2023 Draft Fits

Shelterdog

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I’m Addison for life. I think he’s quite fast (and he did run a 10.85 100m in high school which is solid) and I could see him as the z receiver for the Pats or even in some circumstances the x and not just a slot. I also think he’s going to rock up the draft boards now that more coaches are looking at tape and they’re going to see a dude who gets open and catches balls which is the basic point of the position
 

j44thor

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Don’t really like that comp. He’a twenty pounds thinner, he is shiftier, but not as fast and unlike Diggs his natural position will be slot. He’s also not as fast.

And respectfully JSN is not a top 5 let alone 10 or maybe even 15 pick. He’s a slower slot only guy that many had as a late first to second round guy. Even if he had a repeat of 2021. Not happening.

Speed isn’t everything with receivers but JSN runs a 4.6ish 40 and while I like him that’s just not going to get you drafted that high.
Completely respect your opinion, you watch more tape in a weekend than I watch in a year but how does a 4.6 slot WR go for 1600 yds and average 17 YPC as a 19YO? Jakobi Meyers is a 4.6 slot receiver. If JSN busts he will be a huge outlier. Outside of AL there isn't a better WR program than TOSU these days and JSN was the most productive of what could be the best WR group of all time.
 

BigSoxFan

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Zay Flowers is a very good player. Love to have him on the team. But in the second round? At his size? I don't see the value of spending a #2 pick on a slot WR (apologies to W. Welker). I'd rather throw a fourth rounder at Rakim Jarrett. Or, if we're going WR in round 2, I'm looking at Rashee Rice. Or trading down in round 1 for Jalin Hyatt. Also, I know nothing.
He really isn’t a traditional slot WR though. He can play outside and would be a guy you move around. His hands are actually not that elite, which is obviously problematic for anyone operating in the slot or mostly in the slot. I’m a BC grad who has watched a ton of Zay and think he has potential to be an impact player but I think there will be an adjustment period to NFL size/athleticism. Would love to see him go to a dome/warm weather team where his speed will play better. Also really curious to see where he tests at combine.
 

Cellar-Door

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Completely respect your opinion, you watch more tape in a weekend than I watch in a year but how does a 4.6 slot WR go for 1600 yds and average 17 YPC as a 19YO? Jakobi Meyers is a 4.6 slot receiver. If JSN busts he will be a huge outlier. Outside of AL there isn't a better WR program than TOSU these days and JSN was the most productive of what could be the best WR group of all time.
I mean, Antonio Gandy-Golden had a huge SO year like that (and a 4.6 40 time), so did Tylan Wallace (4.5 40time), Anthony Miller was a JR but similar, Rashard Higgins was a 4.6 slot guy who was a monster in college early.

College stats are not particularly predictive of NFL outcomes.
 

j44thor

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I mean, Antonio Gandy-Golden had a huge SO year like that (and a 4.6 40 time), so did Tylan Wallace (4.5 40time), Anthony Miller was a JR but similar, Rashard Higgins was a 4.6 slot guy who was a monster in college early.

College stats are not particularly predictive of NFL outcomes.
I agree 100% college stats aren't very predictive but programs are. AGG went to Liberty which has produced... exactly. Sure you can get lucky and find a Cooper Kupp out of East Washington U or an Edeleman from Kent St. but I'll take my chances with a productive AL, OSU, LSU WR all day, any day. Just those 3 programs generated in no particular order: Waddle, Devontae Smith, Chris Olave, Garret Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Ja"Maar Chase, Jerry Jeudy, Jameson Williams, Terry McLaurin.

Colleges are really good at recruiting WRs which is why the creme rise to the top. There will always be outliers from small colleges that break through but I'd rather buy 4 $25 scratch tickets than 4 $1 scratch tickets.
 
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SMU_Sox

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Maybe 4.6 is harsh. 4.55? Brugler said on his podcast he expected him to run between IIRC a 4.55-4.65. When I do him I’ll show you where he is getting caught by safeties from behind. It happens more than you’d want. It would be one thing if he could play outside or he was a huge target but he isn’t. I think he’s a very good player, don’t get me wrong and I think speed for slot receivers is overrated but I also know what kinds of prospects go top 5 and it isn’t him.
 

