2023 Mocks

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
Man, I just ran one and it was horrible. Richardson and JSN went early. At 14 Zay was there, but I figured I could trade back and get him, but only KC at 31 was interested and I didn't think he'd last to 31. Took Paris Johnson and then of course Flowers went 31st. Then the rest of the WRs I liked all went before 46 and highest guy on board was a safety...and it was all downhill from there. Kinda the opposite of @j44thor's draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Man, I just ran one and it was horrible. Richardson and JSN went early. At 14 Zay was there, but I figured I could trade back and get him, but only KC at 31 was interested and I didn't think he'd last to 31. Took Paris Johnson and then of course Flowers went 31st. Then the rest of the WRs I liked all went before 46 and highest guy on board was a safety...and it was all downhill from there. Kinda the opposite of @j44thor's draft.
My feel from looking at stuff is that basically we're likely to have to pick between getting a tier 1 WR (JSN, Flowers, Addison, etc.) or a tier 1 OT (Johnson, Wright, Jones, Jones, Harrison). Only way I see you could get 2 is trading back from 14 into the early 20s with 1 team, then trading up from 46 to the early 30s with another team.... and even then you need some luck, as they may all go rd. 1.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
5,003
My feel from looking at stuff is that basically we're likely to have to pick between getting a tier 1 WR (JSN, Flowers, Addison, etc.) or a tier 1 OT (Johnson, Wright, Jones, Jones, Harrison). Only way I see you could get 2 is trading back from 14 into the early 20s with 1 team, then trading up from 46 to the early 30s with another team.... and even then you need some luck, as they may all go rd. 1.
Agreed and this is also why I end up hating all my mock drafts where I take a corner in the 1st. I feel OK not coming away with Zay and taking some shots at the second tier WRs in Day 2, but at OT it gets ugly very quickly. And I keep finding myself looking at the board at #46/#76/#107 and liking the available corners.

Also what're people's reads here on Drew Sanders? I don't know what to think of him. Every once in a while I'll see Sanders available in mocks right after I miss out on Jack Campbell in the 2nd. Some guys like Zierlein love him and think he's a 1st rounder. I've also seen takes that he's too raw to take in the 2nd. And where does he play in the NFL? Is Sanders someone that develops into Tremaine Edmunds? Or does he need to really bulk up and move to pass rusher?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
9,087
Philly
Taking a corner day 1 with the depth of the class seems like a bad idea especially when none of the top guys are slam dunks.

As for Sanders… he isn’t a BB type linebacker in that he can’t take on and shed blocks. He’s a fínese linebacker who can rush the passer so and that has interest to the Patriots but I’m just not a big fan. Feels like he would go to a team like the Cowboys or the 49ers.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
I was wondering that so many of you paid for PFF, then I saw they gave up on paywall after like a week.

So to celebrate that....

63192
 

pappymojo

Member
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Jul 28, 2010
6,758
I should limit myself to no trades but it’s just so fun to come away with a million picks in the next draft.

63198
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
9,087
Philly
It’s a great mock @Cellar-Door. PFF listing Mauch as an OT is a bit of a mis-label though. He’s going to be an OG or an OC. Great fit for us though.
 

OldeBeanTowne

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Dec 12, 2007
1,282
I'm loving these drafts, which means there's probably no chance any of them turn out remotely realistic.

I saw a draft above with Carrington Valentine who is someone I've just recently discovered, but given his athletic freakiness and his aggressive play style, I'd be interested to hear more from others on impressions.

Given his testing, I don't know how late he'll last.
 

Hatcher Steals Home

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Jul 15, 2005
219
Here’s an unlikely trade back and trade up scenario. I don’t think I had to give up enough to pick up the 31st pick from the Chiefs, but to walk away with WR, T, and Schoonmaker on offense would be exciting to say the least.353A190F-6CB5-48FF-8924-5FBE66ADCF3D.jpeg
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Here’s an unlikely trade back and trade up scenario. I don’t think I had to give up enough to pick up the 31st pick from the Chiefs, but to walk away with WR, T, and Schoonmaker on offense would be exciting to say the least.
yeah, you got an entire late 2nd in extra value in the move down (about 95 points by the Rich Hill chart, equivalent to the 57th pick), and unperpaid on the move up (about a late 4th worth, but Hill generally says trading into the 1st costs about a 5th in premium so probably more like an early 4th or late 3rd.

