- Dec 22, 2002
Interesting. I hadn't even really thought of trading Duran but I guess it's possible he has just as much or more value than Dalbec to the right GM. Almost all his value to date has come from a high BAbip. He's incredibly fast, so you'd expect a higher than average BAbip but not as high as they've been. He'd be a perfect sell high candidate although his performance in AA may have let some helium out of his balloon.It’s hard to overstate how bad the Mets’ defense is, though it’s also true Diaz is giving up a lot more hard contact. With no change in velocity and whiff rate, it’s also possible there’s some frustration creeping in there. I read some anecdote somewhere weeks ago that Mets pitchers have been trying to strike everyone out because they couldn’t trust the guys behind them.
It’d take more than this, but if I’m DD, I’m trying to sell Brodie on the similar Jarren Duran as a do-over for having given up Kelenic.
2019: A+/AA: .480/.338.
He has been better of late: 8 games, 35 PA, .455/.471/.515 (.571 BAbip). It brings his AA line to .250/.308/.297, 13bb/50k with 15 SB in 21 attempts in 211 PA. I've compared him to (non 2011) Jacoby Ellsbury but Ellsbury hit AA pitching right out of the gate and had much better strike zone judgement: 225 PA, .308/.387/.434, 24bb/25k, 16sb in 24 attempts. They were also basically the same exact age/level, with Duran being 6 days older. Duran has the advantage of being right handed despite batting lefty, as it gives him more positional flexibility than Jacoby. That's no small thing since he projected as a plus 2b.
For all those reasons, it also means he's far less blocked than Dalbec. He could potentially see time in all 3 OF positions and 2b, though you may not want his arm in RF.
I'd be fine with trading either player in a deal for a cost controlled arm with the potential of Diaz. If he was having a good year, offering both of them wouldn't even get you in the conversation. Nevermind one. I think he's worth the gamble especially since Duran and Dalbec are both gambles themselves. Dalbec's ability to hit for contact is a huge concern and I'm worried a lot of his BB at the AA level will turn into K's at the MLB level. Meanwhile, a lot of Duran's success has been due to his speed forcing inexperienced defenders to rush and he has shown pretty much 0 power to date. In any other farm system, they are probably ranked 5th and 6th, not 2nd and 3rd.
Outside of Casas, the only player I'd pause trading for a bullpen arm like Diaz is Bryan Mata, especially after having finally seen him pitch in person. He was the youngest player in the Carolina league to start the year and made a mockery out of the league and is now holding his own as one of the 5 youngest players in AA. I don't get why there isn't more hype around him, really. When he came into the league at 18, he was sitting around 92 and topping out at 94. Now his fastball is sitting at 95, topping out at 98 and he added a slider this year that he's taken a natural affinity to
How much did adding a slider help him you ask?
2019 vs LHB: 144 PA, .267/.324/.359, .359 BAbip vs RHB: .194/.294/.226, .257 BAbip
2018 vs LHB: 174 PA, .310/.480/.380, .368 BAbip vs RHB: .145/.298/.177, .209 BAbip
2017 vs LHB: 155 PA, .257/.325/.350, .333 BAbip vs RHB: .260/.341/.353, .339 BAbip
2016 vs LHB: 092 PA, .301/.370/.386, .373 BAbip, vs RHB: .207/.268/.286, .287 BAbip
All this while being incredibly young for the league he is in, if not the youngest. He's probably going to start next year in AAA, where he will still be 20 years old until May 3rd.