9/21/2023 - Oh Shugart, Shugart
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Chase Shugart is a 5'10 right handed pitcher from Bridge City, TX. He was a 12th round pick in 2018 & signed for a $125k signing bonus. He turns 27 next month & has not been particularly good.
Last year he was called up to Worcester & played 20 meh games. This year he has spent all year at Worcester & been worse at basically everything.
ERA: 6.82 to 8.66
FIP: 4.87 to 6.59
xFIP: 4.33 to 5.71
K/9: 8.2 to 7.6
BB/9: 3.1 to 4.3
WHIP: 1.58 to 1.90
This is Shugart's 2nd start of the season. In the 1st one, he pitched 2 scoreless innings with a hit, a walk & a strikeout.
He had 1 start last season (also in AAA) & pitched 4 scoreless innings with 2 hits & 3 strikeouts.
He is clearly missing his calling as an opener.
Last year he was called up to Worcester & played 20 meh games. This year he has spent all year at Worcester & been worse at basically everything.
ERA: 6.82 to 8.66
FIP: 4.87 to 6.59
xFIP: 4.33 to 5.71
K/9: 8.2 to 7.6
BB/9: 3.1 to 4.3
WHIP: 1.58 to 1.90
This is Shugart's 2nd start of the season. In the 1st one, he pitched 2 scoreless innings with a hit, a walk & a strikeout.
He had 1 start last season (also in AAA) & pitched 4 scoreless innings with 2 hits & 3 strikeouts.
He is clearly missing his calling as an opener.
You know we're scraping the bottom of the barrel for content when I'm doing a statistical breakdown of Chase Shugart.
In that regard, let's rerank the 2018 draft picks...
1) Triston Casas (1/26, $2.55m bonus)
2) Jarren Duran (7/220, $190k bonus)
3) Thaddeus Ward (5/160, $275k bonus)
4) Ryan Fernandez (23/700, $125k bonus) - #41 prospect
5) AJ Politi (15/460, $25k bonus) - #57 prospect
6) Elih Marrero (8/250, $158k bonus) - #158 prospect
7) Nick Decker (2/64, $1.25m bonus) - #170 prospect
8) Chase Shugart (12/370, $125k) - #228 prospect
9) Yusniel Padron-Artiles (22/670, $75k) - #248 prospect
In that regard, let's rerank the 2018 draft picks...
1) Triston Casas (1/26, $2.55m bonus)
2) Jarren Duran (7/220, $190k bonus)
3) Thaddeus Ward (5/160, $275k bonus)
4) Ryan Fernandez (23/700, $125k bonus) - #41 prospect
5) AJ Politi (15/460, $25k bonus) - #57 prospect
6) Elih Marrero (8/250, $158k bonus) - #158 prospect
7) Nick Decker (2/64, $1.25m bonus) - #170 prospect
8) Chase Shugart (12/370, $125k) - #228 prospect
9) Yusniel Padron-Artiles (22/670, $75k) - #248 prospect
2019...
1) Chris Murphy (6/197, $200k bonus)
2) Stephen Scott (10/317, $50k) - #37 prospect
3) Noah Song (4/137, $100k) - #45 prospect
4) Brandon Walter (26/797, $35k) - #55 prospect
5) Ryan Zeferjahn (3/107, $100k) - #72 prospect
6) Matthew Lugo (2/69, $1.1m) - #74 prospect
7) Brock Bell (7/227, $465k) - #82 prospect
8) Alex Erro (17/527, $125k) - #117 prospect
9) Dylan Spacke (21/647, $75k) - #149 prospect
10) Karson Simas (25/767, $175k) - #176 prospect
11) Cody Scroggins (9/287, $100k) - #208 prospect
12) Brendan Cellucci (12/377, $345k) - #226 prospect (but I need to move him up some)
1) Chris Murphy (6/197, $200k bonus)
2) Stephen Scott (10/317, $50k) - #37 prospect
3) Noah Song (4/137, $100k) - #45 prospect
4) Brandon Walter (26/797, $35k) - #55 prospect
5) Ryan Zeferjahn (3/107, $100k) - #72 prospect
6) Matthew Lugo (2/69, $1.1m) - #74 prospect
7) Brock Bell (7/227, $465k) - #82 prospect
8) Alex Erro (17/527, $125k) - #117 prospect
9) Dylan Spacke (21/647, $75k) - #149 prospect
10) Karson Simas (25/767, $175k) - #176 prospect
11) Cody Scroggins (9/287, $100k) - #208 prospect
12) Brendan Cellucci (12/377, $345k) - #226 prospect (but I need to move him up some)
2020...
