2024 Spring Training Stuff

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1763636230070083747


SoxProspects projects Cron to make the MLB roster & C Note to start the year in AAA. I don't really see that combo of events.

Under that scenario their bench is Cron, McGuire, Reyes & Refsnyder, which is not nearly enough flexibility in the MI as literally only Story, Grissom & Reyes can play there.

I think if they're going to carry a guy like Cron they need to either replace Refsnyder with a guy with more flexibility or have C Note up.

I get the advantage of starting C Note in AAA to keep the extra year of control but that roster doesn't really work for me. Still potentially more dominoes to fall, though.
 

JM3

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One of those appears to be paint, but so far in 15 PAs this Spring, Ceddanne is 4-11 with 4 walks,.364/.533/.455, .988 OPS.
 

Merkle's Boner

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View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1763636230070083747


SoxProspects projects Cron to make the MLB roster & C Note to start the year in AAA. I don't really see that combo of events.

Under that scenario their bench is Cron, McGuire, Reyes & Refsnyder, which is not nearly enough flexibility in the MI as literally only Story, Grissom & Reyes can play there.

I think if they're going to carry a guy like Cron they need to either replace Refsnyder with a guy with more flexibility or have C Note up.

I get the advantage of starting C Note in AAA to keep the extra year of control but that roster doesn't really work for me. Still potentially more dominoes to fall, though.
Wondering if the Refsnyder Era may be coming to an end. I have to believe the team is better with C-Note on it rather than Rob Ref.
 

JM3

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Wondering if the Refsnyder Era may be coming to an end. I have to believe the team is better with C-Note on it rather than Rob Ref.
It's probably about time. I could see a world where they just game Rafaela's service time & if everyone is healthy, move on from Ref then, but having Reyes be the only viable back up at 2B, SS & 3B seems lopsided.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I can’t imagine they want Rafaela on the roster and only playing a few times a week, at best. How secure is Abreu’s job?

Last years opening day bench was Chang, McGuire, Tapia, and Refsnyder; FWIW. Figure Reyes, McGuire, and Refsnyder are equivalent to Chang, McGuire, and Refsnyder.

Last years DH could play 1b/3b, this years is OF. So I think the last spot has to be someone who can cover at least one of 1b/3b.

Theoretically, at least, Dalbec is probably a better option than Cron.
 
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JM3

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I can’t imagine they want Rafaela on the roster and only playing a few times a week, at best. How secure is Abreu’s job?

Last years opening day bench was Chang, McGuire, Tapia, and Refsnyder; FWIW. Figure Reyes, McGuire, and Refsnyder are equivalent to Chang, McGuire, and Refsnyder.

Last years DH could play 1b/3b, this years is OF. So I think the last spot has to be someone who can cover at least one of 1b/3b.

Theoretically, at least, Dalbec is probably a better option than Cron.
I would be pretty surprised if Rafaela is on the roster & not playing 5+ games a week. I don't envision him as a sub, but his ability to start in CF & be their 3rd or 4th MI is a lot more useful structurally than either Ref or Abreu as constituted.

& yeah, Dalbec being theoretically more useful is the other issue I have with projecting Cron to Red Sox & C Note to Worcester.

I have no clue how secure they view Abreu. They're on the record as expecting him to have 400 PAs this season, though. Functionally, they can't really carry all 3 of Cron, Ref & Abreu without being painfully inflexible.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I’m sure this is posted somewhere, but what are Abreu’s minor league #s vs LHP? All these LH, especially in the OF, seem like a potential problem, but probably lock Refsnyder into a roster spot.
 

JM3

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I’m sure this is posted somewhere, but what are Abreu’s minor league #s vs LHP? All these LH, especially in the OF, seem like a potential problem, but probably lock Refsnyder into a roster spot.
All #s R/L OPS

Abreu AAA .960/.739 (.929/.400 MLB)
Yoshida .795/.746
Duran .841/.749

C Note MiLB .851/.782 (.675/.645 MLB)
O'Neill .684/.794
Refsnyder .466/.828

So with the other 5 & no Ref it could like like:

RHP
LF Duran
CF Rafaela or O'Neill
RF Abreu
DH Yoshida

LHP
LF Yoshida (home) or Duran (road)
CF Rafaela
RF O'Neill
DH Cron
 

simplicio

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I’m sure this is posted somewhere, but what are Abreu’s minor league #s vs LHP? All these LH, especially in the OF, seem like a potential problem, but probably lock Refsnyder into a roster spot.
Last year in Worcester he was .968 OPS vs RHP and .788 vs RHP. That split's been increasing the last 3 years.
 