Bowser

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He really isn’t a traditional slot WR though. He can play outside and would be a guy you move around. His hands are actually not that elite, which is obviously problematic for anyone operating in the slot or mostly in the slot. I’m a BC grad who has watched a ton of Zay and think he has potential to be an impact player but I think there will be an adjustment period to NFL size/athleticism. Would love to see him go to a dome/warm weather team where his speed will play better. Also really curious to see where he tests at combine.
You could easily be right about Flowers. But there's this tension between players I like versus those who seem to fit into our system and thus are likely to be drafted by BB. Other teams have players like Zay Flowers, so why can't we? We can't because we'll be too busy drafting a CB and OT, and Flowers will be gone.

For example, I'm a fan of Nick Herbig, LB, Wisconsin. He popped when I was watching Leo Chenal last year. Herbig is lightning off the edge, but at 228 lbs, I can't see the Pats drafting him. Now, I've watched Matt Milano enough to know there's a place in the league for LBs under 230. And we're always talking about needing to get faster on defense, but then we continue to sign ILB/OLBs in the 250-260 lbs range. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

BigSoxFan

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You could easily be right about Flowers. But there's this tension between players I like versus those who seem to fit into our system and thus are likely to be drafted by BB. Other teams have players like Zay Flowers, so why can't we? We can't because we'll be too busy drafting a CB and OT, and Flowers will be gone.

For example, I'm a fan of Nick Herbig, LB, Wisconsin. He popped when I was watching Leo Chenal last year. Herbig is lightning off the edge, but at 228 lbs, I can't see the Pats drafting him. Now, I've watched Matt Milano enough to know there's a place in the league for LBs under 230. And we're always talking about needing to get faster on defense, but then we continue to sign ILB/OLBs in the 250-260 lbs range. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yeah, I 100% want Zay on the Pats. He’s a great YAC guy and we don’t seem to have a lot of that on this team.
 

GB5

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I don’t want Bill and his staff evaluating a wide receiver with a top 15 pick.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
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I agree. I don't see a WR or an OT worthy of the 14th pick. The Johnsons, Quentin (WR) and Paris (OT), both feel a little like projects -- and they'll likely be taken before we pick anyway. I'm guessing we're looking at a CB or maybe edge in the first round.

Edit: Ooops, Quentin is a Johnston.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
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TE binkies anyone? Jonnu is borderline useless and Henry's slow and good for only 2.5 catches a game. I'd love to get Darnell Washington, Georgia, in Round 2 or Cade Stover, Ohio State, in Round 3. But I'm not sure either will be there for us. Was very intrigued by Brevyn Spann-Ford, but it sounds like he's returning to Minnesota for a sixth year.
 

SMU_Sox

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I am going through offensive linemen currently. There are some guys I love for them at IOL. The guys I am going to list here are what the Patriots look for: 1) Smart, 2) Tough, 3) Athletic Enough.

I am not sure where these guys are going to go - I can tell you where I have them but I also know for some guys, like for example, Steve Avila, I am higher on than most.

Here are a couple of cutups I posted of Avila:

View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1617080417051447298?s=20&t=fKkJf8aubf0ypvL0J_HiUg


I think they should take an IOL type in round 3 or 4 who hopefully can play both center and guard. Avila played center for two years and left guard for 2 more. He is more of their traditional RG prototype and a little bigger than normal for them at OC but he's fleet of foot enough as a run blocker that he can do what Andrews does. He is also sound in pass pro - although a shifty fast rusher might be able to get his corner. He's smart and good with his hands in pass pro and has a nice anchor.

Jarrett Patterson, ND, is probably best at center but can also play OG. He doesn't have great power but he is very smooth, technically sound in pass pro and as a run blocker and plays very smart. He's an above average athlete.

Cody Mauch from North Dakota State University is an animal. Guy plays with his hair on fire. View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1602925291743191040?s=20&t=fKkJf8aubf0ypvL0J_HiUg

Mauch needs to add core strength though and improve his anchor in pass pro. He is likely a starting OG and backup OT as he doesn't have the length there.

I don't think they will draft him where he will end up going but Luke Wypler from Ohio State is a gem. He and John Michael Schmitz are two of my favorites.
View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1616872060239728643?s=20&t=fKkJf8aubf0ypvL0J_HiUg


Wypler and Schmitz could play OG but have only played OC in college.

O'Cyrrus Torrence is a fit but he's going round 1 or 2 most likely and he is more of a RG profile for them.

