2016 Bullpen in-house options

The Gray Eagle

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The bullpen has been godawful this year, no question about it. More good arms will need to be brought in.
 
But there are some pieces already here who might be able to help next season, though almost every single one of them has potential issues and question marks.
 
Uehara: overall, pitched well until he broke his hand. He is old and coming back from an injury, so those are real concerns. He has a contract for next year, and will most likely start the season as the closer, depending who the team brings in from the outside.
 
Tazawa: Has been a very solid setup man for years, but was terrible in the second half this year and then shut down. Hopefully the suckage was just temporary due to overuse, and he will bounce back strong next year, but there are concerns about him too. Have all the pitches over the years eroded his effectiveness?
 
Barnes: After pitching poorly in relief, then converting to starter in the minors and starting a couple of games in the majors, then going back down to AAA, Barnes came back up the majors in September as a reliever. Since he came back, he's pitched 7 straight scoreless appearances: 8 innings, 6 K and 1 BB.
 
Has he figured things out, or is it just a small-sample September blip? In yesterday's Sox notebook, Julian Benbow wrote:
"The clearest reason for his string of six straight scoreless appearances has been the way he’s overmatched hitters on the first pitch.
“I think the bottom line is Strike 1 with Matt Barnes,” Lovullo said. “If he gets a strike on you, with that velocity and at that angle, it can be very challenging.
Barnes has thrown first-pitch strikes to 16 of the 26 batters he’s faced. He’s shaken off the common issues that plagued him in his previous major league stints this season, giving up just one walk while striking out six in seven innings of work.
“He’s throwing downhill fastballs, leveraging the ball, hitting the zone,” Lovullo said."
 
Robbie Ross: Anointed The Closer in September after pretty much everyone else had a shot, he's done okay. The 26-year-old lefty has 6 saves so far.
For the season, he's thrown 59.2 innings, 53 K to 20 walks. After a rough start to the year, in his last 42.2 IP, he has been good, allowing 16 ER, with 41 Ks to 14 walks.
Per Sox Prospects, he's got an option left, but he should have a role in the big league bullpen next year anyway. He's not a guy you'd want as a closer ideally, but as a 7th inning lefty who can pitch an inning or two, he should be solid.
 
Noe Ramirez: "No Way" has been a solid minor league reliever for a few years now. He turns 26 in December. Has options remaining.
From yesterday's Sox Notebook: "The way Noe Ramirez has handled some of the AL’s most imposing sluggers — from Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout to Manny Machado and Evan Longoria — Lovullo said he can see a role for the 25-year-old righthander in the majors.
“He is very tough, especially tough on righthanded hitters, and you can see he’s been getting that workload against some pretty impressive righthanded hitters and he’s more than held his own,” Lovullo said. “That’s not to say he can’t go up there and throw pitches to lefthanded hitters as well. So we kind of fine-focused his role and he’s done a great job with that.”
 
His first three major league appearances did not go well, all back in July. He allowed 9 runs in 5 innings in those three appearances, but since coming back to the majors in September, he's thrown 8 IP over 13 appearances, with 11 Ks and 3 walks.
 
Layne: the LOOGY. For his career, he has thrown 90.2 innings in the majors, with a 3.08 ERA. he has held lefties to a .454 OPS in his career, but righties have hit 310/404/479 against him. He can be quite solid as a lefty-only guy, but shouldn't be facing many righties. This year he has faced 101 righties and 100 lefties, a ratio that does not put him in a position to succeed. Could make a good L-R tandem with Noe Ramirez. 
 
Hill: The ultimate out of nowhere September Surprise. Has moved from the Independent League to setting 3-start records in the majors. Will be a free agent after the season, so there is a question if he will even be back. Has showed great stuff in his 23 innings, but remains old and injury prone. Will some other team offer him a better chance to start, and/or more money? It would be great if the Sox could keep him, as when he is healthy, he can look unhittable. 
 
Wright: He was pitching well as a starter (last 3 starts: 20 IP, 21 K, 9 BB, 5 ER.) Then he had the freak accident concussion and hasn't pitched since August 11. It's really too bad that we haven't been able to see more of him. He finishes this year with 72.2 IP and a 4.09 ERA. He makes the minimum and isn't even arb eligible till 2018, so hopefully he bounces back and becomes a solid long reliever who can eat multiple innings and give you a spot start when needed. Sox Prospects shows him with one option year left, but that doesn't seem to count this season, so he might well be out of options.
 
Hembree: 26 years old now. Always been a hard thrower, but struggled with command. So far this year, he's pitched 23 innings in Boston, 3.52 ERA, 13 K, 6 walks. In AAA, he pitched 31 innings with a 2.27 ERA, 32 K and 10 BB. Maybe he is figuring it out a bit too? He makes the minimum and won't be arb eligible till 2018. Sox Prospects shows him with an option left.
 
