72 Suburbs in Search of a City: Anthony Davis to Los Angeles Lakers

maufman

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Well, that’s how it looked for the Celtics in the Pierce/Garnett trade too. Davis is younger but shit happens. Securing a ton of future draft assets is always good.
I think we all agree that this trade will rise or fall on the value of the picks. That said, this deal is different from the KG/PP trade, where the players coming here were nothing but salary ballast. I’m not bullish on either Ingram or Ball, but both are positive assets.
 

bowiac

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It's funny how much we value potential. No way of knowing but if Ingram were miraculously available for this draft, he'd get picked before #4.

20 year olds are supposed to struggle in the NBA. That doesn't mean they can't end up being top players.
Even ignoring that Ingram's rookie contract is almost up and he's about to get paid, I don't believe Ingram, with three years of suck under his belt, would go higher than #4.

I wouldn't draft him with #14 if available. That doesn't mean he can't be great, but he hasn't shown enough to warrant much hype anymore.
 

BigMike

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It's funny how much we value potential. No way of knowing but if Ingram were miraculously available for this draft, he'd get picked before #4.

20 year olds are supposed to struggle in the NBA. That doesn't mean they can't end up being top players.
I don't think he'd go before 4, but he is only 3 months older than DeAndre Hunter
 

maufman

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That said, I don't see much of a championship contender here. Perhaps the biggest misconception in the NBA is that only your top end guys matter. You can't win with just depth guys, but you pretty much can't win without them either.
I would’ve thought that the Lakers could construct a workable rotation between grabbing a couple players with their cap space (assuming they can’t convince Kemba Walker to accept less than the max to play with LBJ/AD), signing a couple “veteran ring chasers” (not quite sure who that might be), and finding useful roles for a few of their returning players (though beyond Kuzma, I’m not sure who’s potentially useful).

You’ve obviously thought about this more deeply than I have, though. Would love to read your extended thoughts, if you’re so inclined.
 

benhogan

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I know the paints not dry, but would New Orleans care for the 2019 #22 pick for one of those future Laker picks? Hopefully, Griffin feels Danny gave the Lakers enough concern to make them pay up. David owes the C's for playing along!

I agree with those that believe NOLA did a good job here. With Rich Paul guaranteeing that AD was going to free agency/Lakers in 2020, Griffin had little leverage. That future draft haul is massive for 1 season of AD

also, Griffin can go scorched earth for 1-2 seasons (with the idea of having an ascending playoff team 5-6 seasons thereafter):
1. deal Ball for pick #7 or 8
2. deal Jrue for future pick/young controllable player (to a team that loses out in '19 FA)
3. deal E'twaun Moore (not a bad bench piece for a contender that strikes out in '19 FA)
4. let Ingram start the season as the #1 or 2 scoring option w/ the idea of dealing him by Dec'19
5. be a dumping ground for expiring deals plus picks (ala Nets)
6. full tank mode in 2019-20, while the fans get familiar with Zion and kids

They'll have the ability to sign 2 max guys next off-season or thereafter when Zion, youngsters, picks start to ripen.
 
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Captaincoop

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We've seen years of NO futility with Davis, including getting the #1 pick this year, enough to know that there's a decent chance those picks turn into something very valuable.
Davis sat out a third of the season this year. That isn't evidence of anything.

As long as he's playing, those picks aren't going to be high lotto picks, barring injury on top of amazing lottery luck.
 

maufman

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One of the underrated aspects of this deal for NO is that the draft assets they obtained are (I think) fully tradable. So even if you think those future Lakers’ 1sts will be nothing more than a bunch of 20-something picks, you can probably find a GM willing to part with value to take the other side of that bet.
 

jmm57

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So a guy who has missed 18, 15, 14, 21, 7, 7 and 26 games in his age 19-25 seasons is unlikely to miss time with injury in his age 27-31 seasons?

I would be pretty surprised if NO didn’t even up with at least two cracks at the lottery post Bron.
 

InstaFace

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Under contract with the LA Lakers for 2019-20:

Lebron James, $37.4
Anthony Davis, $27.1
Moritz Wagner, $2.1
Kyle Kuzma, $2.0
Isaac Bonga, $1.7
(Luol Deng, $5.0 dead cap)
= $75.3M salary committed.

