2020 NBA Draft

Jimbodandy

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I can't find the quote right now but I remember Ainge having some pretty harsh words for Dragan Bender's body in the run-up to the Jaylen draft. If he can't project NBA strength onto a young player, he won't be interested.
I admire your willingness to risk the wrath of the "don't give up on Bender yet" crowd.
 

DannyDarwinism

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@nighthob - I saw you post on draft-and-stashes in the Memphis thread- apparently, Leandro Bolmaro re-signed with Barcelona last week, but with a friendly buy-out option, making it easier to draft-and-stash him, while he gets to develop by getting playing time in the ACB, as opposed to stagnating on the end of an NBA bench, or dealing with the uncertainty of whether the G League will actually play or not. Likely first rounder who can dribble, defend and pass, but maybe not shoot so much? https://www.nba.com/draft/2020/prospects/leandro-bolmaro?experience=app#/

A much-less heralded draft-and-stash possibility with the 47th pick is Paul Eboua. Doesn't have much in terms of skill, but he has an ideal NBA frame- 6'7, with a 7'3 wingspan, strong, decent laterally, and good vertical athlete. He's only been playing ball for five years, so he's behind on actually learning how to play basketball, but I think he's the type of guy you roll the dice on in the second round. I was into him last year as a second rounder, just based on his physical profile alone, and another year in Italy didn't do much to change things in either direction.
 

nighthob

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@nighthob - I saw you post on draft-and-stashes in the Memphis thread- apparently, Leandro Bolmaro re-signed with Barcelona last week, but with a friendly buy-out option, making it easier to draft-and-stash him, while he gets to develop by getting playing time in the ACB, as opposed to stagnating on the end of an NBA bench, or dealing with the uncertainty of whether the G League will actually play or not. Likely first rounder who can dribble, defend and pass, but maybe not shoot so much? https://www.nba.com/draft/2020/prospects/leandro-bolmaro?experience=app#/

A much-less heralded draft-and-stash possibility with the 47th pick is Paul Eboua. Doesn't have much in terms of skill, but he has an ideal NBA frame- 6'7, with a 7'3 wingspan, strong, decent laterally, and good vertical athlete. He's only been playing ball for five years, so he's behind on actually learning how to play basketball, but I think he's the type of guy you roll the dice on in the second round. I was into him last year as a second rounder, just based on his physical profile alone, and another year in Italy didn't do much to change things in either direction.
If Bolmaro is tied in to Barcelona I doubt Boston drafts him unless they think he's considerably better than he's looked to me on tape. To me he looks like a decent rotation guy, and there's no sense in waiting around for that player, especially when Boston's moving in to a time where they need low cost guys to put around their two 30% max guys (Tatum being the second, he'll be on a 30% five year max starting in '22) and Brown.

I do agree on Eboua, the athleticism is definitely there, and he looks like he can carry 235-245 without a serious loss on that end. So he's definitely a potential rotational 4/5 in the pace & space era. Another guy in that area is the French PG, Abdoulaye N’Doye. Although with N'Doye he's older and has a lot less upside as a result. On the other hand 6'7" guys that can guard 1-4 without being offensive liabilities have a lot of utility in the load management game.
 

Swedgin

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Interesting thought experiment I saw on Reddit. You've won the lottery and have the "honor" of picking first in this year's NBA draft. You are going to trade the pick straight up for one player. What is the minimum return you would accept? Note, question is not whether the team that currently holds that player's rights would do the deal, just when you as the lottery winner would say yes.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Wouldn’t that depend quite heavily on what team you are, since the rest of your lineup and your style is going to alter your perceived value of the draft pool? Also your value of that one player? It’s not static.
 

benhogan

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Interesting thought experiment I saw on Reddit. You've won the lottery and have the "honor" of picking first in this year's NBA draft. You are going to trade the pick straight up for one player. What is the minimum return you would accept? Note, question is not whether the team that currently holds that player's rights would do the deal, just when you as the lottery winner would say yes.
Along the same lines, another good question we've been kicking around here is if the Warriors win the lottery, who would they trade 2020 #1 + Minny's '21 #1 pick for? (+ Wiggins stapled)

would the Wizards pick up the phone?
does Philly reboot on the fly?
maybe Chicago moves Lavine?
Does Danny consider a 3-team deal with Hayward on the move to GS?
Does Blake Griffin have any appeal?

