I have a long bus ride before me today, so I thought I would type out my belated retrospective on the 2017-18 season. While any season that includes multiple wins over top-5 opponents, a run to the Big East final, and a tournament appearance should be considered largely successful, to sum it up in a few words, this team... left something to be desired.
It might seem like 20/20 hindsight, but I wrote something to the effect at the time: the 2nd game loss to Minnesota was fateful. Up 5 early in the second half, Cartwright misses a transition layup, and it all goes to hell from there. While Cartwright might be single-handedly responsible for this team even making the tournament (i.e., Belmont buzzer beater, incredible performances in the BE tournament) his unevenness — partially due to injury — was emblematic of the whole team’s struggles for all of Nov through Jan. Something was just a bit off until very late in the season.
Lost to history, but they had a chance to cut URI’s lead to 1 late in that game, but missed the front end of a one-and-one (8pts from Cartwright & Lindsey combined); up 5 on the road at UMass, but then missed 11 straight shots (!) to surrender the lead and incur an awful road loss; had Marquette buried (~95% win prob with 2min to play) without Bullock, but squandered the lead. That’s to say nothing of the dodged bullets against Belmont, Brown & Stony Brook. Every season has a gut punch loss or two and maybe a couple of WTF games, but this team felt downright bipolar.
The careers of Cartwright, Lindsey and Bullock are ones to be celebrated. There is of course a lot of “what if,” imagining if Bentil or Chukwu stayed longer, or if Holt was healthy this year. But those kids were central to the change in culture and expectations that we saw these last four years. They also played their asses off, and when backs were against the wall these past two seasons, they ground out several improbable wins to punch their NCAA tournament tickets.
Now the page turns, and the question is whether the team takes a step back in 2018-19 before what should be a loaded 2019-20 team blossoms. Or do they have enough — can they keep enough of these guys in the fold, and can Emmitt Holt come back — to make a run at 6 tournament bids in a row? Assuming Holt gets back, a starting five of Ashton-Langford (PG), Jackson (G/F), Diallo (G/F), Holt (PF) & Watson (C) is long, athletic and above average defensively at four positions. What the group lacks is shooting, so enter Maliek White and two freshman who can, by all accounts, shoot the lights out (Duke & Reeves). We’ve also seen Drew Edwards thrive in big spots, both offensively and defensively.
It’s not who is coming back that concerns me — it’s who might not. With Holt, we simply don’t know. With Maliek White, who was recruited to be Cartwright’s successor at PG, is he happy sharing minutes in what’s now a really deep back-court? Kalif Young, who has played a ton of important minutes for a 3-star late signee, projects to play less behind Watson (arguably the highest ceiling player on the team), and we know Dajour Dickens will play some as a redshirt Freshman. You can only play one of those guys at a time, unless Watson develops a 3-point shot. Edwards’ situation might be complicated by his 2016-17 redshirt status, but the kid was part of the crunch time five in Kris Dunn’s last year and now has a very uncertain playing time outlook. These types of things have a way of working themselves out, but the concern is having quality depth to pair with your stars (Diallo & Watson now; MAL, Duke & Reeves possibly soon). The 2015-16 team led by Dunn & Bentil would have had a much different fate were it not for the utter lack of a bench. Keeping the current and less heralded group of rising Juniors in the fold is what I’ll be closely monitoring these next couple of months.