53-Man Roster Predictions / Cut Watch Thread

[Shelterdog]

Hard to say where they could have reallocated resources, the DE's in free agency weren't cheap. 2nd round pick would probably be the best argument, but not sure how much it would have helped this year.

 
The other day I looked at the rookie sacks by the NFL's top ten 2014 leaders in sacks and if memory serves Allen had 9, Chandler Jones 6, and nobody else more than 5.  For some reason only the rarest of pass rushers can become a pass rushing force as a rookie.  Hopefully Bequette and/or Buchannan have figured out enough that they can be helpful back-ups this year.

 

[Super Nomario]

Reiss' new projections:
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4765446/new-england-patriots-projected-roster-3
 
He has a whopping 10 DL on the squad, and just 8 DBs (until Browner gets back from suspension). I don't think they carry 5 DT and 5 DE. He has Wendell gone but Connolly making it. He has Tavon Wilson on with Chung and Jemea Thomas off. 

Loyko's are similar: http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/08/2014-patriots-roster-projection-2-0.html
 
He's got Finch over Bolden, the same OL (Connolly making it, Wendell cut), the same 10 DL, Chung and Thomas making it over Tavon Wilson and Chris White.

 

[Super Nomario]

Sorry guys: http://patspicker.patsfans.com/

 

[Pxer]

This is my latest iteration. HT to SN for the ease in creating this:
 
QB (3) Brady, Mallett, Garoppolo
RB (5) Vereen, White, Ridley, Houston, Develin
WR (7) Edelman, Amendola, Thompkins, LaFell, Boyce, Dobson, Slater
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C  (1) Stork
G  (4) Mankins, Connolly, Kline, Halapio
T  (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (3) Jones, Ninkovich, Smith
DT (6) Wilfork, Kelly, Siliga, Easley, Jones, Vellano
ILB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Collins, Anderson, White
CB (5) Revis, Browner, Dennard, Ryan, Arrington
SS (3) Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
FS (2) McCourty, Chung
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Ott
Total players: 54 (53 + Browner)
 
Notable: No Wendell, No Moore, 2 TE, Chung & Wilson both make the cut, Ott displaces Aiken.

 

[Stitch01]

My guess heading into preseason game number 1 (left Browner off for the purposes of this but obviously he makes the team)

QB (3) Mallett, Garoppolo, Brady
RB (5) Ridley, Develin, Finch, White, Vereen
WR (7) Edelman, Dobson, Boyce, Thompkins, Slater, LaFell, Amendola
TE (3) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui, Williams
C (2) Wendell, Stork
G (3) Mankins, Kline, Connolly
T (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Moore, Bequette, Ninkovich
DT (5) Wilfork, Kelly, Siliga, Jones, Easley
ILB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(2) Collins, Anderson
CB (5) Revis, Ryan, Arrington, Green, Dennard
SS (3) Harmon, Wilson, Ebner
FS (1) McCourty
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Ott

Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patspicker.patsfans.com

 

[ShaneTrot]

QB (3) Mallett, Garoppolo, Brady
RB (5) Ridley, White, Bolden, Develin, Vereen
WR (7) Edelman, Amendola, Dobson, Boyce, Thompkins, LaFell, Slater
TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
C  (2) Wendell, Stork
G  (4) Mankins, Connolly, Halapio, Kline
T  (4) Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, Fleming
DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Smith
DT (4) Wilfork, Kelly, Siliga, Easley
ILB(3) Mayo, Hightower, Beauharnais
OLB(3) Collins, Fleming, Anderson
CB (5) Revis, Browner, Ryan, Arrington, Dennard
SS (2) Harmon, Wilson
FS (2) McCourty, Chung
ST (3) Gostkowski, Allen, Aiken
 
Total players: 53
Created with Pats Picker: http://patspicker.patsfans.com
 
I like Buchanan, here I am guessing they try to get Moore to the practice squad. Wendell is cheap and he is tough. The corners are really stacked. Wilson and Chung get by because of special teams. Fleming makes it because he has more promise than any of the other LBs.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Can we put a moratorium on posting individual output from that tool?  It's a fun tool to play with and really forces some tough decisions.  Conversation about the choices and hard decisions that the team will face would be interesting.  But the good stuff will get buried by a barrage of people posting their relatively meaningless roster projections. 

