If we get past this, I'm fine with it. He reminds me of contract year Terry, except only the bad parts.Yeah, you don't do it right now. You wait until the roster is back at full strength. It's still something that should be done at some point.
If we get past this, I'm fine with it. He reminds me of contract year Terry, except only the bad parts.Yeah, you don't do it right now. You wait until the roster is back at full strength. It's still something that should be done at some point.
There's also a chance the Celtics are never healthy so him being on the team isn't too problematic. It is the C's, after all.If we get past this, I'm fine with it. He reminds me of contract year Terry, except only the bad parts.
What DS brings is another guy who can break down his cover and create disadvantage. Right now, that's him, Brown, and Tatum who can do that. That's great. Except the latter guys can score on all three levels after they create disadvantage. And Schroeder not only can't do that lately, but he's actually possibly the worst of the three of them in vision. At least JT and JB are looking for guys, even if Tatum is emerging and Brown is still a novice at it.Does he offer anything unique to the team when it's fully healthy? The team might want to bring in another playmaker if they move Schroder. At the same time, there have been some posters asking the team to acquire a playmaker/connector because Schroder isn't. I'm one of them. BenHogan has been asking for Coby White, HRB wants Tyus Jones.
They should let TL do his thing more, regardless of DS. Maybe it's harder for him to do in a 2 big lineup but barking up a tree at this point.
I hope Al is only hurting TL's production on the court and not his development. I'm guessing TL will be better off long term from learning under AL though.
Yeah, I don't want TL with more minutes. I meant they should let him pass the ball some more.What DS brings is another guy who can break down his cover and create disadvantage. Right now, that's him, Brown, and Tatum who can do that. That's great. Except the latter guys can score on all three levels after they create disadvantage. And Schroeder not only can't do that lately, but he's actually possibly the worst of the three of them in vision. At least JT and JB are looking for guys, even if Tatum is emerging and Brown is still a novice at it.
Everyone wants guys who can create advantage with their wiggle, first step, or craftiness. But when that advantage doesn't end up doing anything good because you don't score with it, then who gives a shit really. I think that we've all played with guys who could get where they want on the floor and still not score unless the red sea parts for them. That's him right now. He's doing nothing well. Maybe there's a reason for it, and he'll revert to hitting those open 15 footers and occasionally getting to the rim again. But right now, he looks like mask-Pritchard without a shot. That guy is no help.
TL seems like a guy who needs the learning that comes from an Al than more minutes. I'd like to see him getting 24-28 minutes a game until he shows that he can maintain focus and motor for more than that. Meanwhile, Al isn't going to let down his effort and has forgotten more about basketball than TL knows. I like TL, but I'm still not convinced that he's a plow horse that you can ride yet.
Ah right. I doubt that they're holding him back from passing. More likely that the new offense, such as it is, is taking some time to adjust to (for TL at least). Not rocket science, and he's a decent BBIQ player, but Ime really didn't start even working on an offense until a few weeks ago. Most of the early campaign was focused on turning into "not shit" on defense, which has generally worked.Yeah, I don't want TL with more minutes. I meant they should let him pass the ball some more.
Yes, he creates offense and scores the basketball on a roster that struggles to do both.Does he offer anything unique to the team when it's fully healthy?
At his best, he does this. He's also erratic and wastes a lot of possessions.Yes, he creates offense and scores the basketball on a roster that struggles to do both.
Yes, just less than 12 other guys on the roster.At his best, he does this. He's also erratic and wastes a lot of possessions.
His turnover rate is bad, and his true shooting is bad. When he shoots the ball, it's a bad outcome. And when he doesn't, he turns it over more than almost anyone else getting minutes. And he provides negative value on D.Yes, just less than 12 other guys on the roster.
Agreed. Dennis is a decent player (but not really good/great).Yes, just less than 12 other guys on the roster.
I would just add, on the deal side (#1 or #2), that it isn't clear that he makes the team better. (It isn't clear that he makes the team worse, either, and I'm not arguing that). He does certain very good things that help the team, but he also does things that hurt/limit. Net zero.Agreed. Dennis is a decent player (but not really good/great).
