome to get the #1 seed (which very well may be the case; make it happen Pats!)

 

[Captaincoop]

The Pats have started 3-1 with two of the 10(?) best offensive players in the NFL waiting to make their first contributions. IMHO, they are the most sure thing in the AFC. Agree that Denver and Pittsburgh are the other two in the top tier, but I wouldn't put either of them ahead of the Pats.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think the bottom line is that NE is going to have to beat Denver in Denver if they are to get to the Super Bowl. If they beat them in the regular season, that could give them the tiebreaker over Denver, meaning if they face off again it probably would be in Foxboro. But if they don't beat them in Denver, they'd almost certainly have to travel to Denver for the AFCCG and win at that point.

So one way or another, I think the Pats need to win a game in Denver this year.

I think through 8 games, the Pats will be either 7-1 or 6-2, depending on what happens in Pittsburgh. I think of their last 8 games, several could be tough, but the biggies (besides Denver) are at home, except for the Miami road game, which always gives the Pats fits. I see no worse than 6-2 there as well. So I think NE goes 12-4 at worst.

Denver will likely pummel Atlanta this week (don't trust Matt Ryan at all), but they have to travel to KC, Oakland, and New Orleans, plus the Patriots come to town. If NE wins that, they could have the same record with NE holding the tiebreaker.

Pittsburgh still has to play New England, at Baltimore, and at Cincy. Those three could be losses pretty easily.

I agree it's a three horse race in the AFC. Houston is not really in the mix, IMO.

Ideally, of course, NE gets the #1 seed, and Denver and Pittsburgh have to play each other in the divisional round.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Pats control their own destiny for the #1 seed. If they beat both Denver and Pittsburgh, they'll be #1. If they split, they easily could be playing Wild Card Weekend.

 

[ifmanis5]

No doubt it's a 3 team picture. Broncos and Steelers don't play each other while Denver has an easy schedule and is my bet for best record unless they get injuries. Would love to see the Pats get to the playoffs actually healthy this time with Brady, Lewis, Gronk and the other weapons all at full speed.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

I agree with the top 3 of Denver, Pitt, and New England. I don't see how anyone can disagree. However, for the sake of discussion, and in the effort to find the next team, I think Oakland is best poised to make the push into this group. Their defense is suspect, but has gotten better the past two weeks and should be even better when Aldon Smith returns from suspension and Mario Edwards returns from injury. Their offense is already among the best in the league and, given its youth, should continue to grow and get better. Also, while all of their wins have been close (so was their loss, for that matter), they have played 3 of 4 on the road thus far, and on the east coast, in the early slot, which is not easy for a west coast team (ironically, they've won all 3 of these games while losing their lone home game).

Despite Denver's recent success, this is still predominately a QB driven league, and Derek Carr appears to be nearing the top 5. I saw yesterday that PFF has him ranked as the #1 QB thus far, and from what I've seen that's a legit ranking. If he continues to play at that level, they can beat anyone and go on a run.

The one caveat, as briefly noted above, is that their youth could work against them instead of working for them.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

There is a fairly good chance that at least one of the NE/PIT/DEN trio is decimated by injuries. While no other team seems all that good (possible exception of OAK), team record is never perfectly correlated with quality, due to all the variance elements in terms of injuries, ingame luck, schedule quirks, etc. While far ahead of everybody else right now, there is almost certainly a > 50% chance that NE/PIT/DEN are not the 1-3 seeds in the playoffs in some order, as for that to happen you need a fairly big parlay to occur in which all three teams get reasonably lucky with injuries and bounces.

 

[Marciano490]

What's the story behind Oakland's lackluster D? I thought they were expected to be a strength.

 

[RoyHobbs]

BUF can make some noise as a Wildcard, I think, and not just because they beat the favorites last week. Their physical game is something to be reckoned with. I also wonder if Tyrod is actually not that bad, or not as bad as the metrics say, at least. I would like to believe in OAK/VEGAS if only because Gunfighter is a dude on here whose attitude and posts I've always liked...but beyond Carr, I don't know much about the consistency of that squad.