 

[tims4wins]

The problem with the roster tool is that it doesn't account for a few things, namely Browner's suspension and the PUP. The Pats effectively get a 54 man roster for the first 4 games until Browner returns. And as of right now, Dobson does not look like he will be ready for the opener. So right now if I were to make the 53 man projection using that tool I would "cut" Browner and Dobson. Of course, by the time they return, I am sure there will be some injuries. And BB is also highly likely to tweak the back end of the roster week to week based on upcoming opponent.

 

[Klostrophobic]

Could Matt Slater be a cut-candidate? They save 1.6 million by cutting him if they can replace his ST contributions with a rookie.

 

[Dogman]

No chance of that. None. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Could Matt Slater be a cut-candidate? They save 1.6 million by cutting him if they can replace his ST contributions with a rookie.

No way.  Slater is not going anywhere.  He's the best special teamer in the NFL.

 

[Stitch01]

I wouldn't say zero chance, but seems unlikely. Im a little surprised he hasn't been extended yet, but maybe there's a cap reason behind that.

 

[Reverend]

No way.  Slater is not going anywhere.  He's the best special teamer in the NFL.

 
It might be a fun thread for another forum (P&G?) but does Slater have the whackiest role in professional sports?
 
I mean, he's getting paid a million and a half dollars to, for five months of the year, once a week, run down the field a dozen times like an overly hyped-up extra in Braveheart? That's weird. It's awesome. But it's weird.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I wouldn't say zero chance, but seems unlikely. Im a little surprised he hasn't been extended yet, but maybe there's a cap reason behind that.

It's a zero chance.  Belichick absolutely loves the guy.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Could Matt Slater be a cut-candidate? They save 1.6 million by cutting him if they can replace his ST contributions with a rookie.

 
Say wut?
 

 

[Klostrophobic]

Fair enough. Seems a waste to have a guy who just does ST for that much money (and he's FA after this season to boot). But I guess if his leadership qualities are quality, it's worth it.

That, and the inability to bring in a kicker to compete with Ghost and his contract are puzzling to me.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Fair enough. Seems a waste to have a guy who just does ST for that much money (and he's FA after this season to boot). But I guess if his leadership qualities are quality, it's worth it.

That, and the inability to bring in a kicker to compete with Ghost and his contract are puzzling to me.

Special teams is very important to Belichick.  Having two players who are the best or among the best at their positions are important to him and should be important to any team. 

 

[Klostrophobic]

That's great, but they brought a punter in last year to compete with Mesko so why not bring in a kicker this camp? I'm not smart enough to evaluate ST players and really question whether anyone outside of the game (who  can see what happens in practice, behind the scenes, etc.) can really evaluate what a guy like Slater does relative to an incoming rookie free agent. Why is everyone so 100% confident Slater is great? Not really questioning that he is or isn't, but why the confidence?

 

[Super Nomario]

Could Matt Slater be a cut-candidate? They save 1.6 million by cutting him if they can replace his ST contributions with a rookie.

A minorish point - they wouldn't have $1.6 MM. They'd save a little less than $1.2 MM, because they'd still have to pay the rookie.
 

That's great, but they brought a punter in last year to compete with Mesko so why not bring in a kicker this camp?

I thought they'd bring in another kicker, too, but there's no comparing these guys as players. Mesko was a below-average punter. That's why he's currently a free agent, having been cut three times in the last calendar year. Gostkowski is one of the better kickers in the NFL.
 

I'm not smart enough to evaluate ST players and really question whether anyone outside of the game (who  can see what happens in practice, behind the scenes, etc.) can really evaluate what a guy like Slater does relative to an incoming rookie free agent. Why is everyone so 100% confident Slater is great? Not really questioning that he is or isn't, but why the confidence?

He's a three-time Pro Bowler. That may or may not accurately reflect his skill level, but certainly Belichick seems to think it does, and it reflects that his peers view him as one of the best at what he does. Another important point is that it's not Slater or a rookie - it's both. There were 11 players on the Patriots last year who played more STs than offense/defense and at least 100 ST snaps (Collins, White, Ebner, Fletcher, Slater, Wilson, Cole, Buchanan, Gostkowski, Aiken, Allen). That's pretty much par for the course. Undoubtedly some of the new rookies will play extensive ST roles, and like in any unit it's important to have veteran leaders to complement the young players.

