2024 Red Sox MiLB Acquisitions & Removals

[JM3]

This will be the thread to discuss any guys who are brought in new to the system (with the exception of the IFA class), along with any guys who are let go to make room for the new guys.

January is a big time for turnover as the team clears out space for a new International Free Agency class. So I will go into some detail shortly regarding the 17 players the Red Sox have released since I last posted, including my rankings of each player from November 22, 2023, which are of course a bit stale, but show generally what I thought of them at the time. It will be an interesting chance to look at where I went wrong, too.

 

[JM3]

Released December 21st - Jesus Prado (#179 of 242)

Prado, who turned 18 in October, signed for $10k on signing day for IFAs 2023, but lasted less than a year. The 5'11 RHH corner outfielder from San Juan de Morros, Venezuela started off slow.

From Beginning to August 4th:
16 games
6-37
1 double
1 HBP
6 walks
15 strikeouts

.162/.295/.189, .484 OPS, 14% bb, 34.1% k

From August 12th to End:
4 games
7-13
2 walks
3 strikeouts

.538/.600/.538, 1.138 OPS, 13.3% bb, 20% k

Of course it's a tiny sample, but I figured he might have figured something out & get another chance as a result. The fact that he only had 1 xbh all season is kind of a red flag, though. He ended his only Red Sox season with a 93 wRC+.

 

[JM3]

Released January 6th - Claudio Simon (#188 of 242)

Simon, who turned 22 in December, signed for $5k in December '21. The 5'9 RHH UT from La Romana, DR was an older signing as he was already 20 before he made his DSL debut in '22. Simon quickly proved that he was not very good at hitting, putting up a 73 wRC+ in 170 PAs, but he did steal 31 bases in 34 attempts.

This past year, Simon started the season with the FCL Sox where he continued to not hit (68 wRC+ in 30 PAs) before being promoted to Salem to fill in some gaps. Simon rode a .373 BABIP to a 77 wRC+ in 70 PAs, striking out 1/3 of the time.

In his time with the Red Sox Simon played a lot of positions...

3B - 22 games
2B - 21 games
LF - 20 games
RF - 11 games
CF - 6 games
DH - 3 games
1B - 2 games
SS - 1 game

But it is not a particularly big surprise they let him go. He had 4 xbh all season, & while it may have been nice to have so one with so much versatility, there wasn't really any upside there.

 

[JM3]

Released January 6th - Michael Valera (#232 of 242)

Valera, who turns 25 next month, was another older, low-bonus signing, receiving $7k in July 2019. The 6'2 RHP from San Pedro de Macoris, DR pitched 2 scoreless innings in Rookie Ball in '19 was not able to pitch regularly until '21 due to the COVID year, at which point he had a rough DSL season at age 22, putting up a 7.96 ERA, striking out 11.1 per 9, but walking 5.4 in 31.2 IP.

Walks would be a continuing trend for Valera who spent '22 in the FCL, putting up a 6.64 ERA with 13.7 k/9 & 6.2 bb/9 in 20.1 IP. Valera started '23 repeating the FCL, & had a solid stretch, 2.70 ERA, 10.8 k/9, 2 bb/9 in 13.1 IP & was promoted to A-Ball. Valera again struggled with walks in A-Ball, 5.93 ERA, 12.2 k/9, 5.6 bb/9 in 30.1 IP.

It is not surprising that he was let go based on his advanced age & lack of control. SoxProspects notes that he sits 92-94 & tops out at 96, but lacks secondary pitches, control or command.

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/valera-michael.htm

 

[JM3]

Released January 6th - Jogly Garcia (#233 of 242)

Jogly, who turns 21 next September, was signed for $20k in March '21. The 6'2 RHP from Maracay, Venezuela only pitched 3 innings in '21...but they were really awful. Over 5 games he faced 24 hitters, & only allowed 1 hit. Unfortunately, he walked 14 of them (42.0 bb/9). He repeated the DSL in '22 with much better control, but did not miss bats. In 33.2 IP he had a 4.28 ERA, struck out 6.7 per 9 & walked 2.1 per 9.

