2023 Sox Stat Projections...

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
With less than a month until ST and the roster pretty close to being set, lets predict some (old school) stats...

Kiki: .261 BA .318 OBP 17 HR 66 RBI 84 R 7 SB
Yoshida: .307 BA .376 OBP 14 HR 44 2B 59 RBI 91 R
Devers: .283 BA .339 OBP 34 HR 49 2B 117 RBI 101 R
Turner: .240 BA .314 OBP 24 HR 78 RBI 74 R
Casas: .251 BA .333 OBP 22 HR 76 RBI 69 R 82 BB
Verdugo: .287 BA .329 OBP 18 HR 81 RBI 72 R 12 SB
Duvall: .237 BA .298 OBP 29 HR 76 RBI 61 R
McGuire: .277 BA .318 OBP 11 HR 44 RBI 45 R
Arroyo: .279 BA .325 OBP 12 HR 42 RBI 39 R

Sale: 11-8 144 IP 2.89 ERA 1.17 WHIP 161 K 44 BB
Pivetta: 9-13 178 IP 4.50 ERA 1.37 WHIP 168 K 72 BB
Whitlock: 10-9 135 IP 3.64 ERA 1.21 WHIP 149 K 38 BB
Bello: 12-7 136 IP 3.43 ERA 1.28 WHIP 151 K 52 BB
Kluber: 8-10 152 IP 4.42 ERA 1.19 WHIP 139 K 32 BB
Paxton: 5-6 94 IP 5.98 ERA 1.21 WHIP 101 SO 26 BB
Crawford: 4-4 75 IP 4.10 ERA 1.31 WHIP 68 SO 32 BB
Houck: 8-2 69 IP 3.22 ERA 1.19 WHIP 81 K 29 BB
Jansen: 2-3 70 IP 2.31 ERA .98 WHIP 90 K 27 BB 29 S
Martin: 5-2 62 IP 2.64 ERA 1.11 WHIP 68 K 11 BB 22 H
Barnes: 3-5 58 IP 3.88 ERA 1.04 WHIP 71 K 32 BB 14 H 9 S
Rodriguez: 3-3 46 IP 3.29 ERA 1.16 WHIP 45 K 14 BB
Mata: 2-4 39 IP 4.77 ERA 1.37 WHIP 54 K 29 BB
Taylor: 2-2 41 IP 3.65 ERA 1.22 WHIP 39 K 13 BB
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Paxton: 5-6 94 IP 5.98 ERA 1.21 WHIP 101 SO 26 BB
Poor Paxton must be running really bad. He had a 1.28 WHIP in '19 for the Yankees but only a 3.69 ERA.

I don't really have much to say about the thread as a whole. That is an ambitious undertaking, though.
 

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
Poor Paxton must be running really bad. He had a 1.28 WHIP in '19 for the Yankees but only a 3.69 ERA.

I don't really have much to say about the thread as a whole. That is an ambitious undertaking, though.
*typo on his ERA...meant to put 3.98!.good catch JM3
 

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
Anyone else want to comment (or rip me apart) on these off the top of my head projections? It is snowing and 29 degrees up here in VT in mid-january so needless to say, thinking of baseball and the crack of the bat is helping get me thru the long winter.....
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Jun 5, 2012
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no snow at all here in DC, but I hear you on winter being long, especially when it comes to baseball. how'd you come up with the projections? you say off the top of your head--any way to elaborate further on that?
 

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
no snow at all here in DC, but I hear you on winter being long, especially when it comes to baseball. how'd you come up with the projections? you say off the top of your head--any way to elaborate further on that?
I've been in two separate fantasy leagues for several years, so I have a general idea of what type of numbers most guys have put up in the past. In addition, I probably watch an average of 150 Sox games per year, so I'm familiar with the guys returning. I took into account where they are likely to hit most in the lineup, and the rest is just hunches and educated guesses. I guess I was bored yesterday. I was hoping to generate some conversation that is a bit different than "what it'll take in a trade to get this guy or that guy". Those are great threads too, was going for something forward thinking....
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Jun 5, 2012
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well, I'd be happy with these results--especially for hitters. Of course, health figures into this in ways we can't anticipate. Why the 2.31 ERA for Jansen? I'd love it, but seems better than I would have expected. Any thoughts on 2nd catcher (or maybe 3rd if both Wong and Alfaro get time), or other (possible) bench players?

