2019 Trade Deadline

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Cesar Crespo

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It’s hard to overstate how bad the Mets’ defense is, though it’s also true Diaz is giving up a lot more hard contact. With no change in velocity and whiff rate, it’s also possible there’s some frustration creeping in there. I read some anecdote somewhere weeks ago that Mets pitchers have been trying to strike everyone out because they couldn’t trust the guys behind them.

It’d take more than this, but if I’m DD, I’m trying to sell Brodie on the similar Jarren Duran as a do-over for having given up Kelenic.
Interesting. I hadn't even really thought of trading Duran but I guess it's possible he has just as much or more value than Dalbec to the right GM. Almost all his value to date has come from a high BAbip. He's incredibly fast, so you'd expect a higher than average BAbip but not as high as they've been. He'd be a perfect sell high candidate although his performance in AA may have let some helium out of his balloon.

2018: .421
2019: A+/AA: .480/.338.

He has been better of late: 8 games, 35 PA, .455/.471/.515 (.571 BAbip). It brings his AA line to .250/.308/.297, 13bb/50k with 15 SB in 21 attempts in 211 PA. I've compared him to (non 2011) Jacoby Ellsbury but Ellsbury hit AA pitching right out of the gate and had much better strike zone judgement: 225 PA, .308/.387/.434, 24bb/25k, 16sb in 24 attempts. They were also basically the same exact age/level, with Duran being 6 days older. Duran has the advantage of being right handed despite batting lefty, as it gives him more positional flexibility than Jacoby. That's no small thing since he projected as a plus 2b.

For all those reasons, it also means he's far less blocked than Dalbec. He could potentially see time in all 3 OF positions and 2b, though you may not want his arm in RF.

I'd be fine with trading either player in a deal for a cost controlled arm with the potential of Diaz. If he was having a good year, offering both of them wouldn't even get you in the conversation. Nevermind one. I think he's worth the gamble especially since Duran and Dalbec are both gambles themselves. Dalbec's ability to hit for contact is a huge concern and I'm worried a lot of his BB at the AA level will turn into K's at the MLB level. Meanwhile, a lot of Duran's success has been due to his speed forcing inexperienced defenders to rush and he has shown pretty much 0 power to date. In any other farm system, they are probably ranked 5th and 6th, not 2nd and 3rd.

Outside of Casas, the only player I'd pause trading for a bullpen arm like Diaz is Bryan Mata, especially after having finally seen him pitch in person. He was the youngest player in the Carolina league to start the year and made a mockery out of the league and is now holding his own as one of the 5 youngest players in AA. I don't get why there isn't more hype around him, really. When he came into the league at 18, he was sitting around 92 and topping out at 94. Now his fastball is sitting at 95, topping out at 98 and he added a slider this year that he's taken a natural affinity to

How much did adding a slider help him you ask?
2019 vs LHB: 144 PA, .267/.324/.359, .359 BAbip vs RHB: .194/.294/.226, .257 BAbip
2018 vs LHB: 174 PA, .310/.480/.380, .368 BAbip vs RHB: .145/.298/.177, .209 BAbip
2017 vs LHB: 155 PA, .257/.325/.350, .333 BAbip vs RHB: .260/.341/.353, .339 BAbip
2016 vs LHB: 092 PA, .301/.370/.386, .373 BAbip, vs RHB: .207/.268/.286, .287 BAbip

All this while being incredibly young for the league he is in, if not the youngest. He's probably going to start next year in AAA, where he will still be 20 years old until May 3rd.
 

nattysez

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Why? Let's hear some reasons.

Baseball Jones just gave you your lunch. And I agree, this potential transaction has nothing to do with the transaction that was made almost 30 years ago. Stop jumping at ghosts. It's pathetic.
Your reaction is a little over the top, but I'm willing to admit that my light-hearted one-liner was too game-thready for the main board.

While I agree with BJ to an extent, I think focusing on the specifics of my comparison ignores the broader strokes, which were the point of my comment. To wit:

Power is at a premium. Dalbec is a big power guy who's being portrayed as "blocked" at 3B when he could easily move to first. I don't like the idea that Dalbec should be a trade candidate merely because he currently plays the same position as Devers. I think the benefits of having a plus fielder at first (assuming, maybe too boldly, that Dalbec could make that transition) are a little underrated.