The Red Sox tried to move Jogly to the FCL for '23, but it just didn't work. In 19 innings he had a 9.47 ERA, 7.6 k/9, 5.2 bb/9. It is no surprise that he was let go.

 

[JM3]

Released January 6th - Cesar Ruiz (#190 of 242)

Ruiz, who turns 21 in June, was signed for $200k in July '19. This was the same month the Red Sox signed Luis Perales for $75k. Really shows how much of a crapshoot this stuff can be. The 6'3 RHP from Puerto Cabello, VZ struggled through 2 DSL seasons riddled by walks before starting to get it together this year in his 3rd DSL season, putting up a 1.46 ERA in 24 IP & striking out 10.6 per 9. This hid some of the underlying issues, though, as Ruiz had a 4.19 xFIP, & even though it was a career low in walks, he was still walking 4.2 per 9.

Ruiz was promoted to the FCL & struggled in a SSS. In 5.1 IP, Ruiz allowed 6 hits, walked 4, struck out 4 & allowed 7 runs (4 earned). Not surprising he was let go after proving for 3 seasons that he he could not locate or effectively get hitters out.

 

[JM3]

Released January 6th - Simon Pacheco (#180 of 242)

Pacheco, who turns 22 in June, was signed for $5k in September '19. The 5'11 RHP, like Jogly Garcia, was from Maracay, VZ. Not to fret, though, the Red Sox still have 5 players from Maracay returning, including Wikelman Gonzalez & Bryan Mata. It appears that 19 of the Red Sox 40 IFA signings so far have been from Venezuela, but I haven't done the work yet to determine if any of them are from Maracay.

Pacheco struggled in his 1st DSL season in '21 (6.67 ERA, 6.3 k/9, 5 bb/9 in 27 IP), but did much, much better when he repeated the level in '22 (0.77 ERA, 10.8 k/9, 0.8 bb/9 in 35 IP, 5 saves).

I had moved him up a bit on the list because despite poor pitching #s in the FCL this season (5.40 ERA, 7.15 xFIP, 8.4 k/9, 8.4 bb/9 in 15 IP) because the Red Sox appeared to think enough of his stuff to be attempting to use him as a closer - he had 7 saves in 14 appearances this season. It's interesting that he could go from 0.8 bb/9 to 8.4 bb/9 in one season, & it was such a SSS that I was a bit surprised he didn't get another shot. But short RHP who top out in the low 90s don't exactly have the highest upside. His best pitch was his changeup per SP.

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/pacheco-simon.htm

 

[JM3]

Released January 10th - Emmanuel Polo (#238 of 242)

Polo, who turns 23 in August, never seemed long for the org, signing for $1,000 in April of this year. He pitched 18.2 really bad DSL innings this year (10.13 ERA, 7.7 k/9, 4.4 bb/9). Like Valera, Polo is from San Pedro de Macoris, DR. Not to worry, though - the Red Sox return 11 other players from San Pedro de Macoris, including Miguel Bleis. 15 of their 40 IFA signings so far have been from the Dominican Republic, cities TBD.

 

[JM3]

Released January 10th - Hanssel De Los Santos (#242 of 242)

The timing of getting rid of these two 4 days after getting rid of other, more interesting, players seems kind of random to me, but that's ok. Hanssel, so cold right now, like Polo signed for $1,000, albeit a month earlier in March. He pitched 12 innings that were even worse than Polo's (15.75 ERA, 2.3 k/9, 15.8 bb/9). That is a 4% k-rate & a 29% bb-rate. Hanssel will turn 20 in September & is a 6'4 RHP from Puerto Plata, DR.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Yizreel Burnet (#130 of 242)

Burnet, who turned 20 three days after he was released, signed for $125k in January '21. The 6'4 RHP with impossibly long arms is from Willemstad, Curaçao. This leaves C Note & Karim Ayubi as the Red Sox remaining Curaçaoans, with 1 more coming via IFA.