 

[pappymojo]

I think that injuries will be what determines who of the top three AFC teams

BUF can make some noise as a Wildcard, I think, and not just because they beat the favorites last week. Their physical game is something to be reckoned with. I also wonder if Tyrod is actually not that bad, or not as bad as the metrics say, at least. I would like to believe in OAK/VEGAS if only because Gunfighter is a dude on here whose attitude and posts I've always liked...but beyond Carr, I don't know much about the consistency of that squad.

It's certainly interesting as when offensive coordinator Greg Roman was fired it was assumed that Rexie was covering his considerable backside, but their offense does look a little more feisty since then even with Watkins being hurt. Of course, it's really hard to draw a lot of conclusions from the Bills/Pats game.

 

[KiltedFool]

PIT is already dealing with a significant number of injuries on their OL and in their secondary. How well they patch things together until people can return will likely tell the tale of their final record.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

It's certainly interesting as when offensive coordinator Greg Roman was fired it was assumed that Rexie was covering his considerable backside, but their offense does look a little more feisty since then even with Watkins being hurt. Of course, it's really hard to draw a lot of conclusions from the Bills/Pats game.

Rex's teams are always feisty when he can pitch a story - the problem is they can't maintain it week over week. It gets exhausting when every week is the superbowl.

Of the big 3, Pittsburgh is the only one that I see injuries knocking them off their division pedestal - I don't think the Ravens are as good as their record indicates, but I think the Bengals are better than their record indicates. Oakland looks pretty decent, but I think Denver would basically need to lose Von Miller for it to make a big difference on the defense - and they've been winning the last 2 years on defense alone. NE has already proven they can beat most teams without their two best players - and Belichick is just too good at gameplanning to lose the easy games unless injuries are absolutely catastrophic.

 

[pappymojo]

Of the big 3, Pittsburgh is the only one that I see injuries knocking them off their division pedestal - I don't think the Ravens are as good as their record indicates, but I think the Bengals are better than their record indicates. Oakland looks pretty decent, but I think Denver would basically need to lose Von Miller for it to make a big difference on the defense - and they've been winning the last 2 years on defense alone. NE has already proven they can beat most teams without their two best players - and Belichick is just too good at gameplanning to lose the easy games unless injuries are absolutely catastrophic.

For the AFC West, if Harris, Talib or CJ Anderson suffered a significant injury/got suspended, I think it would open the door for Oakland to sneak past Denver.

 

[JGray38]

Cinci just got Burfict back last week, and Eifert should be returning soon. They've been struggling in the red zone, settling for field goals- last in TD% in the red zone around 30%. If (a reasonable if- there's concerns about a new back injury) Eifert can return in the next few weeks and get back to his 1 TD/game average, they should look a lot better on offense.

 

[BaseballJones]

AFC Standings:

1. Den 4-1
2. Pit 4-1
3. NE 4-1
4. Oak 4-1
5. Hou 3-2
6. Bal 3-2
7. Buf 3-2
8. KC 2-2
9. Cin 2-3
10. Ten 2-3
11. Ind 2-3

How I'd rank them right now:

1. NE - 3-1 without Brady. 1-0 in blowout fashion with him. They get the nod over Pittsburgh because they've done this without Brady and now they have him back. Point differential: Pit 139/93/+46, NE 114/74/+40. The Pats D is much better than Pittsburgh's. And the offense was without Brady for four games (and, really, Gronk too). So it's markedly improved.

2. Pit - Solid all the way around. Will be ahead of Denver until Siemian comes back.

3. Den - Still a great defense. Will struggle with Lynch at QB. See, other teams, it's amazing what the Patriots did with their #2 and #3 QB, isn't it?

4. Oak - I'm getting convinced. Not fully on the bandwagon, but I'm putting my feet on the railings.

5. KC - The best of the rest.

6. Buf - Eh...I guess.

This would make the playoffs:

1. NE (AFCE)
2. Pit (AFCN)
3. Den (AFCW)
4. Hou (AFCS, I suppose)
5. Oak (WC)
6. KC (WC)

I think it's clear that with Brady, the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC.

 

[RoyHobbs]

To me, BUF can beat every team on there except maybe PIT. DEN also strikes me as now ripe for the picking...if only their home field advantage would evaporate, but alas.