Off the books as of 7/1 are KCP at $12.0 and Rondo at $9.0, plus Muscala at $5.0 (all last year's salaries). Let's assume they renounce them and the minor FAs and Jones's non-guaranteed salary. The cap is at $109M.

That I believe gives them ~$34M to play with, while Kemba even at a 30% max would only get $32.7. There's probably roster-space cap holds they can't get out of that would reduce this number, but the point is that they can pay him nearly top dollar, assuming a lot of players are willing to come over for minimum salaries.
 

Cellar-Door

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This is a top 5-7 player in the league, in his absolute prime. There is no comparison to be had with a deal involving two guys in their mid thirties.

The #4 pick this year is the best asset New Orleans got in this deal. All but one of the other picks are coming while Davis is still under contract after he signs his extension. Basically, you're hoping for an injury to Davis to make those truly valuable.

To be clear - I highly doubt he was going to do any better than this if the Celtics were bullied out of bidding. But I also doubt we're going to look back in 7 years and be wowed with how that draft haul turned out. It would require the Lakers continuing to be the Knicks West for numerous years when it comes to putting players around Davis. They have two mega stars for this year, it's hard to screw that up in this league to the point that you're missing the playoffs.
Davis is really good, but a lot can happen in even 4 years, especially to an injury prone player and particularly bigs, who often lose it fast.

Just looking back, there was another dominant big, more dominant than AD, a staple in the 1st team All-NBA and often a top 5 MVP vote getter through his mid 20s.... Dwight Howard., he was essentially done as a star player before age 30. Melo was a staple of the All-NBA teams, he was in a big market.... he was on some of the worst teams in the league as he transitioned into his 30s, Yao Ming broke his foot, done at 28, Paul Pierce in the dead center of his prime was on 2 teams that got high lottery picks, I'm sure there are more examples. Generally, the point is that 1 great player doesn't often mean much in terms of team success, and that's before really getting into injury possibilities.



I know the paints not dry, but would New Orleans care for the 2019 #22 pick for one of those future Laker picks? Hopefully, Griffin feels Danny gave the Lakers enough concern to make them pay up. David owes the C's for playing along!

I agree with those that believe NOLA did a good job here. With Rich Paul guaranteeing that AD was going to free agency/Lakers in 2020, Griffin had little leverage. That future draft haul is massive for 1 season of AD

also, Griffin can go scorched earth for 1-2 seasons (with the idea of having an ascending playoff team 5-6 seasons thereafter):
1. deal Ball for pick #7 or 8
2. deal Jrue for future pick/young controllable player (to a team that loses out in '19 FA)
3. deal E'twaun Moore (not a bad bench piece for a contender that strikes out in '19 FA)
4. let Ingram start the season as the #1 or 2 scoring option w/ the idea of dealing him by Dec'19
4. be a dumping ground for expiring deals plus picks (ala Nets)
5. full tank mode in 2019-20, while the fans get familiar with Zion and kids

They'll have the ability to sign 2 max guys next off-season or thereafter when Zion, youngsters, picks start to ripen.
There is zero chance they trade a future unprotected for 22, c'mon man, they probably wouldn't trade it for 5, in fact word is they are getting out of the #4.

1. I think they should trade Ball, but not sure they trade back into this draft given most people see it as flat and weak,
2. I bet that they keep him, they really like him, and having a good vet, and particularly a good PG can be really valuable in developing a star like Zion.
3. Depends on what they think the timeline is, maybe they hold him to see what Zion looks like, since they'll need shooting and he provides that
4. Not sure this works, if he plays well, why not sign him? He fits the timeline great, if he's not good, who would trade for him?
4 v.2- Strong agree
5. I think they should play the young guys, but given the flat lottery odds, no need to do anything crazy, just get guys reps and build good habits
 

nattysez

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Not sure how anyone can assume that Pelinka is capable of putting together a good squad around AD and LBJ. Bob Myers is a pretty good GM and even he couldn't put together a solid bench this year with de minimis cap room.

There are also a lot of assumptions in this thread that AD will sign a long-term deal with LA. Why wouldn't he do one-year-with-an-option deals like KD given all the LA tumult?

Long story short, A LOT has to go right for LAL for them not to regret losing all these picks.
 

Captaincoop

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We'll see what happens. It's certainly possible AD gets hurt at some point. But he's also not Yao Ming or Paul Pierce. This is a top-level, elite superstar who is now paired with Lebron. The Lakers aren't missing the playoffs if they're healthy the next 2-3 years at least.
 