You could probably throw 117 and 184 in to make the trade up work, it's the trade down that is the really bad one.

Edit- I was eyeing a JAX trade down as something that makes sense, something like 14 for 24 and 56 is fairly close. Should probably really be throwing a 6th or future 5th in on our end but an slight overpay to move into the top 15 is pretty reasonable.
 

Hatcher Steals Home

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Jul 15, 2005
219
Edit- I was eyeing a JAX trade down as something that makes sense, something like 14 for 24 and 56 is fairly close. Should probably really be throwing a 6th or future 5th in on our end but a slight overpay to move into the top 15 is pretty reasonable.
Without doing my own analysis and simply reading here and elsewhere, that #24 slot seems like a Goldilocks position to drop down into (or really anywhere in that range).
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Without doing my own analysis and simply reading here and elsewhere, that #24 slot seems like a Goldilocks position to drop down into (or really anywhere in that range).
I think 20 or 21 would be ideal in terms of where you'd want to be, but that 24 is the spot that makes the most sense in that JAX likely wants to add an impact player and their 2nd is a pick with real value but not so much value they wouldn't part with it.
 

Average Game James

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Apr 28, 2016
4,492
Been playing around with a more offense heavy approach early because there are good ED/CB later. This would certainly make the offense more dynamic…

63215
 

Devizier

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Jul 3, 2000
20,036
Somewhere
If the Patriots really like a guy like Flowers then there’s a good chance they won’t trade back more than one or two picks, if at all.
 

Average Game James

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Apr 28, 2016
4,492
Ok, the PFF simulator really is broken. Highlights from this default settings draft include Josh Downs getting picked 12, one spot ahead of Will Anderson, and Gervon Dexter going 23.

63237
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
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Mar 19, 2004
15,247
Missoula, MT
Haha, it would have been awesome if there was also a remark about Hopkins/Jeudy trade to NE in that draft.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
5,003
Mel Kiper’s latest has New England taking Christian Gonzalez at #14 and Matthew Bergeron at #46.

The Darnell Wright train has reached the establishment of the draft industrial complex. Wright is Kiper’s new OT1, landing with Chicago at #9 overall.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
lol, PFN added player trades to their offers.
I did one. Can't track the trades because the final list only shows the full details on trades for picks you used, but this was the result:

99 - Darius Rush CB South Carolina
107 -Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
112 -Zach Harrison Edge OSU
117- RIcky Stromberg OC/OG Arkansas
135- Myles Brooks CB La Tech
187- Dorian Thompson Robinson QB UCLA
192- Yaya Diaby Edge Louisville
210- Antonio Mafi OG UCLA
241- Michael Turk- P - Oklahoma
245- Jake Moody- K- Michigan

Now what did trading all the way down to 99 get us....
WR- Mike Evans
WR- Brandon Aiyuk
LB- Dre Greenlaw
OT- Mekhi Becton
2024- SF 2nd
2024- NYJ 3rd


So, yeah, that might need some work?
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
5,003
Tried to keep the trades relatively in line with the value charts.

63378
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
TWO WEEKS OUT (plus a day, but I'm busy tomorrow)

PFN
14- Anthony Richardson QB Florida
46- Traded to DAL for 58 and 90
58- Josh Downs WR UNC
76- Sydney Brown S Illinois
90- Matthew Bergeron- OT- Syracuse
107- Traded with 245 to WAS for 118 and 150
117- Zach Harrison Edge OSU
118- Traded with 210 for 133 and 148
133- Parker Washington WR Penn St.
135- Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
148- Cory Trice Jr. CB Purdue
150- Mekhi Garner CB LSU
184- Anthony Bradford G LSU
187- Michael Turk P Oklahoma
192- Noah Ruggles K OSU

Probably unrealistic that Richardson falls (also had no real trade options), I like some of the value in the mid-rounds even if I'm not a big Downs fan.