 

[Super Nomario]

One thought: I'm pretty sure Tyler Gaffney has to make the initial 53-man roster to go on IR, unless the Pats want to take a chance of him passing through waivers (which is how they got him in the first place). So there's a pretty good chance they cut someone like Daxton Swanson (or insert your favorite end-of-the-roster option) in final cutdowns, put Gaffney on the 53-man, IR him, then pick Swanson back up. This could apply to someone like Siliga or Stork depending on how severe their injuries are, too.
 
EDIT: Pretty sure you guys are right and I'm wrong here.

 

[lexrageorge]

One thought: I'm pretty sure Tyler Gaffney has to make the initial 53-man roster to go on IR, unless the Pats want to take a chance of him passing through waivers (which is how they got him in the first place). So there's a pretty good chance they cut someone like Daxton Swanson (or insert your favorite end-of-the-roster option) in final cutdowns, put Gaffney on the 53-man, IR him, then pick Swanson back up. This could apply to someone like Siliga or Stork depending on how severe their injuries are, too.

I cannot comment about Gaffney's situation, but teams put players on IR during the roster cutdown days all the time without the risk of losing them to waivers.  If there's a rule that a player has to be on the final 53-man roster to avoid waivers, that's definitely new.  

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

There was a lot of talk about this in the training camp thread after the Gaffney situation.  I don't think the exact rule was quoted, but the consensus seems to be that at some point in the preseason you can put players directly to IR without them going through waivers.  My guess is it's after the first round of cuts.  Not sure if there are any special conditions for first year players.

 

[bradmahn]

My understanding is in line with (.)(.) and (_!_) -- after the first roster reduction you can place someone on IR without exposing them to waivers.

 

[Super Nomario]

Yeah, I think you guys are right and I'm wrong. IR-DTR you have to be on the initial 53-man, but for regular IR it looks like there's a point where they don't have to go through waivers. I'm having trouble figuring out exactly when that is.

 

[Cornboy14]

Guys with 4+ years experience can be put on IR without waivers at any time.

Guys with less experience must clear waivers prior to the first cutdown, which is Aug 26th to 75 players.

 

[Tony C]

This guy makes a pretty good argument that Michael Sam will be cut by the Rams and picked up by someone else:
 
http://miketanier.sportsonearthblog.com/why-the-rams-will-cut-michael-sam/
 
If so, and at least partly putting aside my pro-Sam bias, I think in purely football terms he'd bring more to the Pats than Buchanan or Will Smith. I could see that switch being made.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

This guy makes a pretty good argument that Michael Sam will be cut by the Rams and picked up by someone else:
 
http://miketanier.sportsonearthblog.com/why-the-rams-will-cut-michael-sam/
 
If so, and at least partly putting aside my pro-Sam bias, I think in purely football terms he'd bring more to the Pats than Buchanan or Will Smith. I could see that switch being made.

 
If he's cut, and that's a decent-sized if, picking up Sam to fill out our thin LB depth would be welcomed on football merits. Personally I'd love to see this happen on the same pro-Sam bias merits.

 

[MainerInExile]

With the recent TE movement, I'm more confident in the "2TE and Develin make the roster" prediction.  I'd be pretty surprised if a 3rd makes it at this point. Especially with the young OL they'll want to keep, why have one of these OLTE dudes make the roster?

 

[Pandemonium67]

If the Pats pick up Sam, they'll have to get Tebow back, too, to give Sams the old "Jeebus wants dudes to like ladies, dude" pep talk. Tebow would also solve the TE depth problem. Get on the horn, Bill!

