A Time to Worry: Celtics Postseason Concerns

Just a bit outside

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Those worries about Marcus need to remember that this was only his 3rd game back after missing a month. White has been great but Marcus is a better defender especially against a guy like Harden and his ability to switch on bigger guys. The set with Marcus setting a pick for Tatum and getting the pocket pass is one I think we will see a lot in the playoffs.
The bigger decision to me is which two play between Al, TL, Grant, White, and Brogdon. CJM is going to earn his money by making that choice which could be different from game to game.
 

lovegtm

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Cavs have been the best team in the league against other top 10 teams since January 1st, I’m with you. Not just their interior defense, but Mobley is starting to break out offensively, and Mitchell/Garland both hit tough shots, which is huge in the slog of the postseason.
Right, to make my concern explicit: Mitchell and Garland are really good, which gives Cleveland more than Philly or Milwaukee on the perimeter. They also have very good interior D.

I'd rank the teams, in terms of worry:
Milwaukee

Cleveland
Philly



Miami

NYK

everybody else
 

NomarsFool

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I’m a big fan of the Js but my biggest fears are with them. I don’t really like seeing JT iso dribble and try and hit step back/ side step/ fall away contested 3s. Does he hit some? Yes, but I feel like that is a low likelihood shot in that situation and he does it a lot. My other fear is the JB turnover in late game situations where he tries to dribble through three people. The Celtics are awesome when they move the ball and find the best shot. I feel like they are a completely different team in the last few minutes.
 

lexrageorge

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I'm probably over-posting today, but whatever.

It's interesting to me that NO ONE in this thread has been worried about the Celtics seeding. I thought "I don't care about homecourt advantage or opponent this year" might have been a controversial idea, but seems like there's general agreement that the East this year is all about who a team is, as opposed to whom they're playing or where.
After last night's win against the Sixers, the Celtics will almost assuredly finish with one of the top 2 seeds in the East. Not only are the Sixers effectively 5 games back in the standings, but the Celtics have a much better schedule the rest of the way. Philly has 2 visits to Milwaukee remaining, along with a west coast trip that involves games in Denver, Golden State, and Phoenix. So the Celtics seeding seems like a very minor concern.

I do think Coach Joe is going to make a push to finish as the top seed, but only within reason. And goal of the push will primarily to establish good winning habits and make sure their Top 8 rotation develops the necessary cohesion after having missed a good amount of time over the course of the season.
 

DJnVa

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In losses, Jaylen is shooting 64.7% from the FT line in the 4th quarter

In wins, he is shooting 80.5%.

Same attempts per quarter in both cases
And?

I would assume most players, good or bad, shoot worse in losses. That's what makes those games losses.
 

SteveF

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Coaching. You just don't know how quickly/effectively a coach will make adjustments until they are in a playoff series. Most coaches are too slow, and until proven otherwise Mazzulla is most coaches.
The offense when Tatum is off the floor. Tatum on, Brown off: ORating = 124. Brown on, Tatum off: ORating = 114.
 

NomarsFool

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In losses, Jaylen is shooting 64.7% from the FT line in the 4th quarter

In wins, he is shooting 80.5%.

Same attempts per quarter in both cases
How many attempts are there? He's had about 275 FTAs in 50 games, so roughly 5.5 per game, which would be about 1+ FTAs per Q4 (assuming they are all equally distributed, which I'm sure they are not). Seems like his FT contribution to wins vs. losses must be super miniscule. To put it another way, if he was shooting 80% from the line in the losses, how many more points would that have resulted in?
 

BigSoxFan

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1) Health: Once again, I think this is the best team in basketball when fully healthy. I am very concerned about TL. The elite guy we saw last year may never be coming back and that royally sucks. I think this team can overcome that but it still is just such a huge bummer. Obviously, health of Tatum/Brown is paramount but our key role players need to be healthy too, especially Brogdon. Need Brogdon, White, and Horford to be “right”. We are always a handful when they are.

2) Tatum pressing: You can tell Tatum wants a title so bad it hurts. Last year was so close and he clearly is one title away from joining Celtics lore. His image around the league has been raised last couple years. The only thing missing is that ring.

