2023-2024 Celtics Wins Poll

2023-2024 Regular Season Wins


  • Total voters
    239

slamminsammya

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Jul 31, 2006
10,211
San Francisco
Yeah but somebody in the Yankee application thread told me empirical data are better than basic stats. I also thought it was interesting (I.e. counter to theory) that the variance on their 3 pt % was almost exactly equal to the variance on their 2 pt %. And that the expected value of the two were almost exactly equal.
hehehe

I think we've discovered that treating game to game 3p% as a Bernoulli variable of a fixed likelihood is not a good model. which, yeah - it depends on who is shooting the threes in each game, where they are etc etc.
 

Imbricus

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Jan 26, 2017
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I can see 58, maybe 59. But there's always the injury risk hanging out there, they're thin on bigs, and all teams go through a crappy stretch or two (plus, of course, if they're smart they won't prioritize regular season wins over playoff longevity).
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
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Jul 15, 2005
38,701
Hingham, MA
Lol, settle down you guys. There are only 3-4 patsies in the entire league right now (WAS, CHA, DET, maybe PDX?) and even they seem much feistier than your average bottom-feeder 7-8 years ago. Then throw in the endless grind of the regular season, with B2Bs, injuries, load management, etc.? 55 wins is a *really* good season given the depth of talent in the league right now, and the nature of variance. And while the Cs look like the best the team in the league #1-6, chemistry takes time.

In Rocco's honor, I'll eat a Wild Harvest Stuffed Log if the Cs or any other team get to 64.
I think you're going to slide on this by the skin of your teeth. Currently 49-14, so would take 15-4 to get to 64-18.
63-19, 16-8
Ale is going to have bingo when it's all said and done.
 

Devizier

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Jul 3, 2000
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I was at 56-59, I recognized this team’s ceiling, I just thought they’d drop more games due to off nights, resting starters, etc.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,848
Pittsburgh, PA
I was at 52-55. Just thought we outperformed last year and would be more injured this year. Did not expect the team to reach Ubuntu levels of teamwork this fast. Could not possibly be happier to have been wrong.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jul 19, 2005
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NYC
Dammit, I was hoping no one would revive this thread! Cs have the single easiest remaining schedule in the league, and only have to close the season 15-4 or better to get to 64 wins and make me eat a “wild harvest stuffed logz.” C’mon Joe Mazz, get these guys some rest games!!
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
31,544
Dammit, I was hoping no one would revive this thread! Cs have the single easiest remaining schedule in the league, and only have to close the season 15-4 or better to get to 64 wins and make me eat a “wild harvest stuffed logz.” C’mon Joe Mazz, get these guys some rest games!!
You have a plan for how to do this in case the Cs do reach 64? :cool:
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
13,261
I was at 52-55. Just thought we outperformed last year and would be more injured this year. Did not expect the team to reach Ubuntu levels of teamwork this fast. Could not possibly be happier to have been wrong.
Me too. I thought they could hit the level of chemistry they have now, but that it would take a lot longer to find it, and they could/would scuffle in the meantime.
 

Euclis20

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Aug 3, 2004
8,642
Imaginationland
It's also helped that they've been very fortunate in terms of health. Their 8 man lineup has been nearly perfect in that regard - Holiday (elbow or shoulder, can't remember exactly) and White (personal reasons) both missed two straight in November, KP missed four straight (calf) around the same time and back to back games in late January (ankle), and that's it. Nobody else has missed as many as two straight games, and most absences were really just for rest.

Not that they haven't been excellent when missing 1-2 guys, but it's a lot easier to maximize your wins when it's mid-March and none of your core group has suffered any major injuries.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
20,871
Santa Monica
60-64 and bet the OVER (54.5)

The rest of my Over/Unders are fine.
Knicks & Kings both look good.
Bucks will struggle to get to 55, despite @the moops protestations

The "Fence" ones are working but got lucky with Philly.
:cool: #amIright

Here are my 4 favorite NBA Over/Unders, feel free to rip now or during the season
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

OVERS
Kings 44.5
- 48 wins last season. Focused, little player turnover. Mike Brown building a culture there. Don't get this one.
Knicks 45.5 - 47 wins last season. Same group. The addition of Donte/Hart will put them into the top 4 in the EC (C's, MIL, NYK, CAVs)
Celtics 54.5 - 57 wins last season. Better starters. Better HC + Asst coaching. More Derrick White at the end of games. JAYs a season older.

UNDER
Bucks 54.5
- it's going to take time to come together. Stotts exiting on a Rookie HC pushed me to look at the Bucks a little more closely. Old Man risk here with Middleton's knee. Dame. Lopezes. Crowder. Giannis entering season 10, so they should start handling him with more care. Extremely Veteran Group (Portis, Connaughton, Cam Payne are all entering their 8th season) won't give a damn about the regular season.

