2021 MLB offseason - news and notes

jon abbey

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o/u on how many of these he ever collects?
I think that's why it's well structured, a lot of guaranteed money for a guy who can't stay on the field but who would likely be a $30M/year player if he could.
 

DeadlySplitter

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1M signing bonus / 9M salary next season, 15M salary next 6 years after.

it’s not as crippling as one would have thought if he flames out with this structure, although it could be a poison pill for a number of years.
 

DeadlySplitter

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As far as near term effects on AL competitiveness, that’s fine by me

7 years is also a ton, he is 31!
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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7 years for Semien? Jeez. These deals all seem insane. Not gonna be easy to re-up X or Devers, is it? (Gonna cost like $450M to do it, IMO). Ugh.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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7 years for Semien? Jeez. These deals all seem insane. Not gonna be easy to re-up X or Devers, is it?
It was never going to be easy to extend either of them.

This off-season has been remarkable in how much money has been tossed around so far, and the biggest names are still on the board. Makes me think that the CBA may not be the big battle we all anticipate. Or at least, the outcome isn't so unknown that teams are concerned about caps or revenue redistribution affecting their bottom lines much.
 

nattysez

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That Semien signing feels like the kind of signing that keeps a bad team bad.

I just went on MLB.com to review the Rangers' roster and had to double-check that I wasn't looking at their AAA roster. If you'd given me an hour, I don't think I could've named 3 guys on the Rangers' active roster, including Semien.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sure, but there were many who seemed think Bogaerts would take 4 years at around $25M and that Devers could be had for 6-7 at around the same per? Think those pipe dreams can be put to rest.
 

chawson

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Man, good for Buxton and the Twins.

I love Semien but damn that’s gonna be a regrettable one. Gotta think they go for it on Kershaw now.
 

Scoops Bolling

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I get the idea, I don't love the fit. The Rangers have a ton of pre-arb guys already on the roster and they're hardly a small market team so they have ample room in the budget to make additions. While I could see some of their young talent taking steps forward, even if everyone progresses there's still not enough pitching in the next couple of years for the team to realistically do much anything barring a top 5% outcome. It's a tough place for an organization like that. They have a lot of cheap pieces you can talk yourself into, and the budget to go out and make additions, and given the condition of their farm system they know a rebuild wouldn't be a particularly overnight one. It's not like they want to go out and trade away Dunning, Lowe, Garcia, Huff, etc., and most of those guys haven't proven enough to get that great a return anyway. But at the same time, the cheapness of the current squad is its biggest strength, it's really not particularly good, and they still need so much more talent if they want to contend that this seems destined to fail. It just feels a year early to do this, and if you're going to drop this kind of cash, why do it on the guy who probably isn't going to be good on the schedule of all your other young pieces? Why not go Correa or Seager if you're willing to drop term that deeply into a guys 30s?
 
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curly2

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7 years for Semien? Jeez. These deals all seem insane. Not gonna be easy to re-up X or Devers, is it? (Gonna cost like $450M to do it, IMO). Ugh.
It was never going to be easy to extend either of them.
Forgive me for repeating myself, but I think the time to make a run at a Devers extension was before the 2021 season, off his relatively poor COVID season, when his agent might have gone for a reasonable (but fair) deal. According to Alex Speier, they didn't make a big push. I think that was a mistake on Bloom's part as the price and years undoubtedly went up after this season.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I was kind of hoping Toronto would keep that team together, because they were fun but I don't blame them for going in a different direction.
 

scottyno

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Sure, but there were many who seemed think Bogaerts would take 4 years at around $25M and that Devers could be had for 6-7 at around the same per? Think those pipe dreams can be put to rest.
Devers still could be because they're buying out the arb years, if he signed for about 6-150 today they'd essentially be getting 4 free agency years at 31-32m a year and he'd be set up to be a free agent at age 30 and still able to cash in on a big deal.

No one thought they could get Bogaerts at 4-100ish.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Man, good for Buxton and the Twins.

I love Semien but damn that’s gonna be a regrettable one. Gotta think they go for it on Kershaw now.
Buxton did well to get a solid base amount, but I'd still much rather have the Buxton deal than Semien's. As a ceiling play, the Twins would end up paying less for Buck over 7 years - assuming he wins the MVP each year! - than Semien gets guaranteed. Semien's a much better bet to play, but man, that's a lot of years. If Brian Dozier had got a 7 year deal after setting the 2B HR record, he'd still have 2 years left. And he's been cooked for 2 years.
 

opes

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As long as Buxton can be 75% healthy, thats a hell of a deal for the twins. I havent seen if there is a no-trade, but if there isnt, thats a great deal for them.