3) Q4 execution: They’ve gotten better but I still always have a little seed of doubt in my head about this team’s ability to execute when it matters most. Think that’s just Game 4 PTSD but that hurdle will remain until they actually clear it in the Finals.
 

Kliq

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I'm not worried at all--Celtics are putting #18 up in the rafters next fall.
 

the moops

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And?

I would assume most players, good or bad, shoot worse in losses. That's what makes those games losses.
:shrug:

I was just offering some context for the guy who was worried about Jaylen's free throw shooting in late game situations. And yes, if you shoot worse you tend to not have as good of outcomes
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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How many attempts are there? He's had about 275 FTAs in 50 games, so roughly 5.5 per game, which would be about 1+ FTAs per Q4 (assuming they are all equally distributed, which I'm sure they are not). Seems like his FT contribution to wins vs. losses must be super miniscule. To put it another way, if he was shooting 80% from the line in the losses, how many more points would that have resulted in?
Looks like JB is 11-17 from the FT line in losses in 4Q.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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For me it’s really just playing clean. They pissed away a bunch of playoff games with 15+ turnovers and often the worst kind—at or above the FT line allowing free points the other way.

And not always just a result of purely going ISO, but from guys trying to get into the point to create good looks. The defenses are going to clamp down and they just need to be better when that happens. Keeping up the ball and body movement will be critical and taking one less dribble when necessary.

Can’t have those games where the opponent takes 15-20 more shots.
 

BaseballJones

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The turnover issue really concerns me, as I think it comes into play in a major way in the playoffs. But also I worry about other teams just playing great too. I can easily see the Celtics losing to the Bucks (I think Boston is a tick better, but not by a ton). Giannis with 35 a night, Middleton pumping in 25+, and even Jrue contributing 20-25, while getting annoyingly good amount of support from their other guys. That's not crazy talk. That's totally feasible. Giannis is still absolutely elite. Wouldn't shock me at all for a healthy Bucks team to beat a healthy Celtics team in a 7-game series. Milwaukee is damned good.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The turnover issue really concerns me, as I think it comes into play in a major way in the playoffs. But also I worry about other teams just playing great too. I can easily see the Celtics losing to the Bucks (I think Boston is a tick better, but not by a ton). Giannis with 35 a night, Middleton pumping in 25+, and even Jrue contributing 20-25, while getting annoyingly good amount of support from their other guys. That's not crazy talk. That's totally feasible. Giannis is still absolutely elite. Wouldn't shock me at all for a healthy Bucks team to beat a healthy Celtics team in a 7-game series. Milwaukee is damned good.
Agree that MIL could beat BOS but unless Coach Bud changes things up BOS is a bad matchup for them schematically as MIL is going to give up a ton of open 3Ps and BOS should be able to take advantage of it. If MIL were to win a 7 game series against BOS, that probably means that BOS shot in the 30% range from 3P land. Which is possible but with the number of shooters BOS has IMO unlikely.
 

bosockboy

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Agree that MIL could beat BOS but unless Coach Bud changes things up BOS is a bad matchup for them schematically as MIL is going to give up a ton of open 3Ps and BOS should be able to take advantage of it. If MIL were to win a 7 game series against BOS, that probably means that BOS shot in the 30% range from 3P land. Which is possible but with the number of shooters BOS has IMO unlikely.
Yep we’d have to play poorly. Our B squad gave them every bit they could handle two weeks ago.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Does this current Celtics team have issues with too many turnovers? They currently sit in the top ten of fewest turnovers per game this season.

I get the reference is to last year's playoffs but not seeing a particularly turnover prone group.
 

benhogan

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Agree that MIL could beat BOS but unless Coach Bud changes things up BOS is a bad matchup for them schematically as MIL is going to give up a ton of open 3Ps and BOS should be able to take advantage of it. If MIL were to win a 7 game series against BOS, that probably means that BOS shot in the 30% range from 3P land. Which is possible but with the number of shooters BOS has IMO unlikely.
Lopez, Embiid, Jokic all drop deep. Horford, Grant, and the addition of Mike Muscala can make those teams pay for that style of defense if Boston goes 5-wide.
 