Last guy is Emil Ekiyor from Bama. He's high hipped and not the most athletic but he does enough as a run blocker to go with being sound in pass pro to think about late day 3.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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TE binkies anyone? Jonnu is borderline useless and Henry's slow and good for only 2.5 catches a game. I'd love to get Darnell Washington, Georgia, in Round 2 or Cade Stover, Ohio State, in Round 3. But I'm not sure either will be there for us. Was very intrigued by Brevyn Spann-Ford, but it sounds like he's returning to Minnesota for a sixth year.
After reading your post the first thing that popped into my head was that BB won't be able to resist taking the big Notre Dame TE Mayer if he is still on the board at 14.
 

twibnotes

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TE binkies anyone? Jonnu is borderline useless and Henry's slow and good for only 2.5 catches a game. I'd love to get Darnell Washington, Georgia, in Round 2 or Cade Stover, Ohio State, in Round 3. But I'm not sure either will be there for us. Was very intrigued by Brevyn Spann-Ford, but it sounds like he's returning to Minnesota for a sixth year.

Some bias here bc I’m a Michigan fan but I did watch them play a ton and like CT native Luke Schoonmaker if he slides past second round. Very physical, good blocker, and I think he’s a much better receiver than the numbers would indicate. Once they started opening things up, he was a very effective part of the passing game. He’s also a guy they lined up in the backfield as a blocker - some versatility there
 

Cellar-Door

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Some bias here bc I’m a Michigan fan but I did watch them play a ton and like CT native Luke Schoonmaker if he slides past second round. Very physical, good blocker, and I think he’s a much better receiver than the numbers would indicate. Once they started opening things up, he was a very effective part of the passing game. He’s also a guy they lined up in the backfield as a blocker - some versatility there
Well the staff will get a nice long look at him, he's on the West Roster for the Shire game, so they'll be coaching him:
https://shrinebowl.com/west-roster/
 

Jake Peavy's Demons

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I've been doing research on the following positions: OL (namely T), WR, TE, CB, LB, & S.

For the OL draft class, there are names that at this very moment in time, seem like options in Round 2.

Cody Mauch
Darnell Wright
Dawand Jones

Is there a chance that O'Cyrus Torrence could be a pick? Now, I really don't want that to be a Round 1.14 pick and if they did draft him, much prefer a trade down. But I am wondering if the idea of Torrence would be to slot him at RG, & move Onwenu again to either T spot.

I am trying to recall Onwenu's performance at either T position, and went to PFR to have a look at snap counts per position, but he latest season just has him listed as a "OL".

I really would just love an overhaul on the line & my dream would be: Mauch/Strange/Andrews/Onwenu/Darnell Wright or Dawand Jones.

I feel Brian Branch would help the safety outlook. There's some good corners too (already covered upthread), but maybe some available in Round 2? I feel the dropoff between Branch at S, & a couple of WRs are high, & feel it's probably best to go after 1 of them & then go OL in Round 2-beyond.

I'm not sure I'm sold on the WRs like some here, & wonder if there's a premiere player who can line up outside and not in the slot available for trade.

Lastly, at LB, I like Noah Sewell, but not sure when he's expected to go. I like Nolan Smith too, but we'd have to grab him 1.14 or trade up, I feel.
 

j44thor

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Darnell Wright currently projected as a mid 2nd but I wonder if he gets some helium depending on how the combine goes.
This film breakdown vs. a top 5 pick in the draft Will Anderson is pretty sexy for OL play. I'd say Wright wins about 75% of the reps if not more.
When you compare how Wright handled Anderson vs. how much another highly rated SEC T Broderick Jones struggled with LSU's Ojulari it is really eye opening.
Wright has such a strong anchor and processes so quickly you would think he is a day 1 starter vs. Jones who will likely test better than any OT at the combine but appears quite raw in pass pro despite not giving up any "sacks" last year.
 

SMU_Sox

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Another thing where I am probably on an island but... I have Wright > Jones.

60441

That's how I see them right now. And yeah my slack name is and has been Darnell Wright Hive sine mid-December lol. I love him.
 

j44thor

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@SMU_Sox have you watched much tape on Parris Johnson? I'm seeing him consistently mocked to NJY at 13 and wondering how he compares with Wright/Jones. Not a lot of reps at LT but that wingspan is really impressive. Probably needs to add 20-30 lbs but seems to have really high ceiling and higher floor than Jones. If he makes it to 14 would he make sense vs. say a trade down with the hopes of nabbing Wright a bit later and another day 2 pick?
 