Two on the Fence about:
Wanted to take the 76ers UNDER but besides having the NBA MVP in his prime, they have players after Harden to get this group to 50 wins.

I'd like to take the OVER on HOU at 31.5 with IME holding the kids accountable but the WEST is going to be brutal and it's going to take a while for IME's message to get through.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
20,871
Santa Monica
You certainly nailed the East top 4. Was pretty bold assuming Philly wouldn't be in the mix, and that Cleveland would be.
Thanks. Not sure the Knicks can hold off Orlando with so many guys down

Philly is much more cooked than I thought. They are incredibly Embiid dependent (9-20 without him). They go from a 50-win team to a 30-win team with JoJo sidelined. That's his MVP case if he ever plays 65 games in a season again (doubtful).
Wondering WTF Morey has up his sleeve this summer, besides FA money?

Middleton is toast, hearing he just can't get right after an ankle injury. Bucks better make a playoff run this season, that group is aging quickly.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jul 19, 2005
8,907
NYC
You have a plan for how to do this in case the Cs do reach 64? :cool:
I feel like I’d need to at least buy one from Amazon in honor of Rocco. Then I might try a bite, but given that one of the main ingredients is wood chips, probably leave the rest for the squirrels.

Hoping for 63-19…
 
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tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,701
Hingham, MA
I feel like I’d need to at least buy one from Amazon in honor of Rocco. Then I might try a bite, but given that one of the main ingredients is wood chips, probably leave the rest for the squirrels.

Hoping for 63-19…
BUMP. 54-14, so 10-4 needed for the log. I'm sure you're rooting HARD for a Bucks win tomorrow.
 

TripleOT

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Jul 4, 2007
8,066
Nine of Bostons’ 16 losses were either OT or one possession losses (3 points or less). It takes a lot to beat this team. Boston has to do a lot of bad things, and the opposition has to do a lot of good things to squeeze out a win. Not being able to score in last possessions in one possession losses is concerning.
 

bosockboy

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Jul 15, 2005
20,501
St. Louis, MO
Nine of Bostons’ 16 losses were either OT or one possession losses (3 points or less). It takes a lot to beat this team. Boston has to do a lot of bad things, and the opposition has to do a lot of good things to squeeze out a win. Not being able to score in last possessions in one possession losses is concerning.
And not getting a ton of reps here concerns me the most.
 

JakeRae

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Jul 21, 2005
8,284
New York, NY
I had 62-63 wins, so I need them to go 2-4 or 3-3. Pretty sure they can manage that.
With five home games left, 2-4 seems very unlikely. They play at 90% at home and three of their opponents are bad teams that should be trying to avoid wins. The Knicks, Bucks, and Sacramento are all likely to show up to their games since they are all playing for seeding and lack separation. The Knicks will be playing us on night 1 of a B2B and have two easy games to close out their season after, so it’s also possible they rest players against us if they are in a reasonable place from a seeding perspective. The Kings will be on the second night of a road B2B with the Knicks tonight, so while I expect them to show up I wouldn’t expect them to be at their best.

That, coupled with how well this team plays when it sits half its top 6, means that I’d bet on 4-2 or better to close out the season.
 

TripleOT

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Jul 4, 2007
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Boston got to 60+ wins the way championship teams in the past got there, by winning over 90% of home games, and beating up on non-playoff teams (which now includes play-in teams)

Boston is 44-6 against non playoff and play-in teams. They have lost only three home games.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,848
Pittsburgh, PA
Dammit, I was hoping no one would revive this thread! Cs have the single easiest remaining schedule in the league, and only have to close the season 15-4 or better to get to 64 wins and make me eat a “wild harvest stuffed logz.” C’mon Joe Mazz, get these guys some rest games!!
Just make sure there's video of the ceremony.

 

Sam Ray Not

Member
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Jul 19, 2005
8,907
NYC
Just make sure there's video of the ceremony.

One Wild Harvest Stuffed Logz, just ordered on Amazon! We’ll see what I can do about making it edible, lol.

You Celtics are good … real good. The best? We shall see.

I gotta say, in my defense, I was totally onboard with the Cs being the best team in the league. I just thought given the depth of talent in the league, the increased focus on player rest, and the nature of three point variance, 62+ wins was a crazy tough lift for anyone. And that applied to 29 of the 30 teams. I did not have the Cs being 14 games better than anyone else in the East on my bingo card!

Anyway, congrats, and let the real season begin…
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
31,544
One Wild Harvest Stuffed Logz, just ordered on Amazon! We’ll see what I can do about making it edible, lol.

