2020 NBA Draft

PedroKsBambino

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Nesmith is a guy I'm really interested in at 14.

Also, Celtics have I believe 4 picks in top 47. I'd be pretty happy if they were able to move up and end up with only two picks from that four. Couldn't you imagine Washington at 9 or maybe Charlotte at 8 being interested in 14, 26, and 47? If you like someone in particular---Nesmith is a possibility, but no doubt others---feels like a good time to consolidate. BB would surely approve
 

PedroKsBambino

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Forget about Carey - I want to know if there's a Jim Carrey (in Dumb and Dumber) chance that if the Hawks win the lottery, there's any scenario in which they can trade the #1 pick for Ben Simmons. Because that's all I can think about, having caught up on this thread now.
Signs point to "no"....
 

nighthob

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Also, Celtics have I believe 4 picks in top 47. I'd be pretty happy if they were able to move up and end up with only two picks from that four. Couldn't you imagine Washington at 9 or maybe Charlotte at 8 being interested in 14, 26, and 47? If you like someone in particular---Nesmith is a possibility, but no doubt others---feels like a good time to consolidate. BB would surely approve
There are going to be guys leaving, so there’s always room for more guys at the end of the bench. And there are some really interesting physical specimens that are likely going to be there at 30 & 47 that will allow Boston to take some homerun swings on players that might benefit from developing on a contender. Also, unless Danny really loves Devin Vassell or Patrick Williams and is convinced they won't get to 14 I don't see them trading up (this is a very flat draft pool).

If Grant or Romeo pan out, the Celtics will absolutely roll out 4-5 wing lineups and feel fine about it.
I don't track high school recruits, but given Danny has, around the 10-15 range, picked post-hype players who were highly rated out of high school and struggled a bit in college (Avery Bradley, Romeo Langford) are there any similar profiles in this year's draft around slot 14?
These two have the same answer, more or less. If Precious Achiuwa floats to 14 I could absolutely see Ainge grabbing him. He was a highly recruited big wing in HS that Memphis ended up moving to C after the NCAA canned James Wiseman. He's currently 6'9"/225 and looks like he can carry another 20-30lbs without losing any explosiveness. With his 7'2" wingspan and 9'+ standing reach he has the ability to play C in the same way that Theis does. ANd he does have a wing's offensive game, outside the shooting. But if Jay Larranaga can turn Marcus into a non-terrible shooter, he can probably do the same here.

Anyway, Achiuwa allows them to put five guys on the floor that can defend 1-5 (especially if they also end up with Tyler Bey), which will give opposing coaches nightmares.

Yeah the 30th pick is a good time to take him. But at 14, either a super athletic big, a combo guard like Nesmith/Cole Anthony/RJ Hampton, or another wing would be the way I'd go
Cole Anthony has some length problems. I don't see Boston going for him. I could absolutely see them drafting Hampton, though, with his combo guard game.

I'd really like a shooter to put on the bench. I was reading KOC's draft guide and it seems like Aaron Nesmith fits that description right around where we'll be picking with the Grizz's pick?
Nesmith has some real 3&D potential. Jaden McDaniels and Josh Green are two other guys to keep an eye on in that regard. Green can't shoot at all, but he's got a +4 wingspan and is really athletic and really busts ass on the defensive end. I discussed McDaniels earlier in the thread, but the more tape I watch the more I like him. I'm skeptical that he can much past 230 on the size scale, but with that height/length combo it might be enough for him to seize the third wing spot next to the J Crew (and, as a Jaden, he'd fit right in).

I see Carey or another limited guy like him as being a cost effective replacement for one of those MLE level bigs, if that's the direction that Ainge wants to go. Sure. We can find that guy for 5M, if he wants to come here. Or you can draft and pay him under 2M, and there's no recruitment necessary.

The chance of getting a franchise altering piece at 14 is small, let alone 30.
The problem with guys like Carey is that it takes them a while to adapt to the speed of the NBA game. So you end up having to sign someone like Theis anyway. I could see them grabbing Isaiah Stewart in the late first if he's available. Much better mobility for the modern game, with the mass/length to be an effective C.
 

benhogan

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There are going to be guys leaving, so there’s always room for more guys at the end of the bench. And there are some really interesting physical specimens that are likely going to be there at 30 & 47 that will allow Boston to take some homerun swings on players that might benefit from developing on a contender. Also, unless Danny really loves Devin Vassell or Patrick Williams and is convinced they won't get to 14 I don't see them trading up (this is a very flat draft pool).




