2024 Red Sox: Better, Worse, or About the Same?

[BaseballJones]

Optimistic me:
- Offense is just as good or better, especially with Grissom and an improved Casas.
- Defense is MUCH improved, which helps the pitching.
- Bullpen is solid, and will add plus arms like Fitts during the season.
- Rotation is better because (1) Pivetta truly figured something out last year, (2) Houck with improved velocity becomes a plus starter, (3) Bello takes the next big step towards being an ace, and (4) Crawford turns out to be pretty good and gives them more positive innings than last year.

Pessimistic me:
- Story has another injury-plagued season and continues to struggle with off speed stuff down and away.
- Casas ultimately becomes a total stud but in 2024 takes a step back as the league adjusts.
- Duran's 2023 was a mirage and he goes back to being not so good.
- Defense is fine but not great.
- Offense on the whole isn't nearly as good as last year.
- Bullpen struggles as Jansen is unmotivated, Whitlock and Houck's move to the rotation weakens the pen, and nobody else steps up.
- Rotation is a catastrophe as Bello does ok, Pivetta goes back to being bad Pivetta, and the other guys struggle.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Better, in part because I'm always optimistic in Spring, and in part because I believe it. 86ish wins.

 

[Rasputin]

Before Giolito exploded, I was pretty solidly in the "better" camp. Now I'm skeptical. I think we're going to finish in the big muddle in the middle and I just hope it's at the top and we can maybe eke into a wild card.

To me, this season is all about Bello, Casas, Rafaela, Duran, Anthony, Teel, and Mayer. In a perfect world, Bello and Casas take a step forward, Rafaela and Duran convince us they're major leaguers, and Anthony, Teel, and Mayer have promising septembers.

If that happens, and we pick up a legitimately great pitcher in the off season, I think we're going to be an incredibly dangerous team in 2025.

But there's a lot of time betwixt now and then and it's pretty rare that everything goes right.

 

[8slim]

Baseball is one of the few places I allow myself to be optimistic.

...

Now, logically, I know all of that won't happen, and that it's as likely that everything falls apart, but why indulge in gloom...

But why not be optimistic for now? I have zero control over what the team is and there’s a good cluster of players that could be borderline Allstars. I’ll live in my dumb optimism for now

A thought about optimism...

I don't begrudge you guys your optimism one bit. Life is short, so if that makes you happy, go for it.

I will say that just because my logical brain thinks this team is most likely to be a 74-76 win team doesn't mean I'm rooting for that outcome. I'm rooting like hell that we win 90+ games and my pre-season posts reveal me to be the fool I surely am.

I take exception to the notion that some of us who are predicting that the season won't turn out too well are "indulging in gloom". Personally, I'm merely making a prediction. Come Opening Day I'll be hoping like hell we do well.

 

[WheresDewey]

This team has a lot of variance. It's not hard to see them get better with natural improvement from Casa, Bello, etc and better health. It's also not hard to see them being worse with the lack of pitchers added, the injury bug already biting and steps backwards instead of forwards by multiple players.

I choose to be optimistic.

 

[HfxBob]

edit- I was not bullish on Giolito so don’t think his injury changes anything and may even create an opportunity to gain a few wins. Add Montgomery and they’re a 88 win team

Your take on the loss of Giolito epitomizes the optimism of spring.

 

[Fishy1]

A thought about optimism...

I don't begrudge you guys your optimism one bit. Life is short, so if that makes you happy, go for it.

I will say that just because my logical brain thinks this team is most likely to be a 74-76 win team doesn't mean I'm rooting for that outcome. I'm rooting like hell that we win 90+ games and my pre-season posts reveal me to be the fool I surely am.

I take exception to the notion that some of us who are predicting that the season won't turn out too well are "indulging in gloom". Personally, I'm merely making a prediction. Come Opening Day I'll be hoping like hell we do well.

Try not to take it too personally, if you can. I was mostly just trying to turn a nice phrase.

Or take it personally, if you want to, actually. Whatever works for you.

 

[8slim]

Try not to take it too personally, if you can. I was mostly just trying to turn a nice phrase.

Or take it personally, if you want to, actually. Whatever works for you.

I didn't really take it personally, "take exception" was a turn of phrase as well.

Just trying to counter the notion that some folks enjoy being down on our chances this season. I guess a few enjoy it, but most don't.