You Celtics are good … real good. The best? We shall see.

I gotta say, in my defense, I was totally onboard with the Cs being the best team in the league. I just thought given the depth of talent in the league, the increased focus on player rest, and the nature of three point variance, 62+ wins was a crazy tough lift for anyone. And that applied to 29 of the 30 teams. I did not have the Cs being 14 games better than anyone else in the East on my bingo card!

Anyway, congrats, and let the real season begin…
You’re a good person. Seems like it’s mostly edible (we eat sawdust more than one thinks) but to my mind, a small taste would be sufficient to honor Rocco.

What a season!81007
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,871
Santa Monica
One Wild Harvest Stuffed Logz, just ordered on Amazon! We’ll see what I can do about making it edible, lol.

You Celtics are good … real good. The best? We shall see.

I gotta say, in my defense, I was totally onboard with the Cs being the best team in the league. I just thought given the depth of talent in the league, the increased focus on player rest, and the nature of three point variance, 62+ wins was a crazy tough lift for anyone. And that applied to 29 of the 30 teams. I did not have the Cs being 14 games better than anyone else in the East on my bingo card!

Anyway, congrats, and let the real season begin…
microwaveable? It can't be any worse than a Hot Pocket if you slather it in tomato sauce. JK

It's been a long winter, donate it to your local park. The squirrels will thank you.

Your mea culpa is more than sufficient...
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,848
Pittsburgh, PA
yeah, or - wasn't there some charity that Rocco's widow asked people to donate to in lieu of stuff for the funeral? Whatever one that was, I'll match some dollars going to there if someone is so inclined. His passion for the Cs is a wonderful legacy that made fans (or bigger fans) out of some here, and he would've loved this season so much.
 

riboflav

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Jan 20, 2006
10,089
NOVA
Lol, settle down you guys. There are only 3-4 patsies in the entire league right now (WAS, CHA, DET, maybe PDX?) and even they seem much feistier than your average bottom-feeder 7-8 years ago. Then throw in the endless grind of the regular season, with B2Bs, injuries, load management, etc.? 55 wins is a *really* good season given the depth of talent in the league right now, and the nature of variance. And while the Cs look like the best the team in the league #1-6, chemistry takes time.

In Rocco's honor, I'll eat a Wild Harvest Stuffed Log if the Cs or any other team get to 64.
NM I’m late to the party
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jul 19, 2005
8,907
NYC
Looks like the inside is relatively edible, actually. Hoping the poplar (“filet mignon of wood shavings” as it may be) is mostly in the hard shell (which is apparently edible, for rabbits and squirrels, anyway….)

My other issue is the plastic packet came open in the soft Amazon pack, but what are the chances anyone would want to tamper with squirrel food? Hmm…
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,848
Pittsburgh, PA
The presentation there is worthy of a Michelin Star, and got a big laugh from me.

Rocky and Bullwinkle better realize how good they've got it.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jul 19, 2005
8,907
NYC
Okay, had a little taste with coffee this morning. A good mouthful for a chipmunk, if not a rabbit or giant NYC squirrel. Not bad at all! Possibly even tasty enough to make it an unsatisfying L for some, but I figure that and the $5 price tag (together with the risk that the Amazon delivery guy is a squirrel hater who poisoned the open packet) covers my Port Cellar debt. I assume (hope?) that’s farther than our dear Rocco went with his famous promise?
 
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InstaFace

The Ultimate One
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Sep 27, 2016
22,848
Pittsburgh, PA
Okay, had a little taste with coffee this morning. A good mouthful for a chipmunk, if not a rabbit or giant NYC squirrel. Not bad at all! Possibly even tasty enough to make it an unsatisfying L for some, but I figure that and the $5 price tag (together with the risk that the Amazon delivery guy is a squirrel hater who poisoned the open packet) covers my Port Cellar debt. I assume (hope?) that’s farther than our dear Rocco went with his famous promise?
81080

Just for this I'll root for the Dubs tonight.

And yeah I think we were too busy celebrating the title to hold Rocco to his particulars. It just lives on in legend.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
31,544
Okay, had a little taste with coffee this morning. A good mouthful for a chipmunk, if not a rabbit or giant NYC squirrel. Not bad at all! Possibly even tasty enough to make it an unsatisfying L for some, but I figure that and the $5 price tag (together with the risk that the Amazon delivery guy is a squirrel hater who poisoned the open packet) covers my Port Cellar debt. I assume (hope?) that’s farther than our dear Rocco went with his famous promise?
I believe that is correct - Rocco never followed through on his vow. https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/celtics-vs-warriors-nba-finals.36673/page-22#post-5044688