True, but they'll do that at the expense of adding other talent to the roster. And even the best rookie WRs typically take time to really get going. I don't think the Diggs move is a bad one in a vacuum, but they should have built a little more depth at that position before doing this. Maybe Kincaid will fulfill his Travis Kelce destiny but that's putting a lot of pressure on him (and banking on good health).
2024 NFL General Season News and Notes
- Thread starter Ed Hillel
- Start date
Josh Allen and the Bills are in for a rude awakening this season. You can't succeed without talent around you somewhere, and the cupboards are bare in Buffalo.
Meanwhile, Diggs is going to light it up in Houston with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz drawing attention, Joe Mixon keeping defenses honest and a whole bunch of warm weather/dome games.
If only Houston can bring in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to get Stroud over the hump, they'll be in great shape.
Meanwhile, Diggs is going to light it up in Houston with Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz drawing attention, Joe Mixon keeping defenses honest and a whole bunch of warm weather/dome games.
If only Houston can bring in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to get Stroud over the hump, they'll be in great shape.
The Bills had their best run this season when Diggs was a much smaller focus of the offense. He became too much to handle with all the chirping and the tweets, they quiet quit him in the 2nd half of the season. They won 7 of 8 before they lost to KC because they always lose to KC.
I don't know if they quiet quit him, so much as they finally fucking realized that James Cook is pretty good at football and deserved 20+ touches a game.
And if they did quiet quit him, it hurt Josh Allen more than it hurt Diggs. In the final 8 games of the season last year, it was Allen who had a completion rate of 60.39%, he averaged 235 yard per game, threw for 11tds and 9ints, and had a rating of 82.9. Now, he did run for 9 of his 15tds on the season, so there's that, I guess.
On top of that, Diggs is amazingly durable. I don't believe he's even missed a game in his Bills career. I don't give a shit how much of a diva a guy is, so long as he shows up and does his job, and Diggs does that.
A guy like Diggs, even when he's not getting the ball makes things easier for everyone else on the field. They now have nobody that does that. They are the Patriots, and I expect to see a season of Josh Allen like we saw in his first couple years unless something changes dramatically between now and September.
If the Pats plan to take a QB at #3 no matter what, that's when I'll get pissed if we find out they weren't in on Diggs for a fucking pick in the late 2nd next season (because that's where Houston's pick that just went out to Buffalo is going to land). He's the perfect guy to put around a young QB. In Houston, he's going to give Stroud so many options if his deep threats in Collins and Dell aren't open, and if Diggs is also not open, they've got Schultz as an outlet, oh and Mixon, who caught 112 passes over the last 2 seasons also.
That team is going to be so, so much fun to watch. I wish we got to see Cesario as GM in New England.
Absolutely agree with all this. I hate to say it, but if they enjoy good health and Rodgers is anywhere close to the player he's been, the Jets may reasonably be considered the favorites to win the division next season.
Diggs in N.E., even with Drake Maye, could've been a disaster, just in terms of his attitude, a team not really vying for a playoff spot. Not sure that would've been a fit.
Miami will still be pretty good, particularly in the warmer fall weather. I think Buffalo took a step back relative to the competition this year, but each of Buff, Miami and the NYJ will get their punches in. NE will be in the corner, turtled.
Disagree and it's not just about Diggs. They also lost Gabe Davis, their starting center, White, Poyer, etc.
And they don't draft until #28, then they pick #60 and don't pick again until #128.
They do not have a lot of firepower to fill holes via the draft. They did get Curtis Samuel, so I guess that's something.
This is where I'm at. They already needed at least one starting WR going into next year, and that was with Diggs on the roster. I've got a ton of other Bills fans friends that are ecstatic Diggs is gone, and I think they're going to be rethinking that excitement once they see Allen running around with no one to throw to. Kincaid is exciting, and I really like Shakir, but unless they get a good WR at 28, they're in big trouble. They are no better at any position on the roster than last year, and are worse in most of them now. I'm thinking it's going to be along season. If there's any silver lining(s), one is that at least they got rid of Diggs too early rather than too late, and also I may finally get my wish of McDermott getting canned,
The 2nd rounder is Minnesota's pick, not Houston's, so it will likely be mid-round at worst and could be top 10 if Minnesota doesn't do anything to improve on Sam Darnold at QB.