 

[donutogre]

A thought about optimism...

I don't begrudge you guys your optimism one bit. Life is short, so if that makes you happy, go for it.

I will say that just because my logical brain thinks this team is most likely to be a 74-76 win team doesn't mean I'm rooting for that outcome. I'm rooting like hell that we win 90+ games and my pre-season posts reveal me to be the fool I surely am.

I take exception to the notion that some of us who are predicting that the season won't turn out too well are "indulging in gloom". Personally, I'm merely making a prediction. Come Opening Day I'll be hoping like hell we do well.

This is well said. I really want the Sox to do well, and it would be cool to see a bunch of these players take big steps forward and push them into the conversation in a big way. I just don't think it's super likely. The pitching just feels too thin. I'm really excited about the improved defense, and I'm excited to see what Bello and Crawford do... they're the most exciting new pitchers we've had in a while. I also love how Pivetta stepped up last year after his rough start, and I hope he keeps it going. If all three of these guys continue to improve, things could get really interesting. Shit, maybe I'm talking myself into 80+ wins rather than the 76-ish I'm feeling. It's certainly more fun to feel that way, anyway... but after two really gross seasons, I need to see something from this crew before I go all in. Fingers crossed!

 

[HfxBob]

I didn't really take it personally, "take exception" was a turn of phrase as well.

Just trying to counter the notion that some folks enjoy being down on our chances this season. I guess a few enjoy it, but most don't.

Arguably, the rational fan looks at the consensus projections as the most reliable indicator of the team's chances and recognizes that their own evaluations are worthless and based on nothing but blind hunches and emotion.

My general take is that when it comes to sports: a) predictions are stupid; b) wagering is even stupider, but at least it gets the adrenaline flowing.

 

[JMDurron]

Can someone explain the reason to expect better defense this season? Because as I understand it, none of 3B, 2B, or 1B are expected to be plus defenders, and our SS is injury-prone with an arm that might be more 2B-ready at this stage in his career.

I’d feel better about the above if our main starting pitcher to feel actual excitement about wasn’t a GB pitcher (Bello), but I see a plus offensive IF with substantial defensive downside, even if healthy. And the most important defensive spot on the IF is the most injury-prone of the group. OF defense improving a bit I can see, but what am I missing here?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Can someone explain the reason to expect better defense this season? Because as I understand it, none of 3B, 2B, or 1B are expected to be plus defenders, and our SS is injury-prone with an arm that might be more 2B-ready at this stage in his career.

I’d feel better about the above if our main starting pitcher to feel actual excitement about wasn’t a GB pitcher (Bello), but I see a plus offensive IF with substantial defensive downside, even if healthy. And the most important defensive spot on the IF is the most injury-prone of the group. OF defense improving a bit I can see, but what am I missing here?

Story's not as much a risk as you're making out and is clearly a plus defender. Grissom should be an above average second baseman, given his work in the minors. Casas is an unknown, but he knows he needs to improve, and wasn't considered bad in the minors. Devers, OTOH, may be what he is. But I guess even marginal improvements would move him from awful to passible. Further we have actual SS depth with Rafaela, and adequate backup coverage with Reyes (who was not on the team all season last year.)

So yes, better, just with Story and Grissom alone.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Can someone explain the reason to expect better defense this season? Because as I understand it, none of 3B, 2B, or 1B are expected to be plus defenders, and our SS is injury-prone with an arm that might be more 2B-ready at this stage in his career.

I’d feel better about the above if our main starting pitcher to feel actual excitement about wasn’t a GB pitcher (Bello), but I see a plus offensive IF with substantial defensive downside, even if healthy. And the most important defensive spot on the IF is the most injury-prone of the group. OF defense improving a bit I can see, but what am I missing here?

The injury-prone thing has been argued to death, but I will say that Story’s arm has been great since the surgery

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Can someone explain the reason to expect better defense this season? Because as I understand it, none of 3B, 2B, or 1B are expected to be plus defenders, and our SS is injury-prone with an arm that might be more 2B-ready at this stage in his career.

I’d feel better about the above if our main starting pitcher to feel actual excitement about wasn’t a GB pitcher (Bello), but I see a plus offensive IF with substantial defensive downside, even if healthy. And the most important defensive spot on the IF is the most injury-prone of the group. OF defense improving a bit I can see, but what am I missing here?