Diaz is a relief pitcher who's been inconsistent for the Mets. He was great for the Mariners, but as has been said 100 times, trading for a reliever and assuming he'll maintain/regain his performance is really risky (just ask the Cubs how things are going with Kimbrel).

Now maybe Dalbec is just another Travis Shaw-type who's relatively fungible. And maybe Diaz will return to form with a pitching coach under 80 helping him. But I'd like to see a better return for Dalbec or to give up less for a reliever who's inexplicably had a down season.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Interesting. I hadn't even really thought of trading Duran but I guess it's possible he has just as much or more value than Dalbec to the right GM. Almost all his value to date has come from a high BAbip. He's incredibly fast, so you'd expect a higher than average BAbip but not as high as they've been. He'd be a perfect sell high candidate although his performance in AA may have let some helium out of his balloon.

2018: .421
2019: A+/AA: .480/.338.

He has been better of late: 8 games, 35 PA, .455/.471/.515 (.571 BAbip). It brings his AA line to .250/.308/.297, 13bb/50k with 15 SB in 21 attempts in 211 PA. I've compared him to (non 2011) Jacoby Ellsbury but Ellsbury hit AA pitching right out of the gate and had much better strike zone judgement: 225 PA, .308/.387/.434, 24bb/25k, 16sb in 24 attempts. They were also basically the same exact age/level, with Duran being 6 days older. Duran has the advantage of being right handed despite batting lefty, as it gives him more positional flexibility than Jacoby. That's no small thing since he projected as a plus 2b.

For all those reasons, it also means he's far less blocked than Dalbec. He could potentially see time in all 3 OF positions and 2b, though you may not want his arm in RF.

I'd be fine with trading either player in a deal for a cost controlled arm with the potential of Diaz. If he was having a good year, offering both of them wouldn't even get you in the conversation. Nevermind one. I think he's worth the gamble especially since Duran and Dalbec are both gambles themselves. Dalbec's ability to hit for contact is a huge concern and I'm worried a lot of his BB at the AA level will turn into K's at the MLB level. Meanwhile, a lot of Duran's success has been due to his speed forcing inexperienced defenders to rush and he has shown pretty much 0 power to date. In any other farm system, they are probably ranked 5th and 6th, not 2nd and 3rd.

Outside of Casas, the only player I'd pause trading for a bullpen arm like Diaz is Bryan Mata, especially after having finally seen him pitch in person. He was the youngest player in the Carolina league to start the year and made a mockery out of the league and is now holding his own as one of the 5 youngest players in AA. I don't get why there isn't more hype around him, really. When he came into the league at 18, he was sitting around 92 and topping out at 94. Now his fastball is sitting at 95, topping out at 98 and he added a slider this year that he's taken a natural affinity to

How much did adding a slider help him you ask?
2019 vs LHB: 144 PA, .267/.324/.359, .359 BAbip vs RHB: .194/.294/.226, .257 BAbip
2018 vs LHB: 174 PA, .310/.480/.380, .368 BAbip vs RHB: .145/.298/.177, .209 BAbip
2017 vs LHB: 155 PA, .257/.325/.350, .333 BAbip vs RHB: .260/.341/.353, .339 BAbip
2016 vs LHB: 092 PA, .301/.370/.386, .373 BAbip, vs RHB: .207/.268/.286, .287 BAbip

All this while being incredibly young for the league he is in, if not the youngest. He's probably going to start next year in AAA, where he will still be 20 years old until May 3rd.
Yep. Mata is probably a half season away from being considered one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. Intriguing results, age, and stuff. You don't give him up for a reliever.

Also, again, teams just aren't giving up much for relievers and rentals these days. It's just not the market anymore.
 

chawson

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Power is at a premium. Dalbec is a big power guy who's being portrayed as "blocked" at 3B when he could easily move to first. I don't like the idea that Dalbec should be a trade candidate merely because he currently plays the same position as Devers. I think the benefits of having a plus fielder at first (assuming, maybe too boldly, that Dalbec could make that transition) are a little underrated.

Diaz is a relief pitcher who's been inconsistent for the Mets. He was great for the Mariners, but as has been said 100 times, trading for a reliever and assuming he'll maintain/regain his performance is really risky (just ask the Cubs how things are going with Kimbrel).

