Right...I understand that we're very left handed. & I understand why in a vacuum that might seem like a problem... but if a lefty hits better against lefties than a righty does, it doesn't help to have the righty in the lineup.
2024 Core
- Thread starter BaseballJones
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I agree. In a vacuum, adding another left handed hitter who is better against left handers is a net positive. Yes - Urias and Reyes (and Yorke) are all RHH. As is Trevor Story. In '24, Urias and Reyes are probably replacement level. In '25 when Mayer arrives, Story improves 2nd base dramatically, but there will be no place for Urias, Reyes and Yorke.
I'm looking at it this way.....the Sox need to solve its glaring defensive weaknesses likely without addressing 1st base and 3rd base (both below average, but will tolerate due to the offense). SS will be improved dramatically (assuming Story stays healthy). 2nd base appears replacement level (as I don't see the Sox investing in a 2nd baseman long term with Mayer on the horizon). That leaves the outfield...which is very left handed and below average defensively.
So how does management address the defense while at the same time considering the Left Handedness?
I'm not trying to talk in circles, but unless management wants to have only 2 or 3 regular RHH's in '24 and '25, it needs to look at the outfield for opportunities to upgrade defensively and address their Left Handedness. In a vacuum, one more lefthanded bat may not hurt and may be better than the alternative....but a consistent lineup with 7 lefthanded bats may simply be too many especially when the right handed bats (Wong, Rafaela, 2nd basemen) are all more limited offensively.
I'm saying with dollars to spend and some prospect capital, management needs to get an impact, plus defending RHH rightfielder. That's no small task.....but that's the glaring hole in '24 and '25. Management does have some currency to spend with Verdugo and Duran. Although I wouldn't mind seeing Verdugo in leftfield much more, with Yoshida DH'ing. An outfield of Verdugo, Rafaela, and Plus Defense RHH rightfielder could be amazing to watch.
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I feel like your logic holds when it comes to lineups against a left-handed starter. I think the bigger concern is when it comes to left-handed relievers. Having a block of LHH together in the lineup makes the team susceptible to lefty specialists (bit of a dying breed with the 3-batter minimum rule but still exist). I think over the course of 2-3 PAs in a game, any possible left on left advantage for the pitcher can be mitigated and is probably largely why good lefty hitters like Devers have good numbers against left-handed pitching overall. A left-handed reliever, coming in fresh to only pitch to 3 batters, is a different thing.
Take Caleb Thielbar (LHR for the Twins) as an example. This season he faced 47 LHH, retiring 41 of them (.128/.128/.213/.341). If you've got 3-4 lefties in a row, even if it's Devers, Casas, and Yoshida, I'm not sure I like the chances of sustaining any kind of a rally. But if you break it up with a RHH or two, Thielbar becomes a lot less deadly (.258/.319/.621 vs 73 RHH) and the odds of making something happen in that inning increase.
Well, to some extent platooning & having strong RHH on the bench helps with that. Refsnyder, for example, isn't a good hitter... but he's a good hitter against lefties (131 wRC+ this season compared to 33 against righties).
& I'm not opposed to the acquisition of a strong RHH, but the Duvall example is particularly non-conpelling to me due to his reverse splits.
If a RHH who hits like Turner (142 wRC+ against lefties, 105 against righties) & could play defense well was available, that would be a great get, though.
& I don't disagree with Redhawk's example...it probably makes up a very limited set of circumstances throughout a season, though, & as I mentioned in my previous post, especially if you aren't chaining together 3 in a row.
Refsnyder is a great 4th / 5th outfielder. Maybe he's a good platoon solution, but he's barely replacement level. My problem is your comment (which I highlighted) - I don't see how without targeting a RHH outfielder, the Sox won't be chaining together 3 lefties in a row...and maybe two times in the line up. Is there someone who could be this years Shane Victorino acquisition? There aren't a ton of outfield options via free agency who are a clear upgrade over what '23 was. And the Sox must improve one of the historically bad defenses. How do they use their prospect capital and salary cap capital to upgrade?
It's why I think Soto is a non starter. He makes them even more lefthanded (yes great hitter), but he's a horrible defender and will cost a ton in prospects. Imagine Yoshida, Duran and Soto. Pitchers will be afraid to let a ball be hit in the air. And the alternative is balls hit on the ground, past Devers and Casas. In and of himself, Soto is a upgrade for any team. In this circumstance, given the weaknesses inherent with this team, I think Soto is actually a downgrade.....as the added offense makes a putrid defense even worse.
I agree with this. Thy aren't terrible and it is easy to see them as playoff contenders with the addition of two starters. But there are not close to a 100 win team - in part because a lot of the not terrible players are not great either.