Cellar-Door

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We'll see what happens. It's certainly possible AD gets hurt at some point. But he's also not Yao Ming or Paul Pierce. This is a top-level, elite superstar who is now paired with Lebron. The Lakers aren't missing the playoffs if they're healthy the next 2-3 years at least.
Sure... which is why the picks are all 4-6 years down the line, when LeBron will be retired. Though why you say he's not Ming is weird, Yao Ming was legitimately dominant, he just destroyed his foot. Injuries happen too (KD is the best player in the league, he's going to miss next year), quite often, and All-NBA level guys can easily end up on bad teams even without them. Unprotected picks many years out are rarely traded exactly because everyone in the league knows that it's incredibly difficult to project performance that far out.

Arguably the best player in the history of the game just put up
55 35.2 .510 .339 .665 8.5 8.3 1.3 .6 27.4


and his team got a high lottery pick.
 

Euclis20

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Yeah, they're fine for the next 3 years. Beyond that, Davis plus whatever else they can get is no guarantee of the playoffs, let alone a title shot. Through injuries and bad management (neither of which is likely to improve much in the coming years) he's made the playoffs just once in the last 4 seasons, and twice in his entire career.
 

lexrageorge

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Under contract with the LA Lakers for 2019-20:

Lebron James, $37.4
Anthony Davis, $27.1
Moritz Wagner, $2.1
Kyle Kuzma, $2.0
Isaac Bonga, $1.7
(Luol Deng, $5.0 dead cap)
= $75.3M salary committed.

Off the books as of 7/1 are KCP at $12.0 and Rondo at $9.0, plus Muscala at $5.0 (all last year's salaries). Let's assume they renounce them and the minor FAs and Jones's non-guaranteed salary. The cap is at $109M.

That I believe gives them ~$34M to play with, while Kemba even at a 30% max would only get $32.7. There's probably roster-space cap holds they can't get out of that would reduce this number, but the point is that they can pay him nearly top dollar, assuming a lot of players are willing to come over for minimum salaries.
As that is only 5 players under contract, they would be subject to an incomplete roster charge for 7 players, which would take about $6.3M off that $34M. They could offer Kemba ~$28.5M, which he may or may not take. And they would then be limited to vet minimum salaries for the rest of their roster.

It's an interesting question as to what would be the best use of their cap space here. May be better to spread money around and create a less top heavy roster.
 

benhogan

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There is zero chance they trade a future unprotected for 22, c'mon man, they probably wouldn't trade it for 5, in fact word is they are getting out of the #4.

1. I think they should trade Ball, but not sure they trade back into this draft given most people see it as flat and weak,
2. I bet that they keep him, they really like him, and having a good vet, and particularly a good PG can be really valuable in developing a star like Zion.
3. Depends on what they think the timeline is, maybe they hold him to see what Zion looks like, since they'll need shooting and he provides that
4. Not sure this works, if he plays well, why not sign him? He fits the timeline great, if he's not good, who would trade for him?
4 v.2- Strong agree
5. I think they should play the young guys, but given the flat lottery odds, no need to do anything crazy, just get guys reps and build good habits
Yea, I was kind of joking that Griffin owed Danny and would move his shiny, new Laker picks...

1. Agreed Family Ball circus isn't great for a young/developing squad. Get young, cheap assets while you can, before LaVar goes toxic on the Pelicans franchise. 2019 #7/8 have been rumored.
2. Griffin didn't sign Jrue, so he won't be completely gaga over him. Jrue is an excellent player at his peak age (29). When teams strikeout in FA his value will be high. Not sure Jrue's timeline fits with team. The more cap space the Pels have over the next 2 seasons, the more assets they can gather.
3. Moore has 1yr left and I'm assuming Griffin's expectations are low this season. As we've seen, young players want NBA minutes, why hand them to Moore? If I'm Griffin I'd rather give those minutes to a late 1st round pick like Kevin Porter, Bol Bol or Herro.
4. Ingram will want to get paid next offseason. I see more fluff than substance here. Making him a top 2 offensive option could inflate his numbers/value. Griffin can decide in the middle of this season when contenders will be most interested in a 2020 restricted FA Brandon Ingram

For the Pelicans, it's about moving players at their peak value over the next 18 months, while selling the fanbase on the not too distant future.
 