 

[54thMA]

DEN also strikes me as now ripe for the picking...if only their home field advantage would evaporate, but alas.

If their QB keeps playing like he did today, it will.

His Curly Howard impression today in the pocket was something else.

He sucked today.

A great defense will only get you so far, you need to score in an offense happy league that is todays NFL.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

AFC Standings:

1. Den 4-1
2. Pit 4-1
3. NE 4-1
4. Oak 4-1

I think it's clear that with Brady, the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC.

Hey man, based on conference record and tie breakers, the Raiders would be the #1 seed if it ended today. Don't take this from me!

AFC Standings:

I think it's clear that with Brady, the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC.

But, yes, this.

 

[RoDaddy]

We're 4-1 already, now with Brady back and more rested than ever, and loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. And 4 days ago, Vegas picked us as favorites to win the SB. Irregardless of whether we do, I remind myself how great and unique it is that we're still on this amazing ride led by BB and TB

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah Buffalo right now is the clear #5 to me. They should get to 5-2 and could well be in first in the AFC East thru 7 games

 

[TheMoralBully]

I wouldn't put NE's D clearly above Pitt's. They were basically dead even in DVOA and points allowed last year, and this year the Steelers have looked decent again in every game but one. I like NE's ability to match up and slow the Steelers a little better, but I don't really see defense as a differentiating factor.

The Patriots are #1 to me because of how hard their offense is going to be to bottle up. They have crazy mis-matches at TE, WRs who run great routes and work well with Brady and now they have Hogan making plays down field. It's all looking pretty tailor-made for Brady. And it's obviously a gigantic question mark, but we still have Lewis coming back. As good as White has been, when Lewis went down last year the offense went from the kind that breaks records to a very good unit (before all of the other injuries). It's obviously a pretty low chance he comes back resembling the player he was last year, but if he does I see a pretty big gap between the Pats and the second best offense.

But NE and Pitt are obviously #1 and #2 to me, by a clear margin.

 

[mauf]

AFC Standings:

1. Den 4-1
2. Pit 4-1
3. NE 4-1
4. Oak 4-1
5. Hou 3-2
6. Bal 3-2
7. Buf 3-2
8. KC 2-2
9. Cin 2-3
10. Ten 2-3
11. Ind 2-3

How I'd rank them right now:

1. NE - 3-1 without Brady. 1-0 in blowout fashion with him. They get the nod over Pittsburgh because they've done this without Brady and now they have him back. Point differential: Pit 139/93/+46, NE 114/74/+40. The Pats D is much better than Pittsburgh's. And the offense was without Brady for four games (and, really, Gronk too). So it's markedly improved.

2. Pit - Solid all the way around. Will be ahead of Denver until Siemian comes back.

3. Den - Still a great defense. Will struggle with Lynch at QB. See, other teams, it's amazing what the Patriots did with their #2 and #3 QB, isn't it?

4. Oak - I'm getting convinced. Not fully on the bandwagon, but I'm putting my feet on the railings.

5. KC - The best of the rest.

6. Buf - Eh...I guess.

This would make the playoffs:

1. NE (AFCE)
2. Pit (AFCN)
3. Den (AFCW)
4. Hou (AFCS, I suppose)
5. Oak (WC)
6. KC (WC)

I think it's clear that with Brady, the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC.

This seems basically right, except I'd put Buffalo ahead of KC, and I think the Colts will be slightly less shitty than the Watt-less Texans.

Pats look like the best team in the conference. As expected, however, DFG cost them a game, and they caught a tough break with PIT and DEN both being road games. Winning HFA will be a heavy lift.

 

[tims4wins]

Have to consider Denver in a totally different tier than the Pats and Pittsburgh after last night

 

[jsinger121]

Have to consider Denver in a totally different tier than the Pats and Pittsburgh after last night

Agreed. They were living on the edge with their hot start anyways. To lay an egg against a pitiful Charger team shows you are not in the same tier as New England and Pittsburgh.

 

[tims4wins]

My concern about fighting them for HFA is basically gone. They are going to have a huge battle on their hands to simply win that division with Oakland.