Now maybe Dalbec is just another Travis Shaw-type who's relatively fungible. And maybe Diaz will return to form with a pitching coach under 80 helping him. But I'd like to see a better return for Dalbec or to give up less for a reliever who's inexplicably had a down season.
Power, while never bad, is definitely not at a premium. Leaguewide ISO is .181. Last year it was .161. Five years ago it was .135. A lot of regular ass dudes are going to eclipse 20 home runs this year, some of them at negative or nonexistent value to their teams.

Relievers are indeed cautionary tales as you point out, but present-day 31-year-old Kimbrel is a weird comp for 25-year-old Diaz. Would you not trade Dalbec for 2013 vintage Kimbrel?
 

nattysez

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Power, while never bad, is definitely not at a premium. Leaguewide ISO is .181. Last year it was .161. Five years ago it was .135. A lot of regular ass dudes are going to eclipse 20 home runs this year, some of them at negative or nonexistent value to their teams.

Relievers are indeed cautionary tales as you point out, but present-day 31-year-old Kimbrel is a weird comp for 25-year-old Diaz. Would you not trade Dalbec for 2013 vintage Kimbrel?
The fact that a lot of people are hitting homers doesn't mean that guys with true power who can hit with power to all fields are not in demand.

I guess I set myself for the Kimbrel strawman. Asking "would you trade for a reliever who pitched well after you acquired him?" is a pointless exercise.
 

agibson2000

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As the Red Sox continue their search for bullpen help and the Mets continue to puzzle onlookers, the two teams have been in touch about a potential Edwin Diaz deal. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted early this morning that third base prospect Bobby Dalbec or corner infielder Triston Casas would likely be targeted as the centerpiece of any deal by the Mets. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweetsthat Boston has indeed discussed a possible Diaz swap with the Mets, though, adding that the Red Sox are likely to add at least one, if not two relievers in the coming days. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that there’s “nothing hot” between the two sides at the moment, however.
- per TradeRumors.com
 

nvalvo

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Is there any chance they add a center fielder that can hit?
JBJ has an .890 OPS over the 225 PA since the start of the Houston series where he got his swing right. Since that date, he's been the 7th best CF in baseball, behind Trout, (Ketel) Marte, Laureano, Acuna, Kepler, and (Starling) Marte. Not the problem.

Also, we need him to bring Edwin Diaz' BABIP back to earth.
 

Byrdbrain

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Is there any chance they add a center fielder that can hit?
Why?
I wish JBJ was a better hitter but they have one of the best offenses in the league is there really any reason to add to it? If there was do you have any ideas as to who it would be?

JBJ isn't great but he isn't the problem with the team, if they can get an arm for the pen without giving up much that would go much further in helping out the team.

Edit: Didn't mean to pile on there.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Well, he was already on the team, so we didn't have to give up assets to see if he could be trusted. There's a level of knowledge with guys that you've had on roster all season that you don't have with others.
Well, if it's a matter of familiarity...

@Ken_Rosenthal Per sources, #SFGiants drawing sudden interest in LH Drew Pomeranz, who since moving to ‘pen has struck out six in 4 1/3 shutout innings, allowing only one baserunner. Team’s LH relievers also include W. Smith, Watson, with Suarez, Selman at Triple A. At least one could be moved.
 

glennhoffmania

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If Diaz is healthy he's exactly what they should try to get assuming the price is right. That would allow them to use Workman, Barnes, etc., in lower leverage situations and give them a little more rest. His numbers aren't great this year but if you dig a little deeper he doesn't look so bad.

His K and BB rates are in line with his career averages. But his BABIP and HR/FB are significantly inflated. One could argue that it's a sample size issue and they'll normalize. But his hard hit % is way up this year. My main concern would be if he's dealing with an injury. If he's fine, this is most likely a result of looking at a sample size of only 40 innings. He went from one pitchers' park to another so that wouldn't explain it. It's probably just some bad luck mixed in with not missing enough barrels, but he has enough of a track record to suggest that he'll be better. But again, the key is whether he's healthy. I wouldn't write him off based on 40 innings if he isn't hurt.
 

agibson2000

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Bob Nightengale @BNightengale - There is a growing sentiment among GMs to push the #MLB trade deadline back to Aug. 15 to give teams more time to determine whether they are buyers or sellers in light of slow activity. They will discuss at the GM meetings in November in Phoenix. (not sure if this is where you guys would like it, but since it has to do with the deadline) just tweeted
 

