2017 Colts: Better Luck Next Year!

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
91,827
Oregon
The Colts drafting a Hooker is matched only by the Orioles first-round pick being a pitcher named DL
 

pappymojo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2010
6,756
http://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2017/08/16/andrew-lucks-secret-pain-timeline-injury-colts-hid-more-than-year/523709001/

Indy Star article so feel free not to click on the link.

Andrew Luck hurt his throwing shoulder early in the 2015 season, but it wasn't until 15 months later — January 2017 — that fans learned just how badly he had been hurt, and how long he had played with the injury.

With the 2017 season looming and Luck only recently throwing a football again, here’s the timeline of his painful 2015 and 2016 seasons, and where he stands now.
2015

Sept. 27: Luck's sideline jump for joy reveals relief in the Indianapolis Colts' first victory of the season, a win against the Titans that avoids an 0-3 start. But the game — Luck is sacked three times and hit four others — comes with a price.

IndyStar sports columnist Gregg Doyel saw signs of trouble in the locker room after the game:

Andrew Luck was struggling to put on his shirt. His pants weren’t going on much easier, either. Didn’t look like he could bend. Didn’t look like he could breathe. Luck was hurting and he was exhausted, and finally an Indianapolis Colts security official was at his side, helping him pack his stuff and get out of this locker room at Nissan Stadium, where it didn’t feel like a team had just won.
Oct. 5-6: Luck works out with the team both days, and took the majority of first-team snaps on the second day as Hasselbeck sat out practice with the burrito-induced illness. Luck and Hasselbeck both are listed as questionable for the game. Hasselbeck makes it clear he expects No. 12 to play. Luck tells the media: "I'm preparing to start, and to play."

Indy Sports Central’s Chris Hagan reports that Luck suffered a subluxation of his throwing shoulder, also known as a partial separation of the shoulder. Hagan reports that a source close to the situation says that at least three out-of-state experts have looked at the injury and given their input, and that Luck had an MRI a week ago.

Doctors are concerned about Luck’s labrum, cartilage that helps keep the shoulder in place.

Asked about the report, Pagano says, “I hadn’t heard that. Sore shoulder is what I heard.”
Oct. 12: Stephen Holder writes about the confusion surrounding Luck:

When it comes to the status of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, the only certainty during the past two weeks is that the information provided was wholly unreliable.

One minute, Luck’s getting better. The next, never mind, he’s not playing. One minute he is said to be practicing, the next it’s revealed he was largely a spectator.

At this point, maybe none of it even matters.

This does: Luck has missed two straight games with a throwing shoulder injury, and the Colts play the New England Patriots on Sunday night.
Oct. 30: Zak Keefer writes about Luck's passing, which is now lackluster:


Luck’s throws have been hesitant, like the one on a crossing route to T.Y. Hilton in the second quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Saints. They’ve been alarmingly wide, like the one on the out route to Coby Fleener a few minutes later in the same game. They’ve been senseless, too, like the one he forced to Donte Moncrief in the end zone that the Saints easily picked off just before halftime.

He’s missed on screen passes and post patterns, throws Luck typically makes in his sleep. He’s locking onto his receivers the way a rookie QB would. It appears he’s aiming some passes rather than throwing them. On others, he's leaning back, almost as if he’s trying to use his whole body’s momentum to compensate for a lack of velocity.

His mechanics, his footwork, his timing, all of it seems off.
Nov. 2: Colts lose to Panthers. Luck throws three interceptions and fumbles once. Doyel writes: "Luck couldn’t throw the ball from here to there without it being grabbed first by the other team."