This was the only one of the releases that I was actually a bit disappointed about. Chris Hatfield speculated that it was due to injury issues, which wouldn't be at all surprising. I recently bumped him from 168 up to 130 because he just irrationally looks like a pitcher to me, but he only managed 25 innings over 3 seasons (17, 7 & 1 this year - a 1-2-3 inning on July 17th).

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Natanael Eusebio (#231 of 242)

This is the day they really started culling the DSL guys to make room for the next batch. Eusebio, a 6'0 lefty OF from Villa La Mata, DR, got 2 cracks at the DSL after signing for $10k in '22, but did not make the most of them. Eusebio dropped from a 90 wRC+ in his 1st year to a 64 wRC+ in his 2nd year, & was not particularly fast (3 steals in 6 attempts over the 2 years). Seemed like a pretty easy decision.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Jean Carlos Reyes (#207 of 242)

Reyes, from Santiago, DR signed for $195k in January '21. Likely due to that pedigree, the 6'2 RHP got 3 cracks at the DSL, but never really showed that he could strikeout hitters or not walk them (6.8 k/9 this year, 5.4 bb/9).

In my write-up on Reyes for my who are they getting rid of thing I wrote "Reyes had a 3.53 ERA, but a 1.54 WHIP & 6.8 k/9, so I expect him to be gone."

Our returning Santiago contingent is down to 3, led by Eddinson Paulino, after the loss of Reyes & Railin Perez to the MiLB R5.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Albert Chalas (#213 of 242)

Here was my write-up on Chalas from October:

Albert Chalas (#196) - & I thought Semerite's k-rate was high...Chalas struck out 30 times in 70 PAs (42.9%). He was 11-30 with 2 doubles & 4 triples when he did not strike out for a slug-heavy .650 OPS. Chalas turned 18 last month. He played 11 games in left & 7 games in right. He signed for $10k in January. I'm oddly fascinated. Wouldn't be surprised to see him repeat if they think they can fix the strikeout thing, but also wouldn't be surprised if they gave up.

He ended up in my "cut" projections. Chalas was a 5'11 LHH who throws righty from Boca Chica, DR.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Jose Liriano (#214 of 242)

Here was my Liriano write-up:

Jose Liriano (#215) had a .651 OPS last year & had the chance to repeat this year where he put up a .742 OPS. Based on other examples, this does not seem good enough for a 1B/DH type, & I'm guessing he's probably gone. He signed for $5k in November '21.

Liriano was a 6'2 LHH who throws righty from Santo Domingo, DR.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Alex Castillo (#225 of 242)

Here was my Castillo write-up:

Alex Castillo (#225) - Castillo is listed at 5'9 on SoxProspects & 6'1 on BRef. Maybe growing 4 inches is the reason he can't hit a baseball? He struck out 35 times in 89 PAs (39.3%) & only walked 5 times (5.6%). He still managed to put up a .610 OPS. He played mostly OF except 2 innings at SS. He didn't make an error in 163 innings, 106 of which were in RF. He signed for $50k in January & turned 18 last month. Honestly no clue what to make of him. Kind of feel like he might get another chance but idk...I feel like even if they release him I should have him ranked a bit higher, though. Just a weird profile.

I shouldn't be surprised they cut my #225, but I did have him as projected for another DSL season for some reason. Castillo is a RHH from Azua, DR.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Andres Jimenez (#74 of 242)

Burnet was my most disappointing cut, but this is obviously my most surprising & I had him ranked rather highly...but in hindsight I completely botched the ranking. Jimenez, who turned 19 a few days ago signed for $10k in January '22 (maybe this should have been my 1st red flag). Jimenez is a 6'2 RHP from Valencia, VZ.

This is 1 data point that looked good for Jimenez...

Top 20 in opponents OPS against, minimum 20 IP who are still in the org as of now...

