2023 SoSH NFL Prediction Thread

j-man · Sep 3, 2023

afc east
1 NYJ 11-6
2 Buff 10-7
3 mia 9-8
4 ne 8-9
afc north
1 ciny 12-5
2 balt 11-6
3 pitt 9-8
4 cle 8-9
afc south
1 jax 10-7
2 hou 6-11
3 tenn 5-12
4 indy 4-13

afc west
1 kc 11-6
2 lac 10-7
3 den 9-8
4 vegas 8-9

nfc east
1 philly 13-4
2 dal 10-7
3 wc 9-8
4 nyg 7-10

nfc north
1 minn 9-8
2 det 8-9
3 gb 7-10
4 chi 4-13

nfc south
1 no 9-8
2 atl 8-9
3 car 7-10
4 tb 5-12

nfc west
1 sf 12-5
2 sea 10-7
3 ari 4-13
4 rams 3-14
AFC Payoff
1 ciny
2 nyj
3 kc
4 jax
5 balt
6 buff
7 lac

nfc playoff
1 philly
2 sf
3 no
4 minn
5 sea
6 dal
7 wc

MYP J Burrow
dpoy m parcons dal
opoy j jefferson minn
coy r rievea wash
oroy b robinson atl
droy w anderson jr hou
AFC Champ ciny over jets
NFC champ philly over sf
sb 58 philly over ciny

pats
rush yards steveson 1'150
over
rush td's steveson 8
under
parker 68 995 5 td's
under
jones 22 td 10 int
2-4 vs afc east

luckiestman · Sep 6, 2023

This is wordy because I wanted to document my thinking so I can see where I went wrong:

NFL Preseason write-up

AFC

Vegas:

AFC EAST

Bills
Jets
Dolphins
Pats

AFC North

Bengals
Ravens
Browns
Steelers

AFC South

Jags
Titans
Colts
Texans

AFC West
Chiefs
Chargers
Broncos
Raiders

Chalk Playoffs (not my picks): Bills, Bengals, Jags, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets, Chargers

Teams that should be good:

Vegas playoff teams: Bills, Bengals, Jags, Chiefs, Ravens, Jets, Chargers
Plus (my opinion): Dolphins

Teams that could be good: Pittsburgh, Titans

Things would have to go very well but it’s possible: Pats, Browns, Broncos, Raiders

No Shot (if good it’s coach of year situation): Colts, Houston,

Why it could go sideways:

AFC East

Bills: They seemed to be getting further away from their peak as the season progressed but was this a “Josh Allen is hurt thing”? Their division is tough. They seem to own the Pats but the Dolphins and Jets gave them problems last year.

Jets: The QB is old and coming off an injury and bad year and the offensive tackles are a question mark. The HC is unproven.

Fish: The obvious injury issues with Tua and DCs have had a year to study Tua/McDaniel offense. First year Fangio is not peak Fangio from what I have heard from experts. Silver Lining: Tua took my advice and learned how to fall. It was obvious he had no idea.

Pats: A lot of hope for Bill Obrien but all the Brady orbit guys have a lot to prove when coaching other players. Offensive talent is easily 4th in the division. QB is 4th. Silver lining Pats fans: BB is BB, I’ll believe he is dead when the pall bearers put his coffin in the ground.

Lucky Prediction: Rodgers's revenge tour against his imagined enemies and a loaded defense as well as high self-esteem Mekhi Becton gets the Jets a division title for the first time in over twenty years.

Jets, Bills, Fish, Pats

AFC North

Bengals: Burrow injury, that’s it.

Ravens: Lamar is weird. New OC wants to run Lamar less when his biggest strength is his legs. The D is not as great as their reputation. Silver Lining: they hang in games it seems like they should lose. Harbaug is a discount store BB in that regard. Lamar is happy to have been paid and doesn’t get hurt

Browns: The QB is what we saw last year. Browns have a great roster otherwise.

Steelers: The Pickett hype train derails.

