Andrew Miller traded to Orioles

[nvalvo]

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Ranaudo is almost certainly coming up soon. 

 
He's most likely starting tomorrow.  It's his day in Pawtucket.  Kelly started last night so who else could take the ball tomorrow?

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Here's a recent scouting report that Professor Parks just tweeted.

 
sounds like a 4th or 5th starter at best, with a 50/50 chance of achieving that

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

This trade does not rate a "Thank you" thread?  

 

[nvalvo]

He's really young, though. 

 

[NickEsasky]

Wait he only has one first name. What happened to the plan?

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Wait he only has one first name. What happened to the plan?

Rod is a first name
 
Ed Rod
 
Plan intact
 
profit

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Horrible trade.

The front office should be shitcanned. Just awful. This trade proves they dont have a plan, except maybe that they are planning on selling the team. But you can bet they didnt plan on selling.

The Ben Cherrington sock puppet gets caught flatfooted again!

 

[rajendra82]

Wait he only has one first name. What happened to the plan?

 
Eduardo Jose (Hernandez) Rodriguez
 
Two last names so that we can make keep the team balance intact.

 

[Harry Hooper]

He actually sounds like a reasonably good return for Miller.

 
Yes, indeed.

 

[seageral]

Horrible trade.

The front office should be shitcanned. Just awful. This trade proves they dont have a plan, except maybe that they are planning on selling the team. But you can bet they didnt plan on selling.

The Ben Cherrington sock puppet gets caught flatfooted again!

I found this hilarious

 

[zenter]

For old time's sake I hope they asked Duquette to throw in a Catching prospect to sweeten the deal.

 
I laughed.
 
Can't ask for much more at this point, especially considering Miller's acquisition cost.

 

[foulkehampshire]

This gutless Redsox FO is disgraceful.
 
What a despicable bunch of trades; Ben Cherington should be ashamed. 
 
/JulE6

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Eduardo Jose (Hernandez) Rodriguez
 
Two last names so that we can make keep the team balance intact.

 
Two first names as well. He is the one prophesied to bring balance to The Plan.

 

[Drek717]

Rodriguez having a tough year in AA but he's only 21 and he was something like 60th in the preseason top 100

He also has a FIP of 3.54 (lower than last year), a BABIP of .328 (.296 in AA last year) and his LOB% is down to 61% this year.  In short, the Orioles AA fielding is doing him zero favors.
 
Interesting acquisition at only 21 years old.  Between he and Escobar, paired with Johnson and Owens, the Sox basically have a second wave of SPs (all 21-22) coming up directly behind Workman/Ranaudo/De La Rosa/Webster/Barnes.  Very interesting that the first group is all RHP while the second is all LHP.
 
That pitching depth.

 

[shepard50]

This gutless Redsox FO is disgraceful.
 
What a despicable bunch of trades; Ben Cherington should be ashamed. 
 
/JulE6

 
I can't hear the word disgraceful without thinking of him/her and seeing it's avatar.

 

[bellowthecat]

A google image search for Eduardo Rodriguez does not provide the desired result.

Whoaaaaaa no it doesn't.
 
Good return.  Not only a decent chip but it also weakens the Os.

 

[nvalvo]

He also has a FIP of 3.54 (lower than last year), a BABIP of .328 (.296 in AA last year) and his LOB% is down to 61% this year.  In short, the Orioles AA fielding is doing him zero favors.
 
 

Basically all of the pitchers on this year's Bowie Bay Sox have high hit rates and elevated BABIPs. 
 
I suspect the defense. 

 

[rundugrun]

Here's a recent scouting report that Professor Parks just tweeted.

That scouting report makes me think of Felix Doubront.

 

[foulkehampshire]

That scouting report makes me think of Felix Doubront.

 
If Felix Doubront wasn't a lazy headcase he would have been a decent mid-rotation SP.

 

[uncannymanny]

 
We really don't have that big a stockpile of high-minors pitching any more, now that at least three of them are going to be in the big league rotation permanently.

 
This seems like a premature assertion.

 

[Drek717]

Basically all of the pitchers on this year's Bowie Bay Sox have high hit rates and elevated BABIPs. 
 
I suspect the defense. 

I would agree.  Escobar's first start out of the PCL has shown some immediate recovery for his down trending season, hopefully the Sea Dogs can do the same for Rodriguez.
 
Also, quite clear that Cherington et al want that Eastern League title this year and aren't afraid to make deadline moves to go for the championship.  Ballsy win now strategy, hope it pays off.