1) Alisson Del Orbe (DSL) 0.474 (#109) - He's an MLFA that I hope they are bringing back.
2) Nicolas De La Cruz (DSL) 0.485 (#95) - Should hopefully be getting a shot at FCL next season.
3) Andres Jimenez (DSL) 0.528 (#72) - The best of our 3 Jimenez's IMO, ahead of Frederik & Gilberto.
4) Yordanny Monegro (FCL, A, A+) 0.549 (#7) - YORDANNY!
5) Luis Guerrero (AA, AAA) 0.558 (#15) - Could be a tweak or two away from high leverage MLB innings.
6) Zach Penrod (A+) 0.560 (#40) - Another guy who could be part of the Red Sox pen before too long, per Jon Morosi.
7) Jonathan Brand (A) 0.569 (#71) - Is not tall. We'll see how he does in A+ next year.
8) Jose Martinez (DSL) 0.570 (#61) - Another guy I'm hoping for FCL success next year.
9) Felix Cepeda (A, A+) 0.577 (#53) - Does he start next year in AA after his AFL stint? Lean toward no.
10) Cristofer Soriano (DSL) - 0.587 (#214) - An older gentleman (turns 21 later this month).
11) Ali Ascanio (DSL) - 0.591 (#206) - Similar age stuff, turns 20 this month.
12) Wikelman Gonzalez (A+, AA) - 0.599 (#9) - Turns 22 next March. If he looks good in the Spring, could start in AAA?
13) Luis Cohen (FCL) - 0.602 (#93) - Am I the only person with LuCo stock?
14) Christopher Troye (A+, AA) - 0.603 (#38) - Lots of people have CT stock.
15) Gilberto Bautisto (DSL) - 0.604 (#48) - The pitching gem of our DSL program? I guess we'll find out next year.
16) Cesar Ruiz (DSL, FCL) - 0.608 (#198) - Didn't do great in 5.1 FCL IP, but could take a jump next year.
17) Brock Bell (A, A+) - 0.609 (#84) - Great comeback, had been out since 2019. But 26 next season & not sure stuff plays up.
18) Jedixson Paez (A) - 0.613 (#33) - Looking forward to high-A Jedi next year.
19) Luis De La Rosa (A) - 0.622 (#52) - Another guy I think I might be on an island with, but I hope to see him in A+ ASAP.
20) Robert Kwiatkowski (A+, AA) - 0.624 (#213) - Can't say I was expecting to see the Kwiat Assassin on this list.

https://www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php?split=0&page=1&sortby=OPS&team=0&year=2023&type=1&min=0

Other good data points for Jimenez include a 2.23 ERA & 11.5 k/9.

There are 2 things of note as to why the ranking is botched & why it should not be that surprising he was released:

1) I have been treating Jimenez as a starter this whole time. No clue where I got that impression, but it was a firmly held belief & he is not. In 2 DSL seasons he pitched 25 games (1 start)...pitching 44.1 innings. Armed with that knowledge, the rest of the #s don't look nearly as interesting.

2) He walked 21.1% of hitters last year & an improved, but still way too high, 14% this year, which was a big part of his 5.31 & 4.03 xFIPs the past 2 years.

So yup...my bad. Still seems like a borderline type of guy based on the OPS against, but an awful ranking.

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Marcos Almanzar (#228 of 242)

Almanzar, who doesn't turn 18 until March, did not quite make it a full season with the Red Sox after being signed 1/15/23 for $10k. The 6'1 RHP from Sabana Perdida, DR walked 24 in 12.1 innings, leading to a 8.76 ERA (10.16 xFIP).

 

[JM3]

Released January 12th - Ali Ascanio (#206 of 242)

The last known cut at this time, Ascanio was more a victim of his age (20) & inability to throw strikes (7.1 bb/9 last year, 7.2 bb/9 this year) than his results (3.69 ERA & 4.18 ERA). They are definitely clearing out the can't throw strikes portion of the system. Ascanio signed for $10k in November '21 & is from Bolivar, VZ.