BaseballJones

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Bob Nightengale @BNightengale - There is a growing sentiment among GMs to push the #MLB trade deadline back to Aug. 15 to give teams more time to determine whether they are buyers or sellers in light of slow activity. They will discuss at the GM meetings in November in Phoenix. (not sure if this is where you guys would like it, but since it has to do with the deadline) just tweeted
I like this idea, especially since there's no longer any waiver-trade period following the July 31 trade deadline.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Power is at a premium. Dalbec is a big power guy who's being portrayed as "blocked" at 3B when he could easily move to first. I don't like the idea that Dalbec should be a trade candidate merely because he currently plays the same position as Devers. I think the benefits of having a plus fielder at first (assuming, maybe too boldly, that Dalbec could make that transition) are a little underrated.
That's the thing. Dalbec is a lot better 3b than Devers. If you are playing Dalbec at 1b and Devers at 3b, you are literally making your team worse for no reason at all. If Dalbec isn't going to play 3b for us, they need to trade him. A ton of his value comes from his glove.

Is there any chance they add a center fielder that can hit?
Arbitrary cut off and all, but since May 20th where he hit his first HR, JBJ is slashing .283/.374/.538 in 244 PA. He had a rough stretch earlier this month but has been good recently
 

JBJ_HOF

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Dalbac is a worse 3B than Devers right now and he is 2 years older than him. Saying he is better than Devers defensively right now is a fantasy.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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How many times have we heard "nothing close" in trade talks only to have the trade go down within the next 24 hours?

With as much run as the Diaz-to-Boston stuff has been getting, it seems like it would be a surprise if it DIDN'T happen.
 

sean1562

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Bob Nightengale @BNightengale - There is a growing sentiment among GMs to push the #MLB trade deadline back to Aug. 15 to give teams more time to determine whether they are buyers or sellers in light of slow activity. They will discuss at the GM meetings in November in Phoenix. (not sure if this is where you guys would like it, but since it has to do with the deadline) just tweeted
why even bother with eliminating the waiver trade period then? wouldn't a couple of seasons without it give GMs a better idea of how to manage it?
 

crow216

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"Wah, I'm a GM and my job is hard!" If you can't figure out whether your team is a contender after 4 months, another 15 days isn't likely going to change anything. Teams hoping for a hot streak from now until August 15th should be sellers.
 
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Yeah. Improving the league's top offense should be a priority.

Hey, be nice, I'm sensitive. Sarcasm aside, I'm all for improving the team any way they can. If the price isn't right for their bullpen need, I'd be ok with strengthening an offense that's already very strong.
 

DJnVa

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Well, if it's a matter of familiarity...

@Ken_Rosenthal Per sources, #SFGiants drawing sudden interest in LH Drew Pomeranz, who since moving to ‘pen has struck out six in 4 1/3 shutout innings, allowing only one baserunner. Team’s LH relievers also include W. Smith, Watson, with Suarez, Selman at Triple A. At least one could be moved.
Well, as long has he's thrown 4.3 nice innings, then I guess he's all good.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If the Sox could get Diaz for Dalbec, I'd be thrilled.

Diaz has had basically three huge blowup games:

May 29 at LAD: 0.1 ip, 5 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb
June 27 at Phi: 0.1 ip, 3 h, 5 r, 5 er, 2 bb
July 5 vs Phi: 0.1 ip, 3 h, 4 r, 4 er, 1 bb

Totals for those three games: 1.0 ip, 11 h, 13 r, 13 er, 4 bb, 2 k, 117.00 era, 15.00 whip

Now, all the games count and these can't just be thrown out. But when dealing with small sample sizes like relievers have, three games like this *totally* skew the season's stats. He's pitched in 44 games and has given up runs in 10 of them. Apart from these three blowup games, his season stat line would be: 39.0 ip, 34 h, 9 r, 9 er, 9 bb, 59 k, 2.08 era, 1.10 whip, 13.6 k/9