Luck won't answer @GreggDoyelStar question about broken ribs. No one's denied it to this point.
Nov. 9: Luck wakes up and notices blood in his urine. Safety Mike Adams sees Luck in the training room, sees a black-and-blue bruise the size of a basketball. “You OK?” Adams asks. "Yeah,” Luck replies.
Nov. 10: Not OK. The Colts learn Luck has a lacerated kidney and partial tear of an abdominal muscle. Such kidney damage is usually seen in a motor vehicle accident, a doctor notes. Luck will be out two to six weeks, after already missing two games with the arm injury. What no one knows at the time: He won't take another snap the rest of the year.
Nov. 11: The prescription is rest. The kidney needs time to heal. Luck heads to West Virginia during the Colts’ bye week, where his parents still own a home. He sleeps 12 hours a day and plays video games with his brother.
Dec. 31: In what feels like piling on, fans learn for the first time that Luck's early-season injury to his right arm is worse than earlier thought. It's announced that Luck will miss his ninth game of the season, seventh due to the lacerated kidney. Fans also find out that Luck sustained torn cartilage on two ribs and is still coping with significant pain after returning to the lineup for four games in late October and early November. The injury likely affected Luck's performance after he returned from a two-game absence that the Colts attributed to a shoulder injury. Luck, according to an NFL source, needed pain-killing injections to play and was quite limited by the injury.
2017
Fans learn that Luck had surgery in mid-January to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder dating back to the third game of the 2015 season. Experts on the procedure predict a six-to-nine-month recovery, which could place him back in the fold just as training camp begins July 30. Questioned by reporters, Irsay strongly hints that Luck aggravated the shoulder injury when he tried, in vain, to stop the Broncos’ Aqib Talib on an interception return in a 2016 Week 2 loss.

Finally, Doyel writes, there's an explanation for Luck's lackluster play:


(For months) the Colts have told you the discouraging answer, the wrong answer, the deceitful answer: Nothing’s wrong with Andrew Luck.

Something happened, even as the Colts assured us nothing had happened. Luck appeared on the injury report this season, but coach Chuck Pagano — and Luck — dismissed that as maintenance. They made it sound like Luck was a young pitcher on pitch count: no need to throw too many fastballs during practice.

"The kid’s fine," Pagano told us. "Leave him alone."

Did you buy it? Not me, and not lots of us. Something has been wrong with Luck since the 2015 season began. ...

The Colts misled us for the entire 2016 season about Luck’s shoulder. Irsay just admitted it.
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2006
9,218
Duval
To save time I'll go ahead and do the whole next page:

Isn't that against the spirit and letter of the injury list rules? Wasn't this already looked into?



How many first rounders would NE lose if this happened around a Brady injury?



Nothing will happen about this. Indy doesn't win enough to draw the ire of Park Ave.



For the love of all things holy and good can we have at least one thread that isn't corrupted by DFG??? Patriot fans are such martyrs!


Well it's a Pats board, soooo....


Guys, can we just keep this thread about Indy without dragging Pats angst into it? Thanks.

Agreed.



So anyway, it seems like there's a legitimate chance Luck may not be ready to start the season. How does this affect the division race?
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
31,398
To save time I'll go ahead and do the whole next page:

Isn't that against the spirit and letter of the injury list rules? Wasn't this already looked into?



How many first rounders would NE lose if this happened around a Brady injury?



Nothing will happen about this. Indy doesn't win enough to draw the ire of Park Ave.



For the love of all things holy and good can we have at least one thread that isn't corrupted by DFG??? Patriot fans are such martyrs!


Well it's a Pats board, soooo....


Guys, can we just keep this thread about Indy without dragging Pats angst into it? Thanks.

Agreed.



So anyway, it seems like there's a legitimate chance Luck may not be ready to start the season. How does this affect the division race?

That needs to be posted on the Sons of Elizabeth Kubler Ross.
 

Granite Sox

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2003
5,136
The Granite State
Colts fans perennially overrate the potential of the team, but there's a lot of "uh oh" going around so far in training camp. Luck is out, best OL (Kelly) just went out with foot surgery, recent top draft picks sidelined with nagging injuries. Both lines are allegedly terrible again. The bottom may fall out fast.

Grigson and the Karma Train have set this franchise back significantly.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,887
Hingham, MA
Colts fans perennially overrate the potential of the team, but there's a lot of "uh oh" going around so far in training camp. Luck is out, best OL (Kelly) just went out with foot surgery, recent top draft picks sidelined with nagging injuries. Both lines are allegedly terrible again. The bottom may fall out fast.