There seem to be 3 camps around here:
1. Deal DS now.
He's blocking young, controlled players (PP/AN/GW/RL) valuable NBA minutes. This team has been .500 for a while now and it's better to develop assets (making them more tradeable this summer) + whatever assets Schroder brings.
Tatum (not peaking yet) + Brown (nagging hammy) aren't taking them to the promised land yet, so focus on future seasons, while enjoying young player development (some people like that). Focusing on future seasons lets the older NBA superstars' (the majority of top 10 players) age out. @Cesar Crespo is leading this charge
2. Deal DS between Jan.1 - Feb. 10, if the Celtics are ~.500.
The majority of the board probably lands here. Gives PBS the most time to canvas the market to extract as much value from DS. Gives IME the chance to somewhat develop the roster and make a run but ~ .500 (out of the Top 4 in EC) means that the ultimate upside is EC Finals. DS fell into their lap, Trust in Brad to extract as much value. Gives the team time to access if PP can somewhat replace DS production, which is possible if Peyton is a high volume 40% 3pt shooter.
I'm in 2. You can't trade anyone now. Not until the roster is fully back, anyway.Agreed. Dennis is a decent player (but not really good/great).
There seem to be 3 camps around here:
1. Deal DS now.
He's blocking young, controlled players (PP/AN/GW/RL) valuable NBA minutes. This team has been .500 for a while now and it's better to develop assets (making them more tradeable this summer) + whatever assets Schroder brings.
Tatum (not peaking yet) + Brown (nagging hammy) aren't taking them to the promised land yet, so focus on future seasons, while enjoying young player development (some people like that). Focusing on future seasons lets the older NBA superstars' (the majority of top 10 players) age out. @Cesar Crespo is leading this charge
2. Deal DS between Jan.1 - Feb. 10, if the Celtics are ~.500.
The majority of the board probably lands here. Gives PBS the most time to canvas the market to extract as much value from DS. Gives IME the chance to somewhat develop the roster and make a run but ~ .500 (out of the Top 4 in EC) means that the ultimate upside is EC Finals. DS fell into their lap, Trust in Brad to extract as much value. Gives the team time to access if PP can somewhat replace DS production, which is possible if Peyton is a high volume 40% 3pt shooter.
3. Don't deal DS.
Win as much as possible this entire season, the kids need to earn their minutes by beating out vets. Injuries will lead to minutes for the youngsters anyways. DS had a few early-season point explosions that probably led to a couple of extra wins. Trading Dennis feels like a white flag on the season and may turn the JAYs/team/new HC off. There is a reason the Celtics got him super cheap, there just isn't that much demand for DS, taking 2nds is useless.
All camps have valid points, but I lean towards #2. This teams present construction isn't making a run, especially with Brown's hammy + JT's lack of efficient 3pt shooting this season. The last few seasons (prior to this summer) were too damaging on the trade/FA/draft front.
Happy Holidays to all.
ok, thanks for clarifying. Maybe there are just 2 camps thenI'm in 2. You can't trade anyone now. Not until the roster is fully back, anyway.
I don’t get this. Schroder has been our second most reliable player all season up until he was sick prior to the least three games. What were all these bad parts? I’m fine with trading him if we can get some future return and want to tank but let’s recognize that it’s a punt on us doing anything significant by losing one of your most valuable weapons.If we get past this, I'm fine with it. He reminds me of contract year Terry, except only the bad parts.
I'd say when healthy Dennis is a clear positive and adds to winningI would just add, on the deal side (#1 or #2), that it isn't clear that he makes the team better. (It isn't clear that he makes the team worse, either, and I'm not arguing that). He does certain very good things that help the team, but he also does things that hurt/limit. Net zero.
