2024 Mock Drafts are more fun than this boring, awful Patriots Team

Cellar-Door

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I find it amusing that PFF charges for everything in their mocks and they have by far the worst simulation.
 

Devizier

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Looking at the drafts posted, I feel like the randomness is too evenly distributed. I would imagine that the variance in picks is pretty low for first rounders and very high for every round after.

Barring injury, we probably aren't seeing too many quarterbacks slide around that much in the first. I would be very surprised at this point if we don't see Williams-Maye go 1-2 at least.
 

Devizier

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As an aside, I pulled this mock from Walter Football, just a datapoint, but a lot of guys are going to go higher than these mocks have them right now. Especially the tackles.
 

Cellar-Door

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As an aside, I pulled this mock from Walter Football, just a datapoint, but a lot of guys are going to go higher than these mocks have them right now. Especially the tackles.
yeah Brugler has 8 tackles going 1st round in his mock too, I think we could get one of the top 8 or 9 at the top of the 2nd, but that's about it, tackles are gonna fly.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I forget whom but one of SMU or Nomario mentioned it earlier in the season - the draft projections (and I know they cannot project the actual draft spots yet) are all highly suspect. Some of the data they are relying on is older as are some of the grading etc and individual teams obviously have their own methods of evaluation.

For example, I know that many boards have had Nabers higher than Odunze all fall but if you listen to some of the evaluators that has flipped (McElroy said as much for his own board during the Sugar Bowl on Monday evening). To be clear, I am not arguing that this should be the case - just that what's publicly available may not represent the current thinking around football and, more importantly, in NFL draft rooms.
 

ehaz

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I forget whom but one of SMU or Nomario mentioned it earlier in the season - the draft projections (and I know they cannot project the actual draft spots yet) are all highly suspect. Some of the data they are relying on is older as are some of the grading etc and individual teams obviously have their own methods of evaluation.

For example, I know that many boards have had Nabers higher than Odunze all fall but if you listen to some of the evaluators that has flipped (McElroy said as much for his own board during the Sugar Bowl on Monday evening). To be clear, I am not arguing that this should be the case - just that what's publicly available may not represent the current thinking around football and, more importantly, in NFL draft rooms.
Speaking of which, Allbright just tweeted that based on his conversations he now thinks the majority of NFL teams view Jayden Daniels as QB2 over Drake Maye.

View: https://twitter.com/allbrightnfl/status/1743034373908189379?s=46
 

Jimbodandy

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yeah Brugler has 8 tackles going 1st round in his mock too, I think we could get one of the top 8 or 9 at the top of the 2nd, but that's about it, tackles are gonna fly.
I'd be curious about how many starting tackles Brugler and other experts have in this draft. I think that one can make a case for a dozen, maybe more. Draft is super deep in tackle, perhaps more than any other position. Not studs all the way to round 3, but guys who can play tackle in the NFL without shitting themselves.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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I'd be curious about how many starting tackles Brugler and other experts have in this draft. I think that one can make a case for a dozen, maybe more. Draft is super deep in tackle, perhaps more than any other position. Not studs all the way to round 3, but guys who can play tackle in the NFL without shitting themselves.
a dozen seems optimistic. A couple of these guys are likely to kick inside and half (or more) will flop or be stop gap quality players. I think 5 above average NFL starters is optimistic but closer to the realistic ceiling.

12 guys drafted with “starting potential” seems reasonable though. It’s as good of a tackle class as we’ve seen in the last decade and far deeper than last year.
 

Cellar-Door

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Is he a move TE (in name only) as a pro? Like Gesicki? We haven't shown much ability to utilize or develop those guys recently. He does have some intriguing physical traits.
He's gonna run a 4.4 something 40 and got 2nd or early 3rd is my guess. Despite the height he's a WR I don't think he's ever played in-line
 

DJnVa

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Just having fun with trade downs--basically accepted any deal that included a pick in the 2025 draft.