Truth. The surface level takes on Buffalo in the media this morning are actually a pretty telling reminder that few if any of these analysts are actually watching these games.
Over half of Diggs yards last year came in the first 6 games. After that and phase out that came out of the OC switch Diggs was a 51 yards a game receiver the back end 11 games of the season. Didn't clear 100 again, only cleared 75 twice, and disappeared on the field just as much as he was ever showing up in big moments.
Shakir's name popped up a lot more in big moments then Gabe Davis did as the season wore on. He'll be an upside flyer guy I'll be trying to grab in the latter rounds of all my fantasy drafts.
The backend 2/3 of last season is already telling us the Buffalo offense should be able to weather the very expensive name brand production loses. They'll sign one of the better depth guys still out there, Josh will spread the ball around more, and Kincaid will become a premium a guy in FF. They'll be just fine in a division that includes 2 of the biggest current train wrecks waiting to happen in the NFL, and a Miami team with a lot of getting over the hump question marks coming in to the season.
The national media is notoriously slow in realizing when star players have slipped, and it’s even worse with star skill players.
I'll repeat what I wrote above:
'In the final 8 games of the season last year, it was Allen who had a completion rate of 60.39%, he averaged 235 yard per game, threw for 11tds and 9ints, and had a rating of 82.9. Now, he did run for 9 of his 15tds on the season, so there's that, I guess."
In the first 34 games of his career, the only games that Josh Allen has played without Stefon Diggs, these were his numbers: 56.3comp%, 184.4ypg, 30tds, 21ints, QBR of 78.2.
There is no evidence that Josh Allen can "spread the ball around more" when you remove his #1 and his #2 receivers from the roster. You're also completely ignoring the benefit a guy like Shakir and even Kincaid get by the amount of attention that Diggs forces a defense to use to cover him. Never mind Gabe Davis to a lesser extent.
In 2021, Diggs had a total of 2 100 yard games, and none in the final 8, so this same thing could have been said about him at that time (oh wait, it was). Then in 2022, he rolled back with 108 catches, 1,429 yards and 11tds.
In those last 8 games in 2021 when Diggs was "phased out" or IMO, the defenses focused on him more, this is what Allen did: 59.87%, 225ypg, 17td, 9ints, 83.5QBR.
Anytime the Bills stopped using Diggs or defenses took Diggs away, everyone, including and most importantly, Josh Allen, struggled.
Citing Allen's first 2 years in the league without any actual acknowledgement of them being a young QB's first 2 years in the league, and the expectation realities that typically come with that, seems like an interesting hill to build that foundation claim on.
There also was indeed evidence that this offense and a less hero balling version of Josh Allen can indeed function at a level it needs to win games and their division without getting too more then fungible level production out of Diggs and Gabe Davis. Again, you just need to take a closer look at the back 2/3 of last season. Where there is not even a single mention or consideration anywhere in your take about the team making more of commitment to establish the non-Josh run game. Much less how that should otherwise be expected to impact any outlook that is going to just focus in solely on Josh's individual #'s.
But even the above aside, you realize Diggs played in every one of those final 8 games of last season, right? Why would you not cite his individual stats and how they were factoring into your 8 game equation take there if you are going to make such a highlighted point of Josh's? Are you wanting to make the claim, without actually stating it, that we should simply dimiss that drop off entirely on the supposed basis that is was due strictly to Diggs constantly drawing increasingly unbeatable double coverages from opposing defenses?
It was CJ Stroud's first year this past season. Is he just better than Allen? Joe Burrow's 2nd season was pretty fucking awesome. Mahomes first season as a starter, had 50tds'. Purdy's first season as a starter, he led the NFL in a half dozen stats including rating and QBR. Hurts 2nd full season as a starter? Tua?