The majority of regular NBA players are not far from the “net zero” range aside from those close to All Star range and above. The value of a “net zero” as a rule is that this player would be playing over a negative value player who would be a drop off.I would just add, on the deal side (#1 or #2), that it isn't clear that he makes the team better. (It isn't clear that he makes the team worse, either, and I'm not arguing that). He does certain very good things that help the team, but he also does things that hurt/limit. Net zero.
When he's on, he's better than a net negative. But when he's off, it's a mess. Since he won't be going anywhere for a while, hope he snaps out of this funk.I would just add, on the deal side (#1 or #2), that it isn't clear that he makes the team better. (It isn't clear that he makes the team worse, either, and I'm not arguing that). He does certain very good things that help the team, but he also does things that hurt/limit. Net zero.
None of the numbers support your assertion, the advanced or the box. His efficiency comp on offense is somewhere between garbage year Tatum and current Smart. And let's not even look at defense. His box and advanced there have him as by far the worst rotation player that we have. He's the only top 8 player with negative OBPM and DBPM, the only negative BPM. He's a 112 DRTG (-7).I don’t get this. Schroder has been our second most reliable player all season up until he was sick prior to the least three games. What were all these bad parts? I’m fine with trading him if we can get some future return and want to tank but let’s recognize that it’s a punt on us doing anything significant by losing one of your most valuable weapons.
Me as well. He’s been solid but he’s not part of the future and this is likely a .500 team with or without him. Trade him for the best possible return, whether that be a buried young guy or some lotto-protected 1st in 2026. He could absolutely help a contender in the 2nd half of the season.Camp 1
I believe he played an important role in helping Ime establish his system. DS represented toughness and a veteran voice/piece, but thats much less critical now.
To my eyes this team isn’t going far with or without him, so frankly I’ll go against the grain here a bit and look to trade him now. it’s possible a team with a future (Lakers for example) this season, that’s even more concerned with maintaining a competitive roster, might be willing to pay something of a premium.
I’m not arguing what his advanced numbers are but those don’t tell the entire story especially over a third of the season. Advanced numbers alone show DeRozan, a borderline HOFer, to be a below average NBA player.None of the numbers support your assertion, the advanced or the box. His efficiency comp on offense is somewhere between garbage year Tatum and current Smart. And let's not even look at defense. His box and advanced there have him as by far the worst rotation player that we have. He's the only top 8 player with negative OBPM and DBPM, the only negative BPM. He's a 112 DRTG (-7).
These are season numbers, not just bad streak numbers.
Pritchard was 4 for 8 from three on the night, is 36% from three on the year, and 40% for his career (320 attempts). And that's on all of his threes, not just wide open corner threes. (He's at 49% for his career from the corner).Here's another one that, in a vacuum, looks like a decent shot. Tatum has a clean look here. However, so does Payton Pritchard, and Marcus Smart [by setting a screen on Pritchard's man] is making sure of it.
Smart recognizes Pritchard's man is wayyyyy too deep in the lane. Pritchard was shooting pretty well all night. This, for Tatum, should have been one dribble between the defenders and a pass to Pritchard for a very, very wide open 3-pointer.
There's no player in league history better to have with the ball in his hands in a must score situation than Michael Jordan. Tatum and Brown aren't Jordan or even plae imitations of Jordan as good as they are. If anyone gets to play hero ball with the championship on the line, it is him:I can hear some people saying that they'd rather have Tatum taking that shot than Pritchard, but I'll remind those of you ready to type that into the comments that two of the biggest shots in this game came from WesleyMatthews. On a team with Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo, they gladly kicked it out to Matthews twice down the stretch, including the shot to take the lead with :30 to go.
The simplest way to look at this finish is to say your best players should have made shots, and this is true. However, when a team is playing with a lead and holding off a hard-charging opponent, they need to make that opponent work hard with good ball movement and give up good looks to get great ones. The best teams don't always just tell their stars to get buckets, they ask them to make plays.
Tatum and Brown could have made few buckets and changed the tone of this Christmas night. That's for sure. But a little more trust in their teammates to make the right plays themselves could have resulted in even better looks and a very merry Christmas ride to Minnesota.