oh, and also curious to know what you think lineup will look like (assuming no changes like a new SS that would move Hernandez back to CF). here's my guess/hope:

v. RHP

Yoshida LF
Turner DH
Devers 3B
Duvall CF
Verdugo RF (interested to see if he continues strong hitting from latter part of '22)
Arroyo 2B (stay healthy!)
Casas 1B (could outperform 7 slot, but of course has limited experience and this could take some pressure off him)
K. Hernandez SS (hoping someone else is brought in to play SS)
McGuire C

v. LHP

Yoshida LF (could move him down and move K. Hernandez up)
Turner DH
Devers 3B
Duvall CF
K. Hernandez SS
Arroyo 2B
Refsnyder RF (not that Verdugo will always sit v. lefties)
Casas 1B
Alfaro C (hoping he shows enough to make club and deliver on some of his intriguing promise)
 
Last edited:

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
well, I'd be happy with these results--especially for hitters. Of course, health figures into this in ways we can't anticipate. Why the 2.31 ERA for Jansen? I'd love it, but seems better than I would have expected. Any thoughts on 2nd catcher (or maybe 3rd if both Wong and Alfaro get time), or other (possible) bench players?
I wrote it around the same time the Taipia minor league deal was announced. I honestly have no idea what the backup catcher and bench situation will look like. I hope this is not the final roster. As I've stated in other threads, we are still woefully thin at SS. Kiki and Aroyyo are the only two with any MLB experience there, (aside from a Dalbec cameo) and they are presently the starting MI. It'd be easier to predict bench when we actually know who the bench is. It seems like Arroyo, Dalbec, Duran, Taipia, Valdez, Wong, Alfaro are all possibilities depending on trades/signings. One pitcher that i failed to put in there that I should have is Schreiber.
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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Jun 5, 2012
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I wrote it around the same time the Taipia minor league deal was announced. I honestly have no idea what the backup catcher and bench situation will look like. I hope this is not the final roster. As I've stated in other threads, we are still woefully thin at SS. Kiki and Aroyyo are the only two with any MLB experience there, (aside from a Dalbec cameo) and they are presently the starting MI. It'd be easier to predict bench when we actually know who the bench is. It seems like Arroyo, Dalbec, Duran, Taipia, Valdez, Wong, Alfaro are all possibilities depending on trades/signings. One pitcher that i failed to put in there that I should have is Schreiber.
agreed on SS/MI situation. what do you think lineups will look like (assuming--which I hope is not the case--that Sox don't add to MI)?
 

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
Yoshida LF, Arroyo 2B, Devers 3B, Turner DH, Casas 1B, Kiki SS, Verdugo RF, Duvall CF, McGuire C...something like this. maybe swap Kiki and Arroyo, but OBP is the issue at the top. maybe swap Casas and Verdugo to start the season w/ less pressure on the kid. But like you said, this can't be final roster. Literally no one to back up Kiki...
 

Daniel_Son

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May 25, 2021
1,123
San Diego
I think it'd be helpful to establish some sort of baseline. Here's the 2023 Steamer projections for the probable starting 9 + backups and a few others who may see some playing time this year:

Player G PA AVG OBP SLG HR R RBI SB
Hernández
133​
596​
0.238​
0.310​
0.397​
17​
73​
62​
3​
Yoshida
122​
483​
0.298​
0.388​
0.479​
18​
86​
61​
5​
Devers
150​
662​
0.277​
0.345​
0.510​
32​
92​
100​
4​
Turner
130​
555​
0.267​
0.343​
0.421​
15​
65​
67​
2​
Casas
118​
484​
0.247​
0.351​
0.450​
19​
59​
60​
3​
Verdugo
141​
600​
0.280​
0.338​
0.429​
14​
70​
71​
4​
Duvall
97​
392​
0.213​
0.272​
0.417​
18​
43​
52​
2​
McGuire
75​
292​
0.241​
0.293​
0.365​
5​
29​
29​
1​
Arroyo
96​
369​
0.263​
0.314​
0.419​
10​
43​
43​
5​
Wong
44​
173​
0.249​
0.300​
0.436​
7​
21​
22​
2​
Refsnyder
52​
217​
0.254​
0.334​
0.408​
6​
25​
23​
2​
Alfaro
43​
173​
0.241​
0.283​
0.382​
5​
18​
19​
2​
Story
70​
299​
0.238​
0.310​
0.421​
11​
36​
37​
8​
Valdez
23​
92​
0.246​
0.309​
0.436​
3​
11​
11​
1​
Dalbec
40​
161​
0.221​
0.290​
0.434​
8​
19​
21​
1​
Duran
45​
194​
0.240​
0.300​
0.393​
4​
23​
19​
6​
Tapia
21​
88​
0.268​
0.311​
0.392​
1​
10​
9​
2​