 

[uncannymanny]

 
But what kind of jeans does he wear and how does he look in them?
 

Horrible trade.

The front office should be shitcanned. Just awful. This trade proves they dont have a plan, except maybe that they are planning on selling the team. But you can bet they didnt plan on selling.

The Ben Cherrington sock puppet gets caught flatfooted again!

 
:bravo:

 

[Plympton91]

 
Huh? Miller will probably come close to doubling that. If he wanted 4/16 they would have kept him and resigned him. That would be a freakin steal. 

 
Yup, my opinion of this trade depends on how reasonable a deal Miller signs in the offseason, and whether it is with the Red Sox.  If he gets a blow away offer from someone else, then glad the Red Sox got a lottery ticket.  If he signs a market rate contract in the range of the Downs/Benoit/Affelt 4-years/$20 million deals plus inflation, then I'd rather have Miller.

 

[johnnywayback]

Yup, my opinion of this trade depends on how reasonable a deal Miller signs in the offseason, and whether it is with the Red Sox.  If he gets a blow away offer from someone else, then glad the Red Sox got a lottery ticket.  If he signs a market rate contract in the range of the Downs/Benoit/Affelt 4-years/$20 million deals plus inflation, then I'd rather have Miller.

 
Two things on this:
 
1. You're assuming that who Miller pitches for the remainder of 2014 and who Miller signs with in the off-season are related.  That assumption holds true if either a) he's planning to sign an extension before hitting free agency or b) he holds a grudge against the Red Sox for trading him and won't sign with them even if they make a competitive offer.  Not sure we have evidence to back up either of those.
 
2. Rodriguez isn't a lottery ticket, at least not any more than any minor leaguer is inherently a lottery ticket -- he is, by all accounts, a legitimate prospect with a major league floor.

 

[DJnVa]

 
 If he signs a market rate contract in the range of the Downs/Benoit/Affelt 4-years/$20 million deals plus inflation, then I'd rather have Miller.

 
You could get both you know.

 

[Plympton91]

 
You could get both you know.

 
Yes,that would be the best outcome, but it happens so rarely I'm not going to count it at all. 

 

[Stitch01]

I think it's really unlikely with Lester but possible here.

 

[Granite Sox]

With all this stockpiling of high-minors pitching you have to think something big is gonna happen between now and next April. 

 
 

 
Anthony Ranaudo 
Brian Johnson
Matt Barnes
Edwin Escobar
Henry Owens

 
I'm sure there's a similar post in one of the "when the dust has cleared" discussions, but:

1. DLR
2. Workman
3. Webster
4. Ranaudo
5. Wright
6. Owens
7. Escobar
8. Johnson
9. EdRod

 
Cripes on a cracker... that's an entire STAFF.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

 
 
 
I'm sure there's a similar post in one of the "when the dust has cleared" discussions, but:

1. DLR
2. Workman
3. Webster
4. Ranaudo
5. Wright
6. Owens
7. Escobar
8. Johnson
9. EdRod

 
Cripes on a cracker... that's an entire STAFF.

And you forgot Barnes.

 

[Puffy]

I wonder if we'll get to see Wright in Boston sometime in September. Could be an intriguing depth option for next year.

 

[stp]

He has good body language according to that Baseball Prospectus report, so he's got that going for him anyways. 

 

[JFS7]

keith law,on espn insider:
 
But two months of Miller, who's a free agent after the year, isn't much of a return for one of the top 100 prospects in the game, so Boston made out great here in getting Rodriguez. The 21-year-old left-hander needs more consistency and his slider is not yet an average pitch, but he's consistently up to 94 as a starter, touching 96 in his best starts, with an above-average to plus changeup in the mid- to upper 80s.

 

[soxhop411]

Mlbtr says that DET met our demands for Miller. But we asked for one final offer from BAL which is why we traded him there. I wonder who DET would have given up

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

Dodgers needing bullpen help big time. More and more suitors with money to throw around. He will get paid baaad.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I wonder who DET would have given up

If they had known then what they know now, probably a lot more than they offered. Not getting someone to replace Joba's late inning, which was a clear problem, was a huge blunder.

 

[semsox]

Mlbtr says that DET met our demands for Miller. But we asked for one final offer from BAL which is why we traded him there. I wonder who DET would have given up

 
Whatever the return from DET would have been, given how Rodriguez finished the year, it would not have been as much. 

 

[snowmanny]

Dodgers needing bullpen help big time. More and more suitors with money to throw around. He will get paid baaad.