BaseballJones

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Agree that MIL could beat BOS but unless Coach Bud changes things up BOS is a bad matchup for them schematically as MIL is going to give up a ton of open 3Ps and BOS should be able to take advantage of it. If MIL were to win a 7 game series against BOS, that probably means that BOS shot in the 30% range from 3P land. Which is possible but with the number of shooters BOS has IMO unlikely.
In a series between those two teams I’d expect a lot of close games, and that means just a miss or two could make the difference. Doesn’t take much at all to tilt things in Milwaukee’s favor. Last year without Middleton the Bucks gave the Celtics all they could handle. Now I think this year’s Celtics are better than last year’s Celtics, but the Bucks will also have Middleton.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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In a series between those two teams I’d expect a lot of close games, and that means just a miss or two could make the difference. Doesn’t take much at all to tilt things in Milwaukee’s favor. Last year without Middleton the Bucks gave the Celtics all they could handle. Now I think this year’s Celtics are better than last year’s Celtics, but the Bucks will also have Middleton.
I would think that if the games are close MIL probably has an edge due to Giannis but I wouldn't expect a lot of close games. If the Cs shoot well, the Cs will blow them out and if they shoot poorly, they'll probably lose pretty comfortably. I think that was seen last year. Here's the margin of victory for the games and the Cs 3P%:

MIL by 12 (.360 = 18-50; MIL shot 12-34 from 3P)
BOS by 23 (.465; note MIL also shot 3-18 from 3P)
MIL by 2 (.273 = 9-33)
BOS by 8 (.378)
MIL by 3 (.323; MIL shot 13-29 from 3P)
BOS by 13 (.395)
BOS by 28 (.400)

yes MIL didn't have Middleton but the Cs were basically playing 8 guys, two of whom were Theis and PP. Assuming TL is healthy, the Cs will have massively upgraded from that.
 

benhogan

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In a series between those two teams I’d expect a lot of close games, and that means just a miss or two could make the difference. Doesn’t take much at all to tilt things in Milwaukee’s favor. Last year without Middleton the Bucks gave the Celtics all they could handle. Now I think this year’s Celtics are better than last year’s Celtics, but the Bucks will also have Middleton.
Agreed it will be close. Middleton was missing last year is the media narrative.
BUT these options put Boston over the top.
1. While improving the Middleton of old has not re-appeared
2. Brogdon (in lieu of PP) addition cancels out any KM bump
3. Celtics' offensive style/metrics/3pt shooting are improved from last season.
4. Horford/White are improved 3pt shooters this season. Derrick definitely worked on his stroke this summer and it shows.
5. Muscala addition gives them a viable 9th man. He's a better option than Daniel Theis, who played 6/7 games last year.

Every addition and everything Boston has worked on offensively this season has been shaped around beating BIG man drop defense.
 
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lovegtm

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I would think that if the games are close MIL probably has an edge due to Giannis but I wouldn't expect a lot of close games. If the Cs shoot well, the Cs will blow them out and if they shoot poorly, they'll probably lose pretty comfortably. I think that was seen last year. Here's the margin of victory for the games and the Cs 3P%:

MIL by 12 (.360 = 18-50; MIL shot 12-34 from 3P)
BOS by 23 (.465; note MIL also shot 3-18 from 3P)
MIL by 2 (.273 = 9-33)
BOS by 8 (.378)
MIL by 3 (.323; MIL shot 13-29 from 3P)
BOS by 13 (.395)
BOS by 28 (.400)

yes MIL didn't have Middleton but the Cs were basically playing 8 guys, two of whom were Theis and PP. Assuming TL is healthy, the Cs will have massively upgraded from that.
Two things jump out there:

1. The Celtics lost two really close games in which they shot poorly from 3. So even when they shot poorly, they didn't lose "comfortably"--they actually almost won the series in 5. The "Middleton was out" narrative somewhat obscures how close the Bucks came to getting completely trashed.