Lucky Prediction: Burrow is that guy. Tomlin comes out as the winner of the intra-division bloodbath. All these teams are good but someone has to lose.

Bengals, Steelers, Browns, Ravens

AFC South

Jags: Very lucky last year. Offense could be good. Year of tape of Trevor. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Titans: Henry is a little washed. Tanny can’t stay on the field

Colts: only interesting to see Eagles OC with Richardson, don’t care otherwise

Houston: Demeco is cool but Stroud looks far away from what I saw. Development year

Lucky Prediction:

Titans, Jags, Houston, Colts

AFC West

Chiefs: They have been losing players. Lost OC. Probably doesn’t matter.

Chargers: Counting on injury prone players

Broncos: The QB isn’t fixable

Raiders: Josh McDaniels is the head coach and has done nothing in this league without Brady. He has the understudy this year and maybe Aidan bails him out when Jimmy G twists his ankle. Silver Lining: Jimmy looks amazing in Silver and Black.

Lucky Prediction:

Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos

Recap:

Lucky Division Winners:

Jets, Bengals, Titans, Chargers

Ranked but not in terms of wins: Bengals, Jets, Chargers, Titans
Ranked (the change is due to schedule):

Chargers, Bengals, Jets, Titans

Who is left (pick 3)?

Bills, Fish, Steelers, Browns, Ravens, Jags, Chiefs

Gimme in order:

Chiefs, Bills, Steelers

Seeds:

1 Chargers (BYE)
2 Bengals
3 Jets
4 Titans
5 Chiefs
6 Bills
7 Steelers

WC Weekend

Bengals v Steelers = 2. Bengals
Jets v Bills = 3. Jets
Titans v Chiefs = 4. Chiefs

Divisional Round

Chargers v Chiefs = 4. Chiefs
Jets @ Bengals = 3. Jets (homer picks start now)

AFC Championship

Chiefs @ Jets = The New York Jets are going to the Super Bowl

BaseballJones · Sep 6, 2023

AFCE
1. Buf 13
2. NYJ 11
3. NE 10
4. Mia 8

AFCN
1. Cin 11
2. Pit 10
3. Bal 10
4. Cle 7

AFCS
1. Jax 10
2. Ten 8
3. Ind 6
4. Hou 3

AFCW
1. KC 14
2. LAC 10
3. Den 9
4. LV 7

Playoffs:
1. KC
2. Buf
3. Cin
4. Jax
5. Pit
6. NYJ
7. NE

Buf over NE
Cin over NYJ
Pit over Jax
- - -
KC over Pit
Buf over Cin
- - -
KC over Buf

NFCE
1. Phi 12
2. Dal 11
3. NYG 9
4. Was 9

NFCN
1. Min 9
2. Det 9
3. Chi 7
4. GB 7

NFCS
1. Atl 9
2. NO 8
3. Car 8
4. TB 6

NFCW
1. SF 11
2. Sea 10
3. LAR 7
4. Ari 6

Playoffs
1. Phi
2. SF
3. Min
4. Atl
5. Dal
6. Sea
7. Det

SF over Det
Sea over Min
Dal over Atl
- - -
Phi over Sea
SF over Dal
- - -
SF over Phi

Super Bowl: SF over KC

luckiestman · Sep 6, 2023

BaseballJones said:
Super Bowl: SF over KC

Jets are 5 seed by your win totals, messes up your playoff games. This is why I didn’t take the time to do win totals.

BaseballJones · Sep 6, 2023

luckiestman said:
Jets are 5 seed by your win totals, messes up your playoff games. This is why I didn’t take the time to do win totals.

Ah crap. Ok give the Jets 10 wins and lose out to Pit on tiebreakers.