Does such a batter exist? There are some lefties who have superficially even splits, but their power tends to drop while they get more selective and make it up a bit in OBP. A bunch of lefties in a row who might work a walk doesn't help score many runs. Right handed power is the biggest need in the lineup because it plays against anyone.
Even if we make the lineup as lefty heavy as we can based on what's currently available...
C McGuire (L)
1B Casas (L)
2B Valdez (L)
SS Story (R)
3B Devers (L)
LF Duran (L)
CF Abreu (L)
RF Verdugo (L)
DH Yoshida (L)
You can still avoid falling victim to a strong LHP by not putting the people you are not willing to PH for together.
The McGuire position can become Wong. Duran, Abreu &/or Verdugo can become Refnsyder & Rafaela, Valdez can become Urias or Reyes or Rafaela.
So if we're not PHing for Casas, Devers or Yoshida, all you have to do is not put them together, & put someone else in between. So let's say our lineup against a RH starter is:
LF Duran
3B Devers
RF Verdugo
1B Casas
SS Story
DH Yoshida
2B Valdez
CF Abreu
C McGuire
You can replace any of Duran, Verdugo, Valdez, Abreu & McGuire with RHH, leaving the best case for a LHH reliever in the heart of the order something like Devers/Refsnyder/Casas.
& to Max Power's point...
Devers ISO against righties was .235 compared to .215 against lefties. & Casas ISO against righties was .223 compared to .241 against lefties. They both make significant hard contact against lefties.
None of that to say Soto is a good fit, because he really isn't in a world where we're not moving on from 2 of Duran, Verdugo & Yoshida, but Soto had a 130 wRC+ this season against lefties (166 against righties). To Max's point, he does have the much wider ISO split (.273 to .180), but it's not like one would be uncomfortable having him out there.
I hate the idea of trading a bunch of assets for the opportunity to try to get a guy to extend for what will likely be full market value, or watch him walk for a comp pick after the season. Especially someone who isn't a great fit with what's already on the roster. So I agree with the conclusion regardless.
There aren't a lot of obvious OF acquisitions, so I think we should probably try to reshuffle what we have. Luckily we have kind of a lot to work with:
Yoshida – LHH. Assuming we're all correct that his second half swoon was due to fatigue, he's a good-to-great offensive player (LHH with a mild split) with seriously negative defensive value.
Verdugo – well-rounded LHH who plays good defense in the corners. More OBP than SLG, but a good offensive player. Kind of a weird dude?
Duran – Much-improved defender who had a great season on the back of an insane BABIP, some (but not all) of which he earned with a high LD rate. His expected stats are still a good player, particularly if he can maintain his improved jumps on defense. LHH toolshed with a mild split.
Refsnyder – RHH with an extreme split. One-dimensional, but extremely complementary with the other guys on the roster. .308/.428/.400 vs. left-handed pitching, vaguely playable at all three OF positions.
Abreu – LHH. xwOBA thinks he's merely excellent; statcast loves his throwing arm. He's rangier than he looks. I guess we'll see?
Rafaela – RHH. Plus-plus defense, whiffs and barrels.
If Verdugo has any trade value (he should), I'd be trying to cash that in.
I want Yoshida DHing most of the time, with maybe a few dozen games in LF in congenial ballparks against tough RHP. Then, I want Duran–Rafaela–Abreu left to right for most of the time, with Refsnyder resting one of the lefties against tough lefties, and Yoshida playing in the field (shifting Duran to center) to give Rafaela time off against the toughest righties, or when we need Rafaela in the infield.
That should be a pretty solid two-way OF.
Yoshida – LHH. Assuming we're all correct that his second half swoon was due to fatigue, he's a good-to-great offensive player (LHH with a mild split) with seriously negative defensive value.
Verdugo – well-rounded LHH who plays good defense in the corners. More OBP than SLG, but a good offensive player. Kind of a weird dude?
Duran – Much-improved defender who had a great season on the back of an insane BABIP, some (but not all) of which he earned with a high LD rate. His expected stats are still a good player, particularly if he can maintain his improved jumps on defense. LHH toolshed with a mild split.
Refsnyder – RHH with an extreme split. One-dimensional, but extremely complementary with the other guys on the roster. .308/.428/.400 vs. left-handed pitching, vaguely playable at all three OF positions.
Abreu – LHH. xwOBA thinks he's merely excellent; statcast loves his throwing arm. He's rangier than he looks. I guess we'll see?
Rafaela – RHH. Plus-plus defense, whiffs and barrels.
If Verdugo has any trade value (he should), I'd be trying to cash that in.
I want Yoshida DHing most of the time, with maybe a few dozen games in LF in congenial ballparks against tough RHP. Then, I want Duran–Rafaela–Abreu left to right for most of the time, with Refsnyder resting one of the lefties against tough lefties, and Yoshida playing in the field (shifting Duran to center) to give Rafaela time off against the toughest righties, or when we need Rafaela in the infield.