 

[JM3]

Well I guess that's one less catcher to find room for in AA...

View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1749966932344705439


Erro was #118 in my last ranking.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Welcome back, @JM3. Great to see your posts

 

[Reverse Curve]

Echoing the many sentiments on the MiLB forum, I'm really glad to see you back @JM3... I will contribute moving forward, rather than just gawking!

 

[JM3]

Thx y'all, good to be back here, & that's awesome news RC.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1749934988634497449


Factually incorrect statement by SP.

In high-A, Erro had a 92 wRC+ in 249 PAs this year after 118 in 139 PAs last year. His 9 games in Portland were good, though (125 wRC+). Erro turned 26 last month & there's not a lot of room for him at AA with Teel & Hickey, so seems like a reasonable choice & hopefully he moves on to new & awesome things.

On his private Instagram account he describes himself as an entrepreneur, ballplayer & wayfarer.

 

[JM3]

I forgot about this thread for acquisitions:

View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1753083732771139901


Dunand would seem to be a guy who could compete with Dalbec for the RHH back up 1B/3B role if they don't feel like acquiring a MLB player to do it.

He was a 2nd rounder in '17 & is A-Rod's nephew.

The 6'2 28 y/o had 11 MLB PAs with the Marlins in '22 (3-10 with a homer). Last year he played for the Braves AAA & had a 111 wRC+.

Last year Dunand played 36 games at 3B, 31 at 1B, 7 in LF & 23 at DH.

Between MiLB & his brief MLB call up:

SS - 215 games (mostly in '18 & '19)
3B - 200 games
1B - 58 games
DH - 23 games
LF - 7 games
2B - 2 games (both in MLB)

In college & on the cape for Harwich he played SS & 3B.

 

[JM3]

Dunand spent the entirety of the 2023 campaign with Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate in Gwinnett. He batted .268/.362/.481 with 19 doubles, two triples, 17 home runs, 52 RBIs, 49 runs scored, three stolen bases, 45 walks, and 107 strikeouts in 95 games (403 plate appearances) for the Stripers before being granted free agency this past November.

Dunand, who does not turn 29 until September, figures to provide the Red Sox with experienced infield/outfield depth at Worcester this coming season. He has two minor-league options remaining, so that could help his case if he is needed in Boston at any point in 2024.

https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2024/02/01/red-sox-sign-alex-rodriguezs-nephew-to-minor-league-deal/

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Nice pickup to get a guy with 2 options to stash in AAA in a role where we need depth. If someone has an injury Dunand could come up for a little while and then go back, which is nice, if he can hit a bit.

 

[JM3]

So much for the Max Castillo era.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1753492478223675867


Heineman is a 33 y/o catcher with options & no offensive ability.

View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1753500279268356308

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1753493201447510436

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/MLB_CS/status/1560644207697608707


The more I look at it, I wouldn't be shocked if he supplants Reese. Career 12.6% strikeout rate, switch hitter, with plus defense & an option is kinda interesting.

 

[JM3]

Rio is headed to Taiwan.

View: https://twitter.com/GOCPBL/status/1754751787930947693


Our AAA pitching depth should be depthier this year.

 

[JM3]

We have acquired MLFA SS Dalton Guthrie, 28. He is Mark Guthrie's son.

02/07/24SS Dalton Guthrie assigned to Worcester Red Sox.

02/06/24Boston Red Sox signed free agent SS Dalton Guthrie to a minor league contract.

 

[JM3]

We have also signed one Cooper Adams.

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/C3Dc8Jwuil_/?igsh=amV5YjJnbWtzcHF1


Adams appears to be a UDFA starting pitcher from Mt. Saint Mary's (MD). Last year he had a 4.70 ERA, 8 k/9, 2.2 bb/9, 1.34 WHIP.

He appears to be an RHP. Or pitching in an elaborate mirror, but probably the 1st thing.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2IwyRnPGg5/?igsh=MWxmenBwaTE0aHBxOQ==

He is listed at 6'3.