2. I forgot that PP and Theis were part of that 8. The Celtics are significantly deeper now in personnel, and White is at another level relative to last year.
 

lovegtm

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Does this current Celtics team have issues with too many turnovers? They currently sit in the top ten of fewest turnovers per game this season.

I get the reference is to last year's playoffs but not seeing a particularly turnover prone group.
I agree that the turnover worries are probably overblown. Particularly this year, people get upset when turnovers happen, forgetting that turnovers are just as much a part of NBA basketball as missed shots. Yeah, you don't want either, but you have games where you miss more shots and games where you turn it over more.

On the other hand, to steelman the turnover worries: people are concerned that dialed-in playoff defenses will affect the Celtics style in particular. I'm not sure on that one way or the other.
 

the moops

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Does this current Celtics team have issues with too many turnovers? They currently sit in the top ten of fewest turnovers per game this season.

I get the reference is to last year's playoffs but not seeing a particularly turnover prone group.
In 4th quarters they rank 11th in fewest turnovers. I don't think it is an issue, it just pops up when it happens several times over a few game sample
 

Toe Nash

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Other than injuries I don't have too many worries. There is a huge difference between this and last year -- I will forever believe that starting out so poorly meant they had to go all-out from basically January on, never could quite rest, which made the Bucks series a total slog (even outside the TL injury), which let them keep Miami around for 7, which made them pretty gassed against GS who had a very different path. Even in mid-March they were barely clear of the play-in.

They are currently 12 games ahead of the play-in so it's looking like they can use March and April to just get everyone rested and in the right mindset for the playoffs which (again, barring random injury risk) should give them a huge advantage compared to last year.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Two things jump out there:

1. The Celtics lost two really close games in which they shot poorly from 3. So even when they shot poorly, they didn't lose "comfortably"--they actually almost won the series in 5. The "Middleton was out" narrative somewhat obscures how close the Bucks came to getting completely trashed.
I personally blame not winning G5 for the loss in the Finals. If the Cs had pulled out the MIL series in 6 games, I think the extra rest would have allowed them to beat MIA in fewer than 7 games, making them more rested for GSW. (At least I can dream. :cool: )

Going back to the G5 boxscore, even though they shot 10-31 from 3P land, they had a 12 point lead with 9:27 left in the 4Q. It took them (i) not shooting a 3P in the 4Q (which I had forgotten about and which doesn't happen under Mazzulla) and (ii) MIL going 6-6 from 3P in the 4Q to lose that game.

IMO, CLE will be a tougher series than MIL but I will be super interested in seeing the games against CLE on Wednesday and March 6.
 

ifmanis5

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Good posts in this thread and more of a consensus than not. Which makes sense for the NBA betting favorite to win it all.
Honestly, my biggest concern is a fully healthy Bucks team with a 100% Giannis when he's allowed to take 5 steps, swing his elbows and kicks his legs going to the basket at will. It's unstoppable and a physical beating which we saw last year. I fear that. There is little else I fear other than whatever team comes out of the West for the Finals if they make it that far.
 

Fishy1

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Bucks are on a hell of a heater right now. I'm scared of Giannis and Jrue... The rest of that team? Not so much right now. Lot of grinders, but they will handfeed the Celtics open looks, and as others have pointed out, the C's are built to take advantage of that now. Muscala, Brogdon, White and Grant are all going to get a ton of wide open shots off.

As @benhogan pointed out, if Middleton gets his game together, then they'll be more competitive, but he has been, like, really really bad since coming back and has really struggled to stay healthy now for a while. Wrong side of 30, too.

Bucks are sitting at 6th in the league in NTRG, btw, at +3.6. Only the 76ers (3.8) and Cavs (5.6) and Celtics (6.1) are better in the EC. Personally the defensive versatility and scoring of Cleveland scare me more than the Bucks, who I think we would blow the doors off of.
 

Devizier

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Biggest worry after injuries is the quality of opposition. That’s not to speak of any particular opponent, but that pretty much anyone the Celtics encounter in the playoffs will be a tough out. I felt this was true last year to some extent although the Nets turned out to be a bit of a paper tiger. Big thing is the league has a lot more parity now and you could make a credible argument for a lot of playoff squads as at least peripheral contenders. That means a lot more slogs and more potential for upsets and other unexpected results.
 