Grigson and the Karma Train have set this franchise back significantly.
Bingo
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,887
Hingham, MA
The Colts are home underdogs to a team that is 0-2, went 1-15 last year, and overall has lost 35 of its last 39 games. BANNER THAT SHIT
 

TomTerrific

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,729
Wayland, MA
In Maui right now with the wife, was just hanging by the pool late in the afternoon. The live music contingent arrives, sets up, looks around and notices the entire place is empty except for my wife and I, who are now packing up to leave. The singer flips on the mike and says, "Welcome to the annual meeting of the Indianapolis Colts fan club!"
 
Last edited:

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
23,175
Pittsburgh, PA
Porting from the Week 7 gamethread:

Man, if only someone who doesn't even know that much about football had been saying Luck sucks for years.
Not sure who Marci is slamming here, but it's worth discussing how good Luck is and how good he could be, especially since Brissett has shown so much so quickly. Here's how Luck has looked to FootballOutsiders, at the very least...

Year: Passing DYAR (rank), Rushing DYAR (rank), DVOA (rank)
2016: 719 (#11), 93 (#3), +7.3% (#13)
2015: -126 (#33), 59 (#11), -17.5% (#32) -- played 7 games, 4 of them probably injured; ranks are out of 37 qualifiers
2014: 879 (#10), 40 (#11), +9.2% (#11)
2013: 650 (#14), 151 (#1), +4.6% (#16)
2012: 257 (#19), 123 (#3), -5.1% (#19) -- just edging out Andy Dalton at #20 in the first and third categories

Luck's 2014 was supposedly his breakout year, with 40 TDs and a 96.5 passer rating, but by FO's metrics his stats never crossed into truly elite-level play. Despite being one of the best running QBs in the league, at least 2012-2014, that is still just too small a fraction of a QB's value to make a fundamental difference. His multiple injuries in 2015, and now in 2017, may have put serious question marks behind his continuing value, not least because of the impact to his mobility.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,887
Hingham, MA
What is it that Brissett has shown? He has 3 TD against 3 picks in 6 starts. Sub 60% completions. 7.01 YPA. 79.8 passer rating. He has run the ball ok I guess. But he has played in 6 games, 3 of which are blowout losses, the other 3 close games against awful teams.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,822
Slamming? No, I was talking about myself - I don't know a whole lot about football, but I've been saying for years around here that Luck isn't all that.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Luck has been a very good quarterback when healthy. His last two full seasons were ranked 5th and 10th in ANY/A. His organization has been a disgrace to team building, but he's taken them to the playoffs three times. His career trajectory has leveled off, he's not that young anymore, his reputation might be a bit ahead of his performance, but he's a good enough quarterback that he makes all but the very worst teams a playoff contender. Put Andrew Luck in Denver and they're one of the Super Bowl favorites.

Brissett was a nice trade for the Colts given cost. He has been fine on the grading curves of "not being Scott Tolzein" and "he's a 2nd year player that we threw into the job on a bad team with no offseason prep". He hasnt been Savage, Kizer, or Flacco level terrible out there. But, objectively speaking, he's a pretty bad starting quarterback right now. The idea of replacing Luck with Brissett or that this is a potential "Brady for Bledsoe' type situation is borderline insane. Luck is a guy who has been a very good quarterback and who makes a team with the right supporting cast a Super Bowl contender immediately when healthy. Brissett is a guy who has shown enough that we can't definitively rule out will become a competent NFL quarterback.. Brissett had absolutely no idea yesterday against the Jags. Yes, Jacksonville is an excellent defense, yes, the Colts have a bad offensive line, but Brissett just had no idea back there, held the ball for sack after sack. That's not a hanging offense given where he is in his development or anything, but that's not a guy you move on from Andrew Luck for.

EDIT: and yeah, everyone is tradeable at a price, etc, etc, but Colts would probably have to be offered like five first round picks to listen so its not going to happen.

Removed Flacco talk, didnt realize this was the Colts thread.
 
Last edited:

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Slamming? No, I was talking about myself - I don't know a whole lot about football, but I've been saying for years around here that Luck isn't all that.
Stick to testicles and spiders.