1) Nick Yorke (1/17, $2.7m bonus) - #11 prospect
2) Blaze Jordan (3/89, $1.75m) - #17 prospect
3) Shane Drohan (5/148, $600k) - #21 prospect
4) Brian Van Belle (UDFA, $20k) - #52 prospect
5) Jeremy Wu-Yelland (4/118, $200k) - #125 prospect
6) Juan Montero (UDFA, $20k) - #181 prospect
7) Maceo Campbell (UDFA, $20k) - #203 prospect
8) Jordan DiValerio (UDFA, $20k) - #220 prospect
9) Robert Kwiatkowski (UDFA, $20k) - #237 prospect
10) Joey Stock (UDFA, $20k) - #243 prospect
11) Casey Cobb (UDFA, $20k) - #245 prospect
12) Nate Tellier (UDFA, $20k) - #254 prospect
1) Nick Yorke (1/17, $2.7m bonus) - #11 prospect
2) Blaze Jordan (3/89, $1.75m) - #17 prospect
3) Shane Drohan (5/148, $600k) - #21 prospect
4) Brian Van Belle (UDFA, $20k) - #52 prospect
5) Jeremy Wu-Yelland (4/118, $200k) - #125 prospect
6) Juan Montero (UDFA, $20k) - #181 prospect
7) Maceo Campbell (UDFA, $20k) - #203 prospect
8) Jordan DiValerio (UDFA, $20k) - #220 prospect
9) Robert Kwiatkowski (UDFA, $20k) - #237 prospect
10) Joey Stock (UDFA, $20k) - #243 prospect
11) Casey Cobb (UDFA, $20k) - #245 prospect
12) Nate Tellier (UDFA, $20k) - #254 prospect
2021...
1) Marcelo Mayer (1/4, $6.66m bonus) - #1 prospect
2) Luis Guerrero (17/496, $123k) - #16
3) Hunter Dobbins (8/226, $198k) - #20
4) Nathan Hickey (5/136, $1m) - #24
5) Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (4/105, $498k) - #31
6) Christopher Troye (12/346, $123k) - #36
7) Niko Kavadas (11/316, $250k) - #73
8) Phillip Sikes (18/526, $98k) - #83
9) Tyler McDonough (3/75, $829k) - #86
10) Jacob Webb (14/406, $123k - #108
11) Tyler Miller (9/256, $158k) - #112
12) Wyatt Olds (7/196, $237k) - #121
13) Tyler Uberstine (19/556, $98k) - #142
14) Kier Meredith (UDFA, $20k) - #190
15) Daniel McElveny (6/166, $198k) - #201
1) Marcelo Mayer (1/4, $6.66m bonus) - #1 prospect
2) Luis Guerrero (17/496, $123k) - #16
3) Hunter Dobbins (8/226, $198k) - #20
4) Nathan Hickey (5/136, $1m) - #24
5) Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (4/105, $498k) - #31
6) Christopher Troye (12/346, $123k) - #36
7) Niko Kavadas (11/316, $250k) - #73
8) Phillip Sikes (18/526, $98k) - #83
9) Tyler McDonough (3/75, $829k) - #86
10) Jacob Webb (14/406, $123k - #108
11) Tyler Miller (9/256, $158k) - #112
12) Wyatt Olds (7/196, $237k) - #121
13) Tyler Uberstine (19/556, $98k) - #142
14) Kier Meredith (UDFA, $20k) - #190
15) Daniel McElveny (6/166, $198k) - #201
2017...
1) Tanner Houck (1/24, $2.61m bonus)
2) Kutter Crawford (16/491, $125k)
3) Rio Gomez (36/1,091, $10k) - #159
4) Tyler Dearden (29/881, $140k) - #187
5) Tyler Esplin (7/221, $250k) - #223
6) Dominic LoBrutto (18/551, $100k) - #250
7) Aaron Perry (14/431, $173k) - #255
1) Tanner Houck (1/24, $2.61m bonus)
2) Kutter Crawford (16/491, $125k)
3) Rio Gomez (36/1,091, $10k) - #159
4) Tyler Dearden (29/881, $140k) - #187
5) Tyler Esplin (7/221, $250k) - #223
6) Dominic LoBrutto (18/551, $100k) - #250
7) Aaron Perry (14/431, $173k) - #255
2022...
