Very little mainboard discussion after going 3-1 on the opening series.
Valazquez pitched great and nothing here
Valazquez pitched great and nothing here
I think something to keep an eye on is baserunning outs. The Sox were horrendous last year, something like 20 more outs than the next closest team. Off the top of my head I think there were five during this series. I'm not sure if this is attributable to Cora, but I believe it bears watching.So, with one series down, we have two marginally questionable moves by Cora so far:
- Bringing in Smith instead of Kimbrel at the bottom of the 8th. That move, however, is countered by the fact that Kimbrel had a very limited spring training, and the team cannot use Kimbrel in every single high-leverage situation that comes up over the course of the 162 game season anyway.
- Not pinch hitting for Leon. A move that is explainable by the fact that Cora may still be trying to figure out exactly what he has with his bench players, and so wants to give guys like Leon every opportunity at this point in the season to hit when the situation arises.
Any other criticism is simply nitpicking for the sake of nitpicking.
I wonder if, as a former bench player himself, Cora's view is that Holt (or any other utility-type player) is more likely to succeed if he does play two or three days in a row, instead of once every 5 or 6 days. Hopefully, as you say, not every week -- and hopfeullly, with an OPS closer to 700 than 500, but when the time comes to rest infielders, figure a way to do it so that the replacement gets a shot of "regular" playing time.A positive is that Cora may be more flexible in not running his position players into the ground. I have no issues with him resting regulars as long as he doesn't play Holt 3 times a week.
IIRC the baserunning issues were something that was specifically mentioned as a problem when JF was fired, and something Cora is expected to fix. If they continue that's a knock against Cora.I think something to keep an eye on is baserunning outs. The Sox were horrendous last year, something like 20 more outs than the next closest team. Off the top of my head I think there were five during this series. I'm not sure if this is attributable to Cora, but I believe it bears watching.
[Broken record alert]...to the extent they are bad "sends," then yes, its fair to lay the blame at the feet of the coaching staff.. But its basically the same players. So in the non-send situations what if the baseline talent level is "shitty baserunners." Call it instinct or skill or judgment, or whatever, a lot of Sox lack a lot of it.IIRC the baserunning issues were something that was specifically mentioned as a problem when JF was fired, and something Cora is expected to fix. If they continue that's a knock against Cora.
The Twins game was a completely different situation. They were losing in their last at-bat and if they didn't score 2, then their defense would be irrelevant. The Red Sox were winning 3-1 and didn't need to score again to win. It wasn't their last at-bat. If they pinch hit for the catcher then they definitely would need to put in either Vazquez, who was getting the day off, or Swihart, who hasn't caught yet and who isn't as good defensively as Leon.Opening Day down 2-0 based loaded in the 9th for the Twins and Molitor pinch hit Grossman for Buxton. Grossman delivered a single. Of course, talk radio was questioning the move the next day, even though it worked, because folks are now worried that maybe the team isn't confident that Buxton is about to breakout as a superstar this year.
The point? Leon is a backup C who is supposed to be pinch hit for in that situation. He knows it. The crowd knows it. The rookie manager should know it and do it. There's no good excuse for not doing it.
Should be be fired? No. But if I'm DD I'd find a way to ask what he was thinking in that spot.
Last year, the Sox were "credited" with making 81 outs on the bases (11 more than the 2nd place Yankees in the AL) and 31 times caught stealing (112 total). The Texas Rangers made 67 baserunning outs, but were also caught stealing 44 times, for 111 total outs on the bases. Not exactly sure where the "20 more outs" came from, but I've heard the same number thrown around previously, so I could be missing something. But I agree the baserunning outs bear watching.I think something to keep an eye on is baserunning outs. The Sox were horrendous last year, something like 20 more outs than the next closest team. Off the top of my head I think there were five during this series. I'm not sure if this is attributable to Cora, but I believe it bears watching.
What does this have to do with "stones"? It isn't a test of wills, or shouldn't be. It's a matter of balancing good tactical management with good personnel management.He brought Barnes into the eighth to pitch in the highest-leverage situation at the end of the game - let's hope Cora has the stones to bring in Kimbrel the next time this situation comes up.
The operative narrative is that Kimbrel will assault any manager who dares try it; thus "stones" are necessary.What does this have to do with "stones"? It isn't a test of wills, or shouldn't be. It's a matter of balancing good tactical management with good personnel management.
My 1974 neighborhood Strat-0-Matic championship scoffs at your analysis.The best part of these threads is where posters assume they have access to the same personnel information or even advanced metrics as the manager. Who knew that having a smartphone or wifi access in your parents basement allows you to know if a guy who seems to be the right PHer or reliever is under the weather or not or has some other reason that might render them unavailable.
Hitting Belanger cleanup was genius. GENIUSMy 1974 neighborhood Strat-0-Matic championship scoffs at your analysis.