Again, those three games count. But closers giving up 4 and 5 runs generally happen over the course of several games, and as bad as those three games were, they only count for three games. It seems like he's just had a few epic meltdowns, which would mean that if you bring him into a game, you'd better have someone else warming in case it starts to go south. But other than these three games, he's been pretty damned good all season long.
If you remove Walden's exactly 3 blow up games of 3 or more runs, (4er, 3er, 4r/2er) his overall line is 49.2 ip, 34 hits, 14r, 12 er, 14bb, 50k, 2.17 era, .967 WHIP, 9.1 K/9.
If you remove Barnes exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 er in each, his overall line is 39.2 ip, 27 hits, 10r/10 er, 15bb/73k, 2.27 era, 1.06 WHIP, 16.6 K/9.
If you remove Colten Brewer's exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 or more runs (4, 3, 3) his overall line is 42.0 ip, 40 hits, 13r/10er, 30bb/42k, 2.14 era, 1.667 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Doing this will pretty much make every bullpen arm look elite.
 

nvalvo

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If you remove Walden's exactly 3 blow up games of 3 or more runs, (4er, 3er, 4r/2er) his overall line is 49.2 ip, 34 hits, 14r, 12 er, 14bb, 50k, 2.17 era, .967 WHIP, 9.1 K/9.
If you remove Barnes exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 er in each, his overall line is 39.2 ip, 27 hits, 10r/10 er, 15bb/73k, 2.27 era, 1.06 WHIP, 16.6 K/9.
If you remove Colten Brewer's exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 or more runs (4, 3, 3) his overall line is 42.0 ip, 40 hits, 13r/10er, 30bb/42k, 2.14 era, 1.667 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Doing this will pretty much make every bullpen arm look elite.
I hear what you're saying, but the guy with the 16+ K/9 looks a lot more elite under that treatment than Brewer or Walden do. And Diaz' 13.6 looks much more like Barnes' than like the other two.

9 K/9 is now a league average strikeout rate.

How many times have we heard "nothing close" in trade talks only to have the trade go down within the next 24 hours?

With as much run as the Diaz-to-Boston stuff has been getting, it seems like it would be a surprise if it DIDN'T happen.
I would guess this means that DD and VW have the parameters of a deal in place, but Dombrowski wants to wait until the deadline to see if anything more appealing shakes loose, especially from San Francisco or Pittsburgh.

The Pirates just dealt Jordan Lyles, an okay reliever turned bad starter, to the Brewers for Cody Ponce, P, a former high pick who has transitioned to relief in his third season in AA. Lyles had relieved for the Brewers last season fairly effectively, so most expect that to be his role again.

I mention this only to emphasize that prices do not seem high. Lyles isn't some prize, but Ponce is very much a post-prospect. The Boston farm equivalent would maybe be Teddy Stankiewicz: a 2nd rounder who looked for awhile like he might have a shot, but doesn't really look that way anymore.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And just because I'm interested here are some yankee relievers if you remove their blow up games

Aroldis Chapman only has one game of 3er or more. Remove it and his line is 39.2 ip, 28 hits, 13 r, 9 er, 18bb/56k, 2.04 era, 1.16 WHIP,12.7 K/9
Ottavino only has one game of 3er or more. Remove it and his line is 45.0 ip, 29 hits, 6r, 5er, 29bb/62k, 1.00 era, 1.29 WHIP, 12.4 K/9
Britton only has one game of 3 er or more. Remove it and his line is 42.0 ip, 30 hits, 9r, 9er 21bb/36k, 1.93 era, 1.21 WHIP, 7.7 K/9

Chad Green has 4 such games, 3 of which came in April and one on Saturday. Removing them and his line is 38.1 ip, 40 hits, 11r, 10er, 6bb/51k, 2.35 era, 1.20 WHIP, 12.0 K/9.

It seems like the difference between a bullpen arm being garbage and a bullpen arm being elite are the blow up games.
 

joe dokes

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If you remove Walden's exactly 3 blow up games of 3 or more runs, (4er, 3er, 4r/2er) his overall line is 49.2 ip, 34 hits, 14r, 12 er, 14bb, 50k, 2.17 era, .967 WHIP, 9.1 K/9.
If you remove Barnes exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 er in each, his overall line is 39.2 ip, 27 hits, 10r/10 er, 15bb/73k, 2.27 era, 1.06 WHIP, 16.6 K/9.
If you remove Colten Brewer's exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 or more runs (4, 3, 3) his overall line is 42.0 ip, 40 hits, 13r/10er, 30bb/42k, 2.14 era, 1.667 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Doing this will pretty much make every bullpen arm look elite.
I understand the point your trying to make about cherry-picking, but I think you've made the opposite point:

It doesn't make Brewer look any more elite than anyone already thinks he is. It makes him look serviceable as the team's 5th best reliever.
Barnes, has, in fact, been a damn good pitcher. Again.
Walden has been really good this year (although given his career history, I'm not sure where he goes from today).

