Agents of KAOS: Rafaela, Duran, and O'Neill

jmcc5400

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2000
5,315
It’s a likeable team. Casas has this quirky Bill Walton personality. Rafaela might be the most exciting base runner since Ellsbury. Bello is developing into an ace. I think fans and media will really embrace this group because of the personalities, even if they just end up a 79 win team. Fans connect with homegrown players more it seems.
Rafaela isn’t even the most exciting base runner on this team. I’m excited about him, but Duran is a total agent of chaos, as we saw in the top in the 9th when he both earned and cost Casas his at bat.
 

Norm Siebern

Member
SoSH Member
May 12, 2003
7,131
Western MD
Rafaela isn’t even the most exciting base runner on this team. I’m excited about him, but Duran is a total agent of chaos, as we saw in the top in the 9th when he both earned and cost Casas his at bat.
I was hoping Duran was going to steal home in the top of the ninth with Casas at the plate. Duran was ⅔ of the way down the line before the pitch was even thrown.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,838
Maine
Agent of chaos is certainly a good term for Duran. I just wish he had better baseball instincts. He's a great athlete without a doubt. He can perform the skills needed to play the game. He's not much of a ball player though.

He absolutely should have stolen home. I don't think he was even thinking about it though, despite how far down the line he got. He was too focused on distracting the pitcher and wound up distracting his teammate instead. Fortunately the run he represented wasn't crucial.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
23,641
The gran facenda
Broke this out of last night's game thread. These guys should be a bit disruptive on the bases and thought it would be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to talk about them.
 

Bergs

funky and cold
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
21,680
Max: "This team is going to win 162 games."

Chief: "No they won't"

Max: "Would you believe 90 games?"
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Analytics love the Mariners, lots of people picking them to be in the ALCS etc., but the contrast could not be more stark. One team on the field last night looked like a 1970s softball-style team, and the other one looked like a team that reflects where this game is actually going. Don't get me wrong, the Mariners have some good athletes and will have a fine season, but in every sport the incoming talent and athleticism is reaching incredible new levels, and baseball is no exception. The Sox' roster looks more like the future of baseball.
 

The_Dali

New Member
Jul 2, 2021
141
I’m glad I’m not the only one who thought Duran should have tried to score. He was so far down the line. In fact, given the disengagement rules, I’m really surprised there hasn’t been more attempts to steal home.
 

Rice4HOF

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 21, 2002
1,900
Calgary, Canada
The problem with Duran potentially stealing home, is that you can't do it with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter. The batter has no choice but to take a pitch, and if it's a strike, the inning is over and run doesn't count. If he was going to do it, he should have done it on a previous pitch.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,213
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Broke this out of last night's game thread. These guys should be a bit disruptive on the bases and thought it would be a good idea to have a thread dedicated to talk about them.
Ha. I was just going to start a Duran thread.

But I like this one better. Story and Wong can also impact the game with speed.


What was going on with Duran in the top of the 9th? The TV broadcast was having kittens about the fact that he was halfway down the line and dancing, which is a distraction for a lefty hitter. It seemed like a few players discussed it after the inning. Especially annoying was that Duran did it during one pitch and no one in the dugout apparently yelled at him to knock it off, so he did it again the next pitch and Casas Kd.
MLB.TV is a godsend for these late night games - I was asleep when this all happened. Reviewing it today though, it's important to note a few things in relation to speed impacting the game in that inning.

1) Duran's speed might have prevented a double play when he was at bat. Fielder's choice resulted.

2) Voth starts pitching out of the stretch and throws over to first during the subsequent Devers' AB. Devers flies out.

3) Story comes up. Duran steals second on a 2-2 count. On 3-2 Duran breaks toward third on a Story IF hit to the third baseman, who hesitates as Duran comes to a stop before him. That hesitation allows Story to have a photo-finish IF single on the throw.

4) Casas comes up. Voth is still pitching out of the stretch and throws over to first. On 2-1 Story steals 2B - the catcher drops the ball but not far, so Duran won't be coming home. That, BTW, is, IMO, excellent baseball by Story. If he's confident he can steal and draw a throw, maybe Duran zips home if its mishandled.

On the next pitch we first hear about Duran being way down the line. The TV shots look like he's just placing himself relative to where the 3B is (quasi-shift). Which moves him down the line pretty far way, given that the 3B is closer to 2B.

Youk complains about how that would make him feel as a hitter, but I think this also puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher. Duran goes back to the bag after a pitch and the announcers speculate the dugout said to get down the line but not be too distracting. Which he does, with a couple bounces as the pitch is delivered.

So with two strikes, I really don't know how much of that is on Casas to just ignore him and swing regardless, and how much is on Duran for taking a reasonable lead in the circumstances (which was a huge lead.)


Overall though, I'd never rely on a DOB description of anything. Including "dancing."
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,650
Rogers Park
Story and Wong can also impact the game with speed.
Just clicking around in Savant...