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Cellar-Door

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As that is only 5 players under contract, they would be subject to an incomplete roster charge for 7 players, which would take about $6.3M off that $34M. They could offer Kemba ~$28.5M, which he may or may not take. And they would then be limited to vet minimum salaries for the rest of their roster.

It's an interesting question as to what would be the best use of their cap space here. May be better to spread money around and create a less top heavy roster.
https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1140281166873997313

So basically, since they aren't delaying the trade, it's either 23.7M or 27.7M depending on whether Davis waives his trade bonus, Some had thought they would delay the trade by signing the #4 then trading him 30 days after that date, I think that would have gotten the Lakers to 31-32M, but clearly the Pelicans said no, probably to get #4 on their summer league roster
 

Devizier

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The comparisons to the KG/Pierce trade are off for any number of reasons, but probably most importantly that the KG/Pierce outcome was itself a bizarre anomaly.
Certainly true, and at the time a lot of people were unhappy with the deal. But when your prospective outcomes are known (and not in a good way) your best play is to mitigate the damage. And getting an upside play like the Pelicans did is about your best possible outcome. They’re basically taking insurance against LeBron and that’s not actually terrible given his age and recent injury concerns.

Like you, I’m not terribly high on Ingram but he isn’t detritus like Kris Humphries and obviously Lonzo Ball has substantial upside, even if he comes with massive caveats.

What’s interesting to me is that this deal was framed in the “Celtics didn’t want to trade Tatum” narrative, which is interesting because like a lot of folks around here, I’m a lot less high on him than I was last year. It makes me wonder what (if) NBA scouts are picking up from him that we are not.
 

Jimbodandy

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Certainly true, and at the time a lot of people were unhappy with the deal. But when your prospective outcomes are known (and not in a good way) your best play is to mitigate the damage. And getting an upside play like the Pelicans did is about your best possible outcome. They’re basically taking insurance against LeBron and that’s not actually terrible given his age and recent injury concerns.

Like you, I’m not terribly high on Ingram but he isn’t detritus like Kris Humphries and obviously Lonzo Ball has substantial upside, even if he comes with massive caveats.

What’s interesting to me is that this deal was framed in the “Celtics didn’t want to trade Tatum” narrative, which is interesting because like a lot of folks around here, I’m a lot less high on him than I was last year. It makes me wonder what (if) NBA scouts are picking up from him that we are not.
NBA scouts are looking at him actually playing basketball at both ends and watching and looking at numbers that matter.
 

Cellar-Door

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Certainly true, and at the time a lot of people were unhappy with the deal. But when your prospective outcomes are known (and not in a good way) your best play is to mitigate the damage. And getting an upside play like the Pelicans did is about your best possible outcome. They’re basically taking insurance against LeBron and that’s not actually terrible given his age and recent injury concerns.

Like you, I’m not terribly high on Ingram but he isn’t detritus like Kris Humphries and obviously Lonzo Ball has substantial upside, even if he comes with massive caveats.

What’s interesting to me is that this deal was framed in the “Celtics didn’t want to trade Tatum” narrative, which is interesting because like a lot of folks around here, I’m a lot less high on him than I was last year. It makes me wonder what (if) NBA scouts are picking up from him that we are not.
I think people are reading way too far into a "down" year this year, it came with a very weird team situation, and even then, it was actually a really good year for a 20 year old sophmore.

If you look at guys who shoot like him on decent volume (150 3PA @ 37% or better, 100 FTA at 75% or better) at that age, it's a short list of seasons, the only people on it twice are Kyrie, Tatum and Beal. The only person on the list who is over 6'5" is Kevin Durant. In fact the most comparable 20 and under season to Tatum's 2 seasons is probably Durant.

Honestly across the board outside of usage, Tatum compares quite well to Durant's first 2 years. So, it's no surprise people see him as a potential major star, he's got good size, he's a pretty good defender, and his offensive skill set is excellent. He needs more shots and better shot selection, but the tools are there and play at the NBA level.
 

ifmanis5

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This trade was conceived by, engineered by and forced to completion to placate one person, LeBron James. The Lakers could have done nothing and get AD essentially for free at the end of the season but of course that's not what LeBron wanted since his career-clock is ticking. The trade market for AD could have been more competitive but LeBron's management made it clear to other teams that AD would only be going one place. I hope the networks load up on Lakers games only for the two stars to be injured all the time and casual viewers get a steady dose of Alex Caruso.
 