4. Michael Penix Jr. QB Washington
55. Roman Wilson WR Michigan
87. D.J. James CB Auburn
99. Johnny Wilson WR Florida State
102. Jonah Elliss EDGE Utah
123. Jordan Burch EDGE Oregon
130. Donovan Edwards RB Michigan
139. Payton Wilson LB NC State
143. Sataoa Laumea OT Utah
174. Keith Randolph Jr. DT Illinois
203. McCallan Castles TE Tennessee
  • 2025 ATL 1st
  • 2025 HOU 2nd
  • 2025 DAL 2nd
  • 2025 SEA 2nd
  • 2025 LAR 2nd
  • 2025 NO 2nd
  • 2025 LAC 3rd
  • 2025 TEN 3rd
  • 2025 NO 3rd
  • 2025 NO 4th
  • 2025 NO 5th
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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I'm sure the real draft wouldn't play out anything at all like the mocks I run for fun, but my favorite approach if I pretend that the Pats don't like any of the top 3 QBs is to trade back twice, first to 7 or 8, and then to the mid 20s. This always results in at least one of McCarthy, Penix, or Nix with the 1st pick plus a couple of early picks in 2025, and a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders in 2024 to use on one of the Guyton/Morgan/Paul tier of OT, plus multiple shots at WR/TE/RB/CB based on who's remaining as it plays out.
 

Bowser

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Trade down if you don't like QB3 vs take QB3?

View attachment 76842 View attachment 76843
Draft 1: Love Alt. Keon Coleman at 37? That's a steal. And I get the shade thrown at Nix, but after the Mac Zappe experience, I'd happily tolerate an athletic QB with an arm in Round 2.

Draft 2: Huge fan of Mims, and Fisher is interesting. He actually started over Alt at LT initially as a true freshman, then got hurt and came back as a RT. Loads of talent but never put it together.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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  • 3.
    Caleb Williams
    QB USC
  • 34.
    Xavier Legette
    WR South Carolina
  • 68.
    Blake Fisher
    OT Notre Dame
  • 103.
    Devontez Walker
    WR North Carolina

I just did four-round on lightning fast. Thoughts on the last three?
 

BuellMiller

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I wonder how much extra benefit getting Devontez Walker along with Maye at 3 since they would presumably already have some chemistry together.
 

Cellar-Door

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Basically my ideal way for 2nd and 3rd to fall, Guyton the highest of high upside left tackles, Corley is a big time YAC guy.
 

Jimbodandy

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View attachment 77105
Basically my ideal way for 2nd and 3rd to fall, Guyton the highest of high upside left tackles, Corley is a big time YAC guy.
My mocks look kind of like this, but taking Legette/Worthy/Franklin in Rd2 and either the Yale or ND tackles in Rd3. Do folks see the latter two as not having high upside?

I'm torn between making sure that we get a pure X and a legit starting OT, if not 2. Seems like you did that here with Corley, but I worry that most of the Xs will generally be gone by 68.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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My mocks look kind of like this, but taking Legette/Worthy/Franklin in Rd2 and either the Yale or ND tackles in Rd3. Do folks see the latter two as not having high upside?

I'm torn between making sure that we get a pure X and a legit starting OT, if not 2. Seems like you did that here with Corley, but I worry that most of the Xs will generally be gone by 68.
With the real possibility of losing both starting tackles to FA my preference would be to take the higher ranked OT in round 2 and maybe even round 3 and wait until the later rounds for the WR. This will likely be at least a 2 year rebuild because they need help at the 3 most important offensive positions and losing Onwenu makes the O line a bigger priority for 2024. Ideally I'd love for the Pats to trade down a few spots for the QB and grab an extra 2nd or 3rd and be able to go QB OT OT WR, but the way things are trending I don't think Daniels will be around if the Pats don't grab him (or Maye) at 3. If they can get Onwenu back on a long term deal or even a 1 year tag then that opens up the draft board.
 