Aro: 24-year-old hasn't done well in his first 7.2 innings in the majors, but was solid in 74 innings in Portland and Pawtucket. Two options left. 
Sox Prospects writes "Future 6th/7th inning reliever profile. Throws strikes, workable fastball/slider combination. Needs to improve changeup, and consistency with slider. Lacks late inning ceiling, but high floor."
Should start next season in Pawtucket and ride the shuttle when needed.
 
Cook: has basically been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since he was acquired. Obviously still struggling with recovering from his arm surgery. He used to be really good, but is miles from that right now. Maybe he will pitch in winter ball and keep working on getting back to what he was. He apparently has an option year left?? so maybe he can pitch in Pawtucket next year.
 
Roman Mendez: Has only pitched one inning since being picked up, maybe he can be sent to Pawtucket if he is still with the club in the spring. He is out of options though.
 
Pat Light: power arm who moved up the system, but struggled once he got to AAA. Will be 25 next year, will be in the Pawsox bullpen to begin the year.
 
Escobar: 23-year-old lefty came on strong at the end of last year as a starter, then pitched as a reliever in winter ball, but then hurt his arm in spring training and had a bad year in the minors. Who knows if his arm is 100% again? Looked like he had some potential before the injury. Sox Prospects wrote (before his arm injury) "Middle to back-end starter potential. Three-pitch mix from the left side with average command and control of all pitches and ability to pitch to both sides of the plate. He has a floor of a solid left-handed bullpen arm, with a chance to stick as a starter if he continues to develop his secondary pitches and fastball command. Given his relative youth for his progression through the minors, he should continue to develop as a starter, but could fill a need out of the major league bullpen right now."
 
Ogando, Machi, Breslow: old, free agents, hopefully none will be back.
 
Brian Johnson, Owens, Joe Kelly: have been starters but could be considered for bullpen roles next year. Kelly says his arm doesn't work well with relief, and he pitched really well as a starter for a while after coming back from the minors, then got hurt, so his role for next year is just a huge question mark. Some people think Owens and/or Johnson would be most effective in the majors as relievers, but the Sox have kept them as starters so far. 
 
Excellent Reliever X who is yet to be acquired from outside the organization, plus Koji, Taz, Ross, Wright, Hill and Layne might not be a bad basis for a bullpen for next year, with Barnes, Ramirez, Hembree and company on the Pawtucket shuttle to add options.
 
Two excellent arms added to the mix would be great, but seems unlikely that the Sox will give up the resources to bring in two relievers for big roles for next year. There will of course be the usual minor league flyers added to the mix in the offseason. 
 
 
 

Drek717

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Assuming a 7 man 'pen I'd go with the following:
Uehara
Taz
Ross
Layne
Wright
 
And add two free agents with at least one looking like a worthwhile late innings option.  Rich Hill might be one of these guys if he'd take a comparatively small deal that includes an ML guarantee.  The rest go to AAA with Barnes and Escobar working as starters.  Noe Ramirez would be the first guy up, followed by Hembree, then moving Barnes back to the 'pen, then Aro if I had to set a call-up depth chart this early.
 

AB in DC

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The Gray Eagle said:
 
Uehara: overall, pitched well until he broke his hand. He is old and coming back from an injury, so those are real concerns. He has a contract for next year, and will most likely start the season as the closer, depending who the team brings in from the outside.
 
 
I really wonder about this.  Uehara will be 41 years old by Opening Day 2016.  Can you count on him being able to close in consecutive games if needed?  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember some concerns even back in 2013 that he'd need more off-days than most relievers.  By age 41 that has been taken as a given, no?
 
That means either (a) closer-by-committee, rotating Uehara and another player, or (b) transitioning Uehara to a different role altogether -- perhaps more of a 6th-7th inning guy who can pitch multiple innings but who will need a couple of days off in between appearances.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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AB in DC said:
 
I really wonder about this.  Uehara will be 41 years old by Opening Day 2016.  Can you count on him being able to close in consecutive games if needed?  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember some concerns even back in 2013 that he'd need more off-days than most relievers.  By age 41 that has been taken as a given, no?
 
That means either (a) closer-by-committee, rotating Uehara and another player, or (b) transitioning Uehara to a different role altogether -- perhaps more of a 6th-7th inning guy who can pitch multiple innings but who will need a couple of days off in between appearances.
 
I think there's a middle ground between "ride him into the ground" and "closer by committee." You can make him the closer, but load up a little extra on high-leverage depth so your manager always has options when it's not a good idea for him to pitch. Easier said than done, perhaps.
 

Rovin Romine

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I think we need a spreadsheet on options remaining.  It's probably going to factor heavily into the final decisions, barring trades.  
 