Jimbodandy

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Uh.... gee, thanks for the insight?
Scouts are doing what scouts do.

What scouts see is that the list of guys with Tatum's overall resume at his age is basically current and future Hall of Famers, when you factor in all of the numbers. The case has been laid out on this very board ad infinitum.

Just because the blogosphere likes volume scorers and Tatum doesn't meet that one criterion doesn't mean that there's a mystery to his value.
 
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Cellar-Door

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This trade was conceived by, engineered by and forced to completion to placate one person, LeBron James. The Lakers could have done nothing and get AD essentially for free at the end of the season but of course that's not what LeBron wanted since his career-clock is ticking. The trade market for AD could have been more competitive but LeBron's management made it clear to other teams that AD would only be going one place. I hope the networks load up on Lakers games only for the two stars to be injured all the time and casual viewers get a steady dose of Alex Caruso.
The Lakers weren't tanking 2 full seasons to sign AD. Also... PG13 was more adamant that he was going home to LA, and he changed his mind. If you sign LeBron James this is exactly what you should be doing, trying to trade for the best possible 2nd star to make one last 3 year run with the best to ever play.
 

ifmanis5

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Update on the cap and details from Woj:
Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account @wojespn 4m4 minutes ago
For now, expectation is Anthony Davis trade will be completed on July 6, league sources tell @BobbyMarks42 and me. Assuming Davis declines to void $4M trade bonus, this leaves Lakers with $23.7M in space. There is chance that could be amended to July 30, but it’s still 6th now.
 

Cellar-Door

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Update on the cap and details from Woj:
Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account @wojespn 4m4 minutes ago
For now, expectation is Anthony Davis trade will be completed on July 6, league sources tell @BobbyMarks42 and me. Assuming Davis declines to void $4M trade bonus, this leaves Lakers with $23.7M in space. There is chance that could be amended to July 30, but it’s still 6th now.
Griffin squeezing something else out of Pelinka to move the trade back because Pelinka was dumb enough not to insist on the 7/30 date from the jump would be delicious.
 

Imbricus

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I looked at five "grade the trade" articles on different websites. Four gave the Pelicans the higher grade on this trade. That sounds about right to me. Davis is a major talent, but the Lakers gave up a lot, and who knows how Ball and Ingram will develop -- they're both young enough to still be in college.
 

ifmanis5

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Adding:
Adrian WojnarowskiVerified account @wojespn
If Pelicans and Lakers waited until July 30 to complete trade, Lakers could’ve had $32.5M in cap space --- enough to pursue a max level free agent. By waiting 30 days, Lakers would be acting like a team over the cap and thus allowed to use 4th overall pick in draft as salary.

In other words, the Pels forced the trade to happen now to make sure they got the #4 pick which also forced the Lakers to forego lots of cap space. That is a true Woj bomb.
 

mcpickl

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Yeah, they're fine for the next 3 years. Beyond that, Davis plus whatever else they can get is no guarantee of the playoffs, let alone a title shot. Through injuries and bad management (neither of which is likely to improve much in the coming years) he's made the playoffs just once in the last 4 seasons, and twice in his entire career.
To add to this, AD will need a lot of help to make those future picks not hurt LA. The unprotected picks will come in Lebrons final season of his deal at age 37, then two more in the following three years when Lebron is either 38+ or not on the roster.

The 7 years AD was in New Orleans, their pick fell inside the top 10 five times.
 

Cellar-Door

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Couple people on twitter with LA connections saying that there is a handshake deal that they will delay it if the Lakers have a deal in place for a Max free agent before 7/6. Makes sense. Basically... if you have a deal we'll wait, but we won't wait if you don't have something concrete in hand.
 
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I'm a little surprised by the folks who think the Pelicans got a bag of nickels for a dollar. These Lakers picks have the potential to be tremendous assets down the line.

If the past few years have taught us anything, it's that the Lakers leadership has no f'ing clue of how to run a franchise. Would anyone be surprised if a story came out about the basketball ops dept. not knowing anything about the details of this trade? I wouldn't. Linda and Kurt Rambis are making vital decisions about the future of this team. Billy King is Jerry West compared to them.