Ale Xander · Sep 6, 2023

AFCE
Bills 14-3
Dolphins 10-7
Jets 9-8
Pats 5-12

AFCN
Bengals 14-3
Ravens 12-5
Steelers 10-7
Browns 8-9

AFCS
Titans 10-7
Jags 10-7
Colts 5-12
Texans 3-14

AFCW
Chiefs 11-6
Chargers 9-8
Raiders 8-9
Broncos 6-11

WC1
Ravens
WC2
Jags
WC 3
Dolphins

Steelers left out

Bye
Bills

AFCCG Bengals over Bills

NFCE
Cowboys 12-5
Eagles 11-6
DC 8-9
Giants 7-10

NFCN
Vikings 11-6
Packers 9-8
Lions 7-10
Bears 6-11

NFCS
Saints 10-7
Panthers 8-9
Falcons 7-10
Bucs 5-12

NFCW
49ers 12-5
Hawks 9-8
Rams 8-9
Cardinals 4-13

Bye, Cowboys

WC1
Eagles
WC2
Packers
WC3
Hawks

NFCCG Cowboys over Vikings

SB Bengals over Cowboys 34-23
Chase SB MVP, 11 ReC, 198 yards, 1 rush, 22 yards, 3 rec TD

RS MVP Josh Allen
OPOY Josh Allen
DPOY Micah Parsons
OROY Bijan Robinson
DROY Lukas Van Ness

Pats:
Over, Stevenson
Over, Stevenson
Under, Parker
15 TD, 22 INT
1-5 v. AFCE, win in NJ.

DanoooME · Sep 6, 2023

AFC East
Buffalo
Miami
NY Jets
NE

AFC North
Cincinnati
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Cleveland

AFC South
Jacksonville
Tennessee
Houston
Indy

AFC West
KC
LA Chargers
LV
Denver

NFC East
Philly
Dallas
Washington
NY Giants

NFC North
Minnesota
Detroit
Green Bay
Chicago

NFC South (who cares really, they all suck)
New Orleans
Carolina
Atlanta
Tampa Bay

NFC West
San Francisco
Seattle
Arizona
LA Rams

AFC Playoffs
KC, Buff, Cincy, Jax, LAC, Balt, Tenn

Buff over Tenn
Cincy over Balt
LAC over Jax

KC over LAC
Cincy over Buff

Cincy over KC

NFC Playoffs
Philly, SF, Minnesota, NO, Seattle, Detroit, Dallas

SF over Dallas
Detroit over Minnesota
Seattle over NO

Philly over Detroit
Seattle over SF

Philly over Seattle

Super Bowl - Cincy over Philly

Battle for the #1 draft pick: LAR, TB, Indy, Arizona, Houston

As bad as the Cardinals are going to be, the Rams are going to be worse. They have Kupp (already hurt), Stafford (ticking time bomb), Donald (gonna get double/triple teamed) and 50 JAGs.

SMU_Sox · Sep 7, 2023

I also picked each game.

AFC East
2 - Buffalo 13-4
6 - Miami 12-5
7 - NYJ 11-6
11 - NEP 9-8

AFC North
1 - Baltimore 15-2
5 - Cincinnati 13-4
9 - Cleveland 10-7
10 - Pittsburgh 10-7

AFC South
4 -Jacksonville 10-7
12 - Tennessee 9-8
15 Indianapolis 3-14
16 Houston 2-15 (dumbasses shouldn't have traded up for Will Anderson)

AFC West
3 - KC 11-6
8 - Denver 10-7
13 - LAC 5-12
14 - Raiders 4-13

AFC Playoff Teams
1. Baltimore
2. Buffalo
3. KC
4. Jacksonville
5. Cincinnati
6. Miami
7. NYJ

NFC East
1 - Philly 15-2
5 - Dallas 14-3
10 - NY Giants 5-12
15 - Washington 2-15

NFC North
4 - Detroit 12-5
8 - Green Bay 9-8
9 - Minnesota 6-11
15 - Bears 2-15

NFC South
3 - Atlanta 13-4
6 - New Orleans 13-4
12 - Tampa Bay 3-14
14 - Carolina 3-14