JM3

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In losses, Jaylen is shooting 64.7% from the FT line in the 4th quarter

In wins, he is shooting 80.5%.

Same attempts per quarter in both cases
On "clutch" free throw attempts Jaylen is 18 for 27, 66.7% this season, compared to 77.7% overall (which is basically 21 of 27).
 

benhogan

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Bucks are on a hell of a heater right now. I'm scared of Giannis and Jrue... The rest of that team? Not so much right now. Lot of grinders, but they will handfeed the Celtics open looks, and as others have pointed out, the C's are built to take advantage of that now. Muscala, Brogdon, White and Grant are all going to get a ton of wide open shots off.

As @benhogan pointed out, if Middleton gets his game together, then they'll be more competitive, but he has been, like, really really bad since coming back and has really struggled to stay healthy now for a while. Wrong side of 30, too.

Bucks are sitting at 6th in the league in NTRG, btw, at +3.6. Only the 76ers (3.8) and Cavs (5.6) and Celtics (6.1) are better in the EC. Personally the defensive versatility and scoring of Cleveland scare me more than the Bucks, who I think we would blow the doors off of.
Thats fair....Just to balance it out from Milwaukee's perspective
1. Jevon Carter has improved & plays a bigger role
2. Ingles is a nice veteran addition
3. Crowder adds a wing defender. They will not have to depend on Grayson Allen as much. Boston relentlessly attacked Allen

BUT I keep going back to Milwaukee's Brook Lopez conundrum. He is in the DPOY conversation & a very good player but is not nearly as effective when playing Boston. Brook was hurting their line-ups by Games 5, 6 & 7 last year. It's a style thing and Brad knows Coach Bud's Achilles heel.

Cleveland & Philly are probably just as dangerous, even though the NBA media is pounding the Buck's "The Return of the Middleton" narrative.
 

Cellar-Door

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Thats fair....Just to balance it out from Milwaukee's perspective
1. Jevon Carter has improved & plays a bigger role
2. Ingles is a nice veteran addition
3. Crowder adds a wing defender. They will not have to depend on Grayson Allen as much. Boston relentlessly attacked Allen

BUT I keep going back to Milwaukee's Brook Lopez conundrum. He is in the DPOY conversation & a very good player but is not nearly as effective when playing Boston. Brook was hurting their line-ups by Games 5, 6 & 7 last year. It's a style thing and Brad knows Coach Bud's Achilles heel.

Cleveland & Philly are probably just as dangerous, even though the NBA media is pounding the Buck's "The Return of the Middleton" narrative.
I do think Middleton changes a lot, in that part of the Celtics' success against Giannis last year was they just said "yeah, we don't respect anyone else on this team as a scorer" and I don't think they do that with Middleton, I think he changes how you defend systematically.

Honestly the best possible scenario for BOS is that they get the 1 seed with Bucks 2 and the 3 seed knocks the Bucks out. Bucks and Cavs are the teams I worry about in a series, though I think BOS can beat either. PHI is the team I'm least worried about, they just match up terribly, particularly in the playoffs where you're not getting massive FT games 3-4 times, which is how PHI would beat BOS>
 

Fishy1

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Thats fair....Just to balance it out from Milwaukee's perspective
1. Jevon Carter has improved & plays a bigger role
2. Ingles is a nice veteran addition
3. Crowder adds a wing defender. They will not have to depend on Grayson Allen as much. Boston relentlessly attacked Allen

BUT I keep going back to Milwaukee's Brook Lopez conundrum. He is in the DPOY conversation & a very good player but is not nearly as effective when playing Boston. Brook was hurting their line-ups by Games 5, 6 & 7 last year. It's a style thing and Brad knows Coach Bud's Achilles heel.

Cleveland & Philly are probably just as dangerous, even though the NBA media is pounding the Buck's "The Return of the Middleton" narrative.
Carter and Crowder, absolutely. But I think Ingles is cooked and would be hunted off the floor, FWIW.