These two have the same answer, more or less. If Precious Achiuwa floats to 14 I could absolutely see Ainge grabbing him. He was a highly recruited big wing in HS that Memphis ended up moving to C after the NCAA canned James Wiseman. He's currently 6'9"/225 and looks like he can carry another 20-30lbs without losing any explosiveness. With his 7'2" wingspan and 9'+ standing reach he has the ability to play C in the same way that Theis does. ANd he does have a wing's offensive game, outside the shooting. But if Jay Larranaga can turn Marcus into a non-terrible shooter, he can probably do the same here.

Anyway, Achiuwa allows them to put five guys on the floor that can defend 1-5 (especially if they also end up with Tyler Bey), which will give opposing coaches nightmares.



Cole Anthony has some length problems. I don't see Boston going for him. I could absolutely see them drafting Hampton, though, with his combo guard game.



Nesmith has some real 3&D potential. Jaden McDaniels and Josh Green are two other guys to keep an eye on in that regard. Green can't shoot at all, but he's got a +4 wingspan and is really athletic and really busts ass on the defensive end. I discussed McDaniels earlier in the thread, but the more tape I watch the more I like him. I'm skeptical that he can much past 230 on the size scale, but with that height/length combo it might be enough for him to seize the third wing spot next to the J Crew (and, as a Jaden, he'd fit right in).



The problem with guys like Carey is that it takes them a while to adapt to the speed of the NBA game. So you end up having to sign someone like Theis anyway. I could see them grabbing Isaiah Stewart in the late first if he's available. Much better mobility for the modern game, with the mass/length to be an effective C.
You seem to do the most work around here on potential draft picks. Which service do you think has the best, most informative mock?

and do you do your own top 30 (or 60) list pre-draft?
 

Sam Ray Not

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I heard Wardell Curry III is gonna be there repping the San Francisco Warriors. Here’s hoping he’s as lucky as Dan Gilbert’s kid...
 

nighthob

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You seem to do the most work around here on potential draft picks. Which service do you think has the best, most informative mock?

and do you do your own top 30 (or 60) list pre-draft?
I would do it except that it's extremely time intensive and the rewards are minimal because there are already so many sites devoted to the subject. Rest assured, though, if I were to ever come into a financial windfall and can afford to retire, then I'll happily devote the time to a draft site.

As for mock drafts, they're all hit and miss, all you really want is decent writeups with shortcuts to video. The Ringer is as good as anyone in that regard. Because the write-ups are good and then you can go to youtube and look the guys up yourself.

Me? I keep track of players starting at the high school level via Rivals and then spend waaaaay too much time on YouTube following their video from high school through college to get a sense of what they can do. I gave a writeup earlier in the thread on the guys in the 21-50 range I thought Boston might have interest in, I'll do a look at the 4-20 crowd later (I see Edwards, Wiseman, and Little Ball as the top 3, and none of them are floating to Boston, but anyone after that might).
 

bankshot1

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So whats the conventional wisdom about this draft for the Celts, trade up (3 for 1 to get a 7-10 pick-I'm ballparking) or in a shortened college season, where uncertainty is pretty high, keep the 3 1st rounders and hope you're lucky? .
 

Sam Ray Not

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It must have been fun for DeAngelo Russell in
out-lucky charm-ing Steph Curry.
Eh. In a draft with no consensus #1 but a vaguely consensus top 3, I kinda prefer #2 to #1. Let Minny decide who’s Durant and who’s Oden, so I don’t have to kick myself for all eternity for the picking wrong one.

MIN also gets #1 in a draft loaded with intriguing PGs. If the Warriors didn’t pull the trigger when they did, would the Wolves be as hot to acquire DLo right now as they were?

Downside for GS is that the value of Minny’s 2021 may have declined a bit, but that assumes the Wolves pick someone who’s a positive as a rookie.

TLDR: wooooohoooooo!!!!!
 