NFC West
2 - SF 14-3
7 - Seattle 10-7
13 - LA Rams 4-13
16 - Arizona 0-17

NFC Playoff Teams
1. Philly
2. SF
3. Atlanta
4. Lions
5. Dallas
6. New Orleans
7. Seattle

MVP: Josh Allen
DPOY: Micah Parsons
OPOY: Tyreek Hill
COY: Arthur Smith
OROY: Bijan Robinson
DROY: Will Anderson

Playoffs:
AFC:
Bengals over Jaguars
Miami over KC
Bills over Jets

Ravens over Fins
Bengals over Bills

Ravens over Bengals

NFC
Cowboys over Lions
Falcons over Saints
49ers over Seahawks

49ers over Falcons
Eagles over Cowboys

Eagles over 49ers

SB:
Ravens over Eagles

Patriots
Leader in rushing yards: Rham
Over/under 900 yards for leader: over 1,060
Leader in rushing TD's: Zeke, 8
Over/under 9.5 rushing TDs for leader Under
Leader in receptions? JJSS
Over/under 80.5 receptions for leader? Under
How many TDs/INT's for Mac? 27/13
Record vs. AFC East 2-4

luckiestman · Sep 7, 2023

NFC

I know less about the NFC, so that may lead to better predictions. The Vegas Playoff odds at the time of this writing are as follows:

49ers
Eagles
Cowboys
Saints
Lions
Seahawks
Falcons
Vikings
Packers
Bears
Giants
Panthers
Commanders
Bucs

Note on the big dogs before division breakdown:

The cynical view:

49ers: Purdy and Darnold aren't that great (I would love for Sam to succeed). Purdy played well, but this could turn into a Scott Mitchell situation. The 49ers have also lost another good defensive coordinator. That should matter at some point. The Seahawks being the only quality team in their division probably covers up some of their weaknesses.

Iggles: They lost a lot of players on their defense, and they lost both coordinators. I think the offensive coordinator was good, but the defensive coordinator might be more of an addition by subtraction. It might be difficult to tell because personnel changes are a bigger issue.

Boys: The loss of Kellen Moore looms large. Mike Lombardi always said he did not call a complementary football game, but I have the Chargers as the AFC 1 seed, so I cannot say the Boys will be better on offense. They have a stacked team, but the offense might not be as good.

NFC East:

Philly
Dallas
Giants
Washington

It's close to chalk for me. There are too many questions. The matchup between Daboll and Wink versus Bienemy and Del Rio will be interesting to watch. Is Howell as good as Dimes? Probably. I have the Commanders last, but they could be a big surprise team. My confidence level here is low.

NFC North

Lions
Vikings
Packers
Bears

I love offensive lines, and the Lions have one of the best. There's this Packers narrative that I view as an anti-Rodgers narrative. I think people want it to be true. They weren't that good with Rodgers, and they will be worse without him. The Lions will trouble them, and so will the Vikings. The Bears aren't looking promising.

NFC South (Who Cares?)

Falcons
Saints
Bucs
Panthers

I don't like putting faith in Ridder, but I'm going with the offensive line again. The Saints will win this thing if the coaching is even, but I favor Smith.

NFC West

Seahawks
49ers
Rams
Cardinals

I'm still not a Geno believer, but he might be good enough, and I believe in Pete. I like the Hawks' roster. The potential of the 49ers with Purdy makes them a playoff team, but not the dominant team from last year.

Let’s rank this:

The NFC East bloodbath leads to a surprising playoff picture where one of the best teams could be on the road for wild card weekend:

Lions (BYE)
Seahawks
Falcons
Philly
Cowboys
Vikings
Saints

Note: The Giants and Commanders probably beat the Saints head-to-head, but that's not how this works. I think I mirror Vegas but not in the same order, which I don't like.

Wild Card Weekend:

Seahawks vs. Saints = 2. Seahawks
Falcons vs. Vikings = 6. Vikings
Philly vs. Cowboys = 4. Philly

Divisional Round:

Detroit vs. Vikings = 1. Lions
Seahawks vs. Philly = 4. Philly

NFC Championship:

Lions vs. Philly = Philly

Super Bowl:

Jets vs. Philly

The New York Jets have never beaten the Philadelphia Eagles.