That should be a pretty solid two-way OF.
I get the concern but not exactly seeing how Yoshida to DH, Soto to LF would be a downgrade.
If we go into 2024 with Story as our shortstop and Rafaela as our primary CF (maybe May 15th on), I think that solves about 90 percent of the defense concerns.
Those guys likely help Devers, Casas and whoever's in left field. Assuming Verdugo or someone defensively comparable is in RF, that seems like an average-to-good defensive team to me. I like Duran quite a bit but he again seems like a tremendous trade chip given the construction of our team.
The guy who comes to mind here is Harrison Bader. He's battled injuries most of the last two years. Pretty solid pull/fly ball hitter when healthy. Don't want to sign him to 3/$39M but he could be interesting in a CF/RF shuffle with Rafaela and Abreu as they get their bearings.
I endorse Duran-Rafaela-Abreu, but would prefer to get a right-fielder to shore things up and platoon Rafaela and Duran in CF , but two things: one, Duran does not have a mild split. In 50 PA last year, he was good, a .750 OPS, but for his career? A .570 OPS. Now, that's over like 100 PA. He hasn't been given much of a chance to hit lefties. But I think my instinct is if Rafaela is up with the big club, he should be getting those starts in CF against lefties until we're sure Duran can handle those matchups.
I'd also add that Verdugo , despite almost never getting platooned in his career, is absolutely a guy who should be platooned. A .665 OPS against lefties for his career (.609 this past year). He's horrid against LHP. I'm not sure he'll fetch us much but I'm fine with sending him packing for a couple of prospects, especially if we're signing/swinging a deal for another right fielder.
I'm with @JM3 on the issue of handedness, and still against the idea of bringing back Duvall. He's got a neutral split for his career, and has been a really good defender in the past, but he seemed to my eye to have lost a step this year. He'll probably fetch 10 mill + over a couple of years and I don't like the idea of tieing up all that money for a guy who has really been Dr Jekyll and Hyde as a hitter.
I've looked at them thoroughly...the weird thing is he was better against righties than lefties in both '21 & '22. Definitely not an exciting option, but a talented guy with the floor of a very good defensive player...who will do anything next season ranging from rake against lefties & hit very well against righties to being awful against both.
I cannot watch Bader tongue his mouthpiece for 162 games. No thank you under any circumstances.
I'm curious as to what selling high on Duran looks like. For a time he seemed to have turned a corner regarding baseball, but he's also publicly acknowledged that he's dealing with mental health issues.
That's a great question. Baseball Trade Values.com put his medium value at 30.0. I limited my search to young'ish starting pitchers with MLB experience. That could net the Sox Bryce Miller 26.7 or Bryan Woo 25.1 from the Mariners. Kyle Harrison from the Giants (doubtful, but he is 28.5). McKenzie Gore, Nationals - 23.7. Bailey Ober from the Twins is 27.5. Rangers Suarez from the Phillies is 30.1. Andrew Abbott, Reds is 30.1. And just for grins....Eduardo Rodriquez from the Tigers is 25.8. I didn't look within the division, nor did I look at the Dodgers or Braves (is Duran an upgrade? And they don't need to make a deal as the farm is stacked).
For reference, Bryan Bello is 36.1 and Tristan Casas is 38.5. Kutter Crawford is 29.0.
I'm not suggesting Duran could net any of these as I don't know the status of minor league outfielders and SP's. I did a little (tiny) deeper dive to the Mariners as they seem to have a huge need for offense...and appear to have lots of pitching.
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The line-up vs. a left handed starter would look something like:
C- Wong
1B- Casas
2B- right handed batter
SS- Story
3B- Devers
LF- Refsnyder (rotating through the OF)
CF- Duran or maybe Rafaela
RF- Verdugo
DH- ???
That is four or five or six right handed batters so I don't feel worried about balancing the line-up. And, while Trout is a name that creates a huge amount of excitement, I'm guessing the Angles don't want to trade him, plus he is wildly expensive under a long term contract. I'm fine with exploring that possible trade, but it seems so unlikely.
As for right-handed bats, I've thrown out Chas McCormick and Mitch Garver as a couple of names. I'd be thrilled if the Sox made that trade and deal and then focused on pitching. I've seen mention of Josh Bell as a primary DH and back up first baseman. Turner will be available but his post-All Star numbers and age are a concern. Jorge Soler is another option but doesn't seem like a very attractive choice due to poor fielding and the likely size of his contract. Duvall had a couple of great weeks but I wouldn't want to spend a ton of money on him. Carlos Santana is not going to get your pulse racing but had a very good season batting right handed.