Agree 100% on the Lopez issue. Celtics will feast at the three-point line against the Bucks.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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I'm super interested in what Crowder actually contributes. That's a huge amount of time away from playing NBA basketball, but he's been back for two games and hit four of his first five 3-pt shots, so apparently the layoff wasn't that bad for his shot.
 

chilidawg

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I'm super interested in what Crowder actually contributes. That's a huge amount of time away from playing NBA basketball, but he's been back for two games and hit four of his first five 3-pt shots, so apparently the layoff wasn't that bad for his shot.
He's shooting well, but had no chance staying in front of Booker on the perimeter yesterday. I think he's of limited value defensively, but he is a veteran who knows what to do.
 

Deathofthebambino

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If Milwaukee/Philly square up for an entire 7 game series, I'm placing the O/U on free throws at 100,000.


Right now, the only concern I have with the C's are (1) potential injuries and (2) the entire team going ice cold from deep for an entire series.

Having watched every game this season (and for many many years now), those two seem to be the only recipe for beating them, and even then, it usually requires a super human effort from someone unexpected on the other team.
 

Jimbodandy

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I agree that the turnover worries are probably overblown. Particularly this year, people get upset when turnovers happen, forgetting that turnovers are just as much a part of NBA basketball as missed shots. Yeah, you don't want either, but you have games where you miss more shots and games where you turn it over more.

On the other hand, to steelman the turnover worries: people are concerned that dialed-in playoff defenses will affect the Celtics style in particular. I'm not sure on that one way or the other.
Two separate good posts within one post. The bolded is a concern with me, because the style of offense is still dependent on the drives being credible and fruitful. I do think that we're getting almost everyone's A game when we play them, so that's fantastic. We haven't coughed up a lot of furballs comparatively to prior years even though we're bigger targets this year. That's the good news. The bad news is that our drive-based offense gets easy to defense when refs swallow whistles and allow a lot of contact through the drive and handsiness from nearby guys covering someone else. Of course most offenses rely on drives and ISO to some extent, but ours works well because we have five legit guys who can take their guy off the dribble and challenge the rim, causing rotation, leaving guys open for catch and shoot open 3s. If Brogdon, White, et al. can get pushed off their line without fouls being called, things kinda fall apart IMO. I mention those two because Smart and Tatum are strong enough to keep pretty much any line and Brown is more or less there too. Overall though, long, handsy, physical teams are our kryptonite. And if refs let the hand and body checking go a lot more, then it can be problematic. I'm a little worried about that.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Two separate good posts within one post. The bolded is a concern with me, because the style of offense is still dependent on the drives being credible and fruitful. I do think that we're getting almost everyone's A game when we play them, so that's fantastic. We haven't coughed up a lot of furballs comparatively to prior years even though we're bigger targets this year. That's the good news. The bad news is that our drive-based offense gets easy to defense when refs swallow whistles and allow a lot of contact through the drive and handsiness from nearby guys covering someone else. Of course most offenses rely on drives and ISO to some extent, but ours works well because we have five legit guys who can take their guy off the dribble and challenge the rim, causing rotation, leaving guys open for catch and shoot open 3s. If Brogdon, White, et al. can get pushed off their line without fouls being called, things kinda fall apart IMO. I mention those two because Smart and Tatum are strong enough to keep pretty much any line and Brown is more or less there too. Overall though, long, handsy, physical teams are our kryptonite. And if refs let the hand and body checking go a lot more, then it can be problematic. I'm a little worried about that.
As long as the refs let things go or not go equally on both ends of the floor, for both teams, I'm not worried too much about that.

Guys like Smart, White, Brogdon, Al, Grant, Jaylen, Tatum, if allowed to be handsy and bumping people off their line on defense, have the ability to slow down an opposing offense more than they will be slowed down.

If Embiid gets calls like he's going to break into a million pieces if someone touches him, but he's allowed to decapitate players on the other end, that's where it gets dicey.
 

Jimbodandy

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As long as the refs let things go or not go equally on both ends of the floor, for both teams, I'm not worried too much about that.