The middle of the order (2-6) is actually pretty solid, especially if Turner actually plays 130 games and Casas meets projections. No OBP lower than .338, nearly 100 home runs and 350+ RBIs. That's a lot of traffic on the bases coupled with some pretty decent power. With luck, I could see any of those guys (outside of Devers obv.) cracking 20 home runs. The other thing that stands out to me is speed, or lack thereof. No one's projected to steal more than 10? It'd be really nice if Hamilton progresses or Duran can stick as a backup outfielder over Tapia. Story's loss stings in more ways than one.

Here are the pitchers currently on the 40-man:

Players Record IP ERA WHIP K BB
Chris Sale 10-8
147​
3.49​
1.15​
172​
41​
Corey Kluber 9-11
165​
4.70​
1.32​
132​
38​
James Paxton 8-9
139​
4.29​
1.31​
138​
48​
Nick Pivetta 10-12
178​
4.73​
1.39​
169​
69​
Garrett Whitlock 8-8
135​
4.04​
1.26​
130​
39​
Brayan Bello 7-7
115​
3.88​
1.34​
112​
43​

Matt Barnes 3-3
66​
4.21​
1.37​
71​
29​
Ryan Brasier 3-3
58​
4.09​
1.28​
58​
18​
Kutter Crawford 3-3
52​
4.26​
1.26​
52​
16​
Franklin German 1-1
21​
4.44​
1.38​
19​
8​
Tanner Houck 4-4
72​
3.67​
1.26​
79​
25​
Kenley Jansen 3-3
63​
4.14​
1.27​
71​
25​
Zack Kelly 1-1
26​
4.15​
1.36​
26​
11​
Chris Martin 3-3
60​
3.56​
1.16​
63​
13​
Bryan Mata 1-1
18​
4.55​
1.45​
16​
8​
Wyatt Mills 1-1
24​
4.36​
1.40​
22​
10​
Chris Murphy 1-1
14​
4.43​
1.38​
12​
5​
Kaleb Ort 3-3
54​
4.55​
1.39​
53​
23​
Joely Rodríguez 3-3
62​
3.84​
1.37​
61​
26​
John Schreiber 3-3
68​
3.75​
1.28​
68​
23​
Josh Taylor 2-2
42​
3.74​
1.29​
45​
16​
Brandon Walter 1-1
19​
3.73​
1.26​
18​
5​
Josh Winckowski 1-1
18​
4.23​
1.34​
15​
5​
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
2,259
That's a curiously low amount of playing time projected for Yoshida, does he have some sort of injury history or is it just projections being weird about rookies?
 

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
That's a curiously low amount of playing time projected for Yoshida, does he have some sort of injury history or is it just projections being weird about rookies?
I was thinking the same thing. By all accounts, that is a bat you want in your lineup 145-152 games per year, whether in LF or at DH to keep his legs fresh.
 

Cassvt2023

lurker
Jan 17, 2023
37
Also, if Turner and Duvall hit a combined 33 HR, I think we're in big trouble. I'd think that number should be closer to 45-48 area.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
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May 25, 2021
1,123
San Diego
Also, if Turner and Duvall hit a combined 33 HR, I think we're in big trouble. I'd think that number should be closer to 45-48 area.
Really depends on how much playing time they actually get. 18 home runs over 97 games for Duvall is a fairly good clip, if he's our full-time center fielder I'd imagine he breaks 25 easily.