Until now.

Your Super Bowl Champions are the NEW YORK JETS!

luckiestman · Sep 7, 2023

Awards? I don't put a lot of stock in things that can be voted on. This shit is like a Keynesian beauty contest as much as it is about the truth, but I'll play:

MVP: Justin Herbert
DPOY: Quinnen Williams
OPOY: Garrett Wilson
COY: Mike Tomlin
OROY: Jahmyr Gibbs
DROY: Devon Witherspoon

SMU_Sox · Sep 7, 2023

Only 7 of us did it this year. That is low.

Of the 7 we have Patriots finishing: 1st once, 2nd none, 3rd once, and 4th five times.

My concern for the Patriots is more on offense obviously. They don't have a great OT situation. I am also worried about Parker and Thornton's health because without them we have no X receiver. Without an X it is likely that Bourne plays that role. He is not someone you want as your X. He would make a nice Z though. If he is playing out of position you suddenly have a bad receiving situation vs just a mediocre one.

Oil Can Dan · Sep 7, 2023

AFC East
Buffalo*
Miami*
NY Jets
NE

AFC North
Cincinnati*
Pittsburgh*
Baltimore
Cleveland

AFC South
Jacksonville*
Tennessee
Houston
Indy

AFC West
KC*
LAC*
LV
Denver

NFC East
Philly*
Dallas*
NY Giants
Washington

NFC North
Minnesota*
Detroit*
Green Bay
Chicago

NFC South
Carolina*
New Orleans
Atlanta
Tampa Bay

NFC West
San Francisco*
Seattle*
LA Rams
Arizona

AFC Playoffs

Cincy (2) over Mia (7)
Buf (3) over LAC (6)
Pitt (5) over Jack (4)

KC over PItt
Buff over Cincy

Buff over KC

NFC Playoffs

Sea (7) over Minn (2)
SF (3) over Det (6)
Dal (5) over Carolina (4)

Philly over Seattle
SF over Dallas
Philly over SF

Super Bowl - Philly over Buffalo

streeter88 · Sep 7, 2023

Sorry to be late. On Venezia time, so all backwards and forwards. (i.e., eight hours less ahead than usual).

AFC East
Buffalo (2)
New England - WC1
Miami
NY Jets

AFC North
Pittsburgh (4)
Cincinnati - WC2
Cleveland
Baltimore

AFC South
Jacksonville (3)
Tennessee
Houston
Indy

AFC West
KC (1)
LAC WC3
LV
Denver

NFC East
Philly (2)
Dallas (WC2)
NY Giants
Washington

NFC North
Detroit (3)
Minnesota (WC3)
Green Bay
Chicago

NFC South
Carolina (4)
New Orleans
Atlanta
Tampa Bay

NFC West
San Francisco (1)
Seattle (WC1)
LA Rams
Arizona

AFC
1. KC
2. Buffalo
3. Jacksonville
4. Pittsburgh
5. New England
6. Cincinnati
7. LA Chargers

Buffalo (2) over LAC (7)
Cinn (6) over Jville (3)
NE (5) over Pitt (4)

Cinn (6) over Buff (2)
NE (5) over KC (1)

Cinn (6) over NE (5)

NFC
1. SF
2. Philly
3. Detroit
4. Carolina
5. Seattle
6. Dallas
7. Minn

Phil (2) over Minn (7)
Detroit (3) over Dallas (6)
Seattle (5) over Carolina (4)

SF (1) over Seattle (5)
Detroit (3) over Philly (2)

SF (1) over Detroit (3)

Super Bowl - Cinn over SF - MVP Burrow

It's too late here (and just too effing hot) to do any other picks. Plus I am not following closely enough this year. But I think that either Cinncinati or SF are most deserving of the ringz this year. Please God let it not be the Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Fish or (gawd no) Jets - sorry @luckiestman

luckiestman · Sep 7, 2023

Yeah, my Lions 1 seed might not ever look better than tonight, ha. I’m going to enjoy it.

luckiestman · Sep 11, 2023

Week 1 NFC Breakdown

Most Impressive Performances:

Boys and 49ers: Both teams excelled on the road and dominated their competition.