There's a nuclear scenario here where the team underperforms out of the gate, LeBron insists on Vogel getting fired after 20 games (just like he did with Spo in Miami), and instead of ownership having a spine and telling him to suck it up, they'll cave and put Jason Kidd in charge. This is not only in play, I would say it's more than likely to happen! If this team is a bottom-half playoff team or if they miss the playoffs entirely due to an AD or LeBron injury, who's to say that AD doesn't leave the team? There's a better run LA franchise waiting for him across the hall and possibly a half-dozen teams with max level cap space next summer. I don't think it's a given that he stays with the Lakers past this year.

And what are their avenues for adding to this core? With $25 mill in cap space, they're probably not getting a max level free agent from a talent perspective. Kemba hasn't had the "big payday" yet - he's going to turn down $100 million+ from Charlotte to get yelled at by Lebron? Same with Butler, who's already on arguably a better team than the Lakers. I could see them ending up with point Rozier and another year of KCP at the 2. Does last year's Laker free agent class give anyone confidence they'll fill in the gaps with quality role players? I'm not encouraged.

Yeah, they'll probably be in contention this year because LeBron and AD are incredible players, but this has potential to go sideways really fast with the lack of leadership involved. Rich Paul could yank LeBron and AD out of there after one disappointing season.

For Celtics fans, I think the takeaway is that the Lakers were so desperate that Ainge never had enough to compete. Adding Tatum wouldn't get this deal done. This was like bidding at against Nick Cage at an auction - you're never going to beat insanity. Griffin did really well.
 

Euclis20

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I'm a little surprised by the folks who think the Pelicans got a bag of nickels for a dollar. These Lakers picks have the potential to be tremendous assets down the line.
Agreed. Those picks are nickels if they end up late first round, but given circumstances already discussed it's likely that there are a few quarters, and with some luck maybe even a silver dollar or two. LeBron will be in his late 30s soon enough and Davis injury history makes nothing a guarantee. This Lakers team just got back to back to back 2nd overall picks. These things happen.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I was one of the biggest haters in his draft year, but one of my current hotter takes is that I think Lonzo is going to be really good, and maybe great. He is a ball movement savant. Great size, good rebounder, and a pretty savvy (if unathletic) defender. The Lebron offense wasn’t great for him. The total inability to get to the line/hit free throws is an impediment but if his deep shooting floor is the 30% he shot as a rookie, I think he’ll ultimately be fine. Someone you include in a superstar trade? A thousand times yes, but I’m not ashamed to say I like him. More than Ingram at least, who is a huge ball-stopper.

Dad needs to chill, obviously.
 

nighthob

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LeBron will be gone by the the time the bulk of the picks arrive (and may already finished be as a top player), but in 2025, AD will still be five years younger than KG was when he was traded, and the Lakers mostly have a clean cap going forward. They may not be contenders, but it will take a series of catastrophic mistakes for them to end up picking at the top of the draft. .
Allow me to introduce you to the Buss family...

It's funny how much we value potential. No way of knowing but if Ingram were miraculously available for this draft, he'd get picked before #4.
I might not take him before DeAndre Hunter much less Morant or Barrett. Barrett might be the closest to Ingram in terms of game, but he’s more athletic and actually tries on the defensive end.

What’s interesting to me is that this deal was framed in the “Celtics didn’t want to trade Tatum” narrative, which is interesting because like a lot of folks around here, I’m a lot less high on him than I was last year. It makes me wonder what (if) NBA scouts are picking up from him that we are not.
In addition to the points that Cellar Door made above I’ll just add this. After his rookie year teams made a point of forcing Tatum to shoot pull-ups this year, which is a current weakness in his game. He’s clearly not comfortable shooting them 23+ feet yet, so when teams ran him at the line he started stepping in to a range he was comfortable shooting pull ups at. Most scouts probably see that his mechanics are fine, though, and that he’ll improve at shooting off the bounce.

The second problem is that he still doesn’t get enough respect from the refs and teams found that when Tatum does drive you can just block him rather than the shot (witness the number of Buck defenders that “blocked shots” without ever touching the ball in the playoffs). And due to his lack of present bulk he struggles finishing through that contact. But that’s also something he can improve. His frame looks like it can easily carry 235-240. So if you’re a scout evaluating future potential there’s a good chance that in 2-4 years time he’s effectively finishing through contact and racking up free throws for you.

