2017 Butler Watch: Love Me Tender

tims4wins

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Except Butler isn't likely to sign the tender until either
1) The Pats agree to trade him
2) Deadline to sign before offer can be reduced. And even then it's possible he may not sign, wanting to try to force Patriots hand.

I might push it but not sure the Patriots feel it would be worth it.



On a side note, do people really think Belichick offered the 32 for Cooks as a solid to his buddy? He didn't because he thought that Cooks was worth it and he was unlikely to get him cheaper.
Did any team offer more? Very doubtful, just like every other trade the high bidder makes the deal.
If it gets to #2, then he only makes like $600K again instead of $3.9M. Seems unlikely.

I agree with regard to the Cooks trade. And I highly doubt that trade was made with the idea that a potential Butler trade would offset some of that trade value. It is just not how BB operates. They won't take some kind of discount on the trade back because they feel like they got a steal for Cooks.
 

rodderick

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You are assuming no improvement from the likes of Rowe and Cyrus Jones
Correct, I'm not assuming anything. They basically had Butler/Ryan/Rowe down the stretch last season. If you believe Gilmore is at Butler's level (debatable, but they aren't far apart), you're asking Jones to make a very significant jump into major contributor, which, while possible, I have little confidence will happen based on what I saw from him defensively last year. Yes, they could bring in a free agent, but still, odds are you'll have a worse cornerback group than you had in 2016. I'm not saying that's a certainty, but that's the most likely scenario to me right now.

This team is still very good, my point is merely that Cooks aside, most of the money they spent was either bringing back key players or directly replacing guys they lost. I don't see improvement in the overall talent level of the defense right now, which of course could and probably will change with the emergence of some young players on that side of the ball. It's just that there's all this fanfarre about the Patriots having a crazy offseason, and I look at the roster and feel it's at best comparable to what they already had, which, considering they just won the Super Bowl with the second best player on the team being injured, is more than fine. Just wanted to point out the cognitive dissonance I've been having over the media splurging at all their moves.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Well, 140k followers can't be wrong:

@PardonMyTake
BREAKING: Sources are telling PMT that NE's Malcolm Butler will be traded to the Saints in exchange for the 32nd overall pick #MustCreditPMT
 

tims4wins

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Well if Butler is gone, then they will have a first round pick. Cooks upgrades the offense. On D, young guys will improve (hopefully Flowers is included in this category), and IMO the Sheard/Nink/Long troika was pretty bleh last year, I think Kony Ealy is a potential upgrade there.

Also, given the number of very talented free agents they had this year, to even be in a position where the roster is comparable to 2016 on March 16 is pretty phenomenal.
 

lexrageorge

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I still prefer Butler is extended but think this happens for 42 and a 4th next year.
I just don't see why the Pats need to agree such a low return for Butler. There's really no advantage to doing so.

As for a trade, the way it would work is as follows:

a.) Butler and the Saints come to agreement on a post-trade extension.

b.) The Pats and the Saints agree to a trade of Butler.

c.) Butler signs the tender after the Pats promise to complete the trade.

Needs to happen in that order. And all parties have to hope that noone gets cold feet and tries to back out part way through.
 

jimbobim

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and as this inches toward done useful backup options Claiborne and Carr snapped up...
 

amfox1

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I agree with those who have posited that Belichick and Payton have already worked out the parameters of a Butler trade. I assume it is either pick #32 (590) or picks #43 (470) and #103 (88).
The PMT report of Butler-for-#32 makes sense. Let's see if it turns out to be true.
 

DeadlySplitter

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it's still hard to tell whether it's Butler who is misguided or this rookie agent.

Bill has little tolerance for any contract shit, even for a homegrown product like Butler. I think as soon as Butler's party tried to ask for UFA money, Bill moved onto the second-best use of his asset, namely a trade for the last year of control.
 

dcmissle

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Unfortunate that it came to this, but I'll take the 32 at this point and move on.
 