1) Roman Anthony (2/79, $2.5m bonus) - #2 prospect
2) Mikey Romero (1/24, $2.3m) - #14 prospect
3) Chase Meidroth (4/129, $273k) - #22 prospect
4) Isaac Coffey (10/309, $7.5k) - #28 prospect
5) Brooks Brannon (9/279, $713k) - #32 prospect
6) Dalton Rogers (3/99, $448k) - #38 prospect
7) Alex Hoppe (6/189, $32k) - #39 prospect
8) Cutter Coffey (2/41, $1.85m) - #42 prospect
9) Noah Dean (5/159, $323k) - #66 prospect
10) Jonathan Brand (8/249, $7.5k) - #69 prospect
11) Caleb Bolden (7/219, $7.5k) - #94 prospect
12) Hayden Mullins (12/369, $98k) - #136 prospect
13) Garrett Ramsey (16/489, $98k) - #153 prospect
14) Deundre Jones (17/519, $123k) - #155 prospect
15) Bryant Zayas (UDFA, $48k) - #163 prospect
16) Nathan Landry (15/459, $113k) - #168 prospect
17) Connor Butler (20/609, $73k) - #169 prospect
18) Austin Ehrlicher (18/549, $200k) - #191 prospect
19) Matt Donlan (UDFA, $50k) - #209 prospect
20) Jaret Godman (19/579, $123k) - #216 prospect
1) Roman Anthony (2/79, $2.5m bonus) - #2 prospect
2) Mikey Romero (1/24, $2.3m) - #14 prospect
3) Chase Meidroth (4/129, $273k) - #22 prospect
4) Isaac Coffey (10/309, $7.5k) - #28 prospect
5) Brooks Brannon (9/279, $713k) - #32 prospect
6) Dalton Rogers (3/99, $448k) - #38 prospect
7) Alex Hoppe (6/189, $32k) - #39 prospect
8) Cutter Coffey (2/41, $1.85m) - #42 prospect
9) Noah Dean (5/159, $323k) - #66 prospect
10) Jonathan Brand (8/249, $7.5k) - #69 prospect
11) Caleb Bolden (7/219, $7.5k) - #94 prospect
12) Hayden Mullins (12/369, $98k) - #136 prospect
13) Garrett Ramsey (16/489, $98k) - #153 prospect
14) Deundre Jones (17/519, $123k) - #155 prospect
15) Bryant Zayas (UDFA, $48k) - #163 prospect
16) Nathan Landry (15/459, $113k) - #168 prospect
17) Connor Butler (20/609, $73k) - #169 prospect
18) Austin Ehrlicher (18/549, $200k) - #191 prospect
19) Matt Donlan (UDFA, $50k) - #209 prospect
20) Jaret Godman (19/579, $123k) - #216 prospect
I guess I'll do 2023, just so I can have an update at the end of next year with everyone moving a ton, because most of these guys haven't even really played, so who knows???
1) Kyle Teel (1/14, $4m bonus) - #3 prospect
2) Nazzan Zanetello (2/50, $3m) - #15
3) Kristian Campbell (4/132, $493k) - #27
4) Antonio Anderson (3/83, $1.5m) - #30
5) Matt Duffy (4/115, $350k) - #61
6) Justin Riemer (4/133, $500k) - #78
7) Connelly Early (5/151, $409k) - #81
8) Max Carlson (12/358, $150k) - #107
9) Stanley Tucker (19/568, $150k) - #120
10) Caden Rose (7/208, $150k) - #126
11) Nelly Taylor (11/328, $300k) - #133
12) CJ Weins (6/178, $50k) - #151
13) Blake Wehunt (9/268, $100k) - #164
14) Trennor O'Donnell (8/238, $50k) - #167
15) Cade Feeney (13/388, $150k) - #171
16) Ryan Ammons (10/298, $50k) - #174
17) Zach Fogell (18/538, $150k) - #178
18) JoJo Ingrassia (14/418, $150k) - #182
19) Isaac Stebens (16/478, $150k) - #184
20) Drew Ehrhard (UDFA, $0) - #197
1) Kyle Teel (1/14, $4m bonus) - #3 prospect
2) Nazzan Zanetello (2/50, $3m) - #15
3) Kristian Campbell (4/132, $493k) - #27
4) Antonio Anderson (3/83, $1.5m) - #30
5) Matt Duffy (4/115, $350k) - #61
6) Justin Riemer (4/133, $500k) - #78
7) Connelly Early (5/151, $409k) - #81
8) Max Carlson (12/358, $150k) - #107
9) Stanley Tucker (19/568, $150k) - #120
10) Caden Rose (7/208, $150k) - #126
11) Nelly Taylor (11/328, $300k) - #133
12) CJ Weins (6/178, $50k) - #151
13) Blake Wehunt (9/268, $100k) - #164
14) Trennor O'Donnell (8/238, $50k) - #167
15) Cade Feeney (13/388, $150k) - #171
16) Ryan Ammons (10/298, $50k) - #174
17) Zach Fogell (18/538, $150k) - #178
18) JoJo Ingrassia (14/418, $150k) - #182
19) Isaac Stebens (16/478, $150k) - #184
20) Drew Ehrhard (UDFA, $0) - #197
I think I would be surprised if I consider Campbell much of a riser next season...but then again I already have him 21 positions ahead of SP (27 to 48), so they could certainly end up feeling that way.