Mainly because the SS and 2B defense last year were absolutely horrendous last year. Story is a really solid defensive SS and Grissom is expected to be about average. That equals a vast improvement at 2 crucial defensive positions. That alone would be a vast improvement.

If Rafaella plays a lot this year, CF defense will be much better as well. We also added O'Neill, who has won 2 Gold Gloves-- the kind of legit ones that include actual defensive stats, not the bogus ones like DH Raffy Palmiero won.

Remember that last year's defense was historically awful. If they turn out be just a little below average overall this year that would be a vast improvement. Seems realistic to expect that, with the chance that they could actually end up a little above average.

Improvement is the key word here.

 

[JMDurron]

Mainly because the SS and 2B defense last year were absolutely horrendous last year. Story is a really solid defensive SS and Grissom is expected to be about average. That equals a vast improvement at 2 crucial defensive positions. That alone would be a vast improvement.

If Rafaella plays a lot this year, CF defense will be much better as well. We also added O'Neill, who has won 2 Gold Gloves-- the kind of legit ones that include actual defensive stats, not the bogus ones like DH Raffy Palmiero won.

Remember that last year's defense was historically awful. If they turn out be just a little below average overall this year that would be a vast improvement. Seems realistic to expect that, with the chance that they could actually end up a little above average.

Improvement is the key word here.

Thanks to those who responded. I can buy the “historically awful to below average” framing in terms of improvement. So there’s something that improved this offseason!

I will believe that an aging player with preceding injury history can actually last the season when I see it happen with Story. Rooting hard for it to happen, I just don’t expect it. Which potentially impacts Rafaella, so a cascade effect from Story is my biggest worry for the defense.

May the optimistic version of reality delight us all this season.

 

[Archer1979]

About the same. The loss of Giolito doesn't really move the needle for me since i wasn't that optimistic that he would have contributed much more than providing tape measure shots to the opposition.

The younger players should improve. If not, it's going to be a LOOOOOOONNNNNGGGG season.

Infield defense is certainly better than last year's. Depends upon Story's health. Yeah, he's had some freak injuries, but after awhile you come to the conclusion that he's either cursed or his style of play is writing checks that his body can no longer cash... or both.

Losing Turner hurts, but moving Yoshida to DH can only help the OF defense.

The rotation is middle of the road or worse if you factor in the normal injuries. That all goes out the window if the Sox sign Montgomery as Bello move from the #1 starter to the #2 etc.

 

[Archer1979]

Can someone explain the reason to expect better defense this season? Because as I understand it, none of 3B, 2B, or 1B are expected to be plus defenders, and our SS is injury-prone with an arm that might be more 2B-ready at this stage in his career.

I’d feel better about the above if our main starting pitcher to feel actual excitement about wasn’t a GB pitcher (Bello), but I see a plus offensive IF with substantial defensive downside, even if healthy. And the most important defensive spot on the IF is the most injury-prone of the group. OF defense improving a bit I can see, but what am I missing here?

If you use the end of last year's roster for comparison to this year's roster, it's somewhat improved. If you use the roster that broke Spring Training last year as the comparison, it's light years ahead simply because the Sox had warm bodies in he middle of the infield up until Kike was traded and Story came back. Despite my reservation when he was injured, Story's arm looked like it held up at SS. The big issue was his bat.

 

[nvalvo]

Can someone explain the reason to expect better defense this season? Because as I understand it, none of 3B, 2B, or 1B are expected to be plus defenders, and our SS is injury-prone with an arm that might be more 2B-ready at this stage in his career.

I’d feel better about the above if our main starting pitcher to feel actual excitement about wasn’t a GB pitcher (Bello), but I see a plus offensive IF with substantial defensive downside, even if healthy. And the most important defensive spot on the IF is the most injury-prone of the group. OF defense improving a bit I can see, but what am I missing here?

Here's what I'd look at: Kiké Hernandez was -13 OAA in 551 innings; Reyes, Arroyo, and Hamilton were also below average in small samples, and only Chang and Rafaela posted positive OAA at the position for Boston before Story came back; Dalbec, hilariously, was a 0 in 8 IP. Story was +6 in 314.