SRN has Simmons penciled in...
 

Jimbodandy

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Along the same lines, another good question we've been kicking around here is if the Warriors win the lottery, who would they trade 2020 #1 + Minny's '21 #1 pick for? (+ Wiggins stapled)

would the Wizards pick up the phone?
does Philly reboot on the fly?
maybe Chicago moves Lavine?
Does Danny consider a 3-team deal with Hayward on the move to GS?
Does Blake Griffin have any appeal?

SRN has Simmons penciled in...
Teams that want that draft pick, can handle Wiggins' salary, and have something that the GSW want? Gallinari or Holiday maybe?

The Giannis or Simmons pipe dreams are based on the player demanding out, aren't they?
 

Sam Ray Not

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Teams that want that draft pick, can handle Wiggins' salary, and have something that the GSW want? Gallinari or Holiday maybe?

The Giannis or Simmons pipe dreams are based on the player demanding out, aren't they?
The Giannis pipe dream is 100% based on that. No chance MIL ever willingly lets him go. The Simmons one is more like 95% based on that. I could at least vaguely see a scenario where Simmons doesn’t demand anything, but Brand decides Simmons/Embiid is unworkable and attempts a modified rebuild around, say, Embiid, LaMelo and shooters.
 

benhogan

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Teams that want that draft pick, can handle Wiggins' salary, and have something that the GSW want? Gallinari or Holiday maybe?

The Giannis or Simmons pipe dreams are based on the player demanding out, aren't they?
Giannis is not happening, that's a complete utter pipe dream.

BUT if the 76ers get bounced in Round 1 I'd say there is a chance that they make some drastic moves. Coach Brown will be out for sure and 76ers ownership just loves being active in the trade market.
 

lovegtm

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The problem in these scenarios is that this year’s draft is weak, so a lot of the pick’s value has to go to getting a team to eat Wiggins. There are absolutely some good players that Wiggins+those 2 picks can get, but I think Dubs fans will be disappointed when the return is a tier below what they’re expecting.

I’ve seen the Kawhi trade comparisons, but that was an awful deal the day it was done, even with the injury and flight risk. It’s also totally out of line with other recent star hauls. Pop’s high time preference really boned the Spurs there.
 

Jimbodandy

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The problem in these scenarios is that this year’s draft is weak, so a lot of the pick’s value has to go to getting a team to eat Wiggins. There are absolutely some good players that Wiggins+those 2 picks can get, but I think Dubs fans will be disappointed when the return is a tier below what they’re expecting.

I’ve seen the Kawhi trade comparisons, but that was an awful deal the day it was done, even with the injury and flight risk. It’s also totally out of line with other recent star hauls. Pop’s high time preference really boned the Spurs there.
That's why I floated guys like Gallinari and Holiday. Both of those guys are somewhat redundant on a healthy GSW team, but they're valuable players.

I suppose that Green instead of Wiggins makes the return better in SRNs hypothetical, but that's kinda creating one problem in solving another.

Wiggins is an anchor. One of the top guys could be really good of course, but there's no Lebron or even a Simmons-level guaranteed stud in this draft.

Does Philly want to add an unsure thing, a rotation player and an anchor in exchange for their best player? I sure as hell wouldn't, even if I felt like I needed to move Simmons. Does Philly want a rebuild? Four shooters around Embiid sounds nice on paper, but it sounds like awful hoop to watch for 48/82.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Interesting thought experiment I saw on Reddit. You've won the lottery and have the "honor" of picking first in this year's NBA draft. You are going to trade the pick straight up for one player. What is the minimum return you would accept? Note, question is not whether the team that currently holds that player's rights would do the deal, just when you as the lottery winner would say yes.

With a bunch of caveats aside, if I'm starting a franchise, I'm probably taking Anthony Edwards #1, even though I'm not particularly bullish on him. His defensive apathy, questionable decision-making and poor team success are significant red flags, but he does have the athletic and shot-making tools to be a difference maker. Wiseman and Ball likewise have red flags, and no one else can boast the same upside. So if the question is, if I'm starting from scratch, who's the worst player I'd take over Anthony Edwards, I'm mainly looking at young guys, and I'd say maybe John Collins? D'Angelo Russell? Jamal Murray?

