Heading into the free agency season after a surprisingly successful 9-8 season with a playoff appearance, the team is at a bit of a crossroads. Trying to build for the future with the #5 and #20 picks in the draft and lots of holes to plug, especially on defense. But also continuing to try to win in the present. Balancing those two time frames is the tricky part and is something Pete and John are surely spending a lot of time on.
There's been a lot of speculation around what they will focus on in the draft and what they are going to do with Geno. First, Geno. If they do tag him for $32 million or so, that will eat up all of their cap space and then some. According to OTC, they currently have $24 million in cap space. They would need to cut or restructure multiple players just to get below the cap. They have very few candidates to do this. Their top 4 cap hits in 2023 are Adams, Diggs, Lockett, and Metcalf. None of those are able to be cut this year (and they wouldn't want to) and restructuring any of them makes the future cap hits untenable. The next highest cap hit is OLB Nwosu, and he's their best pass rusher. They could negotiate an extension, so that's a possibility to create 2023 cap space at the expense of the future. The next two cap space possibilities are DL Shelby Harris (maybe) and OG Gabe Jackson (adios). Jackson will save $6.5 million with a $4.7 million dead money hit. Harris saves almost $9 million on the cap with $4.7 million dead money. Beyond that, the next best options are DL Quinton Jefferson, DL Al Woods and DL Bryan Mone. Note that Harris, Jefferson, Woods and Mone are all DL, so that would create a major hole that would need replacing with multiple players. Cutting those 4 DL saves $19 million. Can they replace them for that price? Not likely. Anyone else cut would save less than $2 million. If Geno gets tagged, it puts the Seahawks in a bind to have no room to maneuver during free agency or they have to cut multiple players that will cost more to replace. I could see a Nwosu extension, a Jackson cut and maybe 1 or 2 of the DL going, so they might get $10-$15 million in cap space. $8 million comes off the top for the Geno tag, leaving them $2-$7 million to play with.
If they truly want to keep Geno, it's going to require a multi-year deal with a low base salary and high signing bonus, which will hamstring them in future years. And some of the numbers being kicked around in the media are not realistic. Here is an excellent article running down what it would likely take to sign Geno to a multi-year deal. A lot of people talk about a $25-$30 million "mid-tier" for QBs that doesn't really exist. There are 9 veteran QBs making $40 million or more past 2023 (Watson, Prescott, Murray, Stafford, Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Wilson, Goff). Beyond that, for veterans, there isn't much being spent. Geno would be establishing that mid-tier and the Seahawks are one of the least likely teams to set that tier. Geno could even make an argument he should be included in the $40 million group because, Goff. It's not likely Geno is coming back.
And all that ignores the draft. With the #5 and #20 picks in the first round, they are going to have to shell out a lot of guaranteed money just to those two. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Kenny Pickett cost over $45 million total last year, which will go up a little this year. Their cap hits for 2022 were about $8.25 million just for those two picks, plus they have 2 2nd rounders as well. Estimated cost of signing their draft picks against the cap for 2023 is somewhere around $13 million, which they need to account for in the cap. That's one more reason why Geno is not getting tagged.
Beyond cost, it seems most mock drafts are assuming one of two things: They will re-sign Geno and use the #5 pick on defense or they will use #5 on a QB. Both of those assumptions are likely false. I (and that article) just outlined why Geno isn't coming back. So that leaves drafting a QB. They have drafted 2 QBs since 2010, when Pete and John took over: Russell WIlson in the 3rd in 2012 and Alex McGough in the 7th in 2017. Granted they didn't really need to draft a QB during most of that time, but if it was really important, would they have taken the chance of letting Wilson fall to the 3rd? Unless there is someone they really LOVE at QB (like they allegedly loved Allen and Mahomes in their draft years, but didn't get a shot at them), they probably aren't taking a QB. To me, Young is the only guy worth using #5 on in this draft. And he's probably gone at #1. They've never traded up in the first round before, and the cost is sure to be exorbitant, so with so many holes needing to be filled, they aren't moving up. The rest of the QB prospects being hyped all have flaws and might be a little better than last year's QB class but not by much. Maybe Stroud is worth a late first rounder. Levis is all over the place with his accuracy and Richardson is a major project that Pete won't want to undertake. If Stroud is available at 20, maybe they take him. Most likely they go defense with #5 and #20, unless Bijan Robinson falls to #20. Their major needs are pass rush, run stoppers, ILB, WR, C, G in that order. They need a QB, but I'm not convinced Pete and John see it that way. They could also deal one of the first round picks for lower picks and/or a first next year. I'd love to see them get a 2024 first for one of those picks.