In some alternate universe where Pagano chose to retire and Arians got the HC & GM job, Luck is the clear cut #1 QB in the league who keeps losing to Belichick/Brady in the AFCCG.

Ryan Grigson is why football fans can't have nice things.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
16,136
The idea of replacing Luck with Brissett or that this is a potential "Brady for Bledsoe' type situation is borderline insane. Luck is a guy who has been a very good quarterback and who makes a team with the right supporting cast a Super Bowl contender immediately when healthy. Brissett is a guy who has shown enough that we can't definitively rule out will become a competent NFL quarterback.. Brissett had absolutely no idea yesterday against the Jags. Yes, Jacksonville is an excellent defense, yes, the Colts have a bad offensive line, but Brissett just had no idea back there, held the ball for sack after sack. That's not a hanging offense given where he is in his development or anything, but that's not a guy you move on from Andrew Luck for.
I agree with you that this is not a Bledsoe:Brady situation because Brissett is not Brady. But you agree that Luck is basically Bledsoe, correct?
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Luck is better than Bledsoe, at least he was the last time he played. Particularly Bledsoe circa 2001.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
16,136
Luck is better than Bledsoe. Particularly Bledsoe circa 2001.
2001 Bledsoe was indeed slipping, but of course we have no idea how good Luck is now. At their peaks Luck (post 2014) and Bledsoe (post 1996) were each considered the second most valuable quarterback behind the Packers QB.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Their career values were closer than I would have thought, but the trends were different. ANY/A+ for Bledsoe’s three seasons before 2001 was 109, 99, 95 and had declined for three straight seasons. Lucks last three healthy seasons were 100, 116, 109. There was at least one obvious reason for Bledsoe’s decline. By 2001 Bledsoe was becoming a statue and his sack rate was spiking accordingly.

Of course Luck’s value is health dependent going forward, but there’s not the same declining trend so the decision is different IMO. Luck is still playing at a high level, Bledsoe wasn’t.

I also don’t think either was ever, objectively, he second best quarterback in the league. Subjectively id have a hard time arguing that Luck was more valuable than Tom Brady.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
16,136
Their career values were closer than I would have thought, but the trends were different. ANY/A+ for Bledsoe’s three seasons before 2001 was 109, 99, 95 and had declined for three straight seasons. Lucks last three healthy seasons were 100, 116, 109. There was at least one obvious reason for Bledsoe’s decline. By 2001 Bledsoe was becoming a statue and his sack rate was spiking accordingly.

Of course Luck’s value is health dependent going forward, but there’s not the same declining trend so the decision is different IMO. Luck is still playing at a high level, Bledsoe wasn’t.

I also don’t think either was ever, objectively, he second best quarterback in the league. Subjectively id have a hard time arguing that Luck was more valuable than Tom Brady.
Oh I agree neither was ever the second best (although Luck was ranked second by several people at one point), but I think they each would have been second at some point along the way on a trade value ranking.
 

E5 Yaz

polka king
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
91,827
Oregon
Suck for Luck
Suck with Luck
Suck without Luck
Suck for Luck's Supporting Cast
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
14,366
Boulder, CO
People always ask me if I root for Andrew Luck just because he went to Stanford. The answer is fuck no. I mean, I hope he's happy and healthy and that every terrible thing befalls him on the football field, at least until he leaves that cesspool of a franchise. Christ, I have classmates (that I liked) who went to Goldman Sachs after leaving Stanford, I sure as fuck don't root for Goldman Sachs. Once you leave the Farm, you're on your own.
 

slowstrung

New Member
Jul 18, 2005
46
Alexandria, VA
People always ask me if I root for Andrew Luck just because he went to Stanford. The answer is fuck no. I mean, I hope he's happy and healthy and that every terrible thing befalls him on the football field, at least until he leaves that cesspool of a franchise. Christ, I have classmates (that I liked) who went to Goldman Sachs after leaving Stanford, I sure as fuck don't root for Goldman Sachs. Once you leave the Farm, you're on your own.
Can we still root for Jacoby to have some success there, in the hope that it leads to a solid NFL career elsewhere?