I'm not excited to start this thread because there's still a month of THIS season to go. But after getting it handed to them by the Astros, this season seems...out of reach, yes?
So when I look at the rest of this season, I think it's all about making sure the core of the team for 2024 is in place, and then the team can figure out the rest for the offseason.
With that being said, here's what I think they have solidly in place for 2024.
C - Wong - he's been superb defensively. Subpar bat, but not egregiously so. Definitely a legit MLB starting catcher.
1b - Casas - he's been awesome this year, especially after a slow start. 128 ops+, 21 homers in just 380 ab. Future stud power lefty bat at 1b or DH.
2b - Urias - he's been so-so since coming over. He doesn't cost tons, and is under team control in 2024 and 2025. Probably worth keeping around.
3b - Devers - obviously locked into a long-term deal.
SS - Story - under team control for 5 more years (that 5th year is an option). Still a good baseball player, but I could see them dealing him IF the right situation came along. But he has struggled with injury and even performance this season.
LF - Yoshida - not going anywhere. Solid bat (115 ops+). Meh fielding. Useful MLB player who I hope improves the next couple of years, but that might be hard given his age. He probably is what he is, which is a not great, but pretty good, MLB player overall.
CF - Duran - now injured but should be fine for next year. Breakout kind of year this year (120 ops+, improved D). Really nice player to have.
RF - Verdugo - one more year left of control. I could see Boston dealing him this offseason if they think they can improve.
DH - Turner - interesting. He's old (38) and has one more year left on his deal, but it's an option year. He might opt out. Will the Sox want him back (probably yes) but for how much $$? He's been terrific for them all season long and I think he's well worth another year here.
OF - Refsnyder - has one more year left on his deal; he's been meh this year.
OF/IF - Rafaela - is he a sure thing to start next year in Boston? Or could he spend time in Worcester?
IF - Reyes - under team control; he's done a good job for them when healthy (which isn't often)
OF Abreu - is he here for good? Kid can swing the bat!
SP - Bello - right now their best starter by far. Young, electric. Should only improve.
SP - Sale - one more year left at $27m. Not going anywhere, but I don't think they can count on him anymore. Anything they get from him is a bonus at this point.
SP - Houck/Whitlock/Crawford - all under team control for a while. All three have upside, but none of the three are AWESOME. Good, useful pitchers and the Sox need to figure out whether they're starters or relievers moving forward.
RP - Jansen - one more year left under team control. He's been really good for them overall.
RP - Winckowski - solid bullpen arm, under team control for a while.
RP - Martin - one more year left under team control. He's been their best reliever this year.
RP - Pivetta - actually under control for 2024 (arbitration). Probably will be here because of his versatility and willingness to do whatever they ask of him.
They've got some prospects who are projected to arrive in Boston sometime in 2024: Yorke, Mayer, Drohan, Walter (I know he's already been here a little), Mata.
Clearly there's a lot of pieces there in place. A lot of YOUNG pieces in place too. There's a glut of OF - Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Abreu. Likely can't keep them all, unless they decide to use Rafaela as a utility guy next year. But among the OF, that's a lot of lefty bats (Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Abreu). They likely need more RH power in there, especially because Devers and Casas are also lefties. So might there be a deal in the works? Makes sense to move Verdugo if they can get a better RH bat that plays OF.
Story will be key next year. They really need him to be normal Trevor Story - which would provide a solid RH bat and outstanding IF defense. I'm curious to see when Mayer is ready to go, but he's another lefty. Maybe Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, Urias to backup IF, and Rafaela as the utility guy that plays most nights SOMEWHERE?
It's kind of weird - the Sox aren't very good, but yet at the same time it feels like they already have a team basically in place for next year that has lots of potential to be good. At least offensively. Pitching is another matter entirely - they need massive improvements with the rotation. The bullpen can be helped by simply putting Houck and Whitlock in the pen full time but who knows if that's what they want to do.