Thanks for posting that chart. Interesting stuff. Sox led the league in getting thrown out at 3rd and getting thrown out at home, which are usually the ones that are most memorable due to the proximity to scoring a run. So I guess that's why it seemed like they were getting thrown out a lot. But the chart does show they had a lot of success in other ways with their aggressive baserunning.Last years base running chart fro all teams:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-baserunning-batting.shtml
Boston was 1st going 1st to third.
Looks like we were 6th in Stolen Bases
Interesting the CS numbers. Texas, LAA, Houston & Mil (all good base stealing teams also had the most CS) League avg was 31 and Boston had 31.
The Outs at home were tops with next in line: Phillies 26, MIL 25, Tex 22, Seattle 21, Houston 20
Aggressive teams. I found an article on our new base running coach, Tom Goodwin,
and his philosophy is to be aggressive. I will try and find and post.
I agree. Some decisions will always have hidden information informing them. Reliever use seems particularly subject to this.The best part of these threads is where posters assume they have access to the same personnel information or even advanced metrics as the manager. Who knew that having a smartphone or wifi access in your parents basement allows you to know if a guy who seems to be the right PHer or reliever is under the weather or not or has some other reason that might render them unavailable? Or if the team's analytics department has data that conflicts with publicly available information?
We will reach baseball nirvana when the club decides to crowdsource management to SoSH. But not other boards of course - because what do they know?
So you're saying that managers should make decisions based on things that are about to happen, because if he can't see the future then what good is he?Well, what actually happened?
No. I was kind of expecting you to post Poyners actual numbers to justify the decision. But whatever, it's a minor thing.So you're saying that managers should make decisions based on things that are about to happen, because if he can't see the future then what good is he?
That's some really strong conviction for the first series of the season. And that's the problem with a lot of posts right now. In 2016, Leon had an OPS of .764 against RHPs. Swihart managed a .539 OPS in AAA last year. Devers has a large reverse split (.737 against RHP in his brief MLB career). There is certainly a world in which having Leon bat there is a good OFFENSIVE move - regardless of score (winning! - in March!) and personnel situation (rest days, slumps, streaks, illnesses, injuries, BvP matchups, first series of the season, etc., etc., etc... ). That certainly qualifies as a good excuse for not sending up a PH, in my opinion.The point? Leon is a backup C who is supposed to be pinch hit for in that situation. He knows it. The crowd knows it. The rookie manager should know it and do it. There's no good excuse for not doing it.
Should be be fired? No. But if I'm DD I'd find a way to ask what he was thinking in that spot.
Ah, OK. Thought those numbers were already in the thread somewhere. Here are some of Poyner's career minor league platoon splits:No. I was kind of expecting you to post Poyners actual numbers to justify the decision. But whatever, it's a minor thing.
I think Phiilie fans would rather have Weaver in the dugout tomorrow.Gabe Kapler is making Alex Cora look like Earl Weaver.
Of course we don't have the info. We never had any info when Farrell managed either, so in retrospect we all probably owe him an apology.The best part of these threads is where posters assume they have access to the same personnel information or even advanced metrics as the manager. Who knew that having a smartphone or wifi access in your parents basement allows you to know if a guy who seems to be the right PHer or reliever is under the weather or not or has some other reason that might render them unavailable? Or if the team's analytics department has data that conflicts with publicly available information?
We will reach baseball nirvana when the club decides to crowdsource management to SoSH. But not other boards of course - because what do they know?
Tangential argument, but what metric(s) should we be using on 3/31/18 to make that decision? Career OPS? 2017 OPS v RH? MLB or AAA? 2018 spring training OBP? 2018 late and close vs Sergio Romo? I wouldn't argue Leon is a better hitter than any of those guys, but at a given point in time he has shown he could be the best option (certainly the 1st half of 2016). What information do we have on the third day of the season that conclusively tells the manager or us what he should do? I don't have any problem with the manager letting his guys prove (or not) themselves in some of these types of situations until he has a better grasp of who he wants to put in them.Of course we don't have the info. We never had any info when Farrell managed either, so in retrospect we all probably owe him an apology.
I very much doubt there is an existing metric that has Leon as a better option than all three of Swihart, Devers and Ramirez. I'm sure that as always he had his reasons that we aren't privy too, but that particular aspect is a stretch.
Weekend at Earl's.I think Phiilie fans would rather have Weaver in the dugout tomorrow.
I would work my way backwards from his career wRC+ of 68 vs right handed pitchers and that he is especially shitty vs sliders. Not just last year. And if we really want to get SSS happy, look at Hanley and Devers at #2 and #3. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=7&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d.Tangential argument, but what metric(s) should we be using on 3/31/18 to make that decision? Career OPS? 2017 OPS v RH? MLB or AAA? 2018 spring training OBP? 2018 late and close vs Sergio Romo? I wouldn't argue Leon is a better hitter than any of those guys, but at a given point in time he has shown he could be the best option (certainly the 1st half of 2016). What information do we have on the third day of the season that conclusively tells the manager or us what he should do? I don't have any problem with the manager letting his guys prove (or not) themselves in some of these types of situations until he has a better grasp of who he wants to put in them.