Rook05

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Marc Gasol and DeAndre Jordan were 2nd rounders, So was Zubac and Harrell. Ibaka, late 1st. I’m sure there are more I’m not thinking of.
Yet another reason why the Pau Gasoline trade was horseshit. I don’t care what Marc turned into, that was a Jerry West heist.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I get excited about Obi only because KOC has him at his 12th best available while most of the mock drafts have him at 4-6. If he was to slip, man I'm an A10 homer but love me some Toppin and would hope the C's would trade up if the deal was good.

With the theory raised previously of Ainge liking those McDonald's All Americans who are underrated in college, I keep going back to Immanuel Quickley who was an All American in 2018 and put up some really nice numbers at UK this year. Improved from 34.5% to 42.8% increasing his 3-pt attempts twofold (2.4 to 4.8 attempts/game). And shot north of 150 FT attempts at 92.3%(!). The negative is at 6'3" he certainly does not pass like a PG with only 1.9 assists per game, but Ashton Hagans was also a soph on his team who was an all-pass poor distance shooter, so the opportunities may not have been there. But this is a guy who can contribute immediately next year as a spot up shooter with Tatum, Gordon and Kemba controlling the ball. I'd be satisfied getting him with the 3rd or 4th picks for sure.
 

Don Buddin's GS

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I get excited about Obi only because KOC has him at his 12th best available while most of the mock drafts have him at 4-6. If he was to slip, man I'm an A10 homer but love me some Toppin and would hope the C's would trade up if the deal was good.
The Celts had five scouts at the Dayton @ Rhode Island game this season to watch Obi Toppin. As an A-10 fan and Dayton grad, nothing would please me more than to see Danny move up and snag Obi One.
 
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nighthob

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The odds are that they just take whoever slips to them at #14. The draft is just too flat to be worth trading up.
 

DJnVa

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Not all sports are like that. In NBA/NHL/MLB there are a lot 18-19 year old kids getting picked where in the NFL it's all guys 3 years out of high school or more. NFL players are mostly what they are when they get drafted. Kids either out of HS or a year out are still developing into the players they will eventually be. I tend to try not to label kids that age as not being able to do this or that. They are still at the age where they are not done developing. In Carey's case, he can definitely work towards being a better defender by improving his footwork and speed. Stevens is the perfect coach to do that with.
Yeah, shouldn't really have put NFL, but you get my point--the draft is *all* about projecting what a 17-20 year old will do when they're older.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Given their current roster construction I think it’s highly likely that the Celtics trade out of one or two of their slots. If they really like someone who slips to like 10-11, I suppose packaging 14 and a lower pick for that pick would be possible. But I think it more likely they just pull a Belichick and give up some of their picks this year for a future version of the Memphis pick (a pick where the protections get less and less each year).
 

BigSoxFan

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Given their current roster construction I think it’s highly likely that the Celtics trade out of one or two of their slots. If they really like someone who slips to like 10-11, I suppose packaging 14 and a lower pick for that pick would be possible. But I think it more likely they just pull a Belichick and give up some of their picks this year for a future version of the Memphis pick (a pick where the protections get less and less each year).
I think they pick at 14, trade 26 for future first, and keep 30.
 

lovegtm

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All I want for Christmas is wing shooting around Tatum and Brown, every draft, forever. If you can boink 1-2 of those guys in the next 3 years, the team’s prospects improve significantly.
 

benhogan

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All I want for Christmas is wing shooting around Tatum and Brown, every draft, forever. If you can boink 1-2 of those guys in the next 3 years, the team’s prospects improve significantly.
There are a fair amount of players that shoot over 40% from 3 available throughout this draft.

Make a push to trade up for Nesmith, 52% on high volume from 3 last season? The scouting sites red flag his defense.

Saddiq Bey was at 45%, he may be there at 14

Not sure why 20yr old Jalen Smith (younger then Precious) has been mocking in the high teens/20s? Seems like he'd be very attractive player for the modern game. He can defend now at a high level. He's someone that could develop into a very mobile big that can shoot (37% from 3/75% FT). Has 2yrs of high level NCAA exp. + a full 2yrs younger then Toppin.