LogansDad

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It's probably about time. I could see a world where they just game Rafaela's service time & if everyone is healthy, move on from Ref then, but having Reyes be the only viable back up at 2B, SS & 3B seems lopsided.
This is a borderline hot take, but if they think Rafaela's newfound plate discipline is even close to real, and not a product of the team telling him "just take everything in spring training so you get used to not swinging every now and then", he is a RotY candidate, in my opinion. A CF who can get on base at a .340 to .360 or so clip and is an excellent base runner and a game changing defender is a WAR machine.

He should be on the roster over Refsnyder, and to me there is no question about it. The fact he could net them a draft pick if things go impossibly well just seals it for me.
 

Ale Xander

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This is a borderline hot take, but if they think Rafaela's newfound plate discipline is even close to real, and not a product of the team telling him "just take everything in spring training so you get used to not swinging every now and then", he is a RotY candidate, in my opinion. A CF who can get on base at a .340 to .360 or so clip and is an excellent base runner and a game changing defender is a WAR machine.

He should be on the roster over Refsnyder, and to me there is no question about it. The fact he could net them a draft pick if things go impossibly well just seals it for me.
Agreed with this

but it would be smoother if they could get a good trade for Masa or Duran
 

JM3

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Last year in Worcester he was .968 OPS vs RHP and .788 vs RHP. That split's been increasing the last 3 years.
Oops. For some reason the BRef Minor League #s I was looking at included MLB for both Abreu & Rafaela.

This is a borderline hot take, but if they think Rafaela's newfound plate discipline is even close to real, and not a product of the team telling him "just take everything in spring training so you get used to not swinging every now and then", he is a RotY candidate, in my opinion. A CF who can get on base at a .340 to .360 or so clip and is an excellent base runner and a game changing defender is a WAR machine.

He should be on the roster over Refsnyder, and to me there is no question about it. The fact he could net them a draft pick if things go impossibly well just seals it for me.
Well, as of 10 days ago you could gave gotten some really good odds on Ceddanne for ROTY...

The favorites are Evan Carter (+275) & Jackson Holliday (+300).

Wilyer Abreu is 11th at +3000.

C Note & Mayer are part of a 6-way tie for 18th at +5000.

(I bet a small amount on the Red Sox over 79.5 wins at even odds... I'm a sucker for the JM smoke)
Let's see if it's changed...nope odds still look the same on everyone, including 50-1 on C Note.
 

simplicio

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This is a borderline hot take, but if they think Rafaela's newfound plate discipline is even close to real, and not a product of the team telling him "just take everything in spring training so you get used to not swinging every now and then", he is a RotY candidate, in my opinion. A CF who can get on base at a .340 to .360 or so clip and is an excellent base runner and a game changing defender is a WAR machine.



He should be on the roster over Refsnyder, and to me there is no question about it. The fact he could net them a draft pick if things go impossibly well just seals it for me.
That's kind of assuming production from Duran & Abreu is a given though, and I'm not certain that's the case. We have a much better idea of what Refsnyder is likely to do than any of the others, and there's value in that.

I still think we end up with 2 of the 3 kids in Boston and one in Worcester to start the year, and yeah, right now Rafaela is making a very strong case to be one of them. But on the flip side, Abreu's also gotten a lot of playing time and done nothing with it so far.
 

JM3

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They are also 50-1 to win the World Series.

There are some other interesting Red Sox related bets up now...

+260 to make playoffs
-350 to miss playoffs

Longest win streak:
+6.5, -110
-6.5, -110

Longest losing streak
+6.5, -125
-6.5, +105

More wins
Padres -135
Red Sox +115

More homers
Soto -185
Devers +140

More homers
Story -130
X +100
 

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JM3

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Dalbec/Sogard hit their doubles against a lefty, which is the least surprising thing ever.

