Why did we have to add someone on Jan 12? We I get that we eventually wanted to bring in an arm with Sale/Paxton being big ?s but if we weren't going to sign a frontline guy there were tons of options.
Thanks, didn't realize it was that complicated. Yeah, In a sense Wacha did sign for more, even if the floor of 3/$20 seems like a reasonable bet for a talented 31 year-old the team appeared to have somewhat "fixed"
Note, there is a general trend among pitchers that they get around half a run worse on FIP the second time through, and a bit worse on the third time.
And he is a developing player, he has to pitch a third time through the order to figure out how to do it on the MLB level. Maybe he never does and is a future reliever. But it's like letting developing young hitters bat against left and right handers instead of just platooning them instantly if they don't have equal numbers. You lose games developing players, but if you don't you'll lose even more over the long term.
Surprised it isn't worse honestly. But the point is Houck has been particularly susceptible to this (well known) phenomenon for years which is why he's always been considered a fringe starter. For the record I'm also not sold on Whitlock as a starter either, so I'll leave it to the analytics guys to assess which of them deserves to stick.
OK, but as Shaggy says, Houck may not be doomed to repeat his past forever. Right now he's thru 6 and the third time through it's been six up, six down.
Why take Houck out of the game after only 83 pitches when he's been brilliant? Hope the bullpen doesn't lose it again.
Houck hasn't often worked too deep in games (e.g. 21-26 batters faced; 23 tonight) so I am not shocked, and the 7th would have started with two LHHs. Maybe they have some data about him struggling with lefties the third time? Or maybe they just wanted to quit while they were ahead, as far as getting him feeling more confident. They've lost three games recently after excellent starts, which happens, but hopefully not too much more. Apart from Kluber, the rotation is really feeling promising.
I think this is part of the problem at this point. Houck has now made 29 career starts. Basically a season's worth but they've been spread over four separate seasons. Continuing to be effective through the second and third times through an order is a learned skill. The best way to learn is by doing, and his opportunities to learn have been sporadic. Given the difference between AAA and MLB lineups, it's not necessarily something he can learn to do effectively anywhere but a big league game. They have to give him opportunities when they present themselves. Last night was a success, debate over whether he could have pitched the seventh aside. He needs more chances to repeat it.
How many starting pitchers have ever said they're cooked? I don't know, maybe some do. Good question for Cora. Did it get asked?
Yup! Zero walks, a few nice defensive plays on hard hit balls, and a double play erasing one of our only base runners…
Houck did pitch into the 7th inning at Detroit early in April. However the angels lineup is much stronger than the Tigers and so this was a more impressive performance.
Houck has been a really encouraging part of this season so far, even a little underappreciated amid the splashier surprises.
Interestingly, his pitch % changed last night - more heavy use of the slider. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tanner-houck/19879/game-log?type=6&gds=&gde=&season=&position=P
I am beginning to worry about the sustainability of the surprise offensive contributions from guys like Valdez, Wong and Duran. It wouldn’t shock me if they all hit under a .700 OPS from here on out. But meanwhile Devers has really ben looking not like a $30M cornerstone player.
So is Kluber going to get bounced from the rotation when Whitlock returns? Is Whitlock's spot in the rotation locked-in?
Cora has already shot this down. Kluber starts Sunday, meaning he gets at least one more try. As to your second Q, I'd lean Whitlock for FBBL based on quality, though Houck is more durable.
Kluber is on the thinnest of ice. He needs to dial back the clock on Sunday to save his job. He's going to need to show signs of 2017-2018 Kluber, let alone even 2022 Kluber. Short of that, I can't see how either Whitlock or Houck deserve to be pushed to the bullpen in favor of continuing to run Kluber out there every fifth day.
Well, would you look at that, the ice cracked. Looks like Houck and Whitlock are in.
17th in ERA, 22d in FIP, 22d in FWAR (though fewer games than most teams).
Great point. I am starting to think that my offseason hopes of them chasing a top guy are misguided. [Partly because Urias has been bad; Shohei obbviously is another matter but isn't likely.] Obviously Paxton is a free agent and if he's good someone else should and will pay him, but with Crawford and maybe Winckowski next up, we are in good shape for a few years.
I expect they'll sign somebody next winter. Maybe not a top-tier guy, but it'll be someone to put in the Paxton slot. Wouldn't shock me if it was another 1 year veteran or reclamation project in the vein of Kluber/Wacha/Hill/etc. Just someone to add to the depth and make for a little competition at the back end. As much as I like what Crawford and Winckowski bring, it probably wouldn't be prudent to just assume one of them will work out full time in the rotation.
https://theathletic.com/4546565/2023/05/24/red-sox-prospect-system-overhaul?source=user-shared-article
The FA pitchers look not interesting, overpriced or unlikely though. I think a trade is more likely…. Bloom has accumulated some higher level talent that isn’t too far off.
Pitchers, though? Not really. But if Bello, Whitlock, and Houck can be competent starters and Sale is SALE, then they probably won’t need more than another short term guy to fill out the rotation. Last few turns around have been pretty promising though, that’s for sure. I think the season has always largely rested on what the team can get from Sale, Whitlock, and Bello.
Thank you for posting this article.
Right but he was light years better than Rodriguez. I mean… which pitcher “contributed” more to the loss?
Yeah, AFAIK, there's no official scorer's discretion in awarding a loss, as there is in awarding a win when the starter doesn't go 5.