Quickley and Ramsey who have been mocking into the 2nd round can shoot/defend

 
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NomarsFool

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This is the ultimate crapshoot draft. Very flat talent wise for almost everyone, and then you throw in no college season and poorer ability to evaluate players through combines and player evaluations.

With that, I'd be much happier taking 3 shots at getting a good player than packaging picks to take one shot. I'm more than happy to let Semi and Carsten and Poirier go in order to free up roster spots for some young guys.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The odds are that they just take whoever slips to them at #14. The draft is just too flat to be worth trading up.
I don’t know if I sheee with this. We’ve seen Ainge lock-in on players he really likes. Promise to Orien Greene that cost us Amir Johnson as he frantically tried to get back into the 2nd round and infamously trading up for Olynyk. He has picks to move and drafting 3 1st rounders with a decelerating salary cap leads me to believe Trader Dan will be in action.
 

NomarsFool

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There was that famous 5 #1 picks for one player trade that never happened. But, Ainge has learned his lesson from that, I think.
 

lovegtm

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I don’t know if I sheee with this. We’ve seen Ainge lock-in on players he really likes. Promise to Orien Greene that cost us Amir Johnson as he frantically tried to get back into the 2nd round and infamously trading up for Olynyk. He has picks to move and drafting 3 1st rounders with a decelerating salary cap leads me to believe Trader Dan will be in action.
As you say, he has zero aversion to packaging picks to move up. However, I think the causality is that he does it when he really locks in on a specific guy. If there's no one he prefers, he's shown he'll just hold tons of picks (or even try to acquire more, like last year).
 

DannyDarwinism

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So, after spending some time re-evaluating some guys and taking a look at some others I hadn't seen much of before, I'm pretty into the idea of having the 14, 26, 30 and 47 in this draft.

After removing the consensus top 8, I have 15 guys that I'd be happy with taking at 14, then another 15 guys I'd be happy enough taking with 26 or 30.

I could maybe see trading picks to move up for a guy like Devin Vassell, but I don't know if he falls much further than 10th, so I'm not sure we have the ammo, and I may just rather have three rolls of the dice anyway, given the guys I expect to be there. Vassell looks like a safe bet to be a solid 3 & D guy, but so do Josh Green, Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey and Desmond Bane.

It certainly does seem to be lacking in star power, but I think there's some serious depth in this draft, and better talent at wing than I initially thought.
 

nighthob

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I could maybe see trading picks to move up for a guy like Devin Vassell, but I don't know if he falls much further than 10th, so I'm not sure we have the ammo, and I may just rather have three rolls of the dice anyway, given the guys I expect to be there. Vassell looks like a safe bet to be a solid 3 & D guy, but so do Josh Green, Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey and Desmond Bane.
I say this as a big fan of Josh Green, but he’s only a safe bet to be a D guy. His jumper is a felony in 11 states. Which still puts him ahead of Tyler Bey, whose jumpshot was ruled a crime against humanity by the ICC.

On the other hand Jay Larranaga turned Marcus Smart into an average three point shooter, which means that he’s only two miracles away from sainthood. So he might be able to redeem Green and Bey as well.
 

Jimbodandy

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I say this as a big fan of Josh Green, but he’s only a safe bet to be a D guy. His jumper is a felony in 11 states. Which still puts him ahead of Tyler Bey, whose jumpshot was ruled a crime against humanity by the ICC.

On the other hand Jay Larranaga turned Marcus Smart into an average three point shooter, which means that he’s only two miracles away from sainthood. So he might be able to redeem Green and Bey as well.
Even by nighthob standards, this post is fantastic.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I say this as a big fan of Josh Green, but he’s only a safe bet to be a D guy. His jumper is a felony in 11 states. Which still puts him ahead of Tyler Bey, whose jumpshot was ruled a crime against humanity by the ICC.

On the other hand Jay Larranaga turned Marcus Smart into an average three point shooter, which means that he’s only two miracles away from sainthood. So he might be able to redeem Green and Bey as well.
He’s not Tyrell Terry, but it looks better than Marcus’s did. Inconsistent for sure, and too much knee valgus, , but 36% from 3 and 78% from the line as a freshman is acceptable.

I initially had him behind S. Bey and Nesmith, due to his inferior jumper, but his his advantage in strength/length/athleticism is pretty substantial. Sounds like a great kid, too. I dunno. Bey and Nesmith will shoot, for sure.