In any case, this last month should be spent figuring out guys like Rafaela and Abreu, to see if they are legit MLB players right now and for 2024.
So when I look at the rest of this season, I think it's all about making sure the core of the team for 2024 is in place, and then the team can figure out the rest for the offseason.
With that being said, here's what I think they have solidly in place for 2024.
C - Wong - he's been superb defensively. Subpar bat, but not egregiously so. Definitely a legit MLB starting catcher.
1b - Casas - he's been awesome this year, especially after a slow start. 128 ops+, 21 homers in just 380 ab. Future stud power lefty bat at 1b or DH.
2b - Urias - he's been so-so since coming over. He doesn't cost tons, and is under team control in 2024 and 2025. Probably worth keeping around.
3b - Devers - obviously locked into a long-term deal.
SS - Story - under team control for 5 more years (that 5th year is an option). Still a good baseball player, but I could see them dealing him IF the right situation came along. But he has struggled with injury and even performance this season.
LF - Yoshida - not going anywhere. Solid bat (115 ops+). Meh fielding. Useful MLB player who I hope improves the next couple of years, but that might be hard given his age. He probably is what he is, which is a not great, but pretty good, MLB player overall.
CF - Duran - now injured but should be fine for next year. Breakout kind of year this year (120 ops+, improved D). Really nice player to have.
RF - Verdugo - one more year left of control. I could see Boston dealing him this offseason if they think they can improve.
DH - Turner - interesting. He's old (38) and has one more year left on his deal, but it's an option year. He might opt out. Will the Sox want him back (probably yes) but for how much $$? He's been terrific for them all season long and I think he's well worth another year here.
OF - Refsnyder - has one more year left on his deal; he's been meh this year.
OF/IF - Rafaela - is he a sure thing to start next year in Boston? Or could he spend time in Worcester?
IF - Reyes - under team control; he's done a good job for them when healthy (which isn't often)
OF Abreu - is he here for good? Kid can swing the bat!
SP - Bello - right now their best starter by far. Young, electric. Should only improve.
SP - Sale - one more year left at $27m. Not going anywhere, but I don't think they can count on him anymore. Anything they get from him is a bonus at this point.
SP - Houck/Whitlock/Crawford - all under team control for a while. All three have upside, but none of the three are AWESOME. Good, useful pitchers and the Sox need to figure out whether they're starters or relievers moving forward.
RP - Jansen - one more year left under team control. He's been really good for them overall.
RP - Winckowski - solid bullpen arm, under team control for a while.
RP - Martin - one more year left under team control. He's been their best reliever this year.
RP - Pivetta - actually under control for 2024 (arbitration). Probably will be here because of his versatility and willingness to do whatever they ask of him.
They've got some prospects who are projected to arrive in Boston sometime in 2024: Yorke, Mayer, Drohan, Walter (I know he's already been here a little), Mata.
Clearly there's a lot of pieces there in place. A lot of YOUNG pieces in place too. There's a glut of OF - Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Abreu. Likely can't keep them all, unless they decide to use Rafaela as a utility guy next year. But among the OF, that's a lot of lefty bats (Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Abreu). They likely need more RH power in there, especially because Devers and Casas are also lefties. So might there be a deal in the works? Makes sense to move Verdugo if they can get a better RH bat that plays OF.
Story will be key next year. They really need him to be normal Trevor Story - which would provide a solid RH bat and outstanding IF defense. I'm curious to see when Mayer is ready to go, but he's another lefty. Maybe Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, Urias to backup IF, and Rafaela as the utility guy that plays most nights SOMEWHERE?
It's kind of weird - the Sox aren't very good, but yet at the same time it feels like they already have a team basically in place for next year that has lots of potential to be good. At least offensively. Pitching is another matter entirely - they need massive improvements with the rotation. The bullpen can be helped by simply putting Houck and Whitlock in the pen full time but who knows if that's what they want to do.
In any case, this last month should be spent figuring out guys like Rafaela and Abreu, to see if they are legit MLB players right now and for 2024.