I expect a few trades.  The kicker is what to trade for though.  We could use an elite SP, an elite BP arm, an elite 1B/DH bat, a 4th OF, and/or a 3B upgrade.  Other than that we're pretty much all set with position players.  Let's assume we more or less stand pat with the position players.  
 
In terms of the rotation, if we don't trade anyone, the starting 5 will be Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Miley, Wright.   That'd put Rodriguez and Owens in the minors with Johnson/Workman/Barnes either with them or in the last couple of bullpen spots.  In reality though, we'll have Rodriguez and Owens in the rotation (somehow) and Wright traded or in the BP.  But I don't think it'll be easy to resolve those SP 7 pitchers by just putting a couple in the bullpen.    
 
So I think the bullpen is going to be an after thought (in a sense).  There could be some mandatory overflow into it, unless trades clear space.  And we'd only really trade for a SP or an elite reliever, which'd move the depth chart about.  
 
Regardless of how they do it, I think the Sox should ideally try to add two elite bullpen arms as Uehara/Tazawa insurance.  That gives you a top Four of X, Y, Uehara, Tarawa.   Of the remaining three spots, some could be filled by out of option/displaced starter guys (Wright/Kelly?).  The Sox can develop their younger guys at AAA and call up the current hot hands for the remaining two/three spots.  The problem is really what happens if the upper end of the bullpen goes down to age/injury/overworkedness.  They should try to stick with the 2013 model of redundant "closer types."  At least for the top few spots.  
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
I think there's a middle ground between "ride him into the ground" and "closer by committee." You can make him the closer, but load up a little extra on high-leverage depth so your manager always has options when it's not a good idea for him to pitch. Easier said than done, perhaps.
There's no evidence that Farrell could handle this approach. He seems to have only one rule in managing the bullpen, which is if they warm up they're coming in.
 

Al Zarilla

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Rovin Romine said:
I think we need a spreadsheet on options remaining.  It's probably going to factor heavily into the final decisions, barring trades.  
 
I expect a few trades.  The kicker is what to trade for though.  We could use an elite SP, an elite BP arm, an elite 1B/DH bat, a 4th OF, and/or a 3B upgrade.  Other than that we're pretty much all set with position players.  Let's assume we more or less stand pat with the position players.  
 
In terms of the rotation, if we don't trade anyone, the starting 5 will be Buchholz, Porcello, Kelly, Miley, Wright.   That'd put Rodriguez and Owens in the minors with Johnson/Workman/Barnes either with them or in the last couple of bullpen spots.  In reality though, we'll have Rodriguez and Owens in the rotation (somehow) and Wright traded or in the BP.  But I don't think it'll be easy to resolve those SP 7 pitchers by just putting a couple in the bullpen.    
 
So I think the bullpen is going to be an after thought (in a sense).  There could be some mandatory overflow into it, unless trades clear space.  And we'd only really trade for a SP or an elite reliever, which'd move the depth chart about.  
 
Regardless of how they do it, I think the Sox should ideally try to add two elite bullpen arms as Uehara/Tazawa insurance.  That gives you a top Four of X, Y, Uehara, Tarawa.   Of the remaining three spots, some could be filled by out of option/displaced starter guys (Wright/Kelly?).  The Sox can develop their younger guys at AAA and call up the current hot hands for the remaining two/three spots.  The problem is really what happens if the upper end of the bullpen goes down to age/injury/overworkedness.  They should try to stick with the 2013 model of redundant "closer types."  At least for the top few spots.  
I think Rodriguez is up to stay, and in the starting 5. Last night they were talking about taking the wraps off him for 200 innings next year, and that wouldn't be for  Pawtucket. Lovullo didn't come right out and say it but sounded like he's slated for the big team all year. Eckersley did, not that Eck has any say. 
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Al Zarilla said:
I think Rodriguez is up to stay, and in the starting 5. Last night they were talking about taking the wraps off him for 200 innings next year, and that wouldn't be for  Pawtucket. Lovullo didn't come right out and say it but sounded like he's slated for the big team all year. Eckersley did, not that Eck has any say. 
I'm not surprised to hear that, and think it's great news. But that means DDski is already talking trades with the staff, because EdRo makes six starters after an "ace" is acquired and Buchholz returns.
 

alwyn96

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I believe Varvaro is also under contract for a few more years, although it doesn't seem clear to me when he might pitch again. The fact that the Red Sox put him on waivers and then got him returned by the Cubs makes me think teams don't think all that highly of him, but he did have a pretty good 2014 with the Braves. Wren probably likes him.
 