Toe Nash

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This team is still very good, my point is merely that Cooks aside, most of the money they spent was either bringing back key players or directly replacing guys they lost. I don't see improvement in the overall talent level of the defense right now, which of course could and probably will change with the emergence of some young players on that side of the ball. It's just that there's all this fanfarre about the Patriots having a crazy offseason, and I look at the roster and feel it's at best comparable to what they already had, which, considering they just won the Super Bowl with the second best player on the team being injured, is more than fine. Just wanted to point out the cognitive dissonance I've been having over the media splurging at all their moves.
1. Saying "Cooks aside" is fairly ridiculous. Cooks is close to a top 10 NFL WR and is 23 years old. It's a huge add.
2. "Most of the money they spent was bringing back key players" Yes that is what you have to do in the NFL when your guys' rookie deals run out. That's why it's so hard to maintain success over a long period -- guys get expensive.
3. They still have money left and it's very early in FA. There is plenty of time to add guys who can help.

The fact that it's march 16 and they could go DO NOTHING and go into next season expecting to be about as good on the whole as the team that won 17 games last year, even though two of their best defensive players were FAs is a pretty damn good offseason.
 

dbn

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Maybe we wait until we get details or even, you know, to find out if this is confirmed, before we pass judgment?
 
Jun 9, 2011
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You guys are aware that the PMT tweet is a joke right? Its a running joke they have that they are always trying to break news. They have segments during their interviews called "breaking news" where they try to dupe the interview subject into saying something controversial and breaking the "news" of what they said. It's not a report, its a shot in the dark and if it turns out being right, they will be able to add that to their running joke of being credible journalists. They are a parody... it's not a report...
 

SeoulSoxFan

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You guys are aware that the PMT tweet is a joke right? Its a running joke they have that they are always trying to break news. They have segments during their interviews called "breaking news" where they try to dupe the interview subject into saying something controversial and breaking the "news" of what they said. It's not a report, its a shot in the dark and if it turns out being right, they will be able to add that to their running joke of being credible journalists. They are a parody... it's not a report...
No, and thanks for the info. Here's a better tweet:

@RapSheet
#Patriots CB Malcolm Butler’s visit to #Saints ended. Source close to him said it went well. No deal yet. The sides motivated to get it done
 

Stitch01

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I just don't see why the Pats need to agree such a low return for Butler. There's really no advantage to doing so.

As for a trade, the way it would work is as follows:

a.) Butler and the Saints come to agreement on a post-trade extension.

b.) The Pats and the Saints agree to a trade of Butler.

c.) Butler signs the tender after the Pats promise to complete the trade.

Needs to happen in that order. And all parties have to hope that noone gets cold feet and tries to back out part way through.
They dont need to do anything, but seems pretty likely that Butler wants out and the Pats want to accomodate him based on the smoke around this.

#32 back would be nice. Think its a bit of an overpay for Cooks, but current roster+32+Jimmy return is pretty good. Still cap room available too
 
Jun 9, 2011
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real or not, I am merely stating that if they trade for 32 I'd be disappointed. 11 on the other hand...
Totally agree and I am not sure why the media and most posters here seem to think its a given that the Pats should be motivated to accept less than what they are entitled to. They could very well be right, but if I'm the Pats I would play it straight up. If Malcolm has a deal he likes with the Saints, then tell him he has the right to sign it. If he signs it and its a deal Bill likes, then match. If not, let him walk for #11 per the CBA.

It just seems that there is a sentiment out there that the Pats owe Malcolm or the Saints or both a favor, and I'm just not seeing it. The Saints want the player, Malcolm apparently wants to go there, and the Pats own his rights for another year with an option to tag him next year. Seems to me that is a position of strength, not one where the Pats need to be bending over backwards to make happen for the player and another team. Put another way, I'd rather play out next year with Butler and potentially lose him next year, while picking up a comp pick, than shipping him out for anything less than full freight.
 

Stitch01

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Im not inclined to second guess BB on his evaluation of what Butler is worth to the team here next year if he is unhappy with his contract situation. His hit rate on these kind of decisions is super high.
 