If the scenario is that the Celtics hypothetically had #1 and could trade it for any player straight up for a win-now team, then the worst vet I'd take is somewhere around Nik Vucevic, Nukic maybe even Steven Adams?

I suppose the takeaway is that I'm pretty bearish on the top end of this draft.
 

the moops

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Yeah, Philly has made some bad moves, but selling low on Simmons would be moronic.
I don't think they are selling low though. Should they move him it is because of a quick first round exit and the narrative will be "see how bad this team is without Simmons - he is a necessary cog for a contender"
 

Sam Ray Not

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Wiggins is an anchor on his bloated contract, but not a bad ~30 mpg “innings cruncher” on the wing. Elite, versatile athlete who guards 1-2-3-4, runs the floor and slashes to the rim well, hits open threes ... plus a chill and likable teammate who’s arguably the most durable player in the NBA. Despite his meh traditional stats, he’s always been a net positive for his crappy teams. And he’s just 25, so may have a bit of upside. Overall: a “do no harm” type player if not for the contract.

I’m actually looking forward to seeing him slot between Draymond and Klay in the old Harrison Barnes role if none of my pipe dream trades pan out.

From Philly’s perspective: there’s also the fact that Embiid and Wiggins went to Kansas together and are close.
 

EL Jeffe

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How do people feel about Cole Anthony at 14? I don't nearly have the same feel for this draft class as past ones, but Anthony seems like he's expected to go somewhere around that range. Obviously the high school pedigree is there, which Boston always takes into account. I watched Anthony a few times and I didn't see anything that made me feel like he couldn't be the player his high school press clippings made him out to be. Certainly UNC struggled and he didn't make his teammates better, which is a red flag. Shot selection wasn't great either, and his length isn't anything special. On the other hand, there's definitely talent there. Shooting percentages aside, the form and release looked good. He's strong and can finish through contact. Court vision flashed at times, and he showed playmaking potential. Despite average length I think he has enough size and strength to handle most wing switches. I see a 2nd unit lead guard early in his career with development potential to be a quality starter. There are probably safer 3&D picks (also a need) and a couple of athletic bigs who look useful, but I can see a case for Anthony.
 

nighthob

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Jerryd Bayless syndrome. Looked great against the high school competition, but the lack of length is a killer in a G. Stanley gets away with it due to his size, but Anthony lacks that sort of height.
 

Jimbodandy

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Wiggins is an anchor on his bloated contract, but not a bad ~30 mpg “innings cruncher” on the wing. Elite, versatile athlete who guards 1-2-3-4, runs the floor and slashes to the rim well, hits open threes ... plus a chill and likable teammate who’s arguably the most durable player in the NBA. Despite his meh traditional stats, he’s always been a net positive for his crappy teams. And he’s just 25, so may have a bit of upside. Overall: a “do no harm” type player if not for the contract.

I’m actually looking forward to seeing him slot between Draymond and Klay in the old Harrison Barnes role if none of my pipe dream trades pan out.

From Philly’s perspective: there’s also the fact that Embiid and Wiggins went to Kansas together and are close.
While I imagine that you meet your sales quota every quarter, I regret to inform you that nobody on this forum is Elton Brand.
 

BigSoxFan

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How about another preseason hype guy, RJ Hampton? Didn’t see his Australia highlights so not sure how he did but the stats seem to tell a mixed story.
 

Swedgin

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Jerryd Bayless syndrome. Looked great against the high school competition, but the lack of length is a killer in a G. Stanley gets away with it due to his size, but Anthony lacks that sort of height.
Also worth mentioning that he was an "old" freshman (and high school junior/senior), having turned 20 in May.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Probably good value at #14, but a weird fit on a roster with Walker, Wanamaker, and Edwards, no?

Brad Wannamaker and Carsen Edwards shouldn't stop them from drafting Cole Anthony if they think that's their guy, but I'd prefer Kira Lewis at 14 (who's actually a year younger despite being a sophomore) , and maybe even Tre Jones, who has a lower ceiling, but likely can be had later.