If the Red Sox go with mostly internal options in the bullpen it's going to be based on a lot of projection and prayer. Outside of Uehara and Tazawa, who have their own concerns, most of the other guys are backend guys who have promise but not much in the way of results. I don't think there's anyone in there you'd feel at ease giving the ball to in the 8th inning with a playoff game on the line. Even the 7th inning would be a nail biter.
 
I'm not sure there are really many "elite" RP on the FA market this year, although I guess that depends on your definition of elite (although who is and isn't "elite" is probably the most boring discussion in sports). But I guess top guys in this class are probably Soria, O'Day, and...maybe Tony Sipp? Bastardo's maybe borderline. Shawn Kelley had a good year, but he's also had some stinkers lately. There isn't really anyone of the Chapman/Jansen/Kimbrel level out there, except possibly in trade. I guess the Red Sox don't even really need super-high level guys. Just some plausible 8th-inning types, which they don't really have.
 

nothumb

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I think it's definitely time to consider Barnes a RP and I think it's reasonable to hope he can be a solid 7th inning guy. People should get used to the possibility that our back 4 could be Koji, Taz, Ross, Barnes. It probably won't be exactly that, but that's really not a bad group and it's likely that everyone after the top two will be in that general category of young guys, converted starters, reclamation projects or mid tier FAs.

And that's fine by me. There is so much volatility in RP acquisitions and the team has other big needs. A great rotation can protect the pen and there is a good chance we can hit on one or two throw-shit-against-a-wall type candidates. If we get an established guy while also addressing other needs, great. But I won't pitch a fit if not.

After the four already mentioned, we have a good LOOGY in Layne, we have Workman returning who should also be considered a RP at this stage, we have Wright as a perfect long man / spot starter, and we have some other guys who could be in the mix in Noe, Light, Hembree, Esco, etc.

I am not ready to move any of Owens, Johnson or Kelly to the pen. Depending on the offseason I think you find a way to keep all those guys starting at least for the beginning of 2016. Escobar I'm on the fence and don't really care; if he's still here let the coaches decide what's best based on who else is a rotation candidate in AAA.
 

Rovin Romine

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nothumb said:
I think it's definitely time to consider Barnes a RP and I think it's reasonable to hope he can be a solid 7th inning guy. People should get used to the possibility that our back 4 could be Koji, Taz, Ross, Barnes. It probably won't be exactly that, but that's really not a bad group and it's likely that everyone after the top two will be in that general category of young guys, converted starters, reclamation projects or mid tier FAs.
 
FWIW, I think that'd be a disastrous plan for the BP.  Koji is at the end of his shelf life and has a broken paw.  Taz has gone down to overwork - a really restful off-season may not matter given the levels he's pitched at these past years.  Ross has been decent and Barnes has had a good Sept., but neither has been a model of consistency.  
 
Bullpens are always something of a crap shoot, but here, we're hoping Koji recovers, Taz recovers, Ross avoids his 2014/5 bad stretches, and Barnes continues to evolve as a a bullpen arm.   That's a lot that has to break right for the top 4 arms in the pen. 
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Rovin Romine said:
FWIW, I think that'd be a disastrous plan for the BP.  Koji is at the end of his shelf life and has a broken paw.  Taz has gone down to overwork - a really restful off-season may not matter given the levels he's pitched at these past years.  Ross has been decent and Barnes has had a good Sept., but neither has been a model of consistency.  
 
Bullpens are always something of a crap shoot, but here, we're hoping Koji recovers, Taz recovers, Ross avoids his 2014/5 bad stretches, and Barnes continues to evolve as a a bullpen arm.   That's a lot that has to break right for the top 4 arms in the pen.
Yep .. Couldn't agree more. I think they really need to bring in a top shelf RP as a Koji insurance policy and ultimate replacement. Exactly what they should have done last winter by bringing Andrew Miller back. Alas that ship has sailed.

This team doesn't need much .. An Ace , a closer in waiting and possibly another RP. The lineup is basically set .. Maybe a DeAza type 4th OF and they'll be ready to rock.
 

jasail

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nothumb said:
I think it's definitely time to consider Barnes a RP and I think it's reasonable to hope he can be a solid 7th inning guy. People should get used to the possibility that our back 4 could be Koji, Taz, Ross, Barnes. It probably won't be exactly that, but that's really not a bad group and it's likely that everyone after the top two will be in that general category of young guys, converted starters, reclamation projects or mid tier FAs.

And that's fine by me. There is so much volatility in RP acquisitions and the team has other big needs. A great rotation can protect the pen and there is a good chance we can hit on one or two throw-shit-against-a-wall type candidates. If we get an established guy while also addressing other needs, great. But I won't pitch a fit if not.

After the four already mentioned, we have a good LOOGY in Layne, we have Workman returning who should also be considered a RP at this stage, we have Wright as a perfect long man / spot starter, and we have some other guys who could be in the mix in Noe, Light, Hembree, Esco, etc.