BigJimEd

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Totally agree and I am not sure why the media and most posters here seem to think its a given that the Pats should be motivated to accept less than what they are entitled to
They aren't entitled to anything.
It's what both sides determine is fair. I'd prefer Butler over the 32nd pick. Not sure the Patriots see it the same way though. Looks like we will find out.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Totally agree and I am not sure why the media and most posters here seem to think its a given that the Pats should be motivated to accept less than what they are entitled to

[snip]

than shipping him out for anything less than full freight.
The problem is "entitled to" and "full freight." The only thing they are entitled to is Malcom as an RFA, which could mean playing at $3.91m, could mean holding out, or could mean losing to free agency. What they are entitled to with the Saints would be 11. But if they don't trade him to NOS, then what they are entitled to changes if he has another suitor (for example, the Steelers). If the Steelers wanted to make a run at him, the Patriots would only be entitled to pick 30. If Malcom decides to hold out, then all they are entitled to is six weeks of Malcom Butler with a right to franchise him.

The Patriots aren't doing anyone a favor here. If they trade him, it will be because Bill has decided that whatever they get back -- be it 32 or something else -- is worth more than having RFA Malcom Butler. I get that we all think 32 is not a good enough return, but if the choice is between (A) RFA Malcom Butler and (B) pick 32, then that's the choice the Patriots have to make. If 11 isn't on the table, it doesn't mean they still don't value B more than A. Maybe they do.

Maybe they value 32 and having Malcom in the NFC higher than they value 30 plus Malcom on an AFC Championship contender.
 

OurF'ingCity

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If Malcom decides to hold out, then all they are entitled to is six weeks of Malcom Butler with a right to franchise him.
This is the key point. Those arguing for keeping Butler unless and until he signs an offer sheet or the tender are assuming (a) Butler does not hold out for some portion of the season and (b) the contract situation does not negatively affect his play and/or the team as a whole. If either of those things occurs (and BB clearly thinks there is a good chance they do) then Butler's value declines, perhaps significantly.

While it's true that holding out would also hurt Butler, he and his agent have apparently indicated they want to play hardball in negotiations so they may still view holding out as worth it if it means securing a longer-term deal going forward.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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26 year old Gilmore and 24 year old Rowe are a hell of a tandem. Both unbelievably gifted athletes. Looking back at their combine results is pants tent inducing. That leaves Coleman, and the Joneses as 3-5 corners. Plenty of time to add to that group. In a deep corner draft I'm confident they can find an adequate addition. I'm frustrated as a fan to see what Butler is going through. I LOVE this kid. Hell, I drafted him in the RFP. He's absolutely played his ass off at an elite level and has been a revelation as an undrafted kid from West Alabama. I saw it in his first preseason. I really want him to stay, but at this point the writing is on the wall...

I mean honestly, is Rowe going to play the slot? Probably not. Is Butler? Maybe? Likely where he'd play if he doesn't go to NO.
 

mauf

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In a vacuum, there's no way you'd make a trade for #32 when you could get #11. There must be more to the story -- most likely, either the Saints won't make an offer that could cost them their 1st rounder, or BB is concerned that Butler won't be a happy camper if he stays without a long-term deal, or both. My money is on both.

Of course, it's still possible that this is nothing but smoke.
 

mauf

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Also, I haven't read all 480 posts in the thread, but has anyone mentioned the potential tie between this situation and Jimmy G's? If BB plans to tag-and-trade JG next offseason, then he can only control Butler for one more year, not two. That makes the stand-pat option (letting Butler play out his contract) considerably less attractive.
 

E5 Yaz

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In a vacuum, there's no way you'd make a trade for #32 when you could get #11. There must be more to the story -- most likely, either the Saints won't make an offer that could cost them their 1st rounder, or BB is concerned that Butler won't be a happy camper if he stays without a long-term deal, or both. My money is on both.

Of course, it's still possible that this is nothing but smoke.
As has been pointed out multiple times, why would they? Why would you trade a premium draft pick -- and sign Butler to a long-term deal -- when you can just sit back and let him play another season and get him as a UFA?
 

shoosh77

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I thinking 32 plus something next year to close the gap a little from 11, as well as not bring they eye of Sauron on why one pick flipped back and forth. Call it a 2017 3rd or 4th.
 

E5 Yaz

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I thinking 32 plus something next year to close the gap a little from 11, as well as not bring they eye of Sauron on why one pick flipped back and forth. Call it a 2017 3rd or 4th.
I'm just paranoid enough to agree with this.
 