Last year's FA crop of RPs included Howell (2/11), Lopez (3/13), Logan (3/16.5), Mujica (2/9.5), Rodney (2/14), Smith (3/16).  I would imagine that the bidding for Miller starts at around Joe Smith's deal and then escalates quickly...Smith had a longer track record and better injury history going into FA but Miller is left-handed with better stuff and that ridiculously high K rate....and as you say there are a lot of teams - including high payroll teams - with a clear need.

 

[jscola85]

I would say Miller's floor is something like 3/$18 and he likely ends up with either 3/$21 or 4/$24.  I like him, but that's a lot of coin for a guy whose career-best WAR before this year was 1.5 wins back as a starter in 2008.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I agree that that's a ton to pay for Miller.  Only good reason to do it is if they intend to make him the closer eventually and would rather pay full market value for a top "set-up guy" than shell out more $ on a full market value deal for a "proven closer."  Otherwise, I thought smart teams avoided paying top FA $ for set-up guys and spent time and less coin finding the next Andrew Miller instead.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I agree that that's a ton to pay for Miller.  Only good reason to do it is if they intend to make him the closer eventually and would rather pay full market value for a top "set-up guy" than shell out more $ on a full market value deal for a "proven closer."  Otherwise, I thought smart teams avoided paying top FA $ for set-up guys and spent time and less coin finding the next Andrew Miller instead.

We paid top FA money at the time for Koji to set-up 2/$9.25m without any thoughts of him closing so it isn't outside of what he have done recently. 4 years is a little nuts though.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If they had known then what they know now, probably a lot more than they offered. Not getting someone to replace Joba's late inning, which was a clear problem, was a huge blunder.

 
IIRC, Duquette intimated that he wasn't going to pay the price for Miller but then decided he didn't want to face him in the playoffs so he ponied up.  Smart call on his part.

 

[nvalvo]

 
IIRC, Duquette intimated that he wasn't going to pay the price for Miller but then decided he didn't want to face him in the playoffs so he ponied up.  Smart call on his part.

 
Sounds to me like Ben handled this beautifully.

 

[ALiveH]

if he ends up at $21/3 or $24/4, that's probably a fair price to pay given his age and the success he's had for the past few years.

 

[chrisfont9]

if he ends up at $21/3 or $24/4, that's probably a fair price to pay given his age and the success he's had for the past few years.

$6m x 4 years for a guy in whom there has already been a frenzy of interest sounds fanciful. I bet he gets closer to $10m/per. Maybe 3 years, $30m. I'm not saying that should happen, but there are just too many teams interested in the guy for his price to resemble what he's worth.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Huge, FREE and good article about Andrew Miller on Baseball Prospectus today:
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24833
 
Fun quote:  “Bobby Valentine left few positives behind from his year at the helm of the Sox, but the changes to Miller's mechanics were unarguably productive."
 
Didn't the Dodgers pay Brian Wilson 10 mil to be a set-up man?  I'm guessing Andrew Miller gets 9-10 mil per season after this post-season has amplified the importance of a bullpen ace.  I may have to start rooting for Buck as he's been pretty smart deploying Miller in the playoffs (brought him in in the 5th inning of one game!).  

 

[bellowthecat]

Huge, FREE and good article about Andrew Miller on Baseball Prospectus today:
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24833
 
Fun quote:  “Bobby Valentine left few positives behind from his year at the helm of the Sox, but the changes to Miller's mechanics were unarguably productive."
 
Didn't the Dodgers pay Brian Wilson 10 mil to be a set-up man?  I'm guessing Andrew Miller gets 9-10 mil per season after this post-season has amplified the importance of a bullpen ace.  I may have to start rooting for Buck as he's been pretty smart deploying Miller in the playoffs (brought him in in the 5th inning of one game!).  

 
This was a good article that brought two very interesting points to my attention.  First was that I had forgotten that he used to throw that big loopy curveball (which everyone apparently classifies as a slider) in the high 70s and had scrapped it for the ridiculous slider he now throws around 83-85.  The second is that since moving to pen he has thrown just over 40% sliders, about 43% the last two seasons.
 
I'm not sure I feel comfortable going 3 years and big money (forget 4 years) for a reliever that throws sliders that much.  Everyone probably knows that there's been some research done that shows heavy slider usage is associated with arm injury.  I'd love to have the guy back on a reasonable deal, but if the Orioles ride him hard deep into the playoffs and the asking price keeps going up, I think I pass.  And that's really too bad because he is a lot of fun to watch.  If they were in win-now mode I might say go for it, but they have so many young arms as it is that they don't need an expensive injury risk clogging up payroll and a spot in the pen.