Great post, thanks. Ime says in there that "I thought we got excellent shots", which was true, and they missed a number of good looks down the stretch. But I think Karalis' point is still a good one, the potential was there for even better ones.Karalis has a column with several examples of Tatum and Brown playing heroball and refusing to give it up to wide open teammates or even to each other.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/12/25/video-breakdown-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-need-to-trust-teammates-more-down-the-stretch
Miwaukee defended those last sequences by loading up on Tatum and Brown. And, while they got some decent looks, they passed up better ones.Pritchard was 4 for 8 from three on the night, is 36% from three on the year, and 40% for his career (320 attempts). And that's on all of his threes, not just wide open corner threes. (He's at 49% for his career from the corner).
The Celtics aren't winning as long as only 2 guys are allowed to shoot during crunch time. They are a team that struggles to finish in close games, plays markedly worse in these situations than they do the rest of the time, and the reason is because teams know thgat one of them is going to go 1 on 5 on nearly every play.
There is always the objection that gets raised when stars are criticized for heroball that, for example, Milwaukee is leaving the Marcus Smart and Romeo Langford and Paytom Pritchard type players open for a reason. But...
There's no player in league history better to have with the ball in his hands in a must score situation than Michael Jordan. Tatum and Brown aren't Jordan or even plae imitations of Jordan as good as they are. If anyone gets to play hero ball with the championship on the line, it is him:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nLzQN25bSE
Yes. There's also one play in the sequence where Tatum 1) does not pass to a wide open Langford and 2) coughs the ball up when the defense collapses on him. That's not a bad shot, it is no shot. I doubt the issue here was Tatum seeing Langford open and thinking "no fucking way, better if I turn the ball over than give it to him," I just think Tatum played it one dimensionally - he was going to take the shot no matter what happened, except that he didn't.Great post, thanks. Ime says in there that "I thought we got excellent shots", which was true, and they missed a number of good looks down the stretch. But I think Karalis' point is still a good one, the potential was there for even better ones.
Thanks for that. I didn't realize PP had so many career attempts already.Karalis has a column with several examples of Tatum and Brown playing heroball and refusing to give it up to wide open teammates or even to each other.
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2021/12/25/video-breakdown-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-need-to-trust-teammates-more-down-the-stretch
Miwaukee defended those last sequences by loading up on Tatum and Brown. And, while they got some decent looks, they passed up better ones.Pritchard was 4 for 8 from three on the night, is 36% from three on the year, and 40% for his career (320 attempts). And that's on all of his threes, not just wide open corner threes. (He's at 49% for his career from the corner).
The Celtics aren't winning as long as only 2 guys are allowed to shoot during crunch time. They are a team that struggles to finish in close games, plays markedly worse in these situations than they do the rest of the time, and the reason is because teams know thgat one of them is going to go 1 on 5 on nearly every play.
There is always the objection that gets raised when stars are criticized for heroball that, for example, Milwaukee is leaving the Marcus Smart and Romeo Langford and Paytom Pritchard type players open for a reason. But...
There's no player in league history better to have with the ball in his hands in a must score situation than Michael Jordan. Tatum and Brown aren't Jordan or even plae imitations of Jordan as good as they are. If anyone gets to play hero ball with the championship on the line, it is him:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nLzQN25bSE
Michael Jordan himself wasn't making that pass at 23.There's no player in league history better to have with the ball in his hands in a must score situation than Michael Jordan. Tatum and Brown aren't Jordan or even plae imitations of Jordan as good as they are. If anyone gets to play hero ball with the championship on the line, it is him:
If you're talking about the play with 30 seconds left and Cs up 2, the bigger question to me - as I mentioned in the game thread - is why JT is going to a spin move with George Hill switched onto him? As discussed in that thread (with pictures!), I'm sure the game plan was that if JT is matched up against Hill, he's got to score. And he does. But I just don't understand why he would go to a spin move, particularly when he hit a 3P over Holiday a couple of minutes earlier from the same spot where he got the ball. Another thing to learn I guess.Yes. There's also one play in the sequence where Tatum 1) does not pass to a wide open Langford and 2) coughs the ball up when the defense collapses on him. That's not a bad shot, it is no shot. I doubt the issue here was Tatum seeing Langford open and thinking "no fucking way, better if I turn the ball over than give it to him," I just think Tatum played it one dimensionally - he was going to take the shot no matter what happened, except that he didn't.