Guys like Smart, White, Brogdon, Al, Grant, Jaylen, Tatum, if allowed to be handsy and bumping people off their line on defense, have the ability to slow down an opposing offense more than they will be slowed down.

If Embiid gets calls like he's going to break into a million pieces if someone touches him, but he's allowed to decapitate players on the other end, that's where it gets dicey.
Your perspective is valid. It will help us on defense too. My point is that we're already pretty good on defense. Gumming the works on both ends probably hurts us more than helps us IMO.
 

NomarsFool

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Your perspective is valid. It will help us on defense too. My point is that we're already pretty good on defense. Gumming the works on both ends probably hurts us more than helps us IMO.
i feel like some of the times we have played Miami they’ve been really able to take us out of our offensive game by playing physical and Jimmy Butler still manages to get 40 FTAs.
 

lovegtm

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Leaving aside the bad shooting, this Knicks game was a great example of Tatum being my number one concern heading into the postseason.

He simply hasn't played remotely like a top-10 player since the ASB.

Before people jump in noting that it's a small sample, he's had a great season, the regular season is long........

I AGREE WITH YOU.


I'm just saying that if the guy from the past week is out there in the playoffs, the Cs will be headed home in Round 2. Imo, a lot of the "bad shooting luck" actually starts with Tatum playing poorly, because all the 3-point looks get marginally worse, there are fewer FTs for the Cs, less at the rim, and things can quickly snowball.
 

bosockboy

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Jul 15, 2005
20,952
St. Louis, MO
Leaving aside the bad shooting, this Knicks game was a great example of Tatum being my number one concern heading into the postseason.

He simply hasn't played remotely like a top-10 player since the ASB.

Before people jump in noting that it's a small sample, he's had a great season, the regular season is long........

I AGREE WITH YOU.


I'm just saying that if the guy from the past week is out there in the playoffs, the Cs will be headed home in Round 2. Imo, a lot of the "bad shooting luck" actually starts with Tatum playing poorly, because all the 3-point looks get marginally worse, there are fewer FTs for the Cs, less at the rim, and things can quickly snowball.
6 stinkers in his last 10. If it’s just a slump I’m sure he’ll recover very soon. However, first team NBA players generally don’t have these kind of slumps.
 

RorschachsMask

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Aug 23, 2011
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Lynn
6 stinkers in his last 10. If it’s just a slump I’m sure he’ll recover very soon. However, first team NBA players generally don’t have these kind of slumps.
Giannis earlier this year, had the following over a 14 game stretch.

7-17
9-26
5-13
9-22
17-39
7-18
2-7
3-10
6-15

Luka had a 15 game stretch with the following

5-17
9-23
5-17
10-26
7-23
10-23

Hell even Steph had this 10 game stretch

7-17
6-17
3-17
6-16
8-22


It happens to everyone outside of Jokic, whose a machine. First team nba players absolutely have slumps like this, every season.
 
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lars10

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Jul 31, 2007
12,621
6 stinkers in his last 10. If it’s just a slump I’m sure he’ll recover very soon. However, first team NBA players generally don’t have these kind of slumps.
I feel like this a drum that you keep banging. Is it true? Do you have any evidence to back it up other than your opinion/apparent desire to place Tatum at a lower tier?
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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around the way
I feel like this a drum that you keep banging. Is it true? Do you have any evidence to back it up other than your opinion/apparent desire to place Tatum at a lower tier?
Tatum in particular goes on stretches where he forgets how to shoot for weeks and then figures it out. Somehow every meaningful metric still thinks that he's a top 10 player.
 

timelysarcasm

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Jul 23, 2010
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Los Angeles by way of Roxbury
6 stinkers in his last 10. If it’s just a slump I’m sure he’ll recover very soon. However, first team NBA players generally don’t have these kind of slumps.
To add on to RorschachsMask's data:

Booker 12/4 - 12/15:
7-16
4-13
6-17
5-17
6-22

What exactly do you mean by "generally don't have these kind of slumps"? Based on what information?

Tatum is in a slump, for me the concern is it's wrist related (hopefully not - and his stroke in the ASG looked fine obviously).

In a vacuum he's no different than other stars who go through it from time to time.