I am not ready to move any of Owens, Johnson or Kelly to the pen. Depending on the offseason I think you find a way to keep all those guys starting at least for the beginning of 2016. Escobar I'm on the fence and don't really care; if he's still here let the coaches decide what's best based on who else is a rotation candidate in AAA.
 
I'd add one more arm to that group and move Barnes out. Then have Barnes, Workman, Wright, Hembree, Escobar, Hill, Layne, Light, Ramirez, Aro, Vavarro, maybe Kelly and any reclamation project they may come across fight for the last three spots. If Owens, EdRo, BJohn and maybe Kelly don't make the rotation then they should go to AAA as depth. Then try to manage the 40-man roster as best as possible to maintain as much depth as possible without killing it. Kelly is the only real wild card, as he could end up in the rotation, the bullpen or in AAA if he remains with the Sox. However, the first shoe has to drop and that's who of the 8 or 9 potential in-house starting options make the 4 likely rotation spots available. 
 

nvalvo

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Yep .. Couldn't agree more. I think they really need to bring in a top shelf RP as a Koji insurance policy and ultimate replacement. Exactly what they should have done last winter by bringing Andrew Miller back. Alas that ship has sailed.

This team doesn't need much .. An Ace , a closer in waiting and possibly another RP. The lineup is basically set .. Maybe a DeAza type 4th OF and they'll be ready to rock.
I would encourage them to acquire a "closer," and move Koji to a relief ace role.

My reasoning is this. Koji has a historically good K/BB ratio, which makes him a good choice to turn to in high leverage spots to extinguish fires.

(Possible downside: how long does it take him to get loose?)

The inducement of the high prestige role could help DD attract a high end FA or help a trade target feel positive about the role. Koji is old enough that there's no shame in a "demotion."

That would give you a pen like this:

New CL TBD.
Relief Ace Uehara
RH/LH SU Tazawa/preferably another acquisition, but possibly Ross
MI Ross? Barnes? Ramirez? Hembree? Some bounceback candidate with upside?
LOOGY Layne
Swing man Wright

Optionable depth: Aro, Barnes, Hembree, Escobar, Ramirez, etc.
 

nothumb

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jasail said:
 
I'd add one more arm to that group and move Barnes out. Then have Barnes, Workman, Wright, Hembree, Escobar, Hill, Layne, Light, Ramirez, Aro, Vavarro, maybe Kelly and any reclamation project they may come across fight for the last three spots. If Owens, EdRo, BJohn and maybe Kelly don't make the rotation then they should go to AAA as depth. Then try to manage the 40-man roster as best as possible to maintain as much depth as possible without killing it. Kelly is the only real wild card, as he could end up in the rotation, the bullpen or in AAA if he remains with the Sox. However, the first shoe has to drop and that's who of the 8 or 9 potential in-house starting options make the 4 likely rotation spots available. 
Yeah, I think job 1 is to figure out who is starting. You have Porcello, Clay, Miley and Edro looking like locks if they are still with the team and available. I think there's likely to be a trade involving one of the young guys (my guess in the other thread was Owens). I think Miley starts the year in the rotation almost no matter what but is a candidate to get replaced by whichever young guy doesn't win the 5th spot if things go badly.

I don't think the putative SP depth in this scenario (let's take a guess and say Kelly, Johnson, Wright) is considered for the pen, other than Wright maybe being the swing guy since he's out of options. I am not ready to turn the others into late inning guys just yet. Instead, I think we would basically be in a spot where our AAA depth is mostly on a clear track of either SP or RP and thus you don't have to think too much about stretching a guy out or getting him used to coming out of the pen. Maybe this changes if by August you haven't needed to call up Kelly but need bullpen help, or if one of the AAA starters really regresses.

So I'm not counting on a big boost to the pen from converting a current SP, unless you still consider Barnes a starter. In terms of age and developmental level of their MLB ready SP assets, they are at a a point where in order to maximize value I believe they are likely to trade one or two in order to upgrade the rotation and keep the rest for SP depth and development. That means, in addition to who we have now, I am expecting one or maaaaybe two established, mid tier MLB bullpen arms to join via trade or FA, and for the kids to battle it out for the rest.
 

Rasputin

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Bring in a top notch closer and a top notch starter and I think things will work out.
 
Chapman, Koji, Taz, Ross, Layne, Wright, Barnes would not be a terrible bullpen to start the season with. 
 
Ace, Porcello, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Kelly, Owens. That's seven and doesn't include Johnson, whose shoulder is still in limbo.
 