Edit: Buxton’s new 7-year deal (full no-trade clause) is worth a starting salary of $15 million per year (100 million total), which was the number he’s been asking for all along. And it comes with HEAVY incentives, which include “unprecedented” extra $$$ for placing 1-10 in the MVP race.
 

E5 Yaz

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I hate the idea of the lockout, but I must say i've been enjoying this past week
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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All this spending has to be seen as a positive for labor negotiations though, right? Doesn’t seem like many teams are pretending to be poor this off-season.

Gausman, 30 year old, career 105 era+. Jeez.
 

chawson

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Gausman had such a wide spread of contract predictions — Fangraphs had him signing for 3/$54 while MLBTR put him at 6/$138. Either way I don’t think a lot of folks saw him in Toronto. I’m a little bearish on him going forward but it’ll still be annoying seeing him so often.

I can’t imagine the Mets’ spending spree doesn’t land them getting one of Scherzer, Ray, Stroman, Gray, Ródon or Kershaw here, with the Dodgers quickly signing a consolation prize. I’m really hoping against hope that Bloom lands Stroman but I wouldn’t bet on it.
 

nattysez

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All this spending has to be seen as a positive for labor negotiations though, right? Doesn’t seem like many teams are pretending to be poor this off-season.

Gausman, 30 year old, career 105 era+. Jeez.
I have the exact opposite impression. I feel like this spate of deals will lead the owners to say amongst themselves that they can't be trusted to spend responsibly and must absolutely insist on a harder salary cap in the CBA.
 

Ale Xander

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I’d muuuuuch rather see Gausman 3-6 times a year than Semien getting 80-90
plate appearances against us.
I don’t think the Blue Jays got better today. As a Red Sox fan, I’m happy with that duo of moves.
 

Yo La Tengo

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I’d muuuuuch rather see Gausman 3-6 times a year than Semien getting 80-90
plate appearances against us.
I don’t think the Blue Jays got better today. As a Red Sox fan, I’m happy with that duo of moves.
The absolute best case scenario is Gausman matching Robbie Ray’s stats from last year. While Toronto’s rotation looks promising, losing Ray is a huge hit.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Gausman is a good pitcher, no doubt. But he was fading in the last part of the season and his record of success is so short that I'd be terrified to be relying on him to be an ace in the AL East.
 

nattysez

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Rangers also get Jon Gray.

Yanks and Sox standing by twiddling thumbs
Teams "doing stuff" - Angels, Mets, Rangers, Twins, Jays

Teams "twiddling their thumbs" - teams that made the playoffs.

Could be a coincidence, or it could be that these are ridiculous deals that are very similar to the kinds of deals that killed these bad teams in the first place.
 

soxhop411

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Teams "doing stuff" - Angels, Mets, Rangers, Twins, Jays

Teams "twiddling their thumbs" - teams that made the playoffs.

Could be a coincidence, or it could be that these are ridiculous deals that are very similar to the kinds of deals that killed these bad teams in the first place.
And the Sox at one point (Punto trade) Luckily the dodgers bailed us out.

most teams don’t get so lucky.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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jon abbey

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This should infuriate the Yankees and their fans, I’d think. Seager is a left handed power hitting SS who fills every need they have.
He’s obviously a really good player but he is not a good defender at SS and his power is mostly to LF. I still think they’re the favorites to sign him but I think it has a very good chance to end up as a bad fit if they do.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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I recall the talk about Scherzer at the deadline was that he wanted to go to the west coast (which he did) so I assumed that would lead his free agency talks as well. $42M a year is certainly enough to override those desires. 3-4 years is crazy too. Cohen is going to rue the day Steven Matz signed with St. Louis.
Putting that much money and that many years on a 37 year old pitcher is a huge risk for the franchise and one that could very easily explode in the Mets face.
 

chawson

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Buxton did well to get a solid base amount, but I'd still much rather have the Buxton deal than Semien's. As a ceiling play, the Twins would end up paying less for Buck over 7 years - assuming he wins the MVP each year! - than Semien gets guaranteed. Semien's a much better bet to play, but man, that's a lot of years. If Brian Dozier had got a 7 year deal after setting the 2B HR record, he'd still have 2 years left. And he's been cooked for 2 years.
Yeah Buxton’s deal is far better. I love Semien, but that Dozier comp is a little eerie with how they hit both their bombs (big pull hitters, very high launch angles).

I’m pretty thrilled the Twins get to keep Buxton over some of the alternatives to where he’d go, and I’m eager to see how it turns out for them. Plus the whole saga helped you get your jersey at a discount!
 
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