Which basically means I am not concerned about a bye any more, I think that is a virtual lock, and playing at Pittsburgh for the AFC title is simply not daunting

 

[rodderick]

My concern about fighting them for HFA is basically gone. They are going to have a huge battle on their hands to simply win that division with Oakland.

Which basically means I am not concerned about a bye any more, I think that is a virtual lock, and playing at Pittsburgh for the AFC title is simply not daunting

I think facing that offense on the road is 100% daunting. The Patriots don't exactly have a stellar record away from Foxborough in the postseason, and the Steelers are a pretty good team. On the other hand, if the Pats get homefield, only a meltdown keeps them away from the Super Bowl.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

The reverence of the Steelers around here even going back to last year is a little confusing. Denver loses on the road on a short week without Kubiak and with a banged up QB to a decent team that's just found ways to lose. That's death and worse than the Steelers getting curb stomped by an Eagles team that while they've had a nice start, isn't exactly a Super Bowl favorite?

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

The reverence of the Steelers around here even going back to last year is a little confusing

Yeah, me too. I get that teams are different every year, but during the Tom Brady Era - the Patriots are 4-1 against the Steelers at home, and 4-2 away. Two of the games at Heinz Field were playoff games, and the Patriots won both.

Brady seems to love playing against that defense.

 

[Toe Nash]

Well Denver also just got trounced, at home, to a Falcons team that while they've had a nice start, isn't exactly a SB favorite. That game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. Add that to last night and I think they have big questions until they show they can move the ball.

 

[Super Nomario]

The reverence of the Steelers around here even going back to last year is a little confusing. Denver loses on the road on a short week without Kubiak and with a banged up QB to a decent team that's just found ways to lose. That's death and worse than the Steelers getting curb stomped by an Eagles team that while they've had a nice start, isn't exactly a Super Bowl favorite?

I think it's two things: Pittsburgh's O is overrated because they have a bunch of fantasy studs, and their D is overrated because the Steelers traditionally have a great D, even though they haven't really had a top defensive unit since 2012.

 

[TheMoralBully]

The Steelers had the ball with a chance to win late in Denver last year, without Brown and Williams. They were really good by any measure, and that was without Le'veon Bell. They've been every bit as good this year; even with the blowout loss to Philly, they're #1 in the AFC in point differential, #4 overall in DVOA and they have a healthy Le'veon Bell. They're a really good football team, I'm not sure what the confusion is. I don't think Denver is sunk because of the last two weeks either, though.

 

[rodderick]

The reverence of the Steelers around here even going back to last year is a little confusing. Denver loses on the road on a short week without Kubiak and with a banged up QB to a decent team that's just found ways to lose. That's death and worse than the Steelers getting curb stomped by an Eagles team that while they've had a nice start, isn't exactly a Super Bowl favorite?

I'd rather play at Pittsburgh that at Denver, but the Steelers have a very good quarterback with a ton of weapons at his disposal, and that's always dangerous. We haven't seen what their offense is capable of when everyone is healthy and available, and I wouldn't want to be the one to find out. If we're at home, give me either team and I'm very confident.

 

[dcmissle]

We're only 5 weeks in -- 6 in Denver's case -- and react too quickly, up and down.

From a Patriots standpoint, talk to me after this 3-week stretch that features Cincy, at Pittsburgh, at Buffalo. I'm not crowning anybody yet.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Well Denver also just got trounced, at home, to a Falcons team that while they've had a nice start, isn't exAnd itactly a SB favorite. That game wasn't nearly as close as the final score. Add that to last night and I think they have big questions until they show they can move the ball.

Well yeah, if Siemian is hurt or reverts to his seventh-round pedigree they're fucked. I just think he showed enough the first three weeks (and Kubiak is a smart enough mind) for the possibility that they can move the ball at a decent rate.

I think it's two things: Pittsburgh's O is overrated because they have a bunch of fantasy studs, and their D is overrated because the Steelers traditionally have a great D, even though they haven't really had a top defensive unit since 2012.

And it's not like they've had recent playoff success either. Coupled with the fact that they've rarely had an answer for the Pats offense and I fail to see why Pats fans gets so worked up about them.