PFF- Pay again?

FANSPEAKS
14- Paris Johnson OT OSU
46- Darnell Washington TE Georgia
76- Joe Tippman OG/OC Wisconsin
107- Sydney Brown S Illinois (draft board messed me up, was looking for him at 76 and couldn't find him)
117- Eli Ricks CB Alabama
135- Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
184- Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR WVU
187- Myles Brooks CB La Tech
192- Andrei Iosivas- WR Princeton
210- JAke Moody- K Michigan
245- Adam Korsak P Rutgers

Mockdraftdatabase (probably last one I do here, Bryce Young has fallen to 14 every time)

14. Bryce Young QB Alabama
46. Jack Campbell LB Iowa
76. Matthew Bergeron OT Syracuse
107. Darius Rush CB South Carolina
117. Chris Smith S Georgia
135. Yaya Diaby Edge Louisville
184 Cameron Mitchell CB Northwestern
187 Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR WVU
192 Jalen Cropper WR Fresno St.
210 Juice Scruggs OG/OC Penn St.
245 Ethan Evans P Wingate
 

RedOctober3829

Member
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Jul 19, 2005
55,997
deep inside Guido territory
I put together a Round 1 mock. No trades.

1. Carolina--CJ Stroud
2. Houston--Bryce Young
3. Arizona--Will Anderson
4. Indy--Anthony Richardson
5. Seattle--Jalen Carter
6. Detroit--Devon Witherspoon
7. LV--Will Levis
8. Atlanta--Christian Gonzalez
9. Chicago--Paris Johnson
10. Philly--Emmanuel Forbes
11. Tennessee--Jaxon Smith-Ngiba
12. Houston--Peter Skoronski
13. NYJ--Broderick Jones
14. NE--Darnell Wright
15. GB--Myles Murphy
16. Washington--Joey Porter Jr.
17. Pittsburgh--Anton Harrison
18. Detroit--Bijan Robinson
19. TB--Hendon Hooker
20. Seattle--Nolan Smith
21. LAC--Lukas Van Ness
22. Baltimore--Zay Flowers
23. Minnesota--Quentin Johnston
24. Jacksonville--Dalton Kincaid
25. NYG--Cam Smith
26. Dallas--Brian Branch
27. Buffalo--Jordan Addison
28. Cincinnati--Michael Mayer
29. New Orleans--Bryce Breese
30. Philly--BJ Ojulari
31. KC--Jahmyr Gibbs
 

OldeBeanTowne

Member
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Dec 12, 2007
1,282
Since I screwed up, posted my last draft in the other thread and it was a ridiculous trade fest, I wanted to add my lunchtime stab. Needless to say, but this may be my favorite so far. Flowers doesn't make it to 46 in any realistic draft right?

I keep drafting Luepke, but can anyone guess the likelihood they'll bring back a focus on having a rostered FB under O'Brien? The QB pick was sort of a why not pick given I know next to nothing about the particular prospect, but have heard decent evaluations.

634386343963441
 

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gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,370
Somerville, MA
I started getting down on gaming the pfn pre rankings and taking guys who will probably never make it to where I was picking. So I did a mock without taking anyone ranked within 20 spots of the slot and oftentimes much lower.


14- Mazi Smith DT Michigan
46- Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
76- Nathaniel Dell WR Houston
107- Isaiah McGuire Edge Missouri
117- Jakorian Bennett CB Maryland
135- Juice Scruggs OC Penn State
184- Jake Witt OT Northern Michigan
187- Antonio Mafi OG UCLA
192- Michael Turk P Oklahoma
210- Jake Moody- K Michigan
 

Cellar-Door

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
I started getting down on gaming the pfn pre rankings and taking guys who will probably never make it to where I was picking. So I did a mock without taking anyone ranked within 20 spots of the slot and oftentimes much lower.


