2020 Lineup

Teachdad46

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Who's going to lead off, and what does the lineup look like after he does?
When I subtract Mookie from my head a big, dark silence ensues.
I guess we all assume Alex Verdego will play the majority of RF in his place..but will he also assume Mookie's spot in the lineup? If he does, is that fair? If he does not, who will?
I'm not coming up with any clearcut frontrunners here...
 

Ale Xander

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Oct 31, 2013
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Im thinking:

Beni LF
Xander SS
Devers 3B
JD DH
Moreland 1B
Chavis 2B
Verdugo RF
Vasquez C
JBJ CF
 

Teachdad46

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I'm thinking:
Player X
Bennie LF
Xander SS
Devers 3b
JD DH
Moreland 1b
Chavis 2b
Verdugo RF
Vasquez C
JBJ CF

This has the LRL thing going for it. The problem, ofc, is that it has 10 men. If you lop off the back end of it and plunk a new CF into the Player X leadoff spot, it works.
Would they possibly consider Jackie to be Player X?
Or have I been smoking too much catnip...
 

E5 Yaz

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The problem with this exercise is that there won't be a regular starting lineup. Platoons, match-ups, analytics will dictate the lineup on any given day.

Don Zimmer ain't walking through that door
 

benhogan

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The problem with this exercise is that there won't be a regular starting lineup. Platoons, match-ups, analytics will dictate the lineup on any given day.

Don Zimmer ain't walking through that door
Zimmer signals for Campbell for the 37th straight night
 

Teachdad46

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The problem with this exercise is that there won't be a regular starting lineup. Platoons, match-ups, analytics will dictate the lineup on any given day.

Don Zimmer ain't walking through that door
Agreed, but I still think there's going to be a 'regular' lineup against RHP, and another one against LHP. Those two iterations will occur in more than half the games. Not Zimmeresque, but not random..
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The only change I'd make to Ale Xander's lineup is to flip Verdugo and Moreland. Verdugo was the (slightly) better hitter of the two last year, and given their ages that's most likely the direction things will continue in.

and vs. LHP, I'd flip Verdugo and Chavis, swap in Peraza for Moreland, and move Vazquez and JBJ up a notch:

Beni lf
Xander ss
Devers 3b
JDM DH
Chavis 1b
Verdugo rf
Vazquez c
JBJ cf
Peraza 2b
 

azsoxpatsfan

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The third spot in the order is supposed to be the least valuable of the top five due to coming up with 2 out bases empty more than any other spot in the lineup. I’d keep devers in the two spot with X fourth and jd fifth. I might go:

Benintendi
Devers
Verdugo
Bogaerts
Martinez
Moreland
Chavis
Bradley
Vazquez
 

Earthbound64

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It took me five seconds to google this:

Final Thoughts
Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
So, the 2nd-most important spot in the lineup?

Also apparently Joba Chamberlain should be in the rotation.
 

Ale Xander

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It took me five seconds to google this:

Using this, you'd probably go I would think

#4 JD (good hitter, with power)
#1 Xander (less power than Devers)
#2 Devers
#5 Verdugo (good hitter, on paper)
#3 Chavis or Moreland (5th best hitter)
#6 Beni (speed guy)
#8 JBJ (low OBP, don't put 9th so he can steal on occasion in front of better singles hitter)
#7 Moreland or Chavis
#9 Vasquez
 

edoug

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I’m excited for Verdugo’s bat.
Is it confirmed he’s healthy to start the year?
That's a good question. cbs sports says he's questionable to start the season. Rotoworld says that his injury shouldn't be an issue. And he won't miss any time because of it.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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I’d go:

Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Martinez DH
Benintendi LF
Chavis 2B
Verdugo RF
Moreland 1B
Vazquez C
Bradley CF
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Using this, you'd probably go I would think

#4 JD (good hitter, with power)
#1 Xander (less power than Devers)
#2 Devers
#5 Verdugo (good hitter, on paper)
#3 Chavis or Moreland (5th best hitter)
#6 Beni (speed guy)
#8 JBJ (low OBP, don't put 9th so he can steal on occasion in front of better singles hitter)
#7 Moreland or Chavis
#9 Vasquez
I think it's a stretch to call Chavis a better hitter than Benintendi, unless you think Beni's off year last year is the new normal. I think it's a blip and he'll come back fairly strong this year. I'd love to see Chavis develop to the degree that he slots ahead of that Benintendi, but I'm skeptical. I think his natural slot is #6.
 

nvalvo

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I think it's a stretch to call Chavis a better hitter than Benintendi, unless you think Beni's off year last year is the new normal. I think it's a blip and he'll come back fairly strong this year. I'd love to see Chavis develop to the degree that he slots ahead of that Benintendi, but I'm skeptical. I think his natural slot is #6.
I would need to see an adjustment before I was confident he was a better hitter than Bradley. After that initial hot streak, things were rough. Like 87 wRC+, 34% strikeout rate rough.
 