Mystic Merlin

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As has been pointed out multiple times, why would they? Why would you trade a premium draft pick -- and sign Butler to a long-term deal -- when you can just sit back and let him play another season and get him as a UFA?
Because there very well may not be a next year for Saints' leadership. Loomis - who incredibly still has a job despite fucking the cap for years and not putting a good team around a HOF QB consistently - and Payton might very well get shitcanned if they have another disappointing year weighed down by a shitty defense.
 

ragnarok725

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Here's the thing I don't understand. Whatever deal NO comes to with Butler, they have to be offering it knowing that it's only part of the cost of acquiring him. They're likely to also have to give up the #32 pick. There's no way they offer him a UFA-sized contract, and also give up #32. Or even #42. They're going to offer him a big, long-term deal, but at a significant discount knowing what they'll have to give up to sign him.

How is that going to be any different from where talks about an extension must be at with the Patriots? Why would the Saints offer materially more?
 

Ale Xander

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Considering how high the Saints pick is and Butler's RFA status and the possibility (however wrong) that he's a "product of the system" I have never understood why they were/are so high on Butler? Why not just sign Gilmore in the beginning and rework their signed guys to get under the cap?

Did the Pats just beat them to the punch or is their cap that unworkable and they think they can sign Butler cheap (money-wise)?
If the latter why not just go after Claiborne and hopes he regains his draft hype/stock?LSU is even closer to NO than West Bama
 

RedOctober3829

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Considering how high the Saints pick is and Butler's RFA status and the possibility (however wrong) that he's a "product of the system" I have never understood why they were/are so high on Butler? Why not just sign Gilmore in the beginning and rework their signed guys to get under the cap?

Did the Pats just beat them to the punch or is their cap that unworkable and they think they can sign Butler cheap (money-wise)?
If the latter why not just go after Claiborne and hopes he regains his draft hope? LSU is even closer to NO than West Bama
Claiborne signed with the Jets today.
 

Sportsbstn

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Here's the thing I don't understand. Whatever deal NO comes to with Butler, they have to be offering it knowing that it's only part of the cost of acquiring him. They're likely to also have to give up the #32 pick. There's no way they offer him a UFA-sized contract, and also give up #32. Or even #42. They're going to offer him a big, long-term deal, but at a significant discount knowing what they'll have to give up to sign him.

How is that going to be any different from where talks about an extension must be at with the Patriots? Why would the Saints offer materially more?
We don't know where talks with the patriots are, so it's tough to say there. However, it's not as if the Saints are some sort of great destination at this point for too free agents, so New Orleans would likely have to overbid next year against better teams with as much cap space. This is a team that has jettisoned its 2 best ball catchers in the last 3 years.

If we roll to next year and Butler is a UFA, that chance New Orleans has to bring him in isn't great without a significant overpay. The 32 pick at least is the cost of business. The contract while maybe not at UFA money will be nowhere near a significant discount, because they have no shot of filling their biggest need. The Saints are getting worse, not better. They need talent pronto
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Here's the thing I don't understand. Whatever deal NO comes to with Butler, they have to be offering it knowing that it's only part of the cost of acquiring him. They're likely to also have to give up the #32 pick. There's no way they offer him a UFA-sized contract, and also give up #32. Or even #42. They're going to offer him a big, long-term deal, but at a significant discount knowing what they'll have to give up to sign him.

How is that going to be any different from where talks about an extension must be at with the Patriots? Why would the Saints offer materially more?
Because teams and more specifically individuals don't value players in an absolute sense?

It's subjective, which is kind of how the whole FA and trade system works. The Saints have a far bigger need on defense, especially at CB. The Pats without Butler still probably have a top half defense. Add in that they have three years of evaluation of him on a daily basis, they've dealt with his agent for longer and they okay a different system...of course their offers would be different. These things aren't static.

Above and beyond that, as someone noted, Loomis and Payton might be feeling be heat and are willing to overpay.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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As far as the Saints and free agents go, not sure how many CB's want to go against Jones, Evans and Benjamin twice a year.
 