2023 SEASON: Remained a dependable starter for the Mountaineers, earning eight victories and lowering his ERA more than two points from the previous year ... Leader for the Mount in innings pitched (82.1) and strikeouts (73) ... His 14 starts are tied for the most at the Mount since the transition to Division I in the late 1980s ... Averaged 2.19 walks per nine throughout the campaign ... Picked up three wins in his first five starts and went 7-1 through 10 appearances ... Fanned 12 Canisius batters in a hard luck loss March 25th ... Followed that with a streak of three straight victories, including eight strong innings against Fairfield March 31st.

https://mountathletics.com/sports/baseball/roster/cooper-adams/7296

 

[JM3]

We have acquired MLFA SS Dalton Guthrie, 28. He is Mark Guthrie's son.

02/07/24SS Dalton Guthrie assigned to Worcester Red Sox.

02/06/24Boston Red Sox signed free agent SS Dalton Guthrie to a minor league contract.

More on Dalton Guthrie (no...I am not calling him a 'moron'):

Guthrie was the Phillies 6th round pick in 2017, signing for $350k. He was a sub-100 wRC+ player for basically his whole MiLB career until he was promoted to AAA in '21 & put up a 105 in 139 PAs.

Guthrie built on that in '22, putting up a 123 wRC+ in 379 PAs, & making his MLB debut, which consisted of 28 PAs, a 185 wRC+ & 0.3 fWAR.

In '23 he again hit pretty well in AAA for the Phillies (119 wRC+ in 96 PAs) & again got 28 MLB PAs, but this time with a 45 wRC+ (0.1 fWAR).

In June, Guthrie was DFA'd to make room for Darick Hall's return from the injury list. He was traded to the Giants for cash. In 42 PAs with their AAA team he had a 64 wRC+, & then was DFA'd again to make room for Mauricio Llovera to be added to the 40-man.

In July, the Braves claimed Guthrie off waivers & after 10 AAA games (.306 avg), DFA'd him. He cleared waivers & spent the rest of the year with the Braves AAA team (86 wRC+ in 20t PAs) before opting for free agency.

Guthrie a the Phillies #25 prospect heading into last year per FanGraphs:

At one point there was hope that Guthrie could play 2B/3B and at least the corner outfield spots, but as the infield became less of an option, it became more imperative for him to prove that he could play center field and act as a versatile, righty-hitting complement to Brandon Marsh. Guthrie was given lots of center field run during the spring of 2023 and actually looked okay out there, but the Phillies still made the decision to trade for Cristian Pache, who brings a splashier glove (and more volatile offense) to their 40-man. Guthrie is on the Luke Williams path. He has a competent hit tool and can play center field in a pinch, but you’d rather have him in a corner. He’s an above-replacement journeyman type.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philadelphia-phillies-top-33-prospects-2023/

He is listed as a SS, but is actually an OF primarily.

Last year at all stops & levels:

LF - 41 games
CF - 40 games
RF - 16 games
3B - 2 games
SS - 2 games
2B - 1 game

 

[JM3]

Dalton's dad, Mark Guthrie, played 46 games for the Red Sox in '99, putting up a 5.83 ERA in 46.1 IP.

The Red Sox signed Guthrie as a free agent in December '98 for 2 years, $3.2m, & traded him for Rod Beck at the trade deadline. Beck had a 1.93 ERA in 14 games for the Red Sox in '99 & went on to 2 more mostly successful seasons with the Sox, posting 3.10 & 3.90 ERAs.

12-19-1998Signed by Boston Red Sox (December 19, 1998).

08-31-1999Traded by Boston Red Sox with a player to be named later to Chicago Cubs in exchange for Rod Beck (August 31, 1999); Chicago Cubs received Cole Liniak (September 1, 1999).

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/trades.php?p=guthrma01

Cole Liniak put up a -0.7 bWAR in 33 PAs with the Cubs & never made it back to MLB after his age 23 season.