I'm hoping Bloom bashing becomes less in vogue once we have a new GM. The joy people who don't understand team construction get out of his firing is truly bizarre.
Predicting risers is an odd proposition because if you expect someone to be excellent the next year, one would tend to rank them higher now since prospect lists aren't based on how good a guy is playing at the moment, but how he projects.
...but let me try anyway:
#18 - Eddinson Paulino (SP #20)
I see a path for him to be top 10 next year. He has all the tools, & after a slow start, really got going the last 2 months of the season in Greenville.
From July 28th to the end of the regular season:
39-123 (.317 BA)
9 doubles
5 homers (.593 SLG)
17 walks (12.1%, .400 OBP)
27 strikeouts (22.0%)
So slash of .317/.400/.593, .993 OPS over a pretty good sample. It led me to move him up to 18, but if he sustains it while moving up to Portland...
& he just turned 21 in July.
...but let me try anyway:
#18 - Eddinson Paulino (SP #20)
I see a path for him to be top 10 next year. He has all the tools, & after a slow start, really got going the last 2 months of the season in Greenville.
From July 28th to the end of the regular season:
39-123 (.317 BA)
9 doubles
5 homers (.593 SLG)
17 walks (12.1%, .400 OBP)
27 strikeouts (22.0%)
So slash of .317/.400/.593, .993 OPS over a pretty good sample. It led me to move him up to 18, but if he sustains it while moving up to Portland...
& he just turned 21 in July.
#31 Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (SP #26)
This just might be because I'm lower on him than I should be. But I think the ranking is fair. In his 2 seasons in the system, he drastically over-performed his xFIP at every point: 1.95 ERA/3.51 xFIP in the Complex League, 1.50 ERA/4.54 xFIP in '22 in Salem, 2.60 ERA/4.09 xFIP in '23 in Salem.
The reason he's had to do it in large part is that the walks are a bit out of control (4.39 bb/9 this season). But he's 6'3, has a fastball that gets up to 95, & throws 4 pitches. So if he could improve his control & stay healthy next year, hopefully starting in Greenville, he could get all the way up to top 10. Or even higher if he can also gain a couple more MPH.
I don't know how likely that is, but the ceiling is there.
This just might be because I'm lower on him than I should be. But I think the ranking is fair. In his 2 seasons in the system, he drastically over-performed his xFIP at every point: 1.95 ERA/3.51 xFIP in the Complex League, 1.50 ERA/4.54 xFIP in '22 in Salem, 2.60 ERA/4.09 xFIP in '23 in Salem.
The reason he's had to do it in large part is that the walks are a bit out of control (4.39 bb/9 this season). But he's 6'3, has a fastball that gets up to 95, & throws 4 pitches. So if he could improve his control & stay healthy next year, hopefully starting in Greenville, he could get all the way up to top 10. Or even higher if he can also gain a couple more MPH.
I don't know how likely that is, but the ceiling is there.
I would think Yorke should start next year in AAA, so that would just leave Mayer/Bonaci/Meidroth/Blaze as infield guys who matter. They could mix in a 5th guy. & they should have plenty of room in the OF & they've been playing Campbell out there more. Roman is really their only OF that would need to be out there every day at the moment.