This trade was conceived by, engineered by and forced to completion to placate one person, LeBron James. The Lakers could have done nothing and get AD essentially for free at the end of the season but of course that's not what LeBron wanted since his career-clock is ticking. The trade market for AD could have been more competitive but LeBron's management made it clear to other teams that AD would only be going one place. I hope the networks load up on Lakers games only for the two stars to be injured all the time and casual viewers get a steady dose of Alex Caruso.
From LA’s standpoint the problem is that if you don’t add Davis when his agent is rolling out the red carpet for you then LeBron can go full frontal Kawhi on you, and then you’ve finished yourselves as a free agent destination. The Celtics experienced this in the Dark Days of the Thanks, Dad!!!™ regime.

When your management is a nationwide joke superstars are unlikely to put full faith in you. Other NBA superstars might not like LeBron, but they’d still take notice of Laker management if the management screwed him after everything that he’s done for them.
 

scottyno

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Members of the media tend to report without context. Is it true that the LAL/Pels trade is expected to be completed on July 6? Yes, but ONLY if the Lakers are NOT able to get a commitment from a max FA. Simply put, the trade completion date won’t prevent LAL from signing a max FA
why would the pels give up on the chance to either trade the #4 pick or draft and get him into summer league to let the lakers get a 3rd max guy and hurt their draft picks?
 

djbayko

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The Pels will likely end up with:

The #4 in this year's draft
Unprotected Laker Pick in 2022 (LeBron is 37)
Pick Swap in 2023 (Lebron is 38, Davis is...gone?)
Unprotected Laker Pick in 2024 (LeBron is 39)
Pick Swap in 2025 (Lebron is 40!)

They got all that for a guy who was going to leave anyway. Kudos to Griffith.
According to the trade correction which came out later last night, the 2025 pick swap doesn’t exist. Instead, they have the right to defer the unprotected ‘24 pick to ‘25.

 

BaseballJones

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I was one of the biggest haters in his draft year, but one of my current hotter takes is that I think Lonzo is going to be really good, and maybe great. He is a ball movement savant. Great size, good rebounder, and a pretty savvy (if unathletic) defender. The Lebron offense wasn’t great for him. The total inability to get to the line/hit free throws is an impediment but if his deep shooting floor is the 30% he shot as a rookie, I think he’ll ultimately be fine. Someone you include in a superstar trade? A thousand times yes, but I’m not ashamed to say I like him. More than Ingram at least, who is a huge ball-stopper.

Dad needs to chill, obviously.
I agree with your take here. When I watched him in college, I saw an incredibly talented passer in every way. Good size. Adequate defender. If he develops into even a mediocre shooter, he's going to be a phenomenal player. Agree also on his dad. I'd love to have Ball on the Celtics but pop makes that idea intolerable.
 

djbayko

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why would the pels give up on the chance to either trade the #4 pick or draft and get him into summer league to let the lakers get a 3rd max guy and hurt their draft picks?
I think the implication is they agreed to this stipulation as part of the deal. who knows whether that’s accurate or not.
 

Devizier

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After his rookie year teams made a point of forcing Tatum to shoot pull-ups this year, which is a current weakness in his game. He’s clearly not comfortable shooting them 23+ feet yet, so when teams ran him at the line he started stepping in to a range he was comfortable shooting pull ups at. Most scouts probably see that his mechanics are fine, though, and that he’ll improve at shooting off the bounce.

The second problem is that he still doesn’t get enough respect from the refs and teams found that when Tatum does drive you can just block him rather than the shot (witness the number of Buck defenders that “blocked shots” without ever touching the ball in the playoffs). And due to his lack of present bulk he struggles finishing through that contact. But that’s also something he can improve. His frame looks like it can easily carry 235-240. So if you’re a scout evaluating future potential there’s a good chance that in 2-4 years time he’s effectively finishing through contact and racking up free throws for you.
The step-in jumper and the physique were concerning signs for me this year, and I agree that Tatum should be able to improve on those. I hope being able to finish in traffic comes with increased strength. I would like him to take defenders off the dribble more but maybe that's not his game. I don't see the quick release that would make him a deadly shooter so I don't think we can ever expect a Klay Thompson (for example) outcome.
 

snowmanny

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If Tatum fills out and learns how to finish in traffic he will be awesome. A year ago I was saying "when" not "if."
 

TripleOT

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If Kyrie leaves, what about Ball as the Celtics PG instead of Rozier? What's Ball worth in draft picks?

