2021 ALDS MVP

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
185
(B)Austin Texas
That was a thrilling series and (at least to me) a somewhat unexpected victory given the regular season results. I really thought Tampa was going to shut down our bats. But that's why they play the games.

There's no ALDS MVP, of course, but what if there was? Here are the compiled WPA (Win probability added) values from Fangraphs. And the WPA reflects my feelings too; Pivetta as the pitching MVP (with the Stolen YankeeTM as a close second), and Kike as the lineup MVP. But how about you?

45212
 

Bergs

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
16,700
That was a thrilling series and (at least to me) a somewhat unexpected victory given the regular season results. I really thought Tampa was going to shut down our bats. But that's why they play the games. Here are the compiled WPA (Win probability added) values from Fangraphs. And the WPA reflects my feelings too; Pivetta as the pitching MVP (with the Stolen YankeeTM as a close second), and Kike as the lineup MVP. But how about you?

View attachment 45212
Seeing that Sale number reminds me how crazy it was we won that game.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
3,220
Twin Cities
Yeah, I'd go with Pivetta edging Hernandez.

Pivetta, Whitlock, Hernandez, and Verdugo. It's been discussed elsewhere, but WPA's top 4 all acquired by Bloom. Solid work.
 

mauidano

Mai Tais for everyone!
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2006
31,453
Maui
I'll go with the numbers. Nick and Kike. If I have to pick one; it's Kike. What a Series!
 

Merkle's Boner

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2011
3,060
Looks to me like their algorithm doesn’t know how to factor in hip checking the ball over the fence! Renfroe too low!
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,813
Not sure where those numbers came from, but I didn't think they looked right and checked, and at least some of those are way off.

Like I knew Sale was terrible, but there was no way his 1 inning caused a 91% win expectancy swing in that one game, he was actually -.45, Kike was .26, Pivetta was .55, I didn't look up any of the others but theres a good chance they're wrong too.

edit: Actually numbers are here, with Whitlock and Pivetta still leading the way, and Vaz leading the way for the hitters almost entirely on the strength of the 1 blast.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2021_ALDS2.shtml
 
Last edited:

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
13,424
UWS, NYC
1. Pivetta. Massive factor in two games, and beyond given the innings he saved his bullpen mates.
2. Kike. Can't deny the production.
3. Vazquez. I'm about the furthest thing there is from a Vazquez fan, but got the hits that led directly to wins in the bottom of the last inning of the last two games. Drama points.
4. Wander Franco. Holy fucking shit. The Chuck Howley of the series.

EDIT: I flipped my #1 and #2. Pivetta's contributions kept us from seeing Barnes and Ottovino and I'm very grateful for that.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
7,964
NYC
Kiké + BDN sounds right.

If we factor in the Yankee game in an overall "Playoff MVP to Date" vote, I'd also give Eovaldi some love: 10.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 16 K.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
7,964
NYC
Playoff OPS to date:

1.266 Kiké
1.200 JDM
1.085 X
1.041 Schwarber
1.017 Raffy
.913 Dugie
.882 Vaz

That'll do.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
19,345
Rogers Park
Not sure where those numbers came from, but I didn't think they looked right and checked, and at least some of those are way off.

Like I knew Sale was terrible, but there was no way his 1 inning caused a 91% win expectancy swing in that one game, he was actually -.45, Kike was .26, Pivetta was .55, I didn't look up any of the others but theres a good chance they're wrong too.

edit: Actually numbers are here, with Whitlock and Pivetta still leading the way, and Vaz leading the way for the hitters almost entirely on the strength of the 1 blast.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2021_ALDS2.shtml
Eh, Vazquez (or his pinch runner) were the winning run in two consecutive walkoffs. That will rack up some WPA.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,813
I want to throw in an honorable mention to Christian Arroyo for starting exactly 3 games since July 18th before the ALDS and being fine enough all series to not be a concern.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
185
(B)Austin Texas
Not sure where those numbers came from, but I didn't think they looked right and checked, and at least some of those are way off.

Like I knew Sale was terrible, but there was no way his 1 inning caused a 91% win expectancy swing in that one game, he was actually -.45, Kike was .26, Pivetta was .55, I didn't look up any of the others but theres a good chance they're wrong too.

edit: Actually numbers are here, with Whitlock and Pivetta still leading the way, and Vaz leading the way for the hitters almost entirely on the strength of the 1 blast.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2021_ALDS2.shtml
Those tables up top were the result of my copy/paste spreadsheeting and pivot tables of WPA values for each game. Turns out I pasted the Sox Game 2 WPA data twice, so overweighed that game. I won't fix the table or Scottyno's reply looks confusing. My bad.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
8,813
Those tables up top were the result of my copy/paste spreadsheeting and pivot tables of WPA values for each game. Turns out I pasted the Sox Game 2 WPA data twice, so overweighed that game. I won't fix the table or Scottyno's reply looks confusing. My bad.
No worries, you might as well fix it if its an easy fix since people are more likely to respond to that than scroll all the way down.

The guys we assume were good were still really really good
 

kartvelo

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2003
9,023
At home
How soon we forget Tanner Houck, just because the bats came to life later in that game.