There are two really important dynamics that inform what is happening right now with regards to the NBA and China. The first is that the Chinese government does not believe in the ability of its citizens or businesses operating within its borders to criticize the government. The second is that unlike in the United States, the NBA is dealing with businesses in China that are likely either owned by the government or directly report to the government. I don't think this is about showing seriousness early on in order for others to extrapolate what might happen with bigger items. That extrapolation may happen anyways, but it's not a core component of what is happening. Rather, it is the Chinese government dictating the terms of how to do business in China, and they don't want criticism of the Chinese government or support for those who criticize it to exist within their borders or on platforms that are accessible within their borders.
It looks different and weird to us because most companies in the US don't have any direct, or even indirect affiliation with the US government, and because the US government allows for public dissent for its citizens and companies. Most of your large companies in China take orders from the CCP in one way or another, and so the immediate ability to cancel all of these deals, as well as telling the NBA to fire an employee for a tweet make sense when viewed in that context, because in China, the govenrment
would tell a company to fire and employee and it would be done. If you want evidence of this, look at what has happened at Cathay Pacific in the
last couple months.
Look, as rev said above, this whole incident has yanked back the veil for many people on how the CCP operates. I still have real doubts as to whether other companies start to follow suit in pushing back on this kind of censorship, just because there are so many companies with a boatload of revenue coming from China that would have their stock prices decimated if they had to give up access to that market. While I'd like to see them do so, I'm not the one making the sacrifice there, so I get it if they don't do anything. Just tell us you're about the money and most people won't care in the long run. I do know there's a decent amount of supply-chain reorientation that has already been going on, and I would anticipate smart executives will accelerate that, even though there's no manufacturing market in the world with the scale or infrastructure that China has, so it's going to result in additional costs, even if you can move the work elsewhere. I don't know if this movement has staying power of if it's just a quick burst of energy, but it is fascinating to watch the dynamics.