Story is a tic faster than either Rafaela and O'Neill if Statcast is to be believed, and Wong is just two tics below O'Neill. (Tics are a unit of footspeed I just made up that is equivalent to a tenth of a foot/second.) Valdez and Wilyer are a shade below average, and Grissom is basically exactly league average.

Last year, we ranked 26th in foot speed as a roster. We should be much faster this year, but I imagine the whole league is moving in that direction, so it will be interesting to see where we land.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2006
7,946
SS Botany Bay
The problem with Duran potentially stealing home, is that you can't do it with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter. The batter has no choice but to take a pitch, and if it's a strike, the inning is over and run doesn't count. If he was going to do it, he should have done it on a previous pitch.
I have a recollection that Julio Lugo tried to do that. But it might be the Mandela Effect, or an artifact of habitually blaming Lugo.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,213
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Just clicking around in Savant...

Story is a tic faster than either Rafaela and O'Neill if Statcast is to be believed, and Wong is just two tics below O'Neill. (Tics are a unit of footspeed I just made up that is equivalent to a tenth of a foot/second.) Valdez and Wilyer are a shade below average, and Grissom is basically exactly league average.

Last year, we ranked 26th in foot speed as a roster. We should be much faster this year, but I imagine the whole league is moving in that direction, so it will be interesting to see where we land.
Story's always had speed that practically translated into SBs - he was a threat to be in the 20-25 SB range every year in Colorado. He didn't amass those totals in each of his Boston injury seasons, but he kept up the same SB rate (or close enough to it.) Now, with the large bases, the pitch clock and the limited throw-overs. . .maybe he keeps that same practical speed into his early 30s?
 

Whoop-La White

used to be zougwa
SoSH Member
Is there a coach on the team devoted to baserunning? I thought this was one of Febles' roles, but he's no longer with the team. If speed is going to be more of a weapon going forward, it'd be interesting to know if there's a mindset being imparted as there seems to be with pitching.
 

canyoubelieveit

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 8, 2006
7,871
The problem with Duran potentially stealing home, is that you can't do it with 2 outs and 2 strikes on the batter. The batter has no choice but to take a pitch, and if it's a strike, the inning is over and run doesn't count. If he was going to do it, he should have done it on a previous pitch.
The wonderful thing about baseball is that what you've said is obviously true, and was clear to me about 10 seconds after the play had ended...but I've been following baseball religiously for 40 years and had never seen or thought about this situation before, even though it's a play that could theoretically happen almost every game (i.e., man at third with two outs, two strikes on a hitter).
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,476
Not here
The wonderful thing about baseball is that what you've said is obviously true, and was clear to me about 10 seconds after the play had ended...but I've been following baseball religiously for 40 years and had never seen or thought about this situation before, even though it's a play that could theoretically happen almost every game (i.e., man at third with two outs, two strikes on a hitter).
We once saw a ball hit the outfield wall and take a left for the first time since the invention of balls. Then we saw it again about a week later. With overwhelming evidence like that, I'm confident that one of these fuckers is going to steal home on this road trip.

Probably against the As.
 

Cassvt2023

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 17, 2023
516
We once saw a ball hit the outfield wall and take a left for the first time since the invention of balls. Then we saw it again about a week later. With overwhelming evidence like that, I'm confident that one of these fuckers is going to steal home on this road trip.

Probably against the As.
I remember being at a game around 1990 when I was @ Northeastern. Night game, Clemens against Dave Stewart when the A’s were dominant. The lights malfunctioned in the middle innings, so there was a few minute delay. Later in the game, the Sox had an injury in their DH spot, so Roger ended up having an at bat, and lo and behold hit a seeing eye single up the middle. Crowd went crazy in both instances. You never know what you’ll see in baseball.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,476
Not here
I remember being at a game around 1990 when I was @ Northeastern. Night game, Clemens against Dave Stewart when the A’s were dominant. The lights malfunctioned in the middle innings, so there was a few minute delay. Later in the game, the Sox had an injury in their DH spot, so Roger ended up having an at bat, and lo and behold hit a seeing eye single up the middle. Crowd went crazy in both instances. You never know what you’ll see in baseball.
I was there. Pretty sure it was a weekend afternoon. Lotta people left so the wifey and I found some seats real near the Sox on deck circle. I was really hoping Clemens would get the CG and once they lost the DH I thought it was damn near impossible. When he came to the on deck circle, I thought to myself, "Who the fuck is...wait...holy shit."

Fun fact, also Jose Malave's major league debut.

Fake Edit--Thursday, 6 PM start. Thanks brain.

Real Edit-- The box score https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199605230.shtml
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,698
I thought I was the only person to remember José Malavé's career. Man did he hit some great looking fly balls.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,476
Not here
I thought I was the only person to remember José Malavé's career. Man did he hit some great looking fly balls.
Are you kidding? I remember Steve Rodriguez' career. The major league portion was...short.