Manramsclan

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Why Benintendi, who is good at getting on base but has only middling power, in the cleanup spot? He seems much more like a leadoff hitter to me.
Benintendi Career with Men on 319/398/490 527 PA
Benintendi Career with RISP 339/429/525 916 PA

That's why I like Beni 4th in this particular lineup. Our best 3 hitters get the most ABs and then he hits in what appears to be a comfort zone.

I don't think his career leadoff stats warrant a mention because he hasn't hit leadoff a lot, but anecdotally he didn't seem to like it in the beginning of the 2019 season.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I would need to see an adjustment before I was confident he was a better hitter than Bradley. After that initial hot streak, things were rough. Like 87 wRC+, 34% strikeout rate rough.
Yeah, but that's not an unusual phase for a rookie to go through as the league figures him out. There's no reason to assume he can't adjust in turn and end up as a pretty good hitter; of course he might or might not have that in him, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until he shows me he can't do it.
 

nvalvo

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Yeah, but that's not an unusual phase for a rookie to go through as the league figures him out. There's no reason to assume he can't adjust in turn and end up as a pretty good hitter; of course he might or might not have that in him, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until he shows me he can't do it.
Sure. Does he need to hit fifth while he shows us this?
 

Plympton91

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Yeah, but that's not an unusual phase for a rookie to go through as the league figures him out. There's no reason to assume he can't adjust in turn and end up as a pretty good hitter; of course he might or might not have that in him, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt until he shows me he can't do it.
He was also injured.
 

Teachdad46

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Again, this from "Optimizing Your Lineup" in Beyond the Boxscore back in 2012 (originally linked to us by Jon Abby after an exhaustive, five second google search:

"Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:
#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with base stealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision."


AGAINST RHP
Verdugo
X
Bennie
JD
Devers
Chavis
Moreland
Vasquez
JBJ
I'm fan of LRLRL...etc in case that's not clear. If/when Pillar spells JBJ in center, I'd just flip Vasquez and Pillar,
I could not get past my old school concept of a leadoff hitter and am not convinced the players can, either. Thus Raffie is not in the leadoff spot in spite of clearly being one of the team's 'three best hitters'.
Agains LHP I'm not so sure as there are several possible platoons that might come into play. Pillar in the OF and others on the right side of the IF. Chavis prob plays against both, until he doesn't
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Again, this from "Optimizing Your Lineup" in Beyond the Boxscore back in 2012 (originally linked to us by Jon Abby after an exhaustive, five second google search:

"Another way to look at things is to order the batting slots by the leveraged value of the out. In plain English (sort of), we want to know how costly making an out is by each lineup position, based on the base-out situations they most often find themselves in, and then weighted by how often each lineup spot comes to the plate. Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:
#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9
So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with base stealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision."


AGAINST RHP
Verdugo
X
Bennie
JD
Devers
Chavis
Moreland
Vasquez
JBJ
I'm fan of LRLRL...etc in case that's not clear. If/when Pillar spells JBJ in center, I'd just flip Vasquez and Pillar,
I could not get past my old school concept of a leadoff hitter and am not convinced the players can, either. Thus Raffie is not in the leadoff spot in spite of clearly being one of the team's 'three best hitters'.
Agains LHP I'm not so sure as there are several possible platoons that might come into play. Pillar in the OF and others on the right side of the IF. Chavis prob plays against both, until he doesn't
I generally agree with the layout of this lineup, at least against RHP, although I might switch Beni and Verdugo out of concern that Beni might try to hit HRs out of the 3 slot rather than just getting on base, which I think was part of his problem last year (and why he bulked up last offseason). A slimmed-down Beni who's focused on getting on base, and maybe stealing some bases, would fit nicely in the leadoff spot. But some leadoff doubles from Verdugo would work nicely too.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I think the best three hitters on the team are pretty clearly JDM, Devers, and X, but you can't put them in the 1-2-4 slots and maintain R/L alternation without batting Devers leadoff, which seems...odd. So another LHH needs to go there; could be Beni or Verdugo. I think Beni is still at least potentially the better hitter of the two, and also the better baserunner, so I'd give him the nod. And given the line about putting the better of the fourth- and fifth-best hitters in the 5 slot "unless he's a high-homerun guy", I think that's a suggestion to put Devers, who will almost certainly hit the most HR of the three LHH, in the 3 hole. So the first five guys in that scenario go:

Benintendi
Bogaerts
Devers
Martinez
Verdugo

Really, though, you could put the three lefties in any combination that doesn't put Devers in the leadoff slot, and it would work. Bogaerts and Martinez clearly fit in the 2 and 4 spots.