He was undoubtedly hurt by UNC nearly always playing three non-shooters with him, so defenses just collapsed on him any time he saw daylight. Plus UNC didn't run much PnR to begin with, which I think is where he's at his best. He'll have much more space in the NBA, and that will benefit his driving and mid-range pull up game, but he was plagued by some of the poor decision-making and shot selection issues that give me pause with Anthony Edwards. Plus he didn't shoot well, even when he had open shots. Hard to make out how much of that was poor circumstances and roster construction. The injury didn't help, either, but I don't think he's a great facilitator or a particularly good defender. He steps up in big games- McDonald's AA, Hoops Summit, but the effort wasn't there on a game-to-game basis. The lack of length hurts- Bayless is an interesting comp- I don’t see him as a good finisher. Tough evaluation.

You're right though, he does fit the Ainge mold of heralded prospect who underperformed in college.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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he was plagued by some of the poor decision-making and shot selection issues that give me pause with Anthony Edwards
Of course, Edwards is 16 months younger than Anthony, 2-3 inches taller, and 40 lbs heavier, with a body that looks ready to bang with Harden, Jaylen, Kawhi et al. in about 15 minutes.

I’m normally a big believer in college stats, but Edwards is one where the eye test overwhelms my rational side. If the Warriors pluck #1-2 I kind of want them to take him and keep him, even if it’s likely a suboptimal use of the last few years of Steph and Klay’s prime. Watching a young phenom develop has its own special appeal separate from the stated goal of racking up more championships, even though I know he’d make me pull my hair out much of the time.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Of course, Edwards is 16 months younger than Anthony, 2-3 inches taller, and 40 lbs heavier, with a body that looks ready to bang with Harden, Jaylen, Kawhi et al. in about 15 minutes.

I’m normally a big believer in college stats, but Edwards is one where the eye test overwhelms my rational side. If the Warriors pluck #1-2 I kind of want them to take him and keep him, even if it’s likely a suboptimal use of the last few years of Steph and Klay’s prime. Watching a young phenom develop has its own special appeal separate from the stated goal of racking up more championships, even though I know he’d make me pull my hair out much of the time.
Well, yeah- I just said I'd take Edwards 1st overall in post #214!

He absolutely pops in a "that's an NBA player" way when you see him on the court, but really good college players who go #1 usually lead their college teams to some level of success. Ben Simmons didn't and it was a concern that didn't really play out. Markelle Fultz didn't, and it's an open question as to how much of his failure was attributable to his mental make-up vs an actual, if mysterious, injury. But yeah, as I said upthread, in a weak draft, Ant's shot-making and physical profile are enough to put him ahead of everyone else. If he had the game management and mental make up of Tre Jones, there wouldn't be much debate about who's #1.
 

RedOctober3829

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Tankathon has us taking FSU PF Patrick Williams at 14, Colorado SF Tyler Bey at 26, and Duke PF/C Vernon Carey at 30. I would love to see Carey on this team. A polished low post scorer and rebounder that could fill a role right away.
 

NomarsFool

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I'm a little torn, because the NBA has become a wing dominated league - but with two great wings and our top prospect at the wing as well, I feel like where the Celtics really need help in the future will be either PG or BIG. So, rather than taking the best available player, I sort of want them to focus on those two positions and see who pans out.
 

128

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Tankathon has us taking FSU PF Patrick Williams at 14, Colorado SF Tyler Bey at 26, and Duke PF/C Vernon Carey at 30. I would love to see Carey on this team. A polished low post scorer and rebounder that could fill a role right away.
Carey is basically what Greg Monroe was coming out of Georgetown. Not sure where he fits in today's NBA, which is why he's projected to go so late.

In 1995, Carey might have been the No. 1 overall pick.
 

nighthob

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I'm a little torn, because the NBA has become a wing dominated league - but with two great wings and our top prospect at the wing as well, I feel like where the Celtics really need help in the future will be either PG or BIG. So, rather than taking the best available player, I sort of want them to focus on those two positions and see who pans out.
You like never do that. It always ends badly. Like Boston passing over a wing early in the last decade to draft a guy to spell Garnett. And then passing over a PG in the second round because they already had Rondo. In a league where teams are increasingly playing three wings, you can never have too many of them.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Carey is basically what Greg Monroe was coming out of Georgetown. Not sure where he fits in today's NBA, which is why he's projected to go so late.