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

http://patspicker.patsfans.com

• QB (2) Brady, Garoppolo
• RB (5) Ridley, Vereen, White, Develin, Finch
• WR (7) Amendola, Thompkins, Dobson, Edelman, LaFell, Slater, Tyms
• TE (2) Gronkowski, Hoomanawanui
• C (1) Wendell
• G (4) Mankins, Connolly, Cannon, Kline
• T (3) Vollmer, Solder, Fleming
• DE (4) Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Smith
• DT (6) Wilfork, Kelly, Vellano, Easley, Siliga, Jones
• ILB(1) Beauharnais
• OLB(5) Mayo, Hightower, Collins, Anderson, Fleming
• CB (6) Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, Dennard, Butler
• SS (2) Ebner, Wilson
• FS (2) McCourty, Harmon
• ST (3) Aiken, Gostkowski, Allen

After PS game 2 & the practices, here's the rub:

• QB: Mallett is cut or traded for a can of Tiger Balm -- too many useful players that will be useful for that 53rd spot
• RB: Finch makes it as I don't think he'll go past waiver wire. Really liked Gray and goes on the PS
• WR: Obviously the initial move is to get Boyce on while Tyms is on suspension, but my roster reflects that inevitability
• TE: Gronk & Hooman, unless Hooman is done for season or goes on a 6-week PUP
• C: Wendell makes it while Stork is IR'd for season
• G: Usual group as Connolly makes it for his versatility as well as super-sub Kline
• T: They keep Fleming and IRs Halapio
• DE: Zach Moore gets on the roster while Will Smith is cut as a shadow roster filler
• DT: I have Siliga & Jones still on the team while Forston seems to have regressed and is cut
• ILB: Beauharnais still makes dumb mistakes but is around the ball. ST value helps
• OLB: Fleming makes it while ST specialist Ja'Gared Davis gets on the shadow roster. Christ While is just too slow to make the cut
• CB: Toughest group -- Daxter Swanson gets on the PS. Butler does it!
• SS: Tavon Wilson is out as Chung gets his spot back
• FS: Jemea Thomas gets on the IR as he showed promise on his brief time on the field. ST ace Kanorris Davis cut.
• ST: Ho-hum. Puntator better perform this year or he's getting competition next year.

So the big decisions:

• OUT: Mallett, Bolden, DJ Williams, Steve Maneri, Josh Boyce, Will Smith, Jake Bequette, Marcus Forston, Chris White, Tavon Wilson
• IN: Roy Finch: Brian Tyms, Josh Kline, Cam Fleming, Zach Moore, Joe Vellano, Tavon Wilson
• PS: Jonas Gray, Jordan Devey, Daxton Swanson, 
• IR: Jeremy Gallon, Bryan Stork, Jon Halapio, Tyler Gaffney, Jerel Worthy, Jemea Thomas

Reach here is Zach Moore taking Will Smith's place but I think there's a bigger chance of Moore getting stolen than Smith getting picked up elsewhere. 
 
Of course, with the flood of cuts and vet cap casualties mean there'll be chills and thrills until D-1.

 

[Tony C]

Tyms can't be on the 53-man as he's suspended, same as Browner -- so you have 2 more spots! (at least for 4 weeks)
 
I think Wilson and Chung both get cut and the Pats in a passing league move more toward using Logan Ryan/Kyle Arrington in rotation with Harmon as a SS more oriented toward covering TEs or slot guys rather than run support.
 
I tend to agree with you on Mallet -- I forget what he'd earn them as a compensatory pick if they keep him for the year/lose him to free agency, but if it's a 3rd rounder that'd be my only hesitation on thinking they'll either cut him/trade him for a 6th rounder.
 
 

 

[j44thor]

Tyms can't be on the 53-man as he's suspended, same as Browner -- so you have 2 more spots! (at least for 4 weeks)
 
I think Wilson and Chung both get cut and the Pats in a passing league move more toward using Logan Ryan/Kyle Arrington in rotation with Harmon as a SS more oriented toward covering TEs or slot guys rather than run support.
 
I tend to agree with you on Mallet -- I forget what he'd earn them as a compensatory pick if they keep him for the year/lose him to free agency, but if it's a 3rd rounder that'd be my only hesitation on thinking they'll either cut him/trade him for a 6th rounder.

 
No way of knowing as compensatory picks take into considerations what FAs the Pats sign and the contract Mallet signs would also be part of the equation along with I believe his on-field production though not sure on the latter.  Regardless holding onto him in hopes of getting a compensatory pick isn't a great use of resources.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

• TE: Gronk & Hooman, unless Hooman is done for season or goes on a 6-week PUP

Hasn't he already practiced, so would have to be IR-DFR ?