It's certainly going to be an interesting offseason.
There's been a lot of speculation around what they will focus on in the draft and what they are going to do with Geno. First, Geno. If they do tag him for $32 million or so, that will eat up all of their cap space and then some. According to OTC, they currently have $24 million in cap space. They would need to cut or restructure multiple players just to get below the cap. They have very few candidates to do this. Their top 4 cap hits in 2023 are Adams, Diggs, Lockett, and Metcalf. None of those are able to be cut this year (and they wouldn't want to) and restructuring any of them makes the future cap hits untenable. The next highest cap hit is OLB Nwosu, and he's their best pass rusher. They could negotiate an extension, so that's a possibility to create 2023 cap space at the expense of the future. The next two cap space possibilities are DL Shelby Harris (maybe) and OG Gabe Jackson (adios). Jackson will save $6.5 million with a $4.7 million dead money hit. Harris saves almost $9 million on the cap with $4.7 million dead money. Beyond that, the next best options are DL Quinton Jefferson, DL Al Woods and DL Bryan Mone. Note that Harris, Jefferson, Woods and Mone are all DL, so that would create a major hole that would need replacing with multiple players. Cutting those 4 DL saves $19 million. Can they replace them for that price? Not likely. Anyone else cut would save less than $2 million. If Geno gets tagged, it puts the Seahawks in a bind to have no room to maneuver during free agency or they have to cut multiple players that will cost more to replace. I could see a Nwosu extension, a Jackson cut and maybe 1 or 2 of the DL going, so they might get $10-$15 million in cap space. $8 million comes off the top for the Geno tag, leaving them $2-$7 million to play with.
If they truly want to keep Geno, it's going to require a multi-year deal with a low base salary and high signing bonus, which will hamstring them in future years. And some of the numbers being kicked around in the media are not realistic. Here is an excellent article running down what it would likely take to sign Geno to a multi-year deal. A lot of people talk about a $25-$30 million "mid-tier" for QBs that doesn't really exist. There are 9 veteran QBs making $40 million or more past 2023 (Watson, Prescott, Murray, Stafford, Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Wilson, Goff). Beyond that, for veterans, there isn't much being spent. Geno would be establishing that mid-tier and the Seahawks are one of the least likely teams to set that tier. Geno could even make an argument he should be included in the $40 million group because, Goff. It's not likely Geno is coming back.
And all that ignores the draft. With the #5 and #20 picks in the first round, they are going to have to shell out a lot of guaranteed money just to those two. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Kenny Pickett cost over $45 million total last year, which will go up a little this year. Their cap hits for 2022 were about $8.25 million just for those two picks, plus they have 2 2nd rounders as well. Estimated cost of signing their draft picks against the cap for 2023 is somewhere around $13 million, which they need to account for in the cap. That's one more reason why Geno is not getting tagged.
Beyond cost, it seems most mock drafts are assuming one of two things: They will re-sign Geno and use the #5 pick on defense or they will use #5 on a QB. Both of those assumptions are likely false. I (and that article) just outlined why Geno isn't coming back. So that leaves drafting a QB. They have drafted 2 QBs since 2010, when Pete and John took over: Russell WIlson in the 3rd in 2012 and Alex McGough in the 7th in 2017. Granted they didn't really need to draft a QB during most of that time, but if it was really important, would they have taken the chance of letting Wilson fall to the 3rd? Unless there is someone they really LOVE at QB (like they allegedly loved Allen and Mahomes in their draft years, but didn't get a shot at them), they probably aren't taking a QB. To me, Young is the only guy worth using #5 on in this draft. And he's probably gone at #1. They've never traded up in the first round before, and the cost is sure to be exorbitant, so with so many holes needing to be filled, they aren't moving up. The rest of the QB prospects being hyped all have flaws and might be a little better than last year's QB class but not by much. Maybe Stroud is worth a late first rounder. Levis is all over the place with his accuracy and Richardson is a major project that Pete won't want to undertake. If Stroud is available at 20, maybe they take him. Most likely they go defense with #5 and #20, unless Bijan Robinson falls to #20. Their major needs are pass rush, run stoppers, ILB, WR, C, G in that order. They need a QB, but I'm not convinced Pete and John see it that way. They could also deal one of the first round picks for lower picks and/or a first next year. I'd love to see them get a 2024 first for one of those picks.
It's certainly going to be an interesting offseason.