In 1995, Carey might have been the No. 1 overall pick.
Monroe did not average 26 and 13 per 36 minutes coming out of Georgetown like Carey did this year. I think Carey profiles to be more of a Sabonis type player.
 

lovegtm

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You like never do that. It always ends badly. Like Boston passing over a wing early in the last decade to draft a guy to spell Garnett. And then passing over a PG in the second round because they already had Rondo. In a league where teams are increasingly playing three wings, you can never have too many of them.
If Grant or Romeo pan out, the Celtics will absolutely roll out 4-5 wing lineups and feel fine about it.
 

128

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Monroe did not average 26 and 13 per 36 minutes coming out of Georgetown like Carey did this year. I think Carey profiles to be more of a Sabonis type player.
I see Sabonis as much of a quick-twitch athlete than Carey, but we'll see.
 

Jimbodandy

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Monroe did not average 26 and 13 per 36 minutes coming out of Georgetown like Carey did this year. I think Carey profiles to be more of a Sabonis type player.
I wouldn't be bummed to see them take Carey with the bottom 1st pick, just because useful bigs at 30th pick money are a good deal. And he may be a useful big.

But DA isn't passing on any wings that he loves.
 

RedOctober3829

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I wouldn't be bummed to see them take Carey with the bottom 1st pick, just because useful bigs at 30th pick money are a good deal. And he may be a useful big.

But DA isn't passing on any wings that he loves.
Yeah the 30th pick is a good time to take him. But at 14, either a super athletic big, a combo guard like Nesmith/Cole Anthony/RJ Hampton, or another wing would be the way I'd go
 

128

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Monroe did not average 26 and 13 per 36 minutes coming out of Georgetown like Carey did this year. I think Carey profiles to be more of a Sabonis type player.
Also, what pace did Georgetown play at during Monroe's time there? I'm guessing it was slower than the way Duke plays today. If we're looking at per-36 stats, I'm sure there were plenty of Duke guards with more impressive numbers than Malcolm Brogdon had at UVa.
 

RedOctober3829

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Also, what pace did Georgetown play at during Monroe's time there? I'm guessing it was slower than the way Duke plays today. If we're looking at per-36 stats, I'm sure there were plenty of Duke guards with more impressive numbers than Malcolm Brogdon had at UVa.
Probably a much slower pace at Georgetown than today and I agree with you on the Brogdon point as UVA is an outlier in their style today. But, Carey is extremely talented on the offensive end no matter what style. I think taking a chance on him at the bottom of the 1st round would be worth it. Having a big man who you can throw the ball into the post and get easy points on the 2nd unit is something this team could use.
 

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Probably a much slower pace at Georgetown than today and I agree with you on the Brogdon point as UVA is an outlier in their style today. But, Carey is extremely talented on the offensive end no matter what style. I think taking a chance on him at the bottom of the 1st round would be worth it. Having a big man who you can throw the ball into the post and get easy points on the 2nd unit is something this team could use.
FWIW, I would have no problem with picking Carey at No. 30, if only to take Poirer's spot on the roster. Then maybe he moves into the Kanter role.
 

JakeRae

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I'm a little torn, because the NBA has become a wing dominated league - but with two great wings and our top prospect at the wing as well, I feel like where the Celtics really need help in the future will be either PG or BIG. So, rather than taking the best available player, I sort of want them to focus on those two positions and see who pans out.
Our biggest present roster weakness is at the wing. Semi is bad and seems unlikely to make any sort of leap (I can see him turning into a useful veteran bench player on his 3rd contract but it will be a slow process). Romeo has potential but it is just a wish at this point. And, Grant is more of a small ball big than a big wing. Even if Romeo leaps next year and Hayward is still here, they could really use one more rotation option at the wing, and will likely have ongoing needs there since Hayward is not likely to be a Celtic forever. Ainge has also shown far more success finding quality bench pieces at the 1 and 5 in the FA market than on the wings, which makes sense in the modern NBA. I know you draft the best player available, so I’m not saying we must draft wings, but avoiding them would be foolish.
 

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Nurkic seems more like the good-case comp for Carey to me. I'd take Carey at 30, there are still roles for bigs if you like his makeup. I wonder about Isaiah Stewart as a better bet as a big, though.

I agree with nighthob that you have to take the best player on your board at 14. You really do that on all three picks, though if the call is close talent-wise you'd like some combo of a draft and stash/Europ type, a PG, a shooter, and a big if you aren't giving up talent to get it.
 