I think it's pretty clear we send Owens down to start the season with him the clear 6th guy, but that means we have to trade one of the other six. It's not going to be the Ace, Porcello, Rodriguez, or Kelly which means it's Buchholz or Miley and I think that decision is based on what's more valued, ceiling, floor, or predictability. Miley pretty clearly has the lowest ceiling of the group, but he's also got a relatively high floor and is more predictable.
 

nothumb

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Rasputin said:
Bring in a top notch closer and a top notch starter and I think things will work out.
 
Chapman, Koji, Taz, Ross, Layne, Wright, Barnes would not be a terrible bullpen to start the season with. 
 
Ace, Porcello, Buchholz, Rodriguez, Miley, Kelly, Owens. That's seven and doesn't include Johnson, whose shoulder is still in limbo.
 
I think it's pretty clear we send Owens down to start the season with him the clear 6th guy, but that means we have to trade one of the other six. It's not going to be the Ace, Porcello, Rodriguez, or Kelly which means it's Buchholz or Miley and I think that decision is based on what's more valued, ceiling, floor, or predictability. Miley pretty clearly has the lowest ceiling of the group, but he's also got a relatively high floor and is more predictable.
 
Are you approaching this from the perspective that we are probably signing, rather than trading for, both a SP and a RP? And that we then need to move a SP not based on bringing back a big piece, but just to make room and/or replenish depth? Because I don't see Clay or Wade as part of a trade that brings back either a closer or an ace, and I don't think you want to trade them if you're also trading one of the young SPs in order to acquire MLB pitching.
 
It's not at all obvious to me that Owens is the designated #6 in AAA, and is ruled out as a trade chip. I think he might actually make the most sense as part of a package to bring back an impact MLB starter. Rodriguez looks to be in the rotation for good, and neither Kelly nor Johnson have enough value to be the centerpiece of such a deal.
 
Obviously this all plays out depending on the market and the team's own evaluations. But to me, if there's a "need" to move any SP, I'd say it would be one of the young lefties. You aren't putting all three in your rotation long term, you aren't ready to give up and move any to the pen, and, for Owens and Edro at least, their value now is likely as high as it ever will be without them being locked-in MLB regulars (at which point you aren't moving them).
 

Rasputin

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nothumb said:
 
Are you approaching this from the perspective that we are probably signing, rather than trading for, both a SP and a RP? 
 
I'm assuming we're signing a SP and trading for a RP.
 
There's almost no remotely realistic trade in which I'm willing to give up Owens. He has done exactly what you want a young pitcher to do while he's adjusting to the majors. He misses bats. He's still got things to do, but he looks like he's got a real chance to get close to his ceiling. 
 
There are a bunch of guys I'd rather trade than Owens. Heck, I might trade Anderson Espinoza before I traded Owens just because Owens is major league ready and Espinoza is so far away.
 
I don't think we can trade Miley alone for a closer, but a team like the Padres wants to win now, doesn't have what it takes to win now, has a closer to trade, and could really use some stability in the rotation.
 
We could give them Miley and some prospects for Kimbrel. We go with Ace, Porcello, Rodriguez, Buchholz, and Kelly until Buch gets hurt and we bring up Owens.
 
I don't really give a shit if we end up having three real young guys in the rotation at the same time. 
 

nothumb

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Rasputin said:
 
I'm assuming we're signing a SP and trading for a RP.
 
There's almost no remotely realistic trade in which I'm willing to give up Owens. He has done exactly what you want a young pitcher to do while he's adjusting to the majors. He misses bats. He's still got things to do, but he looks like he's got a real chance to get close to his ceiling. 
 
There are a bunch of guys I'd rather trade than Owens. Heck, I might trade Anderson Espinoza before I traded Owens just because Owens is major league ready and Espinoza is so far away.
 
I don't think we can trade Miley alone for a closer, but a team like the Padres wants to win now, doesn't have what it takes to win now, has a closer to trade, and could really use some stability in the rotation.
 
We could give them Miley and some prospects for Kimbrel. We go with Ace, Porcello, Rodriguez, Buchholz, and Kelly until Buch gets hurt and we bring up Owens.
 
I don't really give a shit if we end up having three real young guys in the rotation at the same time. 
 
I'm not saying you don't plan to roll with three young guys in the rotation, I was saying you consider trading one because you probably don't roll with three (or even four, depending on who they sign and if they keep Miley) lefty starters.
 
What you propose isn't awful or anything, but I don't think it would be my Plan A, for a couple reasons.
 
First, I would lean towards trading for a SP rather than signing one. I expect the Sox to explore all options and I'm not ruling out the FA route, but I just think a younger, controllable ace acquired in trade is doable based on our assets and payroll, is in line with DD's historical strengths as an exec, and is a better bet for overall value and roster balance during what should be a very fertile next couple years.
 