No Shows:

GMEN: Things unraveled fast for them, but they are probably not as bad as they looked.

Better Than Expected:

Packers (against Bears): Surprisingly strong performance.
Rams: A shocking result from my point of view; I underestimated them.
Panthers: They lost, but I expected them to look worse.
Buccaneers: Good performance, benefited from turnover luck.
Cardinals: Exceeded expectations, easily could have won.

Worse Than Expected:

Eagles: I thought they would win more comfortably despite the loss of coordinators and personnel.
Seahawks: A surprising outcome, even for a Geno doubter like me.
Vikings: Perhaps just a turnover blip, didn't expect them to be great but thought they would win.

In Line with Expectations:

Falcons, Saints, Lions, Commanders: As anticipated, with some slight variations.

I'm most off with my doubts about the 49ers and trying to be clever by picking the Seahawks. I'm looking okay with the Lions pick.

Initial Seeding (NOT POWER RANKINGS) and comments

Lions (BYE) ALIVE
Seahawks UH OH
Falcons ALIVE
Philly ALIVE
Cowboys TOO LOW
Vikings UH OH
Saints ALIVE

THE MAJOR MISS IS THE 49ERS

Who looked the best (only week 1 opinion trying to ignore the past and future):
1a. Niners
1b. Cowboys
3. Lions
4. Rams wtf???
5. Packers
6. Eagles
7. Saints

luckiestman · Sep 11, 2023

Bold is week 1 only so far, not a prediction but just my notes

MVP: Justin Herbert TUA
DPOY: Quinnen Williams PARSONS
OPOY: Garrett Wilson CHEETAH
COY: Mike Tomlin MCVAY
OROY: Jahmyr Gibbs ZAY FLOWERS? TIGHT RACE, BIJAN WAS GOOD TOO
DROY: Devon Witherspoon THREE KIDS FROM PATS EAGLES GAME

SMU_Sox · Sep 11, 2023

Puka Nacua would be your OROY. Imo anyway if we’re doing this on week 1.

10 receptions for 119 yards. I really liked him coming out. Was 55 picks higher than consensus on him, 132 vs 187. He has legit starter upside.

luckiestman · Sep 12, 2023

Week 1 AFC Breakdown
Most Impressive Performances:

Fish: It's all on offense, but whatever, it was impressive. On defense, it's the Jesters, but I'll mostly leave that game aside for this update.

No Shows:

Bengals: They have their excuses.
Steelers: Boy, did Shanny make me look dumb.

Better Than Expected:

Pats Offense: Expected their defense to be great, and it is. Thought the offense would struggle against the Eagles, but they did okay in mediocre to bad weather.
Colts: Thought they would struggle, but they were pretty good.
Browns: Thought they would be okay; they might be good. I've always liked their defensive coordinator.

Worse Than Expected:

Bills: Are you fucking kidding me, Josh Allen?

In-Line with Expectations:

Titans, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Jags, Ravens, Chiefs

Initial Seeding (NOT POWER RANKINGS) and Comments:

Chargers (BYE) - ALIVE
Bengals - UH OH
Jets - 1000 yard stare
Titans - IT’S FINE
Chiefs - IT’S FINE
Bills - IT’S FINE
Steelers - UH OH

Major Miss: Well, it’s the Fish, but we'll see if they can keep this up against six tough defenses in the division.

Who Looked the Best (Only Week 1 Opinion Trying to Ignore the Past and Future): The AFC kind of sucked, so this is a mess

Fish
Browns
Ravens (played a weaker team)
Chargers
Chiefs
Jags
Jets
Raiders
Pats

2023 SoSH NFL Prediction Thread

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