Not making excuses for Tatum, his mistakes down the stretch were right out in the open.Smart had 20 potential assists last night, 7 actual. Tatum had 13 potential assists, 4 actual. And Jaylen had 8 potential assists, with 3 actual. The ball moved well, just didn’t make enough shots, with Tatum being the biggest offender.
It’s a make or miss league, and Tatum hasn’t made nearly enough shots down the stretch of games. He’s been a 60% TS guy in the clutch the last two seasons, this year he’s under 50% so far. I’d expect it to turn around, as he has a long track record of being awesome in crunch time. But until that happens, we won’t win many close games against good teams.
I don’t want to make excuses for him either, because it’s not all on fatigue. But yet again, Ime played Tatum the last 15 minutes of the game.That has probably happened in at least 6 or 7 games this season, any player is going to be gassed in that scenario.Not making excuses for Tatum, his mistakes down the stretch were right out in the open.
But I thought the worst play was Smart passing up what would have been a wide open 15 footer and dishing it to the corner where Tatum (I think) threw up a three pointer that was fairly well guarded. Celts were up two at the time, somewhere in the final 3 minutes; 2 score game at that point is a big difference. And I don't think Tatum because the shot clock was running down had a choice whether to shoot it or not.
The other big play was Brown missed an open 8 footer. Make either of those, the final sequences down the court play out differently. That and not taking care of business on the defensive boards.
I don't think end of game struggles fit into the category of "isolated plays." Its a trend. However good/bad they are in general, they are worse down the stretch in close games. Part of that is because teams have a very good idea of what the Celtics will and won't do, and 95% of their late game plan is having one guy try to score, geven to the point of going 1 on 5 if the other team collapses on him.The problem with picking out isolated plays is you are looking at the symptoms rather than the disease. The Celtics are a below .500 team at present. One better decision yesterday might make their record look more pleasing but it changes nothing big picture.
My takeaway from this piece…….Michael Jordan himself wasn't making that pass at 23.
Yes, God for bid there is any ball movement at all in a late game situation, because we might get a shot we dont want and it is better to sometimes not get a shot at all than lose control of who puts the shot up.* You don’t want ball movement in these late game clock management situations aside from the shot coming off a Tatum//Brown pass as you then lose control as to who shots and when they shoot in accordance with the game/shot clock.
A big problem is, I think the NBA's got the book on Tatum. They know that with a minute or two remaining in a close game, he probably isn't passing that ball. That may be why Milwaukee collapsed three players on him. They knew he was going to try to get that shot off, even if it didn't sense. It's frustrating to watch.If you pass to wide open questionable shooter Langford and the aggressive close outs cause him to turn the ball over, that is no worse than what actually did happen on that play.
This is a super interesting play (at least to me) that deserves a closer look. There are a couple of things worth pointing out.But I thought the worst play was Smart passing up what would have been a wide open 15 footer and dishing it to the corner where Tatum (I think) threw up a three pointer that was fairly well guarded. Celts were up two at the time, somewhere in the final 3 minutes; 2 score game at that point is a big difference. And I don't think Tatum because the shot clock was running down had a choice whether to shoot it or not.
Part of their problem of getting to the rim was that Milwaukee was so much bigger up front, with a rotation of Portis, GA and Cousins, and the C's only having RW available to counter. Milwaukee's defensive MO has always been to drop coverage and give up 3's, which is what the C's tried to take advantage of. Shot's stopped dropping late, and the ball stopped moving. Same old.I thought the reason the Celtics loss was less on the hero ball and more on their inability to get to the basket consistently. Their offense was essentially drive and dish to an open three point shot or lob it to TL, who was understandably tired at the end of the game. They had no off-ball movement or passing that led to layups and easy close shots. I actually felt like they missed Schroeder, who is the only player on the team who can seemingly break down the defense and get a reliable shot in the paint against anybody. Tatum can do that against some teams but not others. He was clearly afraid of Giannis at the rim and he has no floater. JB still doesn't quite have the handle to do it consistently either and ends up settling for top of key jump shots that he only seems to make reliably in the first half.