And, in line with that, the high opinion of Owens cuts both ways. If we think he has a good shot at reaching his potential, then potential trade partners may think so too. And they would need to think so in order to nab us a front end starter, because you don't trade young front end starters without getting some really good talent in return. And if you are right that Owens has, say, an 80% chance of turning into a good 3 / fringe 2 by 2017, in my opinion you still give that up for a cost controlled top 40ish starter today, given the chance.
 
But setting that aside, even if you sign a FA SP1, I don't think it's mandatory that you move Miley before April. Even though you have some decent depth all the way down to Kelly / Owens / Johnson / Wright, you have a lot of injury / performance / youth risk at basically everywhere except SP1. Having a guy like Miley who is a near-lock to give you 200 IP at 100 ERA+ is not a bad idea going into the season. Sure, I give him up for Kimbrel and live with the risk, but that's a very specific and optimistic scenario.
 
It's going to hurt giving up some good prospects for a young starter, but it's going to lead to a much better roster and payroll situation from 2017-2020, when we can look forward to prime years of Mookie, Xander, JBJ, Rodriguez, and a whole other wave of exciting youngsters all at once. (Swap in Owens for Rodriguez there if it makes you feel better).
 

geoduck no quahog

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Bullpen. Who can ever predict?
 
I thought I'd take a look at relief pitchers over the past 3 years. I used the criteria of minimum 60 innings pitched ranked by top 10 in WHIP (because I think that's the easiest stat that addresses what you want from a reliever - no one getting on base or driving in inherited runners...I imagine there could be a better stat)
 
3 years: There are 26 named top 10 relievers
Only 4 relievers appeared in the top 10 for 2 of the 3 years, and they were all 2015-2014 pitchers (Miller, Melancon, Davis, O'Day). No top 10 from 2013 appeared in the top 10 for the following years.
 
How many of these guys were born and how many were made? How many of these guys succeeded after being traded or after FA? Should I use <1.00 WHIP as criteria?
 
Of the 26:
 
Only 8 were acquired as Free Agents
6 were acquired by Trade and 2 off Waivers
10 were home-grown
 
7 were converted starters
 
I can go through the biography of all 26 (which I won't excerpt here due to length), but the various paths to decent reliever are all over the place. It looks like the least predictable position in baseball to me. Furthermore, look at the current salaries of some of these guys and you also find costs all over the place (and I assume $/WAR).
 
Is there any security in trading for or signing a reliever? How many of these acquisitions were done when the reliever was at high value? 4 or maybe 5:
Nathan
Kimbrel
Miller
Robertson
(Gregerson?)
 
I wish there were a way to quantify what a substantial gamble it is to acquire excellent relief pitching. It's something we all accept.
 
Converted Major League Starter (7/26):
Glen Perkins
Joe Nathan
Koji Uehara
Wade Davis
Andrew Miller
Joaquin Benoit
Luke Hochevar
 
Home Grown (10/26):
Luis Avilan
Glen Perkins
Tony Watson
Greg Holland
Kenley Jansen
Luke Hochevar
Jake McGee
Dellin Betances
Sean Doolittle
Roberto Osuna
 
Migrated from original team (16/26):
Joe Nathan (Trade, Free Agent, Free Agent)
Craig Kimbrel (Trade)
Tyler Clippard (Trade, Trade, Trade)
Koji Uehara (Trade, Free Agent)
Darren O'Day (Waivers, Waivers)
Mark Melancon (Trade, Trade, Trade)
Wade Davis (Trade)
Brad Boxberger (Trade, Trade)
Joe Smith (Trade, Free Agent)
Andrew Miller (Trade, Trade, Trade, Free Agent)
Pat Neshek (Waivers, Free Agent, Trade, DFA, Free Agent)
Luke Gregerson (Trade, Trade, Free Agent)
George Kontos (Trade)
David Robertson (Free Agent)
Joaquin Benoit (Released, Free Agent, Free Agent)
Will Harris (Waivers, Waivers, Waivers)
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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I still have to be convinced that the variation in relievers is more than statistical noise. 60 IP in a season is just a really small sample size. In 60 post-season innings David Price has an ERA around 5. It's meaningless. Pay for the guys with the most talent, and hope for the best.

The "failed starter" angle seems like a big market inefficiency. Even guys with mediocre stuff, like Chris Young, do great in relief. Yet they can still be had late in free agency for cheap like he was.

I think a key is to identify those who've failed due to lack of command, which can come together when you focus on throwing just out of the stretch and focus on the guys best 2 pitches instead of 3 or 4.

So who are the likely candidates in this year's FA pool.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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Plympton91 said:
I still have to be convinced that the variation in relievers is more than statistical noise. 60 IP in a season is just a really small sample size. In 60 post-season innings David Price has an ERA around 5. It's meaningless. Pay for the guys with the most talent, and hope for the best.