14- Mazi Smith DT Michigan
46- Luke Schoonmaker TE Michigan
76- Nathaniel Dell WR Houston
107- Isaiah McGuire Edge Missouri
117- Jakorian Bennett CB Maryland
135- Juice Scruggs OC Penn State
184- Jake Witt OT Northern Michigan
187- Antonio Mafi OG UCLA
192- Michael Turk P Oklahoma
210- Jake Moody- K Michigan
Not sure that makes sense as a strategy as you're both eliminating guys they are lower on, And guys they are higher on. All you're really seeing is... What does the draft look like if we reach by a full round on basically every board.

If you think PFN is off (who knows, outside of the top 10 or so drafts are pretty unpredictable) the better way to adjust for that is pull someone's else's board (pff, athletic, etc.) and don't take anyone who that board says shouldn't be there.
 

gammoseditor

also had a stroke
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,370
Somerville, MA
Not sure that makes sense as a strategy as you're both eliminating guys they are lower on, And guys they are higher on. All you're really seeing is... What does the draft look like if we reach by a full round on basically every board.

If you think PFN is off (who knows, outside of the top 10 or so drafts are pretty unpredictable) the better way to adjust for that is pull someone's else's board (pff, athletic, etc.) and don't take anyone who that board says shouldn't be there.
I don’t think it’s any less scientific than finding a mock where CJ Stroud is available at 14. I was more curios if the depth of the draft and seeing if I would run out of finding interesting guys. I’m not under the illusion that it’s perfect.
 

BigJimEd

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Jan 4, 2002
4,500
@OldeBeanTowne I'm with you on Luepke. I've picked him in several mocks.
Not sure BoB plans in regards to FB but Luepke in general sounds like someone BB would like. Versatile and plays all 4 STs.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
ESPN analytics launched their mock sim. https://espnsportsanalytics.com/nfl-sim
Based off their draft day predictor model.
I didn't try trades (it doesn't propose any to you), but gave it a spin.
Cool thing at the end is it shows you their projections on the chances the player you took would normally be available, and then chances they would make your next pick
63613
 

OldeBeanTowne

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Dec 12, 2007
1,282
This will be my last post for the night, but I wanted to send my second one, which I didn't hate until I saw the Bills draft. They get better with the players they drafted and take the FB @BigJimEd?
63622
Hat tip @SMU_Sox on Evans. I bet he doesn't last until #245.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
5,003
63623

traded #14 and #117 to Tampa for #19 and #50, then traded #46 and #107 to get Addison when he slid.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
11,252
Mixed bag, initially traded back from 14-19 when there were 4 players on the board I liked and of course they all went before I picked. Traded back again then traded up to 33.
Went with Washington instead of a lesser tier OL, I think BJ ends up in almost all my mocks for some reason and I'm higher on Tillman than most so was happy to get him. Surprised the ESPN mock is so low on Abanikanda and Tucker, they are going way higher in most best ball drafts I've been doing vs. the other RBs drafted in that range.

63626
 

Ferm Sheller

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Mar 5, 2007
21,557
I don't understand the point of these personal mock drafts. Why not just have a computer generate every possibility, post them all here, and lock the thread?

Jeez, I saw one mock in here having Bryce Young fall to the Pats.
 

Average Game James

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Apr 28, 2016
4,492
I don't understand the point of these personal mock drafts. Why not just have a computer generate every possibility, post them all here, and lock the thread?