In total, Mark Guthrie played 15 MLB seasons & pitched 978.2 innings with a 4.05 ERA.

 

[JM3]

We have also signed one Cooper Adams.

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/C3Dc8Jwuil_/?igsh=amV5YjJnbWtzcHF1


Adams appears to be a UDFA starting pitcher from Mt. Saint Mary's (MD). Last year he had a 4.70 ERA, 8 k/9, 2.2 bb/9, 1.34 WHIP.

He appears to be an RHP. Or pitching in an elaborate mirror, but probably the 1st thing.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C2IwyRnPGg5/?igsh=MWxmenBwaTE0aHBxOQ==

He is listed at 6'3.



https://mountathletics.com/sports/baseball/roster/cooper-adams/7296

View: https://twitter.com/ByAndrewParker/status/1755289814784495800

 

[JM3]

Twins had a busy day, including claiming Zack Weiss.

View: https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1755309761971589264

View: https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1755310236187902062

 

[JM3]

More on Dalton Guthrie (no...I am not calling him a 'moron'):

Guthrie was the Phillies 6th round pick in 2017, signing for $350k. He was a sub-100 wRC+ player for basically his whole MiLB career until he was promoted to AAA in '21 & put up a 105 in 139 PAs.

Guthrie built on that in '22, putting up a 123 wRC+ in 379 PAs, & making his MLB debut, which consisted of 28 PAs, a 185 wRC+ & 0.3 fWAR.

In '23 he again hit pretty well in AAA for the Phillies (119 wRC+ in 96 PAs) & again got 28 MLB PAs, but this time with a 45 wRC+ (0.1 fWAR).

In June, Guthrie was DFA'd to make room for Darick Hall's return from the injury list. He was traded to the Giants for cash. In 42 PAs with their AAA team he had a 64 wRC+, & then was DFA'd again to make room for Mauricio Llovera to be added to the 40-man.

In July, the Braves claimed Guthrie off waivers & after 10 AAA games (.306 avg), DFA'd him. He cleared waivers & spent the rest of the year with the Braves AAA team (86 wRC+ in 20t PAs) before opting for free agency.

Guthrie a the Phillies #25 prospect heading into last year per FanGraphs:



https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philadelphia-phillies-top-33-prospects-2023/

He is listed as a SS, but is actually an OF primarily.

Last year at all stops & levels:

LF - 41 games
CF - 40 games
RF - 16 games
3B - 2 games
SS - 2 games
2B - 1 game

View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss_mlb/status/1755302455552729464

View: https://twitter.com/ggeiss_mlb/status/1755299413407219801

 

[JM3]

Max Castillo was also claimed.

View: https://twitter.com/ScottLauber/status/1755321628219580780

 

[JM3]

Twins had a busy day, including claiming Zack Weiss.

View: https://twitter.com/DanHayesMLB/status/1755309761971589264

View: https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1755310236187902062

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1755311208645755152

 

[JM3]

We apparently were heavily scouting the MAAC.

March 25, 2023: Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's

W: Matt Duffy, L: Cooper Adams

Duffy: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Adams: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 12 K

Canisius defeated Mount St. Mary's, 15-1. Both of these pitchers are now members of the Red Sox organization.

View: https://twitter.com/brendan_camp/status/1755388924627665291

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/mikemayer22/status/1755600938730201215


Fulmer is out for the year with a UCL, so assume it's a 2 year MLFA deal.

02/02/24	RHP Michael Fulmer assigned to Worcester Red Sox.
02/02/24	Boston Red Sox signed free agent RHP Michael Fulmer to a minor league contract.

 

[JM3]

Fulmer, a 6'3 righty who was the 44th pick in 2011 and turns 31 in March, started his MLB career in Detroit in 2016 as a starter, putting up 3.1 & 3.6 fWAR seasons in his 1st 2 seasons. He had 2 less successful seasons as a starter & was moved to the bullpen in '21. He had 2 pretty successful seasons as a reliever (2.97 & 3.39 ERAs) before struggling with control with the Cubs last year (career high 4.4 bb/9, 4.42 ERA), & undergoing UCL surgery this October.