The Celtics can either solve this problem by Tatum/Brown developing into players who can reliably get to the basket/draw the foul or they need to get a long-term PG who can do it while Tatum/Brown improve their off ball movement. Playing for the three with league average three point shooting isn't going to cut it in crunch time. This has been a problem since Hayward got hurt in the bubble and has continued in his absence.
You actually have this backwards. The risk of not getting off a shot and/or turning the ball over in these late game possessions comes from ball movement and not from iso which all but assures a FGA as well as proper clock management.Yes, God for bid there is any ball movement at all in a late game situation, because we might get a shot we dont want and it is better to sometimes not get a shot at all than lose control of who puts the shot up.
I was referring to these possessions resulting in iso for Tatum or Brown bc whoever our guards are on the floor aren’t capable of breaking down their man with the dribble. I wasn’t saying his absence cost us the game although that is also possible.And, no, Schroder wouldn;t have made the difference. It's not as if Schroder on the floor has meant that the Celtics have been good in late game situations - they have been consistently not good all seaosn ling, with or without him.
That was had to go back 30 years speaks volumes. Jordan was much more developed at that time than Tatum or Brown today which I alluded to aboce regarding young players (Jordan wasn’t young at that time but he never makes that pass 5 years earlier in his career)Were you watching that game in 1991? Were you cursing MJ out for passing that ball in a "last shot" situation?
ISO Tatum/Brown is fine in crunch time or the end of quarters, BUT you can't run it 95% of the time, you become way too predictable. Pretty much the rest of the League has said so and loads up for it.You actually have this backwards. The risk of not getting off a shot and/or turning the ball over in these late game possessions comes from ball movement and not from iso which all but assures a FGA as well as proper clock management.
I was referring to these possessions resulting in iso for Tatum or Brown bc whoever our guards are on the floor aren’t capable of breaking down their man with the dribble. I wasn’t saying his absence cost us the game although that is also possible.
That was had to go back 30 years speaks volumes. Jordan was much more developed at that time than Tatum or Brown today which I alluded to aboce regarding young players (Jordan wasn’t young at that time but he never makes that pass 5 years earlier in his career)
I agree that you can’t run this every time down the stretch which is the value of Schroder giving us other options. When the other three on the floor are Smart, Grant, and Romeo (really insert anyone else) that is going to be the set. Naysayers will point toward the ridiculously small sample when the three of them are on the floor which is an awful way to view that lineup. Then they complain about being stagnant whenever he’s not out there in these spots. [scratches head]ISO Tatum/Brown is fine in crunch time or the end of quarters, BUT you can't run it 95% of the time, you become way too predictable. Pretty much the rest of the League has said so and loads up for it.
Time to expand the playbook, the JAYs aren't the only two that are capable of shooting a basketball. For example, corner3s from PP/Grant are a highly efficient shot that spreads the floor, opens up driving lanes in the paint and above the break 3s.
I imagine the probability of an extra pass or two creating a turnover is about the same as ISO JAYs loose handles turning it over vs double teams
@wade boggs chicken dinner did an excellent job of showing how the team is "watching" ISO instead of moving /cutting/reacting, when they aren't involved. Lets call it Trickle down ISO effects
eI think "let's stick with what is obviously not working because a different approach like 'passing to an open man' will probably be worse" is not the right approach. In a final seconds situation, OK, but over a final 3-4 minutes? Misguided. It not the end of the world to sometimes trust Payton Pritchard to stick a wide open corner three in a key late game situation, even if you don't want to do it for a final shot. (Although PP did hit a gamewinner last year I think).