Cellar-Door

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My mocks look kind of like this, but taking Legette/Worthy/Franklin in Rd2 and either the Yale or ND tackles in Rd3. Do folks see the latter two as not having high upside?

I'm torn between making sure that we get a pure X and a legit starting OT, if not 2. Seems like you did that here with Corley, but I worry that most of the Xs will generally be gone by 68.
Kid from Yale I think will be gone by 68, ND tackle I haven't seen much of, but I don't think he's in that tier from what I've heard.

In terms of an X... depends how you view guys X vs. Z.

I do think the consensus seems to be that you can get really good WRs in the top of the 3rd likely.
So looking at PFF, they have a lot of OT and WR in their top 55. But if we assume our options at the top of the 3rd are guys in their 55-85 range? They have 6 WRs in that range and 1 tackle. 85-100 they have 4 more WRs and no Tackles.

Looking at consensus big board doesn't work yet, because too many places don't have anything outside a top 30 or 50.
 

Jimbodandy

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Kid from Yale I think will be gone by 68, ND tackle I haven't seen much of, but I don't think he's in that tier from what I've heard.

In terms of an X... depends how you view guys X vs. Z.

I do think the consensus seems to be that you can get really good WRs in the top of the 3rd likely.
So looking at PFF, they have a lot of OT and WR in their top 55. But if we assume our options at the top of the 3rd are guys in their 55-85 range? They have 6 WRs in that range and 1 tackle. 85-100 they have 4 more WRs and no Tackles.

Looking at consensus big board doesn't work yet, because too many places don't have anything outside a top 30 or 50.
As far as an X goes, guys that can get real separation downfield, outside of the numbers. Not that I wouldn't love a Zay Flowers type, but I think that one guy that could challenge defenses deep is a must. Corley could be that guy. I'd be thrilled with your top 3, really your whole draft although I don't know much about Stover.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Kid from Yale I think will be gone by 68, ND tackle I haven't seen much of, but I don't think he's in that tier from what I've heard.

In terms of an X... depends how you view guys X vs. Z.

I do think the consensus seems to be that you can get really good WRs in the top of the 3rd likely.
So looking at PFF, they have a lot of OT and WR in their top 55. But if we assume our options at the top of the 3rd are guys in their 55-85 range? They have 6 WRs in that range and 1 tackle. 85-100 they have 4 more WRs and no Tackles.

Looking at consensus big board doesn't work yet, because too many places don't have anything outside a top 30 or 50.
It’s a very deep and talented tackle class but that’s really just a statement of how bad most tackle classes are. There will be good players through maybe the mid 2nd but it will dry up quickly given the scarcity in the NFL. I’m sure we will see one or two runs on tackle where a bunch come off the board fairly quickly.

The WR group has legitimate starting talent throughout the top 100, but the WR likely available at pick 35 or whatever is likely to be a better overall prospect than the tackles still available (and way better stop round 3). I think there will be legitimate starting caliber, high end WR prospects available through the top 2 rounds and maybe until the mid 3rd. The tackles in that range will be guys who project to have ceilings of “solid starter” and not “premium starter” like the WR class.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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File this 3-round mock under "in our dreams" but we sure as hell better have signed some tackles in FA:

  • 9.
    Drake Maye
    QB North Carolina
  • 34.
    Adonai Mitchell
    WR Texas
  • 68.
    Ja'Lynn Polk
    WR Washington
  • 2025 CHI 1st
  • 2025 CAR 2nd
 

Jimbodandy

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File this 3-round mock under "in our dreams" but we sure as hell better have signed some tackles in FA:

  • 9.
    Drake Maye
    QB North Carolina
  • 34.
    Adonai Mitchell
    WR Texas
  • 68.
    Ja'Lynn Polk
    WR Washington
  • 2025 CHI 1st
  • 2025 CAR 2nd
Need to get at least one high end OT from this draft. Not that we're deep in WR either, but this year's OL would get a rookie QB killed and the FA tackle class is going to be rough.
 