T Bey’s a fun college player, but I’m out on him as an NBA prospect. He’ll be worthless on offensive and he’s just too small to play his natural position (the 4) in the NBA.
 

nighthob

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He’s not Tyrell Terry, but it looks better than Marcus’s did. Inconsistent for sure, and too much knee valgus, , but 36% from 3 and 78% from the line as a freshman is acceptable.
Talk about damning with faint praise... But Marcus is always the guy I compare Green to. Both good free throw shooters with ugly jumpers and bad habits that you hope can be fixed. In Green's case he has that hitch/bad synching problem with the shot and the guide hand floats which is why the jumper's so inconsistent. That and the release is not exactly what I'd call clean/quick. But, still, Jay Larranaga has added years to the lives of Boston fans with his work on Smart's jumper.

I initially had him behind S. Bey and Nesmith, due to his inferior jumper, but his his advantage in strength/length/athleticism is pretty substantial. Sounds like a great kid, too. I dunno. Bey and Nesmith will shoot, for sure.
I have him ahead of Nesmith on my board because of the length/explosive athleticism/slashing ability. But he's probably going to go in the 20-50 range.

T Bey’s a fun college player, but I’m out on him as an NBA prospect. He’ll be worthless on offensive and he’s just too small to play his natural position (the 4) in the NBA.
¿Qué? You do know that Houston starts a 6'7" 220lb guy at C, yes? And that Boston gives minutes at the 4 to Jaylen who's smaller than Bey. This ain't 2008. It's the smallball era. Bey's jumper is ugly. He's out of synch when he goes up and he uses the guide hand to generate extra rotation on the shot. Some guys can do that, he can't. On the bright side he was 13/31 on treys last year. But on the next level that means that he's going to get Semi Ojeleyed until he can shoot them effectively at will.

However with his help defense, motor, and ability to destroy passing lanes he's going to have a long career as an NBA bench player.
 

DannyDarwinism

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¿Qué? You do know that Houston starts a 6'7" 220lb guy at C, yes? And that Boston gives minutes at the 4 to Jaylen who's smaller than Bey. This ain't 2008. It's the smallball era. Bey's jumper is ugly. He's out of synch when he goes up and he uses the guide hand to generate extra rotation on the shot. Some guys can do that, he can't. On the bright side he was 13/31 on treys last year. But on the next level that means that he's going to get Semi Ojeleyed until he can shoot them effectively at will.

However with his help defense, motor, and ability to destroy passing lanes he's going to have a long career as an NBA bench player.
I’m more talking about weight/frame. Maybe he can add 25 pounds. Skinny legs and wrists, but he’s muscular, with decent shoulders. Turns 23 in February. If I had more confidence in his three, I’d be in, but it’s so far off and he’s so shook any time that he has to make a decision with the ball, that he’ll have to be Roberson on defense. He’s good. I don’t know if he’s that good.
 

nighthob

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He has the length and motor to make opponents' lives miserable. I don't think he's anything more than bench fodder unless he demonstrates the ability to make catch & shoot threes. I'm just saying that there's a role in the NBA for guys like Ty Bey and Semi Ojeleye.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He has the length and motor to make opponents' lives miserable. I don't think he's anything more than bench fodder unless he demonstrates the ability to make catch & shoot threes. I'm just saying that there's a role in the NBA for guys like Ty Bey and Semi Ojeleye.

I just looked and realized that you and I were discussing him, favorably, six months ago in this thread. He reminded then of a poor man's Brandon Clarke (or a poor man's version of a poor man's version of Shawn Marion) Maybe I should just go with my first impression. The defense would need to be elite, but there's a place for D-only lockdown pests like Roberson (didn't even make the Colorado connection when I referenced him earlier) and Thybulle. Hell, Lu Dort is doing as good a job as anyone on Harden right now. But then again, Lu (like Semi) is built like a brick shithouse. Maybe Tyler should start training with Yves Pons.