So if we subtract Story's contribution from the season Red Sox SS defensive numbers, produce per-inning rates for Non-Story and Story, and extend both over an entire ~1430 IP season, that's a difference between -12 outs and +26, or about -10 runs and +20. That's A ~3-WIN DIFFERENCE just by replacing Story's defense with whatever we had laying around. Honestly, the best reason for pessimism would be if you think Story won't be able to stay on the field, but if he's healthy (and unless Devers *really* goes off with the bat), Story is likely to be our WAR leader this season.

Honestly, adding Story, Rafaela, and swapping many of Yoshida's defensive innings for O'Neill's and Valdez' for Grissom's is about as large a defensive overhaul as a team can realistically make in a single offseason (and next season, we Teel might be ready to augment our C situation).

For a team which had an 81-81 pythag in 2023, that's kind of a huge deal, even if the offense looks to be similar and the pitching personnel hasn't yet changed as much as we'd all hoped.

 

[Sin Duda]

...
For a team which had an 81-81 pythag in 2023, that's kind of a huge deal, even if the offense looks to be similar and the pitching personnel hasn't yet changed as much as we'd all hoped.

So you're saying there's a chance.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Here's what I'd look at: Kiké Hernandez was -13 OAA in 551 innings; Reyes, Arroyo, and Hamilton were also below average in small samples, and only Chang and Rafaela posted positive OAA at the position for Boston before Story came back; Dalbec, hilariously, was a 0 in 8 IP. Story was +6 in 314.

So if we subtract Story's contribution from the season Red Sox SS defensive numbers, produce per-inning rates for Non-Story and Story, and extend both over an entire ~1430 IP season, that's a difference between -12 outs and +26, or about -10 runs and +20. That's A ~3-WIN DIFFERENCE just by replacing Story's defense with whatever we had laying around. Honestly, the best reason for pessimism would be if you think Story won't be able to stay on the field, but if he's healthy (and unless Devers *really* goes off with the bat), Story is likely to be our WAR leader this season.

Honestly, adding Story, Rafaela, and swapping many of Yoshida's defensive innings for O'Neill's and Valdez' for Grissom's is about as large a defensive overhaul as a team can realistically make in a single offseason (and next season, we Teel might be ready to augment our C situation).

For a team which had an 81-81 pythag in 2023, that's kind of a huge deal, even if the offense looks to be similar and the pitching personnel hasn't yet changed as much as we'd all hoped.

Good post re: the expected defensive differences. Also, I think the Pythag significance has sort of fallen by the wayside in how people assess the team.

By that I mean it's sort of an incomplete view to look at the key offensive players we've lost (Turner/Duvall for 1000 PAs) and conclude that the team will be worse offensively. That's because we're also losing Hernandez/Arroyo/Chang/Urias/Tapia for 800 PAs. There are questions as to their replacements: Story/Grissom/O'Neill/Abreu/Rafaela?, but adequacy with a couple of high points might be a net improvement in terms of runs scored. Especially if we enjoy some health.

It's a somewhat similar story with pitching for runs allowed. If we sort by ERA+ and look at above average pitchers (SSS players excluded), we've really only lost Sale, Paxton, and Schrieber. That's 29 starts for 196 innings, and 46 relief innings. But by the same token, we're not running out Kluber for 9 starts, 6.26 ERA (and then he was worse in the pen). If we get good Pivetta, we're not going to be subject to his 8 early starts for a 6.30 ERA.

There's still a gap, but there can be significant gains by just not running drek out there. I mean, if you think Whitlock or Winckowski can mange better than a 6.3 ERA as a starter - that's an improvement. Obviously, this all turns on health as well as depth - hopefully we're not going to see 16 AAA/Opener starts (meaning, also, we're also not going to be yoinking guys into and out of the starting rotation all year.) But if we have to dip into AAA, hopefully we get a competent Fitts instead of a Baraclough or the like.

So too with the pen. Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Jacques, Walter, Brasier, Garza, and Robertson. All pitched 12-30 innings, all had an ERA above 5. Total IP: 180 (ish). Toss in Kluber and it's another 13 innings at a 9.45 ERA. Every club is going to have a guy or three who just does not work out. But let's avoid 9 of 'em.

It'll be up to Bailey and Breslow to evaluate guys, to fix and/or cut as appropriate, but there's a tremendous gain to be found in competence.