2023 NBA Draft: Wem! Ban! Thank You Yam!

[Kliq]

I have been puzzled back to last year's draft why the injury concerns for Wemby and Holmgren are viewed so differently. I totally get Wemby has shown more and more diverse skills - but injury-wise to me they each present a historically large risk and I heard a ton last year and very little this year about that.

of course, Holmgren then proved the concerns valid so maybe it is as simple as "different people different bodies"

But to me, the biggest concern with Wemby is that guys with that body type have a pretty scary long-term track record....his best comp is Sampson, right? That still means he may well be best in the class, but I very much get the long-term/durability concerns.

I think that pretty much all praise and predictions for Wemby's career come with the caveat that he may get injured, and that career-altering injury issues are probably a higher risk for him than a more conventionally built player like Scoot or Miller.

I do agree that a lot of the takes around Holmgren last year, which were that there is NO WAY he could physically hack it in the NBA, are absent for Wemby and that doesn't make a ton of sense. Wemby has a slightly higher BMI than Chet, but they have largely the same body type. Wemby of course, is seen as being much better than Chet, so the physical issue is less of a concern because he is so skilled.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think that pretty much all praise and predictions for Wemby's career come with the caveat that he may get injured, and that career-altering injury issues are probably a higher risk for him than a more conventionally built player like Scoot or Miller.

I do agree that a lot of the takes around Holmgren last year, which were that there is NO WAY he could physically hack it in the NBA, are absent for Wemby and that doesn't make a ton of sense. Wemby has a slightly higher BMI than Chet, but they have largely the same body type. Wemby of course, is seen as being much better than Chet, so the physical issue is less of a concern because he is so skilled.

The higher BMI matters though. The rumors of Marfan's exacerbated the concerns. Bad enough to be super tall and super skinny without additional injury risk.

Wemby is certainly a higher injury risk than if he were 6'11 barefoot and long. But if he were a hair skinnier or had a different complication, then people would be adjusting accordingly. That said, Chet still went 2 overall, because potential impact talent always goes high.

 

[Kliq]

The higher BMI matters though. The rumors of Marfan's exacerbated the concerns. Bad enough to be super tall and super skinny without additional injury risk.

Wemby is certainly a higher injury risk than if he were 6'11 barefoot and long. But if he were a hair skinnier or had a different complication, then people would be adjusting accordingly. That said, Chet still went 2 overall, because potential impact talent always goes high.

What Marfan rumors? There was no credibility to those at all, as far as I can tell.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but who will be? My guess is Amen Thompson, but he's got some developing to do.

Which is the one with the completely broken shot? I confuse the two. Whichever one it is I'd be petrified to draft that high as those mechanics may not be fixable.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I have been puzzled back to last year's draft why the injury concerns for Wemby and Holmgren are viewed so differently. I totally get Wemby has shown more and more diverse skills - but injury-wise to me they each present a historically large risk and I heard a ton last year and very little this year about that.

of course, Holmgren then proved the concerns valid so maybe it is as simple as "different people different bodies"

But to me, the biggest concern with Wemby is that guys with that body type have a pretty scary long-term track record....his best comp is Sampson, right? That still means he may well be best in the class, but I very much get the long-term/durability concerns.

I think it's a combination of Wemby being more fluid and a "better" skinny body that he projects to grow into more than Holmgren does along with him having far far far superior basketball skills. With one, you see the greatness and only worry about injury.....with the other even if he remains heathy he still could be kinda average if even that.

 

[Jimbodandy]

What Marfan rumors? There was no credibility to those at all, as far as I can tell.

Yeah maybe they were bullshit, and maybe Marfan's isn't always a career killer for a hooper (I'm clearly undereducated on the matter), but there were rumors about Chet predraft on the matter. Clearly he didn't drop much from it.

HRB is right. Wemby is a different skinny than Chet and is heavier. Just because two guys weigh the same doesn't mean that they have the same injury risk. Wemby worries me. Chet worried me more, just build wise, and still does.

Neither is a basic stretch big, so either would be robbed of more ceiling with a leg injury than a guy whose role is more limited to begin with.