So, it seems to me that rather than making them "all look elite", removing the disasters makes them look closer to what their recent reality has been. The real question , IMO, is how often they have disaster games. Every other game? Every 10th game?

I suppose John Smoltz remains the poster child for this. In 2002, he gave up 8ER in 2/3 of an inning in his second game. He only had 3 or 4 other bad games in 75 total appearances that year. His ERA ended up at 3.25, but was still over 4 in August. I think that one game upped his ERA by one full run.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I hear what you're saying, but the guy with the 16+ K/9 looks a lot more elite under that treatment than Brewer or Walden do. And Diaz' 13.6 looks much more like Barnes' than like the other two.

9 K/9 is now a league average strikeout rate.
Diaz is clearly in another level but it's pretty amazing what happens when you go around the league and remove the worst outings. When it makes Colten Brewer look good, it's kind of surprising.
I'm also not going to get into the argument about why K/9 is a junk stat again but Walden actually has an above average K% and BB%. Diaz has him beat in both. Surprisingly the rates are basically identical across leagues, despite the DH. To be clear, I'm all for getting Diaz.

Diaz: 7.4% BB%, 34.7% K%.
Walden: 7.9% and 25.5%.
Average: 8.5% BB% 22.8% K%
 

j44thor

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Diaz is clearly in another level but it's pretty amazing what happens when you go around the league and remove the worst outings. When it makes Colten Brewer look good, it's kind of surprising.
I'm also not going to get into the argument about why K/9 is a junk stat again but Walden actually has an above average K% and BB%. Diaz has him beat in both. Surprisingly the rates are basically identical across leagues, despite the DH. To be clear, I'm all for getting Diaz.

Diaz: 7.4% BB%, 34.7% K%.
Walden: 7.9% and 25.5%.
Average: 8.5% BB% 22.8% K%
If you remove Colten Brewer's exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 or more runs (4, 3, 3) his overall line is 42.0 ip, 40 hits, 13r/10er, 30bb/42k, 2.14 era, 1.667 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Nothing about Brewer's #'s look good when you take out his 3 worst games save for his ERA which is an incredibly inefficient way to measure relievers.
 

BaseballJones

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This is definitely an interesting discussion, and I've long advocated for some kind of stat that takes frequency into account. For example, which late-inning reliever's 10 game line distributions would you rather have? (both are made-up guys). Both guys end up with the same overall stat line of:

10.0 ip, 5 h, 5 r, 5 er, 5 bb, 10 k, 4.50 era, 1.00 whip, 9.0 k/9

Reliever A
- 8 appearances of 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k
- 1 appearance of 1.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 2 k
- 1 appearance of 1.0 ip, 4 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 1 k

Reliever B
- 5 appearances of 1.0 ip, 1 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 1 k
- 5 appearances of 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k

I'd rather have the guy who is dominant 9 times out of 10 and then has the one crazy blow-up game, over the guy who half the time gives up runs. If it's a mop-up guy, who cares. But a late-inning reliever, who often comes into the game with the game being tied or up 1 run? Gimme reliever A over reliever B.

So I think there should be some way to quantify this. Something like "median ERA" or whatever. Something that gives you a hint, just by looking at it, whether a pitcher is a steady run giver-upper or an occasional blow-up kind of guy.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Walden has been really good this year (although given his career history, I'm not sure where he goes from today).
Walden was the one who made me curious and I think this is a totally fair opinion. I've just seen some people already write him off because he had a few bad outings. He's not going to have a 2.17 era and a WHIP under 1 for the entire year but he' shouldn't have to. That would make him one of the best bullpen arms on earth. Maybe he ends up going the Brasier route but he should be given a chance to pitch out of it and so far he has. I just threw in Colten Brewer because I don't think he's particularly good and I was curious what would happen to his overall line. Colten Brewer is also one of those guys where the numbers posted don't tell the whole story as he has a GB ratio of 1.20:1 and a ground out to airout ratio of 1.80:1.