Would Memphis trade the 2 for the 4, if a couple of the Lakers picks came in the deal, or the Pels' 202 first round pick? Instead of Morant, Memphis could go with Coby White or Darius Garland, and the Pels could re-unite Zion and Morant for a 21st century Stockton/Malone pairing.

Would NO have the Celtics draft a wing for them at 14, and pick a PG at 4, and move Ball to the Celtics for the 14 and a pick (and salary ballast)?
 

nighthob

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The step-in jumper and the physique were concerning signs for me this year, and I agree that Tatum should be able to improve on those. I hope being able to finish in traffic comes with increased strength. I would like him to take defenders off the dribble more but maybe that's not his game. I don't see the quick release that would make him a deadly shooter so I don't think we can ever expect a Klay Thompson (for example) outcome.
I don’t think any of us were looking for a Klay Thompson outcome for Tatum. The guy I always used as a ceiling comp for Tatum was Pierce, and that’s still the best case scenario for him given that Tatum will only be seven months older than Pierce was as a rookie next year.
 

Tony C

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Apr 13, 2000
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Man, I knew the Lakers would Billy King it but this is next level
If you were GM of the Celtics would you have traded Jaylen, Smart, Timelord, the Memphis pick and 14, 20 and 22 this year, because I’d argue the Lakers gave up more than that for AD. Griffin absolutely killed it in this deal.
[/QUOTE]
Well, that’s how it looked for the Celtics in the Pierce/Garnett trade too. Davis is younger but shit happens. Securing a ton of future draft assets is always good.
I think we all agree that this trade will rise or fall on the value of the picks. That said, this deal is different from the KG/PP trade, where the players coming here were nothing but salary ballast. I’m not bullish on either Ingram or Ball, but both are positive assets.
The Billy King comparisons are absurd hot takes. Anthony Davis at 26 vs on their last legs KG and PP -- which of these have nothing to do with the other? Particularly when you're pairing AD with LeBron.

Among the many, many other hot takes in this thread that has me puzzled is that the picks are what makes it a good deal for the Pels. Sure...we don't know, but very very good chance those are mainly late picks. All the wishcasting about AD injuries/LeBron decline/no one else every signing with the Lakers is just...well...wishcasting. But Ingram and Ball are really valuable pieces. On Ingram, there's ton of assertions that he doesn't try on defense which can only come from people who don't watch him play. He's got one of those facial expressions that doesn't scream "white guy overachiever" but he's a hard worker with amazing wing span and good feet. I know it's just a month or so, but he was killing it before he went out with this blood clot thing -- the idea he wouldn't go at #4 this year is ridiculous. I'd probably take him #2 and just no way I'd value Hunter over him. And Ball is...well...we all know what he is: he's an elite passer and defender which make him very valuable. God knows what happened to his college shot and his FT shooting makes one think maybe it'll never come around. But if it does -- he moves beyond very valuable to all-star. Those are the 2 prizes for the Pels along with the #4 (Garland? Would love his combo with Zion, Ball, and Ingram). The other picks are what they are.

For all the celebrating in this and other threads, this is a classic win-win trade. Celtics the big losers in re never converting their assets into championship winning studs. Good not great is not where you want to be in this league.
 

Jimbodandy

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The Billy King takes are not hot takes. People are talking about what King gave up--Craploads of unprotected picks far enough in the future that nobody has any idea how high they will be. That alone makes the picks immensely valuable for trades or hoarding.

All of the talk about the Lakers young guys was nice and all, but it took a Billy King pick bonanza to close the deal for a guy who only wanted to play for them. Without massive quantities of picks, the deal was rejected at the deadline.
 

Tony C

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Apr 13, 2000
10,993
The Lakers are being talked about as an odds-on-favorite for a title next year. As with others, I might take Denver and certainly the field over them, but that's not just Las Vegas it's all the so-called experts who believe this trade puts the Lakers at least among a top tier of title contenders. How is that in anyway comparable to where that trade put Billy King's Nets? That trade was immediately seen as a boon for the Celtics and no one ever thought of the Nets as serious title contenders and even at the most optimistic it was obvious there was a very short window. That the Nets' picks turned out to be very valuable was not a surprise at all. It will be a surprise if that's the case with the Lakers' picks. Anything can happen..but unlikely.
 
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