Breslow & he must have seen enough in each other to want to run it back in his rehab year. Fulmer featured a very effective sweeper last year & had a lot of red on his Savant page with the exception of bb (11th percentile).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/michael-fulmer-605242?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[JM3]

Side note - hopefully they have a deal in place with Brandon Woodruff so they can do similar rehab stuff & be contributors in '25 & beyond. Woodruff will need a MLB deal, but on the 14th you can start adding people to the 60-day DL without using a 40-man spot, so maybe something can get done soon.

 

[JM3]

Cotillo confirms it's a 2-year MiLB deal.

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1755624021981274414

& the details:

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1755626624467251224

 

[simplicio]

Side note - hopefully they have a deal in place with Brandon Woodruff so they can do similar rehab stuff & be contributors in '25 & beyond. Woodruff will need a MLB deal, but on the 14th you can start adding people to the 60-day DL without using a 40-man spot, so maybe something can get done soon.

Woodruff's capsule tear isn't nearly as likely to heal successfully as a UCL.

 

[JM3]

Woodruff's capsule tear isn't nearly as likely to heal successfully as a UCL.

Eh, the studies seem pretty positive on the surgery:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9978988/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30883189/

& the risk would presumably be baked into any contract. & the upside of Woodruff & Fulmer isn't comparable - Woodruff is a starter with a career 3.10 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 10.4 k/9, 2.3 bb/9 who turns 31 on Saturday. You're really setting yourself up nicely for the future if you can acquire him at a reasonable rate now while you are assuming some of that risk - which you can easily financially afford.

 

[jim_vh]

. You're really setting yourself up nicely for the future if you can acquire him at a reasonable rate now while you are assuming some of that risk - which you can easily financially afford.

it didn't work out that way with Paxton. Once he gets to free agency all bets are off and we have paid him to recover and rehab for one season of service.

 

[JM3]

it didn't work out that way with Paxton. Once he gets to free agency all bets are off and we have paid him to recover and rehab for one season of service.

Paxton had last pitched more than a few innings in 2019 when we signed him. & he was paid $10m for 1 fWAR, which according to FanGraphs had a value of $8.3m. So we did ok on that. Woodruff pitched well as recently as last season & had a better prime than Paxton, & is 4 years younger (so 2 years younger when they would be acquiring him). The 2 cases aren't particularly comparable, & like I said, even Paxton worked out ~fine.

I am also not advocating that we sign him to a 1-year contract. Paxton was expected to be ready toward the end of '22, which is why his deal was structured that way with the team & player options for the next couple years. Woodruff is expected to miss the entire year so his contract would almost certainly be for 2 years + options.

 

[simplicio]

Eh, the studies seem pretty positive on the surgery:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9978988/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30883189/

& the risk would presumably be baked into any contract. & the upside of Woodruff & Fulmer isn't comparable - Woodruff is a starter with a career 3.10 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 10.4 k/9, 2.3 bb/9 who turns 31 on Saturday. You're really setting yourself up nicely for the future if you can acquire him at a reasonable rate now while you are assuming some of that risk - which you can easily financially afford.

Capsule repair is apparently way easier to recover from at 20 than 30. Julio Urias had it done at 20 and came back fine, but seemingly all the 30 year old guys that have had it done have been severely impacted after returning to baseball (Johan Santana is the poster child for poor outcomes).

 

[Fred not Lynn]

We apparently were heavily scouting the MAAC.



View: https://twitter.com/brendan_camp/status/1755388924627665291

In defense of Adams, it was 2-1 when he left the game. The Mount St Mary’s bullpen appears to have struggled somewhat…

(I guess it could have been 2-0…anyway, he gave his team a chance to win. Mt St Mary’s has actually been getting better though. I’ve seen an extended road trip where their only win was a no-hitter. For the opponent)