SMU_Sox

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He is an excellent zone run blocker. Very athletic. Still raw in terms of some aspects of pass pro and use of hands but more advanced than Brod. Better power than him too. He’s a 7.75 to me. Pro bowl traits but needs consistent technique development.
 

Bowser

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Would you favor picking Paris Johnson at #14? My inexpert take is he seems a bit raw, the value isn't quite there, and I'd rather focus on another position (e.g., CB, DE), depending on who's available, of course. Or trade back for a different OT. Also, I know Darnell Wright played LT in 2021. Any chance he can stick at LT in the NFL? Does he move well enough?

Sorry ... I know you're early in your analysis. Much appreciated!
 

Shelterdog

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You know, with J. Jones at contracts end and DMC getting older defensive backfield is a reasonable need for this team, 14 is a pretty nice slot to get a corner in general, and Witherspoon/Gonzalez/Cam Smith/Joey Porter Jr/Brian Branch all look like pretty good picks. I bet they snag one of those guys at like 17 and pick up a fourth.
 

SMU_Sox

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Would you favor picking Paris Johnson at #14? My inexpert take is he seems a bit raw, the value isn't quite there, and I'd rather focus on another position (e.g., CB, DE), depending on who's available, of course. Or trade back for a different OT. Also, I know Darnell Wright played LT in 2021. Any chance he can stick at LT in the NFL? Does he move well enough?

Sorry ... I know you're early in your analysis. Much appreciated!
I'd take Paris at 14, yes, if they want to go that direction.

Darnell can probably play LT at the NFL but I think you want to pair him with Onwenu. His best play came at RT and if he prefers RT then imo he should stay there. His movement skills are good enough to play LT, yes.
 

Cellar-Door

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Was looking at last year's thread....
Really hope Reiss does an article with Jim Nagy from the Senior Bowl. Looked back, Reiss asked him to name a couple players he thought fit the Patriots from the Senior Bowl.
He named 5 guys.... 1 got drafted before our pick, 1 was Cole Strange, 1 was Marcus Jones.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Was looking at last year's thread....
Really hope Reiss does an article with Jim Nagy from the Senior Bowl. Looked back, Reiss asked him to name a couple players he thought fit the Patriots from the Senior Bowl.
He named 5 guys.... 1 got drafted before our pick, 1 was Cole Strange, 1 was Marcus Jones.
That is...pretty impressive. Especially with Cole Strange being a poster child for the sub-forum name.
 

Cellar-Door

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That is...pretty impressive. Especially with Cole Strange being a poster child for the sub-forum name.
yeah, he was a Patriots' mid-west area scout in the mid 2000s, so he clearly has an idea what Bill looks for. Gonna keep an eye out for stuff from him this year as we get closer to the draft.
 

SMU_Sox

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That is...pretty impressive. Especially with Cole Strange being a poster child for the sub-forum name.
To be fair some of us had him as a fringe top 50 player last year ;).

Now to everyone else... Who here wants to do a film review of my binkie RT this year, Darnell Wright? I want to show case two of his games. Vs Alabama and vs LSU. You will see him vs the pass rushers in the country and shutting them down.

Just PM me your email and I’ll set up a zoom for Sunday February 5th. It’s going to be fun!!
 
Apr 24, 2019
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Phil Perry’s NextPats podcast often has Nagy on. That podcast is great in terms of draft talk, and I expect Evan Lazar’s ALL-22 podcast (reunited with Alex Barth and it feels so good) and his written work for patriots.com to be top-notch, as well.
 

Cellar-Door

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7 players to watch on the Patriots’ coached team at the East-West Shrine Bowl

Flowers discussed along with
UCLA WR Jake Bobo
Minnesota RB Mohamed Ibrahim
Pittsburgh DE Habakkuk Baldonado
UAB CB Starling Thomas V
Michigan K Jake Moody


Another name I'd add to the list is QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Could be worth a late rounder if they like what they see. O'Connell from Purdue reportedly has impressed for the East.
I'm intrigued by Telfort as a late round pick as well. He was one of the Florida recruits who got booted over the credit card thing, kicked around Community college then went to UAB. Concerns about how he handles speed on the edge, but he's huge at 6'7"-6'8" with 37" arms and he slimmed down to 317 (also a captain which Bill loves).