Plus I wouldn't be shocked if Bonaci was gone this off-season one way or another...
#32 Brooks Brannon (SP #34)
Brannon doesn't turn 20 until next May, & he can SMASH the ball. In 25 PAs in Salem he hit 3 homers...that was tied for 7th on the team with, among others Allan Castro (306 PAs).
He also hit 3 for the FCL Sox, which was tied for 2nd, despite his 52 PAs being 13th on the team. He could move way up with a healthy '24, especially if he gets to Greenville.
Or he could get totally exposed over larger sample-sizes, strike out way too much, & not be good enough defensively, which is why the current ranking is still fair.
Brannon doesn't turn 20 until next May, & he can SMASH the ball. In 25 PAs in Salem he hit 3 homers...that was tied for 7th on the team with, among others Allan Castro (306 PAs).
He also hit 3 for the FCL Sox, which was tied for 2nd, despite his 52 PAs being 13th on the team. He could move way up with a healthy '24, especially if he gets to Greenville.
Or he could get totally exposed over larger sample-sizes, strike out way too much, & not be good enough defensively, which is why the current ranking is still fair.
I was looking at this in the main forum, but Noah Dean had one crazy season...
21 games
63 innings
52 hits (.358 BABIP)
72 walks (10.3/9, 23.8%)
86 strikeouts (12.3/9, 28.5%)
6.29 ERA (5.41 xFIP)
If he could somehow find some control in the off season, he could take a big leap from 66 because the stuff clearly plays. Seems kind of not that likely, though.
21 games
63 innings
52 hits (.358 BABIP)
72 walks (10.3/9, 23.8%)
86 strikeouts (12.3/9, 28.5%)
6.29 ERA (5.41 xFIP)
If he could somehow find some control in the off season, he could take a big leap from 66 because the stuff clearly plays. Seems kind of not that likely, though.
Rosier & Double Tylers...
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1704944012421951978
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1704944098996523445
I love that this graphic includes his 4-1 record & not his 8.66 ERA.
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1704944012421951978
View: https://twitter.com/WooSox/status/1704944098996523445
I love that this graphic includes his 4-1 record & not his 8.66 ERA.
World Champion (of the South Atlantic League), Frank German is back in Worcester.
View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1704956031061926320
View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1704956031061926320
| 09/21/23 | Worcester Red Sox transferred RHP Brian Van Belle to the Development List. |
| 09/21/23 | Worcester Red Sox activated RHP Frank German from the 7-day injured list. |
BVB started yesterday & would be done for the season one would assume, so not a particularly surprising corresponding move.
One guy who I could feel silly about having too low right now next season is Justin Riemer (#78). His $500k bonus was the 4th largest in the class, a couple thousand more than Campbell who was drafted the pick before.
Riemer was injured when they drafted him, tearing his ACL 12 games into the college season. He's quite a bit Meidrothy, but with a better name & face, & he's taller.
Riemer's college stats (1st & 2nd year): 233 PAs, 46 walks, 12 strikeouts, .328/.476/.492, .968 OPS
Meidroth's college stats (3rd year): 275 PAs, 40 walks, 25 strikeouts, .329/.440/.544, .984 OPS
They both have fringy arms, but good defensive mechanics, both bat right handed, both weigh 170 lbs, & both were Red Sox 4th round picks in b2b years.
I'm tempted to preemptively move Riemer up 20 spots right now (I think I'm doing one last rankings prior to all the off-season stuff after the last Worcester game).
Riemer was injured when they drafted him, tearing his ACL 12 games into the college season. He's quite a bit Meidrothy, but with a better name & face, & he's taller.
Riemer's college stats (1st & 2nd year): 233 PAs, 46 walks, 12 strikeouts, .328/.476/.492, .968 OPS
Meidroth's college stats (3rd year): 275 PAs, 40 walks, 25 strikeouts, .329/.440/.544, .984 OPS
They both have fringy arms, but good defensive mechanics, both bat right handed, both weigh 170 lbs, & both were Red Sox 4th round picks in b2b years.
I'm tempted to preemptively move Riemer up 20 spots right now (I think I'm doing one last rankings prior to all the off-season stuff after the last Worcester game).
I'm leaving the DSL guys off the potential risers lists because they obviously have the most volatility in terms of future outcomes, good or bad - similar to the 2023 draft picks, but I couldn't help mentioning Riemer because I think I might already be wrong on his placement.