A couple of late firsts/second round guys I've come around on upon a second look: Reggie Perry and teammate Robert Woodard, Malachi Flynn, Paul Reed, Grant Riller. Still prefer Bane or Joe (or Tillie, depending on the medicals) to those guys, but there's interesting prospects at 26, 30 &47, for sure.
 

tbb345

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I just looked and realized that you and I were discussing him, favorably, six months ago in this thread. He reminded then of a poor man's Brandon Clarke (or a poor man's version of a poor man's version of Shawn Marion) Maybe I should just go with my first impression. The defense would need to be elite, but there's a place for D-only lockdown pests like Roberson (didn't even make the Colorado connection when I referenced him earlier) and Thybulle. Hell, Lu Dort is doing as good a job as anyone on Harden right now. But then again, Lu (like Semi) is built like a brick shithouse. Maybe Tyler should start training with Yves Pons.

A couple of late firsts/second round guys I've come around on upon a second look: Reggie Perry and teammate Robert Woodard, Malachi Flynn, Paul Reed, Grant Riller. Still prefer Bane or Joe (or Tillie, depending on the medicals) to those guys, but there's interesting prospects at 26, 30 &47, for sure.
FYI, both Givony/Schmitz at DX (now ESPN) and KOC mocked Woodard to the C’s with the 30th pick.

In an article today, Givony proposed 14, 26 and 30 to the Pistons for 7. He then mentioned Okongwu and Tyrese Haliburton as players the Celtics would be very interested in.
 

NomarsFool

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I know one shouldn't draft based on need, but one of the weaknesses on the Celtics (IMHO) is have a lock-down defender on quicker guards. Marcus, as great as he is, isn't that effective at guarding the Kemba Walkers of the world (I can't remember how quick Devin Booker is - but that's another guard who has torched the Celtics).
 

DannyDarwinism

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FYI, both Givony/Schmitz at DX (now ESPN) and KOC mocked Woodard to the C’s with the 30th pick.

In an article today, Givony proposed 14, 26 and 30 to the Pistons for 7. He then mentioned Okongwu and Tyrese Haliburton as players the Celtics would be very interested in.
Oh wow, if 14, 26 & 30 can possibly get us up to #7, and either of those guys (but OO particularly) count me in. Givony knows his stuff, so I suppose it’s within reason. Pelton had a draft pick value chart a while ago, under which just the 14 and 26 alone gets you there, but that doesn’t really pass the smell test to me. I get the sense that these slot values are more individualized among the teams than say, NFL picks.

FWIW, here’s Pelton’s chart:http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I know one shouldn't draft based on need, but one of the weaknesses on the Celtics (IMHO) is have a lock-down defender on quicker guards. Marcus, as great as he is, isn't that effective at guarding the Kemba Walkers of the world (I can't remember how quick Devin Booker is - but that's another guard who has torched the Celtics).
In today's NBA I don't see this as too much of a major weakness. There aren't a lot of true quick guard stoppers in the league, and most offenses are built around getting defenders switched into more advantageous matchups, which is why having a roster full of rangy wing defenders is more valuable than an Avery Bradley type who can only guard that one position.

Maybe Marcus can't handle a Kemba-type player, but when you have 3-4 guys who can credibly handle most switches you throw at them, you don't have to worry so much about whether or not the quick guard can beat his man (and the top quick guards are beating their man anyway). I think if you have good rim protection, good coverage of passing lanes, and quick recovery on the perimeter, that goes farther toward neutralizing quick guards than trying to pinpoint a single defensive stopper. I think if you just keep drafting for all-around team defense you don't have to worry too much about specific matchups on that end. Romeo, for example, is right in line with that need, as a smaller wing who can credibly slow down multiple positions.

Edit: Of course, if there is a true lockdown guard out there, I wouldn't say no to him. But I'd love for the next guard we draft to be big.
 

NomarsFool

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Fair point. I guess we'll see who's available on draft night. As has been stated before, I think there will be a lot of surprises as to who gets drafted where. As do everything wings are the gold of the NBA, my expectation is that the best do everything wing players will be gone by the time the Celtics draft. The good news for the Celtics is, we already have two of those do everything wings already. We have three shots (26, 30, and 47) at drafting a BIG, which is where a lot of impact BIGS are drafted anyway, which is good. The question is, should we be hoping for a SG-SF wing at 14, or a PF-SF wing at 14? My guess is the better, bigger wings will be gone by 14 - but maybe not.