Super Nomario

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Doug Kyed‏Verified account @DougKyed 3m3 minutes ago
They would take less than No. 11 if they determine it's worth more than one season of Butler + a 2019 third-round comp pick.
This is basically the Chandler Jones situation all over again. They have more leverage here because of the RFA status, but it comes down to one year of a very good player and an excellent price who may be unhappy, or the draft pick. They got a late 2 for Jones; getting a late 1 for Butler would seem reasonable in that light.

Also, I haven't read all 480 posts in the thread, but has anyone mentioned the potential tie between this situation and Jimmy G's? If BB plans to tag-and-trade JG next offseason, then he can only control Butler for one more year, not two. That makes the stand-pat option (letting Butler play out his contract) considerably less attractive.
That's a great point.

EDIT:
Also, in a league that puts a premium on parity, the RFA process strangely hurts bad teams more than good ones. Why should signing Butler cost New Orleans pick 11 while it would cost Atlanta only pick 31? They should top-half protect it like baseball does or something.
 

Reverend

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It's just that there's all this fanfarre about the Patriots having a crazy offseason, and I look at the roster and feel it's at best comparable to what they already had, which, considering they just won the Super Bowl with the second best player on the team being injured, is more than fine. Just wanted to point out the cognitive dissonance I've been having over the media splurging at all their moves.
Being psyched about holding serve after a Super Bowl championship implies cognitive dissonance to be resolved?

Who hurt you?

I'm entitled to a pony, a flying car ... and an order of fries
What kind of fries?
 

j-man

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if i was denver GM i wouild give u 20 and Tailb provied u sign butler to his RFA and then after 2017 i wouild give butler 5y/65 mil Tailb could be a plob if Denver starts losing a lot Tailb has allready given denver a lot has stayed on the field and been a great teammate
 

Stitch01

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Correct, I'm not assuming anything. They basically had Butler/Ryan/Rowe down the stretch last season. If you believe Gilmore is at Butler's level (debatable, but they aren't far apart), you're asking Jones to make a very significant jump into major contributor, which, while possible, I have little confidence will happen based on what I saw from him defensively last year. Yes, they could bring in a free agent, but still, odds are you'll have a worse cornerback group than you had in 2016. I'm not saying that's a certainty, but that's the most likely scenario to me right now.

This team is still very good, my point is merely that Cooks aside, most of the money they spent was either bringing back key players or directly replacing guys they lost. I don't see improvement in the overall talent level of the defense right now, which of course could and probably will change with the emergence of some young players on that side of the ball. It's just that there's all this fanfarre about the Patriots having a crazy offseason, and I look at the roster and feel it's at best comparable to what they already had, which, considering they just won the Super Bowl with the second best player on the team being injured, is more than fine. Just wanted to point out the cognitive dissonance I've been having over the media splurging at all their moves.
Sort of an aside, but Pats were actually super healthy last year even accounting for Gronk's absence. They're pretty likely to have more injuries to overcome next year.

Also disagree about the roster assessment, particularly in the sense that there are still lots of time and resources to improve the roster before September and the roster is already at or pretty close to the same level it was at last year.
 

Stitch01

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if i was denver GM i wouild give u 20 and Tailb provied u sign butler to his RFA and then after 2017 i wouild give butler 5y/65 mil Tailb could be a plob if Denver starts losing a lot Tailb has allready given denver a lot has stayed on the field and been a great teammate
I dont think the mechanics would work, giving up a 1st without extending now is pretty risky and Pats probably wouldnt take Talib's $11MM salary this year.
 

dcmissle

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Also, I haven't read all 480 posts in the thread, but has anyone mentioned the potential tie between this situation and Jimmy G's? If BB plans to tag-and-trade JG next offseason, then he can only control Butler for one more year, not two. That makes the stand-pat option (letting Butler play out his contract) considerably less attractive.
Or, for that matter, tag-and-keep:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/03/16/belief-persists-that-patriots-plan-to-keep-garoppolo-beyond-2017/
 

Stitch01

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If that's the plan (and Im still skeptical), then we are probably wrong and they are probably moving on from Brady next offseason. Otherwise the cap number for QBs next year is going to be like $42mm.

FWIW, Brady explicitly said on the Peter King podcast post Super Bowl "Next year is definitely not my last season, that's for sure". Wording might be slightly off, but it was entirely unambiguous.