What's the key to all of these guys going from middling QB's to top 5-10 in the league? It's weapons to throw to. Josh Allen is no different. There is no evidence, none whatsoever, that Josh Allen (or really anyone not named Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes) can put up top 5 numbers in today's NFL without a receiving corps.
There is also no evidence that Josh Allen is capable of not "hero balling" whenever he can't find someone. When Diggs disappears (as you claim), Allen has been an average quarterback. That's the reality of it. Can they win games? Sure, Mac Jones won 10 games as a rookie too, what's that get you?
And I did note the running game in my first post above, didn't realize I had to quote the whole thing. The first sentence "I don't know if they quiet quit [Diggs], so much as they finally fucking realized that James Cook is pretty good at football and deserved 20+ touches a game." But once again, you assume defenses who had to account for Diggs and Davis will now not flood the box to eliminate Cook and Josh Allen's running. As Pats fans who paid attention the last 3 years can tell you, they absolutely can, and they will. And I have no idea where you get the idea that they committed to a non-Josh run game. In the first 9 games last season, Allen had a total of 44 rushes for 233 yards and 6tds. In the last 8 games, where he couldn't get the ball to Diggs, he had 67 rushes for 291 and 9tds. In the last 2 games of the season, and the 2 playoff games, he had 46 rushes for 257 yards and 5tds. When the passing gets tough, Allen runs. And Allen takes beatings. If he keeps that up for an entire season without Diggs, don't be surprised if he gets hurt, or puts the ball on the ground at a crazy rate like he did early in his career.
As to the bolded, I think am pretty clearly making that exact claim. Stefon Diggs had basically the same 2nd half of 2023 as he had in the 2nd half of 2021. The end result of both of those seasons was 11-6. The result of his other 2 seasons were 13-3. Going away from Diggs, or not being able to get him the ball made the Bills a worse team. Removing Diggs entirely from the offense will make everyone else worse. Josh Allen, when Diggs isn't Diggs, has never played like a top 5 QB in the NFL, and the Bills need Josh Allen to be a top 5 QB in the NFL.
Are we really pretending Nico Collins is a weapon who elevated Stroud? He didn't even hit 500 yards in either of his first 2 seasons, Stroud transformed his career, not the other way around.
He is not the perfect guy to put around a young QB. Have you seen his behavior at his last two stops?
I doubt he would have wanted to go to New England, and I'm not sure if his restructure last year kicked in a no-trade clause (which he could waive). I'm not sure they could have gotten him, but I would have liked them to at least have kicked the tires and frankly, I don't think the Bills are looking at the Pats as a threat in the AFC East any time soon.
Are we pretending that Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz didn't exist? Because if you didn't notice, when CJ Stroud was lighting the world on fire the first 10-11 games of the season, both of those guys were on the field too. Then Dell got hurt. What happened to Stroud's stats thereafter?
Those are not #1 WRs, Schultz is a decent but not spectacular TE and Dell was a mid-round rookie.
Post week 11 his stats (outside the Jets game, which was by far the best D he faced) look about the same as they did earlier in the year, Week 17 and the first playoff game were two of his best of the season.
If the team goes 48-18 over 4 seasons, and the star receiver goes for 445 receptions, 5,372 yards and 37tds, while being named to 4 pro bowls and 2 time All-Pro, I don't care if that receiver takes a morning shit on the coaches desk every day before practice. I've said it more times than I can count, I care about results on the field. I don't care what talk radio is saying, or what narratives talking heads are pushing, and I'm guessing Josh Allen in his 3rd-6th seasons really liked having a guy like Diggs to throw the ball to...I'm sure Stroud will enjoy it too. I don't think Tua is ready to run the piece of shit Tyreek Hill out of town any time soon either.
This isn't Antonio Brown, who in addition to being a piece of shit, couldn't keep his ass on the field for the final 3 seasons. If Diggs turns into that guy, then no doubt, but he's nothing like that as a player at the moment.
