2015 Draft Watch

Marbleheader

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The Red Sox are once again in position for a top 10 pick. I will update the draft order here periodically:
 
2015 Draft order 9/25
Arizona Diamondbacks  63  96  0.396  0.0 
Houston Astros [1] 
Texas Rangers  65  93  0.411  2.5 
Colorado Rockies  66  93  0.415  3.0 
Minnesota Twins  68  90  0.430  5.5 
Houston Astros  69  90  0.434  6.0 
Boston Red Sox  69  89  0.437  6.5 
Chicago Cubs  71  88  0.447  8.0 
* Chicago White Sox  72  86  0.456  9.5 
10  * Philadelphia Phillies  72  86  0.456  9.5 
11  Cincinnati Reds  73  85  0.462  10.5
 
 
Some of the early projected top 10 possibilities:
 
Daz Cameron OF GA HS 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38rgu0lH0Cc
Michael Matuella RHP Duke
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NNfiVoje7s
 

Marbleheader

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Alex Bregman SS LSU 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz0RuYY3fJk
Brendan Rodgers SS FL HS 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJdA5RNP6iM
 

Marbleheader

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Nathan Kirby LHP Virginia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJlnJJOooQI
Carson Fulmer RHP Vandy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZlzxXwsapg
 

Marbleheader

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Ian Happ 2B Cincinnatti
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGfmKD61XrM
Riley Ferrell RHP TCU 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWvtqz9rLVo
 

Brianish

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I sure do hope Matuella falls to us. (Barring a step backwards next season). 
 

mabrowndog

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Marbleheader said:
Alex Bregman SS LSU
 
The Sox took him with their 23rd pick in 2012, but couldn't buy him out of his commitment to Baton Rouge. He's a complete stud. If Boston takes him again with their top pick, it'll be the 2nd time in 4 years they'll have used a first-rounder to take a player raised in New Mexico (joining Blake Swihart in 2011) . Cue the Breaking Bad theme.
 

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Meanwhile the Area Code Games, among the leading national high school showcases, were held last week in Long Beach. A lot of the buzz was centered on LHP Justin Hooper (here's his MaxPreps page).
 
Day 1:
 
Hooper, who entered in relief after a three-inning stint to start the game by righthander Joe DeMers, did not throw a fastball below 92 in his first inning, sitting 92-94 while touching 96. His velocity largely sat in the 90-93 range the rest of the way. Hooper offered a two-seam fastball with greater sink at 88-91 in his second and third frames.
 
Working from the third-base side of the rubber while throwing slightly across his body, Hooper has a fast arm and the ball jumps out of his hand. His delivery also offers deception because of his arm slot, which is below three-quarters, and extension.
 
“It looks like the ball is coming out of his arm pit and just jumps at hitters,” a National Crosschecker said.”Lefthanded hitters had no chance against him.”
 
Hooper generates glove-side run to his fastball and showed the ability to locate to either outer-third of the plate. The UCLA commit relied on his fastball-curveball combination in his first frame, throwing another offering (a slider) only once in 19 pitches in his opening frame. His curveball showed at least above-average potential with considerable depth and shape, as he demonstrated feel for the offering by throwing it for a strike more than two-thirds of the time. In the second and third innings he used his newly added slider more frequently.
 
“In the bullpen they were both spinning pretty well,” Hooper said. “I started throwing my curveball first, so I have been throwing it forever. My dad taught me how to throw it like a football. My slider I just picked up. I started messing around with a slider a couple of months ago. I didn’t even throw it until the end of the season. I thought about it and said that using the smaller laces, a cutter/slider thing would work. I just said, ‘Let’s throw a slider today.’”
 
Although some area scouts said they have never seen him use a changeup in game action, Hooper demonstrated feel for the offering by throwing it for a strike four of the five times he threw it.
 
“It has developed really well,” Hooper said. “I have been working out with Tom House at USC. I stayed down there for a week in the dorms and then I came down there for a day. He really showed me how to have a good feel for my changeup.”
 
The 17-year-old showed feel for locating his heater to both sides of the plate with a delivery that has been tweaked.
 
“We changed my leg kick and (House) closed off my shoulder so I could be more accurate and go in and out more,” Hooper said. “He changed me a little bit, and I had been throwing that way for as long as I have been throwing. Then he said, ‘Do it like this.’ Then I was kind of iffy about it. But it works for me.”
Hooper threw three frames without allowing an earned run. He walked one and struck out five on four swinging strikes.
 
The 6-foot-7, 230-pound Hooper has an extra-large frame and lots of room to get stronger within his athletic build.
 
“I could add some more muscle in my legs,” he said. “My upper body seems fine but I want to add some strength and drive in my legs.”
 
From there he moved on to this week's Under Armour All-American Games in San Diego:
 
The top velocity of the day belonged to the West starter, lefthander Justin Hooper (De La Salle, Concord, Calif.), who hit 96 six times and 97 once while hitting 92, 93 and 94 once with arm-side run.
 