 

[Euclis20]

Wemby looks like a tall skinny NBA rookie. Plenty of guys with his general look have gone on to HOF level careers. Garnett, Durant, Giannis...Wemby just looks like [proportionally] taller versions of those players as rookies, all of whom filled out to various degrees and avoided major injuries for most of their careers. Coming into the draft Holmgren looked severely malnourished, and it's not just the look - he's 2-3 inches taller, but Wemby has over 30 pounds on Holmgren already. How many players came into the league 7+ feet tall and < 200 pounds?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Wemby is also more than a year younger at time of draft and has been playing against grown men in professional leagues since he was 15..... most importantly, he's just way better than Chet at basketball.

 

[nighthob]

Which is the one with the completely broken shot? I confuse the two. Whichever one it is I'd be petrified to draft that high as those mechanics may not be fixable.

They both have bad shooting mechanics. I’m not sure either is really more broken. Great transition players, though. But, yeah, those jumpers are fugly.

 

[nighthob]

Wemby looks like a tall skinny NBA rookie. Plenty of guys with his general look have gone on to HOF level careers. Garnett, Durant, Giannis...Wemby just looks like [proportionally] taller versions of those players as rookies, all of whom filled out to various degrees and avoided major injuries for most of their careers. Coming into the draft Holmgren looked severely malnourished, and it's not just the look - he's 2-3 inches taller, but Wemby has over 30 pounds on Holmgren already. How many players came into the league 7+ feet tall and < 200 pounds?

It’s thirty pounds by Holmgren’s claims. But he refused to be weighed at the NBA Combine, which leads me to believe that he was no 190 (honestly to me he looked closer to 170-175. In other words, the weight difference might be closer to 50lbs.

 

[chilidawg]

Which is the one with the completely broken shot? I confuse the two. Whichever one it is I'd be petrified to draft that high as those mechanics may not be fixable.

Amen's shot needs work for sure, but I wouldn't describe it as broken. His athleticism and playmaking give him a very high ceiling imo.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

They both have bad shooting mechanics. I’m not sure either is really more broken. Great transition players, though. But, yeah, those jumpers are fugly.

I remember thinking one of them may be unfixable. I'll take a look probably on draft day.

 

[ifmanis5]

Spoiling the spoilers.
View: https://twitter.com/JacobKniffen/status/1669442226554916866

Woj says on the @ryenarussillo pod that he will not be tweeting out picks for the draft this year. He will focus more on trades and the TV coverage.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Spoiling the spoilers.
View: https://twitter.com/JacobKniffen/status/1669442226554916866

Woj says on the @ryenarussillo pod that he will not be tweeting out picks for the draft this year. He will focus more on trades and the TV coverage.

Smooth way of conceeding to Shams. Woj seems to be losing his fastball anyway.

 

[TripleOT]

Because of injuries? Hard to imagine him not being the best unless it is because of injuries. And of course the injuries are certainly a possibility.

I think Scoot Henderson is going to be a very special player.

The injury history of very tall (7 foot+) players, plus the style of play in today’s NBA, is why I’m going with this take.

 

[JM3]

Spurs won 34 games last year & traded away 2 of their 3 leading scorers from last year (Dejounte & DWhite) & replaced them with...4 rookies?

Their 3 highest paid players this season?

Doug McDermott ($13.8m)
Josh Richardson ($12.2m)
Danilo Gallinari ($10.4m - buyout)

They're one Keldon Johnson "injury" from being by far the least talented team in the NBA.

Plus everyone is already conspiracy-theorying Wemby to the Spurs.

Yeah...I think I have a problem with sort by win shares if they're used to project Muscala as being more valuable than Giddey + Dort for the Thunder this year.

Also, is JRich the Spurs point guard? Tre Jones?

Here are the lowest over/unders (BetMGM):

Spurs 22.5
Thunder 23.5
Rockets 23.5
Pacers 24.5
Jazz 25.5
Magic 26.5
Pistons 29.5

There's some juice on some of those (like Jazz under is -120, & Spurs & Magic overs are -120), so it's not really as compelling of a point in favor of my Spurs suck argument... but yeah, they're certainly in the mix.

I was looking for something else & accidentally came across this.

*pats self on back*