Tank Dell isn't a #1 because of where he got drafted? Tyreek Hill was drafted in the 5th round. Is he not a #1? What's the cutoff to being a #1? How many years does a third rounder have to play before he's allowed to be a #1, because apparently Nico Collinsj doesn't count as one, neither does Tank Dell? Puka Nacua should probably take WR #3 money when he's done with his rookie deal because he was drafted in the 5th? Cooper Kupp, #1 or not? Schultz was 12th in receiving yards among tight ends, 11th in receving yards per game and tied for 7th in touchdowns among tight ends last season, despite missing 2 games. He's not spectacular, but he sure as hell is better than "decent." You're the guy who has tried to convince me that Hunter Henry is good. You want to compare those two?
Getting back to Stroud. Dell played 10 games last year, had 47 catches, 709 yards and 7tds. I watched those games. Here's some highlights below showing Dell getting wide open, or coming back for balls, or making plays with his feet. This is a #1 in today's NFL:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD-HsSd3XyI
And if Dell isn't a #1, then this guy most definitely is now:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft2qwFkTBv8
So you don't care about aging curves at all, the fact that Diggs forcing a QB to feed him when that would actually stunt the Rookie's development, also forcing a rookie QB to answer for him every time he sounds off on twitter... I'm all for getting a good receiver in house, but how about we get one who's actually in their prime as opposed to on the verge of being out of the league?
Again, no love on this board for Bobby Slowik.
Book this. A year from now he's going to start being a wet dream coaching replacement we''ll be hearing plenty about from every team's media outlets that are scrambling for answers on offense.
What evidence is there that a guy like Diggs has ever stunted a rookie's development? I hear a lot of talk about stuff like this, but does it actually happen in reality?
Again, I'm not even saying the Pats should have gotten him, I'm saying they should absolutely have been involved if the going rate is a 2nd round pick for a guy that produces. DeAndre Hopkins looked to be on the verge of being out of the league, and then he goes to Tennessee and looks ok. Adam Thielen just had over 100 catches and 1,000 yards at age 33 catching balls in the Bryce Young offense in Carolina. Amari Cooper just had 72 catches for 1,250 yards catching balls from 5 different starting QB's in Cleveland. He's about 200 days younger than Stefon Diggs. Mike Evans just had 79 catches and 1,255 yards and an NFL leading 13tds, and he's, checks notes, older than Diggs.
A lot of narratives take shape around here that aren't necessarily true for every player. If folks think Diggs is done, I've got no issue with that, but I haven't seen it yet, and I believe he's going to go off in Houston, and Nick Cesario doesn't apparently think he's going to be a problem for his young quarterback. I'll choose to believe what he thinks over whatever is happening on Elon Musk's website.
We can keep saying things like "I'm all for getting a good receiver." I'm all for it.
At some point, they need to actually do it, or at least try to do it. If it works out, great. If it doesn't, it doesn't, but if we expect a young quarterback to come to this team (or Jacoby Brissett for that matter) to have success throwing to a 29 year old Kendrick Bourne (because at 30, his legs are going to fall off) or a 29 year old Hunter Henry, or a 6th rounder who keeps getting his head knocked off in Pop Douglas, we're all fooling ourselves.
But the players themselves know it (even if they dont acknowledge it). I dont have the charts to back it up, but it seems that all the sideshow - chirping, dirty play, being a shitty teammate, attention-whoring -- increase with slippage.
The point was that coming into the year he was a mid-round rookie, not some guy that was established and we should credit with elevating Stroud rather than the other way around, but also.. he was the #2 in HOU, he had a lower route run% than Collins and a lower target rate.
Schultz is good, he's solid, he's a similar player to Henry over the last few years, though Henry is now declining, he's not one of the top TEs in the league, none of these guys are the reason Stroud was so good last year, he was outstanding and he elevated guys like Collins (and likely Dell but no way to tell given both had no history). There is this weird tendency to credit supporting players who have good seasons with the success of the QB, when we've seen time and time again that WR/TE are more dependent on the QB than the other way around. QBs are most dependent on their O-line. Tunsil and company are probably a better case for why Stroud had the success he did than his WR/TE group.