 

[lambeau]

Silly me--I was thinking Halapio, Thomas and Worthy being 100% healthy would keep them off IR; but that solves nearly all my roster problems!

 

[lambeau]

I wonder if cutting down to a 51-man roster on cut day (Aug 30) makes sense--then bringing in our choice of top vested veterans in for a 30-day trial before having to activate Browner and Tyms.

 

[Dogman]

The downside to filling out the roster in that way is they would not know the playbook and most likely wouldn't contribute as much as someone who was in camp.
 
Obviously, making the 45 player game day roster is another consideration.

 

[Super Nomario]

• QB: Mallett is cut or traded for a can of Tiger Balm -- too many useful players that will be useful for that 53rd spot

Like everyone else, I've been encouraged by Garoppolo's preseason performance, but the smart money is still on the Pats carrying all three QBs. Garoppolo's had practice struggles and I think it's too much to ask for him go to from Eastern Illinois to one heartbeat away.
 

• T: They keep Fleming and IRs Halapio
• FS: Jemea Thomas gets on the IR as he showed promise on his brief time on the field. ST ace Kanorris Davis cut.

You can't just IR people who are healthy (and both Halapio and Thomas played Friday). It's against the rules for one, and while teams nudge-nudge/wink-wink rules at times, what's the player's incentive to go along in this case? Why would a health Halapio or Thomas consent to spending the year unable to practice or play when they'd have a chance to make another team?
 

• ILB: Beauharnais still makes dumb mistakes but is around the ball. ST value helps
• OLB: Fleming makes it while ST specialist Ja'Gared Davis gets on the shadow roster. Christ While is just too slow to make the cut

Beauharnais doesn't have much ST value - just 10 snaps there all year. White, meanwhile, played 367 (3rd on the team). 

 

[Stitch01]

Ott cut so Aiken has an inside track to a spot

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Like everyone else, I've been encouraged by Garoppolo's preseason performance, but the smart money is still on the Pats carrying all three QBs. Garoppolo's had practice struggles and I think it's too much to ask for him go to from Eastern Illinois to one heartbeat away.
 
You can't just IR people who are healthy (and both Halapio and Thomas played Friday). It's against the rules for one, and while teams nudge-nudge/wink-wink rules at times, what's the player's incentive to go along in this case? Why would a health Halapio or Thomas consent to spending the year unable to practice or play when they'd have a chance to make another team?
 
Beauharnais doesn't have much ST value - just 10 snaps there all year. White, meanwhile, played 367 (3rd on the team).

I wouldn't be surprised if Mallett was still on the team, and I can buy the argument that an experienced backup QB is more valuable than the tail-end of a roster guy. I just think if Brady were to go down I'd like to have JimmyG (yeah, no space between 'Jimmy' and 'G' homies) start. If that was the case, I'd still like to see that spot go to another player.

Good point on Halapio -- with Devey getting all the reps, is out of possibility that Halapio is cut? Regarding Thomas, he may just be a victim of not getting enough reps to impress. On the other hand, I'd be fine with cutting Chung AND Wilson and go with Harmon or a rotation of Arrington/Ryan at SS while keeping an upside guy like Thomas around.

Another good point on Beauharnais -- should have checked the stats. He's played more on ST this year, no? Even if the ST value is much less than White, there seems to be a world of difference in talent between these two guys. I can't see White subbing w/o significant damage to the D while I don't feel that way with Beauharnais. Man, was White slow and muddling the last two games.

 

[Super Nomario]

Good point on Halapio -- with Devey getting all the reps, is out of possibility that Halapio is cut? Regarding Thomas, he may just be a victim of not getting enough reps to impress. On the other hand, I'd be fine with cutting Chung AND Wilson and go with Harmon or a rotation of Arrington/Ryan at SS while keeping an upside guy like Thomas around.

They've cut 6th-rounders before - in 2011 they cut 5th-rounder Lee Smith.
 