The "failed starter" angle seems like a big market inefficiency. Even guys with mediocre stuff, like Chris Young, do great in relief. Yet they can still be had late in free agency for cheap like he was.

I think a key is to identify those who've failed due to lack of command, which can come together when you focus on throwing just out of the stretch and focus on the guys best 2 pitches instead of 3 or 4.

So who are the likely candidates in this year's FA pool.
Joe Kelly.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Aug 1, 2001
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According Abraham in the Glob, Rich Hill "is almost surely to be elsewhere" next year"
 
"Hill believes he can secure a rotation spot, something the Red Sox cannot promise him." 
 
That would be unfortunate, Hill would have been a great guy to stash in the bullpen and have for rotation depth. He probably won't hold up for a full season as a starter, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw 80 or 90 really good innings somewhere before getting hurt again. 
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Unfortunate, but by no means a surprise.  They took a flyer on him late in the season because they needed bodies in the rotation in September.  He greatly exceeded expectations, which played him right out of the Red Sox hands IMO.  With the success he had, you can't blame him for wanting to pursue a starting job rather than take whatever role the Sox can find for him.  Someone with a 5th starter spot to fill will take a shot on him.
 

Fireball Fred

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Jul 29, 2005
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NoCa Mass.
I don't see how the Sox can put together a plausible rotation including both Buchholz and Kelly, two guys who can be counted on not to come close to 200 IP. Buchholz is a good gamble if there are assets in the bullpen who can step up, and that's where Kelly and Barnes come in. Obviously they'd trade for the right return, but these are reasonable in-house options.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Look at KC's bullpen construction this year.

Holland - great bullpen guy they developed
Davis - former so-so starter picked up from another team, then converted to closer, became dominant
Herrera - developed him through their system
Madson - injured for many years, picked up off the scrap heap
Morales - was bad for the Red Sox his last year, even worse for Colorado the next year, came to KC and pitched well
Medlen - picked up off the scrap heap after two surgeries
Hochevar - not good as a starter, converted to reliever

I mean, that's two big arms developed in-house, two converted starters, one scrap heap pickup, and two guys coming off major injuries that they took fliers on.

Result? Incredible, dominant bullpen. But how much of this could have been reasonably predicted beforehand?

I'm not saying bullpen construction is a total crapshoot, but my goodness, it's a lot of a crapshoot.

Red Sox: Trade for Chapman. Barnes. Kelly. Uehara. Layne. Ross. Taz. That's seven competent pitchers. Three major power arms (Chapman, Kelly, Barnes). Two converted starters (Kelly, Barnes). Veteran magician (Koji). Two lefties that are pretty decent. A guy with a good track record (Taz). A few of them developed in-house. One high priced stud (Chapman).

That mix SHOULD be pretty effective, and it only requires bringing in one new guy - Chapman.
 

nvalvo

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BaseballJones said:
But how much of this could have been reasonably predicted beforehand?

I'm not saying bullpen construction is a total crapshoot, but my goodness, it's a lot of a crapshoot.
 
 
One way to think about it is that the reliable in-house hedge of Holland and Herrera let them take risks with the other spots. 
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
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Jul 10, 2002
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Plympton91 said:
I still have to be convinced that the variation in relievers is more than statistical noise. 60 IP in a season is just a really small sample size. In 60 post-season innings David Price has an ERA around 5. It's meaningless. Pay for the guys with the most talent, and hope for the best.

The "failed starter" angle seems like a big market inefficiency. Even guys with mediocre stuff, like Chris Young, do great in relief. Yet they can still be had late in free agency for cheap like he was.

I think a key is to identify those who've failed due to lack of command, which can come together when you focus on throwing just out of the stretch and focus on the guys best 2 pitches instead of 3 or 4.
 
 
Looks like Dombrowski is hoping Matt Barnes can be one.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Dave Cameron article on foxsports.com mentions using Koji as setup man next year:
"Dombrowski also has publicly stated that he's interested in adding a new closer, which would allow Koji Uehara to move back into a setup role, and give the team additional late-game depth it lacked last year.

"People have told me that he can fit different roles,'' Dombrowski said of Uehara. "€œBut you also feel comfortable that he can close games at this point in his career. I would hope that we could find somebody else to help in that regard."
 

jsinger121

@jsinger121
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Jul 25, 2005
17,718
Dave Cameron article on foxsports.com mentions using Koji as setup man next year:
"Dombrowski also has publicly stated that he's interested in adding a new closer, which would allow Koji Uehara to move back into a setup role, and give the team additional late-game depth it lacked last year.

"People have told me that he can fit different roles,'' Dombrowski said of Uehara. "€œBut you also feel comfortable that he can close games at this point in his career. I would hope that we could find somebody else to help in that regard."
They can probably get Papelbon for free if they want.