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I'd really like a shooter to put on the bench. I was reading KOC's draft guide and it seems like Aaron Nesmith fits that description right around where we'll be picking with the Grizz's pick?
 

Swedgin

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FWIW, I would have no problem with picking Carey at No. 30, if only to take Poirer's spot on the roster. Then maybe he moves into the Kanter role.
I would like them to look at a big at 30 (after having the used the first two picks on wings/guards), but would hate for it be Carey. He is way way too slow to play at the 4 and I don't think he can offer even approach Kanter levels of defense at the 5. Unless an offensive engine like Jokic, I don't think a big who is not a plus defender is worth using an asset on. If Ainge does consider a big with 30, I hope it someone who projects a plus defender, at least an average passer and excellent screen setter. I really like Tillman. Stewart is also intriguing as someone with a bit more offensive upside.

Hollinger put out his back end of the draft analysis. His take fits with what I saw watching Duke "He’ll get some buckets on the block and could have enough touch to stretch out to the perimeter a bit, but defensively I’m getting some serious Caleb Swanigan vibes. Once he helps on a ball screen he has virtually no chance of recovering back to his man, and he can’t protect the rim either. "
 

RedOctober3829

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I would like them to look at a big at 30 (after having the used the first two picks on wings/guards), but would hate for it be Carey. He is way way too slow to play at the 4 and I don't think he can offer even approach Kanter levels of defense at the 5. Unless an offensive engine like Jokic, I don't think a big who is not a plus defender is worth using an asset on. If Ainge does consider a big with 30, I hope it someone who projects a plus defender, at least an average passer and excellent screen setter. I really like Tillman. Stewart is also intriguing as someone with a bit more offensive upside.

Hollinger put out his back end of the draft analysis. His take fits with what I saw watching Duke "He’ll get some buckets on the block and could have enough touch to stretch out to the perimeter a bit, but defensively I’m getting some serious Caleb Swanigan vibes. Once he helps on a ball screen he has virtually no chance of recovering back to his man, and he can’t protect the rim either. "
Carey is 19 years old. How does anyone know what he can become as he gets older?
 

RedOctober3829

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I mean, that's exactly what the NBA, NHL, MLB, and NFL drafts are...
Not all sports are like that. In NBA/NHL/MLB there are a lot 18-19 year old kids getting picked where in the NFL it's all guys 3 years out of high school or more. NFL players are mostly what they are when they get drafted. Kids either out of HS or a year out are still developing into the players they will eventually be. I tend to try not to label kids that age as not being able to do this or that. They are still at the age where they are not done developing. In Carey's case, he can definitely work towards being a better defender by improving his footwork and speed. Stevens is the perfect coach to do that with.
 

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The thing about Carey is, I think he's pretty much an old-school 5 at this point. That's not a bad weapon to be able to bring off the bench, especially if he's an accomplished scorer, but a 4/5 with 3-point range is probably more valuable in today's game.

Even if Poirer is jettisoned, the C's potentially could still have Theis, Kanter, Time Lord and Tacko on their 2020-21 roster. That's a lot of 5s, though I guess Theis could slide to the 4 on occasion, depending on matchups.
 

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I don't track high school recruits, but given Danny has, around the 10-15 range, picked post-hype players who were highly rated out of high school and struggled a bit in college (Avery Bradley, Romeo Langford) are there any similar profiles in this year's draft around slot 14?
 

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The thing about Carey is, I think he's pretty much an old-school 5 at this point. That's not a bad weapon to be able to bring off the bench, especially if he's an accomplished scorer, but a 4/5 with 3-point range is probably more valuable in today's game.

Even if Poirer is jettisoned, the C's potentially could still have Theis, Kanter, Time Lord and Tacko on their 2020-21 roster. That's a lot of 5s, though I guess Theis could slide to the 4 on occasion, depending on matchups.
I see Carey or another limited guy like him as being a cost effective replacement for one of those MLE level bigs, if that's the direction that Ainge wants to go. Sure. We can find that guy for 5M, if he wants to come here. Or you can draft and pay him under 2M, and there's no recruitment necessary.

The chance of getting a franchise altering piece at 14 is small, let alone 30.