His name is Ian Seymour, so the abbreviation is I Seymour, which I find funny.
 

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1763636230070083747


SoxProspects projects Cron to make the MLB roster & C Note to start the year in AAA. I don't really see that combo of events.

Under that scenario their bench is Cron, McGuire, Reyes & Refsnyder, which is not nearly enough flexibility in the MI as literally only Story, Grissom & Reyes can play there.

I think if they're going to carry a guy like Cron they need to either replace Refsnyder with a guy with more flexibility or have C Note up.

I get the advantage of starting C Note in AAA to keep the extra year of control but that roster doesn't really work for me. Still potentially more dominoes to fall, though.
:sideeye:

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1764505445090140239
 

JM3

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While that's true from a capability standpoint, I think moving Rafaela around before he's established himself as a full time CF and hitter would be malpractice. He should only see the infield if multiple people go down and Dalbec is stuck in traffic coming from Worcester.
I think if Rafaela is the 4th MI, which means he is only playing there at the end of games when for whatever reason they had to move around several pieces, I don't think that's necessarily problematic for development. If he was the 3rd MI & starting games at CF, SS & 2B, I agree that would be quite suboptimal at this point.
 

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1764750621301682450


There's a pretty clear path for Joely to take Jacques' spot on the 40 & earn a spot in the bullpen (even if we don't trade Kenley):

Bello
Giolito
Pivetta
Crawford
Houck or Whotlock

Kenley
Martin
Slaten (R5)
Whitlock or Houck
Winck
Campbell
Bernardino (L)
Joely (L)

Mata (inj)

40
Weissert
Kelly
Murphy (L)
Walter (L)
Criswell
Wikelman
Perales
Jacques (for now)

Other AAA options
Fitts
Gambrell
Guerrero
Luetge (L)
Hagenman
Politi
BVB
German
Booser

AA options
Hoppe
Troye
Helcris
Benitez
Etc
 

JM3

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Red Sox beat the Rays 7-4 at JetBlue Park. Now 8-4-1 this spring.

⚾ Garrett Whitlock ran into trouble in the third. 3 IP - 4 Hits - 2 ER/R - 2 K - 0 BB.

⚾ Tyler O’Neill had himself a day. 2-for-2 with a homer, double, and 3 RBI. Also a stolen base.

⚾ Enmanuel Valdez also went off. 3-for-3 with 3 RBI. Triple, double, and single.

⚾ Trevor Story went 1-for-2 with 2 SB. Also had a throwing error at SS.

⚾ Connor Wong had a 1-for-2 day with an RBI single.

⚾ Justin Slaten gave up a run in an inning of work because of the Story error. 1 IP - 1 Hit - 1 R - 1 K - 0 BB.

⚾ Chris Murphy wasn’t sharp, but Ryan Zeferjahn entered with the bases loaded in the 6th and escaped (2 Ks).

⚾ Brennan Bernardino looked great with a scoreless 7th. Jorge Benitez did the same in the 8th with 2 Ks.

⚾ Noah Song was used in the 9th once again. 1-2-3 inning with a K. Closed it out.

⚾ Fingers-crossed Jarren Duran’s injury isn’t serious.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1765117734856093729


Well I guess we know who is closing games once we trade Martin & Jansen.

& the Duran injury was not serious.

View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1765123607557292496
 

LogansDad

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I am strangely excited about seeing Tyler O'Neill in this outfield. I really think they are set up well between Duran/Abreu/Rafaela and O'Neill to be able to get everyone playing time, but also get them some time off as well. Solid offense and at least decent defense all around. Until, of course, someone gets hurt.
 

JM3

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I am strangely excited about seeing Tyler O'Neill in this outfield. I really think they are set up well between Duran/Abreu/Rafaela and O'Neill to be able to get everyone playing time, but also get them some time off as well. Solid offense and at least decent defense all around. Until, of course, someone gets hurt.
View: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1765090840836526156


It's a fun mix. Will be interesting to see how the final few roster spots play out.
 

JM3

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It's a good thing Roman is good at baseball because I'm not so sure he has a future in barbering.

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