 

[Hoodie Sleeves]

The Steelers had the ball with a chance to win late in Denver last year, without Brown and Williams. They were really good by any measure, and that was without Le'veon Bell. They've been every bit as good this year; even with the blowout loss to Philly, they're #1 in the AFC in point differential, #4 overall in DVOA and they have a healthy Le'veon Bell. They're a really good football team, I'm not sure what the confusion is. I don't think Denver is sunk because of the last two weeks either, though.

DVOA is pretty much a waste of time this early in the season - there's not enough data to do opponent adjustments, so most of it is just their preseason projections, and unadjusted game data.

Their 4 wins are all against teams with negative point differentials at this point - (Cin -18, KC -9, NYJ -44, WAS -7) - now, some of that negative is Pittsburgh themselves,and beating up on bad teams is what good teams are supposed to do - but getting killed by Philly is worrisome.

(Most of Pittsburgh's point differential comes from beating up on the Jets and Chiefs - and the Chiefs aren't only hugely negative because they beat up on the Jets)

 

[TheMoralBully]

They finished strong last year, though. Finishing the year with a top 5 offense, top 10 defense and losing to the eventual super bowl champs without your two best players means you were a contender. They seem every bit as good this year, if not a little better. I'm not sitting in fear of NE having to play them, but relative to every other team in the AFC I'm not sure how they're overrated. I would pick them to have a better season than Denver, at this point.

 

[Super Nomario]

They finished strong last year, though. Finishing the year with a top 5 offense, top 10 defense and losing to the eventual super bowl champs without your two best players means you were a contender. They seem every bit as good this year, if not a little better. I'm not sitting in fear of NE having to play them, but relative to every other team in the AFC I'm not sure how they're overrated. I would pick them to have a better season than Denver, at this point.

Top 10 defense? They were 11th in points, 21st in yards, and on a per-drive basis they were 13th in points, 17th in yards. They have a very good offense, average defense.

You might be right that still makes them the #2 team in the AFC ... we'll have to see.

 

[TheMoralBully]

Top 10 defense? They were 11th in points, 21st in yards, and on a per-drive basis they were 13th in points, 17th in yards. They have a very good offense, average defense.

You might be right that still makes them the #2 team in the AFC ... we'll have to see.

You know defense a lot better than I do, so I'll say I was wrong there. I'm not sure the gap between average and sitting in the latter half of the top 10 is significant enough for me to think they're going to finish any differently, though.

It's obviously silly to count Denver out after a bad two weeks where their backup QB started and then they were missing their head coach. I just think there has to be some regression in that defense, and have a hard time not knocking them pretty hard over their offense situation.

 

[DJnVa]

I think it's two things: Pittsburgh's O is overrated because they have a bunch of fantasy studs,

Are the just fantasy studs or actually really, really good players? Defending Brown and Bell will be a challenge.

 

[dbn]

This is just anecdotal, but it seems that, despite struggling at defending the deep ball in the past, the NEP have done so pretty well this year. I'm not sure how to quantify that, but just looking at their Y/A and Y/C against, they are both pretty good. I bring this up because it (also anecdotally) seems that the Steelers depend on the deep ball a bit.

Anyhow, just an assorted AFC thought at the 1/4 mark.


edit to expand on this thought.

Each game plan is unique. E.g., as someone here observed, vs HOU, NE played 4-2-5 with three safeties almost all game which helped to neutralize the WR deep threat. That worked very well, but if they try the same thing against PIT, Bell might have a huge day on the ground.

 

[Stitch01]

Top 10 defense? They were 11th in points, 21st in yards, and on a per-drive basis they were 13th in points, 17th in yards. They have a very good offense, average defense.

You might be right that still makes them the #2 team in the AFC ... we'll have to see.

So basically the Patriots with worse special teams.

 

[bakahump]

Besides Bell (and thats a decent sized "besides") the Pats handled the same team last year pretty handily despite letting Williams run for 127, Brown go 9 for 133 and Roethlisberger throwing for 351.

While our offensive numbers looked pedestrian in comparison.

Hard to figure out what to take from that game.

I think our offense is stronger (- Lewis, + Bennett, +Blount, + Hogan, Mitchell>Dobson)
Defense does not seem significantly changed (- Chandler (but he didnt do much) +Long, More exp for Ryan and Butler.)
As far as ST, I hope Ghost gets his stuff a little more together.