I mean if Josh Allen had got drafted into SF like Purdy he probably imo ends up being universally deemed as the best QB in football today ahead of even Mahomes, and is already in the all time great discussion. But like in draft threads I also get that I'm kinda out on an island here with the belief that the surrounding situation a QB gets drafted into can at times be equally impactful as which of the QB prospects a team ends up taking.
You sum up Buffalo coming down the stretch as if they were some crap team with the Diggs being phased out. Never mind the 26.5 pts a game they were scoring, and which was EXACTLY what their 17 game average (6th best in the NFL) for the year ended up being btw. Forget we watched them and that offense have to win out those last 5 straight games to make the playoffs. Which included tough matchups vs KC, Dallas, and Miami in a play in game. I mean...seems to be a lot of cherry picking within how and where you want to value any winning that is going on imo.
There is going to be no constantly stacked boxes in Buffalo next year man. I'll take the next 2-3 year production over on Kincaid vs a 30yo Diggs. I'll also do the same on Shakir over Gabe Davis and who lands in my top 3 most overpaid JAGs of the winter.
I honestly have no idea how he didn't get an offer this season. I thought he met with like a half dozen teams, and his experience coming out of Shanahan's system is clear as day when you watch what they're doing in Houston.
What makes this trade palatable to consider is that the pick is in 2025, so no one punting on this, by all accounts, transcendent WR class. But I do think it's unlikely Diggs would be very excited to play in a rebuilding situation at this point in his career.
Dude, just watch the tape on Collins and Dell and Schultz. I love Stroud, but don't tell me these guys aren't a fucking huge reason he was successful. They're literally running free all over the field. And as you mentioned, Stroud is getting a ton of time back there in the pocket to allow long routes to develop. Collins was 6th in the NFL among WR's in YAC, he was #4 in the NFL in plays over 20 yards (behind Tyreek, Aiyuk and Lamb) and tied with Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore and Nacua. Dell was on pace for the same type of numbers. Collins had 16 broken tackles last season as a receiver. To put that in perspective, Deebo Samuel had 13 as a receiver, and 4 as a runner. Rhamondre Stevenson had 15 total as a receiver and as a runner.
Collins is a beast, Dell is a burner, Schultz is as solid as they get (and unlike Henry, is also a top 5-7 run blocker in the NFL at tight end), and they're adding Mixon and Stefon Diggs? That's the definition of building around a young QB.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1775976853355823323
1 year deal for Diggs, feel like Allen was a better value at that price, but I guess injury concerns
1 year deal for Diggs, feel like Allen was a better value at that price, but I guess injury concerns
You certainly aren't on an island. I'm the guy who also believes college statistics among QB's almost don't even matter, and folks don't take coaching and system into account enough when evaluating QB's. But you can't drop a QB into a shitty situation and expect results. However, if you do drop them into a shitty situation (like Josh Allen, like Hurts, like Tua, like Bryce Young now, like Burrow), you better immediately start building around them, or you end up nowhere. The Bills, Eagles, Dolphins, etc. all recognized it and immediately went and got significant help and saw pretty immediate results. Teams like Green Bay and Kansas City were fortunate enough to have good enough QB's on the roster that they could sit their young QB's and build the team while they were waiting in the wings.
The Pats had so much money this offseason, a shot at a franchise QB in the draft, and have, IMO, done very little to help that QB walk into a good situation. Maybe they have other plans, maybe they just play Jacoby and go 4-13 again and then build around the young QB they draft in 2024 next offseason. The rebuild is just getting longer and it's frustrating, because in the NFL, it really doesn't need to.
I'm not saying the Bills sucked down the stretch last year. I'm saying Josh Allen's passing was below average whenever Diggs was uninvolved. You can blame it on Diggs being a malcontent, I can blame it on Diggs being taken away by the defense, but in those 5 games you mention at the end of the season, Allen completed 61.6% of his passes, threw 5tds, 5ints, and had a QB rating of 81.8%. They won, in large part, because he decided to tuck it and run when he couldn't find Diggs (the top 3 rushing attempt games of the season fell in those 5 games for Allen) and he ran 49 times for 182 yards and 6tds. If Bills fans are content with Josh Allen completing 61% of his passes, having a 1:1 TD/Int rate, but he runs the ball almost 200 times, then so be it. I don't think that's a recipe for long term success for Buffalo.