Another good point on Beauharnais -- should have checked the stats. He's played more on ST this year, no? Even if the ST value is much less than White, there seems to be a world of difference in talent between these two guys. I can't see White subbing w/o significant damage to the D while I don't feel that way with Beauharnais. Man, was White slow and muddling the last two games.

You're talking about your 5th or 6th LB though, and they usually only play 2 (and they usually don't sub). Special teams is way more important than defense at that point. If guys like Anderson and Fleming don't make it, it's a different story (but then both Beauharnais and White probably make it).

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

With the recent TE movement, I'm more confident in the "2TE and Develin make the roster" prediction.  I'd be pretty surprised if a 3rd makes it at this point. Especially with the young OL they'll want to keep, why have one of these OLTE dudes make the roster?

 
If this is truly the direction the team is moving (big sets, slowing the game down, more runs and west coast offense dink & dunk) I'm all for it. It's how they won their first three SB's, and with the way the talent is constructed on offense - solid running game, efficient run blocking on the line and tight end, WR's that work best under 12 yards, a tight end that works the seam and the inside of the field - matching up with the way they want to play defense, I really like the idea of Bill "getting back to his roots".
 

 
No way of knowing as compensatory picks take into considerations what FAs the Pats sign and the contract Mallet signs would also be part of the equation along with I believe his on-field production though not sure on the latter.  Regardless holding onto him in hopes of getting a compensatory pick isn't a great use of resources.

 
I'm not sure I agree. Depending on the return, if the Patriots can net a 3rd or 4th round pick, I would think that value is much more useful then the difference between #53 on the roster and #54 on the practice squad. A 3rd or 4th round pick can net you a starter quality player. I would take that any day over a fringe special team player.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
If this is truly the direction the team is moving (big sets, slowing the game down, more runs and west coast offense dink & dunk) I'm all for it. It's how they won their first three SB's, and with the way the talent is constructed on offense - solid running game, efficient run blocking on the line and tight end, WR's that work best under 12 yards, a tight end that works the seam and the inside of the field - matching up with the way they want to play defense, I really like the idea of Bill "getting back to his roots".
 
 
I'm not sure I agree. Depending on the return, if the Patriots can net a 3rd or 4th round pick, I would think that value is much more useful then the difference between #53 on the roster and #54 on the practice squad. A 3rd or 4th round pick can net you a starter quality player. I would take that any day over a fringe special team player.

3rd and 4th round picks are over valued. I believe that on average You are much more likely to draft a fringe player/special teams contributor vs a starter in the 3rd or 4th round. At that point in the draft you are picking flawed players based on upside and potential. There are obviously exceptions but most will never live up to that potential

 

[j44thor]

I'm not sure I agree. Depending on the return, if the Patriots can net a 3rd or 4th round pick, I would think that value is much more useful then the difference between #53 on the roster and #54 on the practice squad. A 3rd or 4th round pick can net you a starter quality player. I would take that any day over a fringe special team player.

 
Odds you get a 3rd or 4th rd compensatory pick for Mallet are slim to none.  Only way that happens is if Brady goes down and Mallet has a Cassel like season.  At that point NE probably franchises him and trades him and we all jump off the Zakim.
 
If Mallet doesn't get more than a handful of snaps this season then there is no way he is getting the type of contract needed to justify more than a late 6th or 7th rd comp pick.  That was my point about not holding onto him solely for a comp pick.  More likely they hold onto him because Jimmy G doesn't have near the knowledge of the playbook that Mallet does.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

3rd and 4th round picks are over valued. I believe that on average You are much more likely to draft a fringe player/special teams contributor vs a starter in the 3rd or 4th round. At that point in the draft you are picking flawed players based on upside and potential. There are obviously exceptions but most will never live up to that potential

 
I think drafting a 3rd/4th round player is less likely to net you a fringe player then actually holding on a fringe player.
 
 

 
Odds you get a 3rd or 4th rd compensatory pick for Mallet are slim to none.  Only way that happens is if Brady goes down and Mallet has a Cassel like season.  At that point NE probably franchises him and trades him and we all jump off the Zakim.
 
If Mallet doesn't get more than a handful of snaps this season then there is no way he is getting the type of contract needed to justify more than a late 6th or 7th rd comp pick.  That was my point about not holding onto him solely for a comp pick.  More likely they hold onto him because Jimmy G doesn't have near the knowledge of the playbook that Mallet does.