I agree with the disaster game angle. The Yankees top guys have had far less disaster outings than ours and that's why their overall numbers are more impressive. Workman only has 1, and not shockingly his era is in the low 2s. Our top 5 guys by IP in the bullpen have 12 "disaster games" of 3 or more runs. Brasier with 2, Walden with 3, Barnes with 3, Brewer with 3, Workman with 1. The Yankees top 5 guys have 7, with Green having 4 of those by himself. Britton, Chapman and Ottavino have 1 each, Tommy Kahnle has zero. I"m not going to look at the actual math but that's at least 15 er, and at most 5.0 ip. It's probably half that since obviously a lot of those outings end after 0.0 or 0.1 ip.

Basic math, assume the average bullpen goes 3 innings per game, and that the season is 75% over. So that would be 20 er over the course of 480 IP, or an era difference of .375. I'm being very, very conservative too, It could be closer to half a run.
 

Max Power

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This is definitely an interesting discussion, and I've long advocated for some kind of stat that takes frequency into account. For example, which late-inning reliever's 10 game line distributions would you rather have? (both are made-up guys). Both guys end up with the same overall stat line of:

10.0 ip, 5 h, 5 r, 5 er, 5 bb, 10 k, 4.50 era, 1.00 whip, 9.0 k/9

Reliever A
- 8 appearances of 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k
- 1 appearance of 1.0 ip, 1 h, 0 r, 0 er, 2 bb, 2 k
- 1 appearance of 1.0 ip, 4 h, 4 r, 4 er, 3 bb, 1 k

Reliever B
- 5 appearances of 1.0 ip, 1 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 1 k
- 5 appearances of 1.0 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k

I'd rather have the guy who is dominant 9 times out of 10 and then has the one crazy blow-up game, over the guy who half the time gives up runs. If it's a mop-up guy, who cares. But a late-inning reliever, who often comes into the game with the game being tied or up 1 run? Gimme reliever A over reliever B.

So I think there should be some way to quantify this. Something like "median ERA" or whatever. Something that gives you a hint, just by looking at it, whether a pitcher is a steady run giver-upper or an occasional blow-up kind of guy.
fivethirtyeight.com called that a Goose Egg.


I don't think they ever ran the numbers for anything after 2017.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you remove Colten Brewer's exactly 3 blow up games where he allowed 3 or more runs (4, 3, 3) his overall line is 42.0 ip, 40 hits, 13r/10er, 30bb/42k, 2.14 era, 1.667 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

Nothing about Brewer's #'s look good when you take out his 3 worst games save for his ERA which is an incredibly inefficient way to measure relievers.
That was kinda my point but I failed on making it. You remove the 3 worst outings of any bullpen arm and you realize just how small the difference is between success and failure when Colten Brewer only allowed 2.79 R/9. He's also a guy who is going to look far worse if you are looking at the numbers we enjoy like K/BB, K%, BB% because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher. I threw him in my comparison because I think he's terrible but despite that, he's effective most of the time. Of course when a pitcher has a WHIP of 1.667, it's not exactly surprising if he has a disaster outing every now and again because he's always flirting with disaster.

You remove the 3-4 worst outings of any bullpen arm and you are left with a guy with an era in the mid 2's, even if his WHIP is 1.67. I don't know how to make the argument I'm trying to make but removing the worst outings from pitchers seems to be removing something very important from the equation because maybe blow up games are a product of the pitcher.
 

chawson

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Diaz is clearly in another level but it's pretty amazing what happens when you go around the league and remove the worst outings. When it makes Colten Brewer look good, it's kind of surprising.
I'm also not going to get into the argument about why K/9 is a junk stat again but Walden actually has an above average K% and BB%. Diaz has him beat in both. Surprisingly the rates are basically identical across leagues, despite the DH. To be clear, I'm all for getting Diaz.

Diaz: 7.4% BB%, 34.7% K%.
Walden: 7.9% and 25.5%.
Average: 8.5% BB% 22.8% K%
But that rate isn’t because of some innately good whatness of Walden — it’s the result of a different repertoire he had, specifically his slider, which the league has since adjusted to.