Jeez, I saw one mock in here having Bryce Young fall to the Pats.
I think it’s just another way to express opinions about the draft, kind of a combination of expressing prayer/position preferences and thinking through different ways the Pats could approach position groups early/late. I know for me, I was initially really hoping to see them go after edge and CB early, but seeing the possibilities to get quality guys at those spots later in the draft I’m now having dreams of JSN or Kincaid in round 1 followed by Schoonmaker in the 3rd. Plus, it’s just kinda fun.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
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Mar 5, 2007
21,557
I think it’s just another way to express opinions about the draft, kind of a combination of expressing prayer/position preferences and thinking through different ways the Pats could approach position groups early/late. I know for me, I was initially really hoping to see them go after edge and CB early, but seeing the possibilities to get quality guys at those spots later in the draft I’m now having dreams of JSN or Kincaid in round 1 followed by Schoonmaker in the 3rd. Plus, it’s just kinda fun.
I see. I've always found the whole mock draft thing kinda funny. There are a million of them out there, each one is updated radically like every two days, and combined they have the Pats taking, no joke, about 35 different players.
 

pappymojo

Member
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Jul 28, 2010
6,758
I don't understand the point of these personal mock drafts. Why not just have a computer generate every possibility, post them all here, and lock the thread?

Jeez, I saw one mock in here having Bryce Young fall to the Pats.
for the 3 I posted immediately prior to your post, I was playing with where they draft OT. First one was BPA and didn’t get an OT until 135. In the next Carter fell to 14 and I played that out. Still took an OT at 46 and then again later in the draft. In the third one, I took an OT at 14. I like all 3 but find that WR dries up quickly regardless.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
I don't understand the point of these personal mock drafts. Why not just have a computer generate every possibility, post them all here, and lock the thread?

Jeez, I saw one mock in here having Bryce Young fall to the Pats.
mostly they are fun, but also they can give you an idea of how stuff might fall based on different draft boards, and simulations that often take into account team need, etc.
i like to do them once a week because you can start seeing who is rising and falling, and that is often based on consensus views of players and/or leaks coming from teams, maybe some feedback from visits, medical leaks, etc.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
35,735
ONE WEEK OUT:

PFN:
14- Traded with 245 to NO for 29 and 40
29- Dalton Kincaid TE Utah
40- Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
46- Jack Campbell LB Iowa
76- Matthew Bergeron OT Syracuse
107- Carter Warren OT Pitt
117- Jonathan Mingo WR Ole Miss
135- Myles Brooks CB La Tech
184- Payne Durham TE Purdue
187-Ali Gaye Edge LSU
192- Michael Turk P Oklahoma
210- Jake Moody K Michigan

FANSPEAKS
63751

MOCKDRAFT DATABASE:
63753
63754

ESPNANALYTICS

63756
 

OldeBeanTowne

Member
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Dec 12, 2007
1,282
I like all those @Cellar-Door especially the one with PFN. Here are the few I've done since posting last.
Before I knew the recent "character" concerns.
63767
63768
If Bijan falls, I don't know squat, but with the way folks are talking, if he's there I'd assume you take him.
63770
If they go defense first.
6377163772
Possibly my favorite. Double up on TE at the top.
63773
 

Attachments

Norm loves Vera

Joe wants Trump to burn
SoSH Member
Dec 25, 2003
5,677
Peace Dale, RI
I did 8 straight drafts with some trading early and some no trading. Here is my last one and I have discovered Luepke is my binky. I took him at 202 in first draft and the stat next to the pick said there was an 80% chance he would be there in 224 my next pick. I went thru a few espn rounds and didn't take him late 100s and he was never there by my next pick. Not sure why I want a fullback so bad, but I do. Here is my last one.

63844
 

Jimbodandy

Member
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Jan 31, 2006
12,366
around the way
I did 8 straight drafts with some trading early and some no trading. Here is my last one and I have discovered Luepke is my binky. I took him at 202 in first draft and the stat next to the pick said there was an 80% chance he would be there in 224 my next pick. I went thru a few espn rounds and didn't take him late 100s and he was never there by my next pick. Not sure why I want a fullback so bad, but I do. Here is my last one.

View attachment 63844
Norm, I'm curious why you would spend that much high draft capital on a running back and guard? Obviously wouldn't kill us to have some depth there, and I totally get if you're not enamored with the tackle options available where you picked, but it seems like a waste of opportunity with the other needs.