Cellar-Door

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I wonder how much extra benefit getting Devontez Walker along with Maye at 3 since they would presumably already have some chemistry together.
I'm not a fan at all of Tez Walker... I feel the guy who summed him up best was Mike Renner from PFF who said "this guy is gonna get overdrafted because he's fast" and comped him to........
Tyquan Thornton. He gets no YAC, he can't really run any routes underneath, and he can't throttle down so in the NFL guys will just give him tons of cushion and then use his inability to make quick breaks and stops to drive on him.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm not a fan at all of Tez Walker... I feel the guy who summed him up best was Mike Renner from PFF who said "this guy is gonna get overdrafted because he's fast" and comped him to........
Tyquan Thornton. He gets no YAC, he can't really run any routes underneath, and he can't throttle down so in the NFL guys will just give him tons of cushion and then use his inability to make quick breaks and stops to drive on him.
Yeah he'll get overdrafted because he has nice height too, but he's not one of the 11-12 guys that seem pretty legit. I like Roman Wilson a lot better, and he's often mocked lower.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Well I would settle for this. Wanted an OT at 34, but Bowers was sitting there still. And somehow no trade offer. So hoped for an OT or WR at 68, but Rakestraw was sitting there. (Disclaimer: I only know about the prospects based on that I read, mostly from the little blurbs in the PFN simulator.)


77321
 

DJnVa

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This is how I feel especially if you are sold that either Maye/Daniels is the guy you can develop into a franchise QB. Tackle at 34 would be a must.
The issue is how other teams draft though. If 6 tackles go in first round, then drafting the next guy at 34 might be an overdraft. If 7 go before our pick, then you don't take a tackle just because that was your thoughts predraft.

PFN has 5 in first round, then guys ranked #40 and #43, then a little gap to #57. Then it's down to guys ranked #94 and #102. We just gotta see how the draft unfolds.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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If they get the franchise QB at 3 and Brock Bowers is sitting there at 34, I don't know how you pass him up unless one of the better tackles also slipped.
 

Cellar-Door

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The issue is how other teams draft though. If 6 tackles go in first round, then drafting the next guy at 34 might be an overdraft. If 7 go before our pick, then you don't take a tackle just because that was your thoughts predraft.

PFN has 5 in first round, then guys ranked #40 and #43, then a little gap to #57. Then it's down to guys ranked #94 and #102. We just gotta see how the draft unfolds.
Yeah, always going to depend on FA and who is on the board.

My guess is that the most likely value pick at 34 is going to be OT based on:
1. General projections of talent of OT class (and other positions)
2. Importance of OT
3. Incredibly weak OT class in FA
4. History of likelihood of getting starting (or better) quality OT later in the draft vs. other posiitons.
 

GB5

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I haven’t seen Bowers available anywhere after top 10-15, is there any realistic scenario where he is still there in the top of the 2nd?
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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I haven’t seen Bowers available anywhere after top 10-15, is there any realistic scenario where he is still there in the top of the 2nd?
Probably not. Except he was there in the mock I ran, even though they have him ranked at something like 6.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Absolutely no chance we get Brock Bowers at #34 b/c if he got past 26 or so - he won't leave the top 12, IMO - it would be absurd not to trade UP from 34 to get him.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Absolutely no chance we get Brock Bowers at #34 b/c if he got past 26 or so - he won't leave the top 12, IMO - it would be absurd not to trade UP from 34 to get him.
I agree. But I ran a mock and he was there, so I took him. And a couple of people said you have to take an OT there. So I said if Brock Bowers falls to you there, you have to take him over an OT. But yes he is never falling that far short of some kind of fall from grace due to something non football related.
 

67YAZ

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I haven’t seen Bowers available anywhere after top 10-15, is there any realistic scenario where he is still there in the top of the 2nd?
Gonna take a significant injury suffered between now and the draft to make that happen.