Walden 2019:
Through May 23: 30.8 K%, 6.5 BB%, 0.64 HR/9, 2.66 FIP • 43.4% sliders
May 24-present: 20.2 K%, 9.2 BB%, 1.14 HR/9, 4.54 FIP • 34.2% sliders
 

joe dokes

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You remove the 3-4 worst outings of any bullpen arm and you are left with a guy with an era in the mid 2's, even if his WHIP is 1.67. I don't know how to make the argument I'm trying to make but removing the worst outings from pitchers seems to be removing something very important from the equation because maybe blow up games are a product of the pitcher.
I think you're onto something useful -- that ERA is often a bad way to measure relievers. We probably all know that, to an extent. It's not so much that "removing" disasters is good, bad, or indifferent. It may be that the better use is the number or frequency of disaster games. Or maybe removing them gives a more level analytical playing field to those who believe that reliever ERA is of little value.

Something like:
"Take away Brewer's really shitty games, and he still doesn't look really good, beyond his ERA" vs. "Barnes looks quite good when you take away the few shitty games he's had" vs "Sure, reliever 'x' looks good when you take away the shitty games, but every other appearance is shitty."
 
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Cesar Crespo

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I think you're onto something useful -- that ERA is often a bad way to measure relievers. We probably all know that, to an extent. It's not so much that "removing" disasters is good, bad, or indifferent. It may be that the better use is the number or frequency of disaster games. Or maybe removing them gives a more level analytical playing field to those who believe that reliever ERA is of little value.

Something like:
"Take away Brewer's really shitty games, and he still doesn't look really good, beyond his ERA" vs. "Barnes looks quite good when you take away the few shitty games he's had" vs "Sure, reliever 'x' looks good when you take away the shitty games, but every other appearance is shitty."
Right, but Walden has had 3 shitty games in 43 games, Barnes has had 3 in 46 and Brewer 3 in 44. Maybe the problem is describing a shitty game as 3 r or more. If you change it to 2, Brewer jumps to 6, Walden jumps to 6 and Barnes jumps to 5. So I guess not really. If you make it 0r, it's 29/43 for Walden, though he's had multiple 2.0 games so that may be unfair to him. It's 35/43 for Barnes and 31/44 from Brewer. Brewer has a lot of .1 and .2 IP games but also multiple inning games as well. Workman 41/49. It's not the best, but I'd say looking at O run outings is far superior than removing 3r outings. It's just going to benefit guys who come in for only an out or two and hurt guys who come out for multiple innings.

For Diaz, it's 34/44. Right around Barnes.

The numbers also make sense outside of Walden/Brewer but that can be explained by the long and short outings. I think most people would rank them this year as Workman, Barnes/Diaz, Walden, Brewer.
 

amRadio

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Scooping up Diaz while he's struggling is a move I really like. I'd love to bet on a return to form this year and in the future.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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That was kinda my point but I failed on making it. You remove the 3 worst outings of any bullpen arm and you realize just how small the difference is between success and failure when Colten Brewer only allowed 2.79 R/9. He's also a guy who is going to look far worse if you are looking at the numbers we enjoy like K/BB, K%, BB% because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher. I threw him in my comparison because I think he's terrible but despite that, he's effective most of the time. Of course when a pitcher has a WHIP of 1.667, it's not exactly surprising if he has a disaster outing every now and again because he's always flirting with disaster.
Now do Thornburg!
 

BornToRun

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I think this is going to happen and the return will be lighter than we think.
I would be over the moon if we landed Edwin Diaz. Young, nasty, and cost controlled. He’s been bad this year but it looks like a combination of bad luck and the Mets ruining everything they touch.
 

chawson

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Since the Mets were reported to want major league players in return I wonder if Workman would be part of a deal. He’s repped by CAA and Brodie has gotten a rep for stockpiling former clients (though Workman wasn’t Brodie’s client directly, from what I can tell). Houck is too, for that matter.

Workman + Duran + maybe a third piece for Diaz would be interesting, then another small deal for a back-end reliever. It would give credence to the rumor that the Sox were in on “one, maybe two” relief pitchers.
 

RedOctober3829

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I feel like Buster really wants this trade to happen.

What the Mets are doing with these trades is mind-boggling. Trade for an ace, deal away your closer.... if schizophrenia could be embodied by a baseball team, they'd be the slam-dunk choice.
Buster was in Boston the entire weekend. He had to have heard that this was a possibility and it’s why he’s been all over this.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Some analysis on Diaz while we're waiting for more news:
 

Danny_Darwin

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My only hesitation about trading away Chavis is that Cora seems to think that Holt will turn into Thanos-dust if he faces a left-handed pitcher.
 

E5 Yaz

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