What about Spencer Steer via trade? The Reds have an abundance of young players and Steer played a bunch of positions last year (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF) with some good offensive numbers, in particular against lefties.
Edit: Slash line of .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 37 doubles, and 15 steals. Against lefties: .313/.378/.550.
C- Wong
1B- Casas
2B- right handed batter
SS- Story
3B- Devers
LF- Refsnyder (rotating through the OF)
CF- Duran or maybe Rafaela
RF- Verdugo
DH- ???
That is four or five or six right handed batters so I don't feel worried about balancing the line-up. And, while Trout is a name that creates a huge amount of excitement, I'm guessing the Angles don't want to trade him, plus he is wildly expensive under a long term contract. I'm fine with exploring that possible trade, but it seems so unlikely.
As for right-handed bats, I've thrown out Chas McCormick and Mitch Garver as a couple of names. I'd be thrilled if the Sox made that trade and deal and then focused on pitching. I've seen mention of Josh Bell as a primary DH and back up first baseman. Turner will be available but his post-All Star numbers and age are a concern. Jorge Soler is another option but doesn't seem like a very attractive choice due to poor fielding and the likely size of his contract. Duvall had a couple of great weeks but I wouldn't want to spend a ton of money on him. Carlos Santana is not going to get your pulse racing but had a very good season batting right handed.
What about Spencer Steer via trade? The Reds have an abundance of young players and Steer played a bunch of positions last year (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF) with some good offensive numbers, in particular against lefties.
Edit: Slash line of .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 37 doubles, and 15 steals. Against lefties: .313/.378/.550.
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The Angels have said they would be willing to trade Trout if he asked for a trade. That’s what got the speculation started.
I will be curious to see what Breslow does with Pivetta. I know the book on him is that he is what he is (aren't we all!) but after reading this Fangraphs interview, it sounds like he made a meaningful change to his repertoire in June that might account for him turning his season around:
He had his best season as a pro last year, pitching to a 113 ERA+ with an ERA that basically matches his peripherals. He's durable, he misses bats (11.5 SO/9), and he's a free agent after next season...is it insane to think Breslow should extend him?
Will be nice to have pitching coaches to introduce players to different pitches. Sweeper was by far Pivetta’s best pitch this season. If he replaces the cutter with the sweeper it's an interesting profile.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-pivetta-601713?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb
Not really sure it makes sense for both sides to extend Pivetta - not sure we want to trust him enough to be in our top 5 for the next X # of years, & there should likely be teams in different financial situations that would pencil him into the rotation for several years.
Probably makes sense to trade him after we get a couple big name guys based on the disparity between his value to us & another team, but who knows?
He's great as a "no. 6" though. I don't know what his value would be on the FA market but if he could be had for around $7M per year it's worth a good extension. He can start if he's needed and at 7 million, isn't a horrifying overpay for a long relief or even 2 inning guy. An arm that doesn't break down and can be put anywhere on the pitching side is so valuable.
I don't know about extending him though as I'd rather see how he fares in '23 as Chris Sale's starting understudy. With Sale's money off the books after '23, there's a lot to throw around with what should be a pretty locked down team after this season. Sale's money seems like cash on the barrelhead.
Yeah, I mean if he'll take like a 3/$21m he's welcome to it. I would think he could probably get around $12m/year+ on the open market, & idk if that really makes sense for us.
If we add 2 top of the rotation guys that leaves Sale, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Murphy & Pivetta for 3 spots. Doesn't make a ton of sense to keep everyone in that scenario, & Pivetta is both expiring & won't be as expensive as Sale, so might have more value in a trade than on the roster.
Depends on what the market is for everyone, health, etc. I wanted to trade him last off season because he wasn't very good at pitching & greatly outperformed his peripherals. & I was kind of right for a while, but then the thing I said about he would have to get better at pitching to be a useful pitcher happened & he upped his mph, added the sweeper, etc. So we shall see. It really should be the most fascinating off season in a long time.
I really think the Whitlock-as-a-Starter era is over. Bello, to me should be given the 3rd spot ("spots" are kinda silly, but for discussion sake...). Sale needs to be assumed to be in the rotation but let's face it... he's going to get injured. So the full depth of:
1. Yamamoto or X
2. Montgomery or Y
3. Bello
4. Sale/Pivetta
5. Houck/Crawford
to me really only has PIvetta there to back Sale up and his flexibility is valuable. Whoever doesn't make the "no. 5" out of Houck or Crawford provides a great bullpen arm. I lean towards Crawford as a starter and Houck as potential closer. Crawford has a better arsenal of pitches for a starter.
All said... maybe Breslow can sprinkle some magic on the Whitlocks, Crawfords and Houcks and turn them into what we were hoping.
Bullpen is looking good
Pivetta
Houck
Whitlock
Winchowski
Martin
Jansen
Schreiber