Houston also gets a pick if he leaves after the season, don't they?
That deal is perfect for Houston. Contract year Diggs...They're going to be a wagon on offense.
depends on the comp formula, where he signs, who HOU signs, etc. On the one hand it's probably good, I would not want the age 32-34 seasons of Diggs with him holding out for a new deal every summer, but at the same time, you could have had Keenan Allen, whose skillset I think fits just as well, and has the same comp upside for a lesser pick. Still, HOU is trying to make an all-in push this year, so it makes some sense either way for them, they want to get as much as they can out of this year.
Hypothetically it means you gave up more for less, on the other hand, no way Diggs was going to not want a new deal either way, making it a true "prove it" year is probably good for them, only way he was going to not hold out and be a PITA after this year without a new deal would be if he had a terrible year or an injury.
How do you know they weren't involved (whatever that means)?
And do you notice any similarities between the the guys you list and Stefon Diggs? They're all big, non-elusive receivers who don't need speed to succeed. That ages much better than someone like Diggs who needs his athleticism to survive.
The only actually good receiver who's older than him with a similar body type is Tyler Lockett, and I'm skeptical he's long for the league (though he could stick around longer than Diggs because he's a good teammate). Receivers like Diggs fall off a cliff fast - we should know that from 20 years of BB signing formerly great receivers who couldn't even make it out of camp. Diggs makes sense for a Houston team that can legitimately contend for a super bowl NOW, not a team with no idea who it's QB is going to be when the season starts.
Holy shit, are we moving goalposts or what?
Now, it's the body type, not the age, got it.
If you think Mike Evans, who consistently ranks at the top of the NFL in average depth of target doesn't need speed to succeed, we're not even watching the same sport. Dude is the prototypical "go route" runner. And he has about as much in common with Adam Thielen as I do. Theilen hasn't had a season in the past 3 years where his average depth of target was higher than 9.5, and it was 7.5 last year. Mike Evans hasn't had a season below 12.1 and last season was 14.0. They have NOTHING in common as receivers, but apparently, they are some kind of unicorns with talent and a body type that Diggs doesn't possess?
But you want to know who has the exact same body type as Stefon Diggs. Marvin Harrison, he caught 95 balls for 1,366 yards and 13tds at age 33. Diggs is listed at 6'0, 191 pounds. Jerry Rice was 6'2, 200 pounds. Do I need to point out his numbers? Edelman was 5'10, 198 pounds, does he not count throwing up huge numbers after age 30? Torry Holt was 6'0, 200 pounds, had back to back 93 catch, 1,200 yard seasons at age 30 and 31. Isaac Bruce, 6'0, 188 pounds, caught 89 passes for 1,292 yards at age 32, and then had another 74 for 1,098 yards at age 34. Tim Brown was 6'0, 195 pounds and he was still catching 81 passes at age 36. Has Adams at 6'1 fallen off a cliff yet at age 31? Shit, Antonio Brown had almost 1,300 yards and 15tds at age 30 and would probably still be putting up numbers if he didn't turn into a lunatic.
I could go on and on, but the idea that there is some magical age in which guys fall off a cliff because of their body type is some new fangled shit. Guys get hurt, guys go crazy, but you can't distill anything down to some "well, he turned 30, and he's exactly 6 feet tall and weighs exactly 194 pounds and the last time that happened, the guy sucked...." theory.
I'm saying different body types age differently - that's not moving the goalpost, it's a self obvious statement that is basically true across all sports.
I saw something yesterday about Diggs being cuttable for no dead cap after this year. My guess is he started whining about that and wanted a redone contract or FA, lowering his trade value. Bills balked at adjusting the contract, Houston did not and it was technically part of the trade to do so.