Best guess: Johnson's a FB pitcher, so Cora wants his best outfield out there.JDM is not in tonight's lineup in an NL park. This after he played the last 2 games in the outfield in an AL park, on turf. Unless there's something amiss physically with JDM, I find this puzzling.
This is tough to start the season. Get everyone some action to open and go from there.JDM is not in tonight's lineup in an NL park. This after he played the last 2 games in the outfield in an AL park, on turf. Unless there's something amiss physically with JDM, I find this puzzling.
Why? Yesterday Cora said he asked Nunez what game he wanted off and asked Martinez what game he wanted off.JDM is not in tonight's lineup in an NL park. This after he played the last 2 games in the outfield in an AL park, on turf. Unless there's something amiss physically with JDM, I find this puzzling.
So very true. I was in the LF stands for batting practice on Fri and Sat and I couldn't believe how hard it is to track balls against the dome roof with those lights.This is tough to start the season. Get everyone some action to open and go from there.
Playing the field might be puzzling, but the lighting at The Trop is shit and given the number of games there it’s an adjustment, even factoring in his past visit as a Tiger.
The Sox also max out on turf for visiting teams thanks to the Jays. That probably is a factor in too.
Hell , Its an adjustment watching games there as a fan. Most spring training stadiums have better lighting.
I can still hear the cowbell from the ninth inning yesterday. I blame Kelly.
Ah, there you go. I was unaware that it was JD's call. I figured that being from Miami he'd probably want to play in the 2 games there.Why? Yesterday Cora said he asked Nunez what game he wanted off and asked Martinez what game he wanted off.
*This* is often the type of information missing from the ass couch analysis.Why? Yesterday Cora said he asked Nunez what game he wanted off and asked Martinez what game he wanted off.
Agreed, Sox haven’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball.JDM is not in tonight's lineup in an NL park. This after he played the last 2 games in the outfield in an AL park, on turf. Unless there's something amiss physically with JDM, I find this puzzling.
Well, his most obvious replacement (Ramirez), since there was no DH, was the star of the game IMO. I guess Benintendi could have sat, but he did get off the schnide and scored a run. He’s also much better defensively.JDM is not in tonight's lineup in an NL park. This after he played the last 2 games in the outfield in an AL park, on turf. Unless there's something amiss physically with JDM, I find this puzzling.
He's only played more than 123 games once (120 and 119 the last 2 seasons). If "babying" him gets him to 140 or 145, then the answer is "yes."Well, his most obvious replacement (Ramirez), since there was no DH, was the star of the game IMO. I guess Benintendi could have sat, but he did get off the schnide and scored a run. He’s also much better defensively.
I dont know but factors like turf and the crap stadium that is the Trop, should count for something, but do we really need to baby JDM like this more so than other players on the team.
Projections are pretty much the best starting point for these sorts of decisions, especially this early in the season. Neither Leon nor Devers has been in the majors for long enough for their L/R splits to contain any meaningful information, and I am certainly hopeful that Cora is intelligent enough not to be looking at spring training numbers or ridiculous small sample splits.Tangential argument, but what metric(s) should we be using on 3/31/18 to make that decision? Career OPS? 2017 OPS v RH? MLB or AAA? 2018 spring training OBP? 2018 late and close vs Sergio Romo? I wouldn't argue Leon is a better hitter than any of those guys, but at a given point in time he has shown he could be the best option (certainly the 1st half of 2016). What information do we have on the third day of the season that conclusively tells the manager or us what he should do? I don't have any problem with the manager letting his guys prove (or not) themselves in some of these types of situations until he has a better grasp of who he wants to put in them.
Point taken.He's only played more than 123 games once (120 and 119 the last 2 seasons). If "babying" him gets him to 140 or 145, then the answer is "yes."
+100.Yeah, I don't have a problem with rotation of players early in the season. Most managers want to get their guys some sort of rest early as they ramp up to seasonal scheduling.
Small correction: They play on 4/8 (Sunday), but not on 4/9 (Monday)4/4 off
4/6 off
4/8 off
(then 13 in a row)
I don't disagree with the greater point. And it's good to get the subs extra playing time early on - preferably that would happen in blowout games.
And now, Mookie. X is the only one not to get a day.Hanley, Devers, Nunez, and Bradley have each had a game off, too.
IIRC, this was something that Francona liked to do, occasionally to the consternation of media and posters here, because occasionally it meant a particular player not only didn't start a game that media/fans thought he should but also was considered unavailable for the game barring emergency. (not to mention his famous Sunday getaway lineups)Imagine how great it must be to know ahead of time, as a player, that you'll have (say) next Monday off. You can plan your routine around it. You can work for a manager who doesn't think every decision is do-or-die over 6 months. You can work for a manager who apparently, in Houston, learned the benefits of not playing everyone to death before the dog days come.
Thing is, you're going to lose some games with your best starters out there and you're going to win some games with some of your best sitting. It's not something to over-react to. Sounds pretty damn smart to me.