Meanwhile on Defense at least Pitt is going to be missing Dupree and Heyward which are significant pieces. Shazier also might be gimpy.

And of course they played in Foxborough.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Are the just fantasy studs or actually really, really good players? Defending Brown and Bell will be a challenge.

Yeah I don't get this. Antonio Brown is arguably the best WR in the league. LeVeon Bell is a top 5 RB whose skill set is about as diverse as it gets for a RB. The Steelers always seem to find quality secondary WRs so they haven't missed Bryant much. And Roethlisberger is a load to deal with. I don't think either team would struggle much to score on the other.

 

[Super Nomario]

Are the just fantasy studs or actually really, really good players? Defending Brown and Bell will be a challenge.

I don't mean to discredit Bell and Brown - they're great players, and among the top players at their positions. But because Brown and Bell are top players at fantasy-relevant positions, the impact they have as 2/11 of an offense is overrated. Brown has played extensively for Pittsburgh since 2011, during which time they've finished 21st, 22nd, 16th, 7th, and 4th in points scored. Bell was there for those last three (missing 10 games last year). There's a perception that this is an elite offense year-in-and-year-out because of the big names, but the overall team performance doesn't bear that out.

So basically the Patriots with worse special teams.

Pats had a better defense than Pittsburgh last year - 10th in points, 9th in yards (9th / 7th on a per-drive basis).

 

[Stitch01]

Ranked 11th and 12th (Pitt 11th) by DVOA, but I agree, I thought the Pats were slightly better.

I was thinking more of a description of this year's team. I still hold out hope the Pats defense turns out to be fringy top ten but, from what we've seen so far, this looks like the usual world class offense when Brady is healthy, an average defense that's susceptible to being carved up on short and medium range passes, and the usual really good special teams. That should be enough to be a real contender if they stay healthy.

Also might be worth noting, Steelers offense has had a pretty good sized home/road split for a couple of years now. Home/road splits are inherently tricky in football given sample size, but would rather get them at home in the playoffs just in case.

 

[KiltedFool]

Between suspensions and injuries the Steelers have rarely had their full offense on the field over the last few years. Their stated goal this year is to average 30 points a game, which is doable even with that stink bomb they laid in philly.

Coates is stepping in for Bryant relatively well, though he's also prone to drops, he does take the top off the defense and allow underneath stuff. Bell is a quality runner but has really done good things catching passes as well this season.

The defense is a matter of how quickly the young guys in the secondary can be developed, how much of a rotation they can establish on the line to keep Heyward and Tuitt fresh, and just generally overall health.

They've had a lot of injuries thus far this season, how well they come back from that and how healthy they are down the stretch will tell the tale.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Ranked 11th and 12th (Pitt 11th) by DVOA, but I agree, I thought the Pats were slightly better.

I was thinking more of a description of this year's team. I still hold out hope the Pats defense turns out to be fringy top ten but, from what we've seen so far, this looks like the usual world class offense when Brady is healthy, an average defense that's susceptible to being carved up on short and medium range passes, and the usual really good special teams. That should be enough to be a real contender if they stay healthy.

Also might be worth noting, Steelers offense has had a pretty good sized home/road split for a couple of years now. Home/road splits are inherently tricky in football given sample size, but would rather get them at home in the playoffs just in case.

The special teams have been extremely inconsistent so far. Allen started out terrible, but has bounced back. Ghost is having obvious issues with FGs but doing well with kickoffs. Coverage teams seem standard issue. I'm not sure one can call the unit as a whole 'really good'

 

[E5 Yaz]

The special teams have been extremely inconsistent so far. Allen started out terrible, but has bounced back. Ghost is having obvious issues with FGs but doing well with kickoffs. Coverage teams seem standard issue. I'm not sure one can call the unit as a whole 'really good'

How you wrote this paragraph without mentioning Cyrus Jones is beyond me

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah, Im making a track record based assumption there on ST. They're 14th by DVOA so far. Coverage teams have been close to the best in the league, punt returns and FGs have been bad but with Ghost and Edelman on the roster I feel good about some regression to the mean happening there with both.