 
This is fair. I'll be the first to admit that I don't know a whole lot about the compensatory pick process, and I (along with the rest of us) know less about what/where Mallett ends up after this season. I suppose this is one of those "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush" things, huh?

 

[Stitch01]

Even though Jimmy G has looked better than expected in games, I don't think BB wants to have a rookie QBng this team if Brady goes down for a few weeks.  I don't think the Pats have gone with a primary rookie backup during BB's tenure and, while they haven't used such a high pick on a QB before, I don't think that changes now.  I think Mallet's spot is pretty safe.
 
EDIT: Looks like Im wrong and they did do it in '09 with Hoyer, thought OConnell had lasted one more season.  Still think Mallet is safe this year though.

 

[dcmissle]

I agree with this and hope you are right.

Some Boston media are banging the drums for Jimmy G over Mallet. What these writers are not telling their audience is that you cannot draw much comfort from x-games when it comes to rookie QBs.

I don't want to be in the position of relying on this guy for even one win should Brady go down temporarily.

 

[Phragle]

If this is truly the direction the team is moving (big sets, slowing the game down, more runs and west coast offense dink & dunk) I'm all for it. It's how they won their first three SB's, and with the way the talent is constructed on offense - solid running game, efficient run blocking on the line and tight end, WR's that work best under 12 yards, a tight end that works the seam and the inside of the field - matching up with the way they want to play defense, I really like the idea of Bill "getting back to his roots".

 
Nah fuck that. It's a different league and a different QB. On defense I agree, and it seems like they're going that way, but they've had quite few offenses better than 2004 since then. If the Brady ACL thing doesn't happen and someone on the 2013 offense stays healthy they've had a better offense than 2004 every year since 2006. They've averaged almost 500 points (494) the last 7 seasons.
 
Plus we have the second coming of Randy Moss.
 

At that point NE probably franchises him and trades him and we all jump off the Zakim.

 
Yeah but not necessarily in that order.
 
 

I think Mallet's spot is pretty safe.

 
Me too, unless a moron trades for him.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Nah fuck that. It's a different league and a different QB. On defense I agree, and it seems like they're going that way, but they've had quite few offenses better than 2004 since then. If the Brady ACL thing doesn't happen and someone on the 2013 offense stays healthy they've had a better offense than 2004 every year since 2006. They've averaged almost 500 points (494) the last 7 seasons.
 

 
Right. I don't think you can ever go back to that specific type of offense again. Those days are gone. I do think, though, that running more plays out of a base package is a good way to keep defenses on their toes. 
 
It used to be that running a draw out of a 3 wide shotgun set was "deceptive". That kind of stuff is no longer the case. There will be plenty of spread formations from the Patriots this year, but I think you'll see them line up in a base package on first down frequently enough to keep teams guessing.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Right. I don't think you can ever go back to that specific type of offense again. Those days are gone. I do think, though, that running more plays out of a base package is a good way to keep defenses on their toes. 
 
It used to be that running a draw out of a 3 wide shotgun set was "deceptive". That kind of stuff is no longer the case. There will be plenty of spread formations from the Patriots this year, but I think you'll see them line up in a base package on first down frequently enough to keep teams guessing.

The one constancy in the Belichick era has been that his teams game plan. I think we'll see weeks where they use a lot of base (either with a FB or 2 TE, or even 6 OL given the T depth) and run out of that look, and weeks where they pass out of a base look. There will be weeks when they use a lot of 3 WR and run out of that look, and 3 WR-heavy weeks where they do a lot of passing. They'll game plan based on perceived weaknesses (nickel rush D, getting a dangerous front-7 defender off the field, exposing a nickel corner, attacking a weak run defender, etc.) and adjust based on how things are going and game situation. Being able to both run and pass from a variety of formation and personnel groups is important to Belichick.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Volin has his 53-man roster projection:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/17/projecting-patriots-man-roster/QyQJ6W4fA9VpVrdu9FMigJ/story.html

Has Finch just missing the cut while giving a spot to Maneri. I'd go nuclear if that happened especially with Hooman returning to health today.