The 6-foot-7, 230-pound Hooper struck out one of the three hitters he faced on three swinging strikes. His mid-70s curveball didn’t show as well as earlier this week at the Area Code Games. He threw one mid-80s slider that generated a swinging strike. The final pitch of his outing was an elevated 96 mph fastball on the outer third that East shortstop Brendan Rodgers drove to deep left field. Some thought that the towering fly ball was a home run off the bat and had a hang time of 6.69 seconds.
 

Plympton91

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I'm still rooting for them to finish the season on a 35-10 run, and beat out the Orioles for the Division on the last day of the season.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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gryoung said:
No need for any more lefty starters with Owens, Johnson, and Ball in the queue.  The team desparately needs power bats - that's the ticket!
 
You don't  draft for need. You draft the best player available. If all else is equal meaning you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally valuable, sure you can pick the one that you have less of in your system, but when you have a high draft pick especially, you pick the top player on your board when Bud Selig calls your name.
 

chrisfont9

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
You don't  draft for need. You draft the best player available. If all else is equal meaning you've got a pitcher and a hitter who are equally valuable, sure you can pick the one that you have less of in your system, but when you have a high draft pick especially, you pick the top player on your board when Bud Selig calls your name.
This isn't 100% true, is it? For example, if the best player were a college catcher who would be ML-ready in a couple years, wouldn't the Sox take a good, hard look at who's #2 on their board? 
 

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chrisfont9 said:
This isn't 100% true, is it? For example, if the best player were a college catcher who would be ML-ready in a couple years, wouldn't the Sox take a good, hard look at who's #2 on their board? 
 
Probably not. I mean, there are exceptions to every rule, so this hypothetical doesn't really address the problem with gryoung's post, but to indulge it for a moment, I'd argue that no, they'd still take the catcher. Best case scenario, you're looking at that player being ready in 3 or 4 years. Catchers develop slowly, even ones coming out of college. A lot can happen in that time, including Swihart flaming out or Vazquez getting hurt, or both guys turning out to be solid major leaguers but not stars, or any of a number of other possibilities.
 
Drafting talent in MLB isn't like drafting talent in the NBA or NFL. You are't grabbing guys that will help you in the short term except in the very rare circumstances you are picking first and a Bryce Harper is available. Even then, you're likely looking at a year before you'll see anything from them at the major league level.
 
And again, if the catcher and the next guy on their board are very similar in value, yeah, you might go the other way. But if any kind of significant gap exists between the two players, you go BPA.
 

chrisfont9

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Probably not. I mean, there are exceptions to every rule, so this hypothetical doesn't really address the problem with gryoung's post, but to indulge it for a moment, I'd argue that no, they'd still take the catcher. Best case scenario, you're looking at that player being ready in 3 or 4 years. Catchers develop slowly, even ones coming out of college. A lot can happen in that time, including Swihart flaming out or Vazquez getting hurt, or both guys turning out to be solid major leaguers but not stars, or any of a number of other possibilities.
 
Drafting talent in MLB isn't like drafting talent in the NBA or NFL. You are't grabbing guys that will help you in the short term except in the very rare circumstances you are picking first and a Bryce Harper is available. Even then, you're likely looking at a year before you'll see anything from them at the major league level.
 
And again, if the catcher and the next guy on their board are very similar in value, yeah, you might go the other way. But if any kind of significant gap exists between the two players, you go BPA.
OK thanks
 

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Probably not. I mean, there are exceptions to every rule, so this hypothetical doesn't really address the problem with gryoung's post, but to indulge it for a moment, I'd argue that no, they'd still take the catcher. Best case scenario, you're looking at that player being ready in 3 or 4 years. Catchers develop slowly, even ones coming out of college. A lot can happen in that time, including Swihart flaming out or Vazquez getting hurt, or both guys turning out to be solid major leaguers but not stars, or any of a number of other possibilities.
 
Drafting talent in MLB isn't like drafting talent in the NBA or NFL. You are't grabbing guys that will help you in the short term except in the very rare circumstances you are picking first and a Bryce Harper is available. Even then, you're likely looking at a year before you'll see anything from them at the major league level.
 
And again, if the catcher and the next guy on their board are very similar in value, yeah, you might go the other way. But if any kind of significant gap exists between the two players, you go BPA.
not to mention that a college catcher thought to be nearly MLB ready would be a very attractive trade chip.  The bust rate on even really good prospects is just so high in baseball.  You take the guy you are highest on and let the chips fall where they may.  
 

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My point is, since the baseball draft is such a crapshoot with very, very few "can't miss" propects, when the Sox get to their turn, they need to look at power bats over pitching -- all things considered equal.  If there are 2-3 players lumped together on their draft sheet, and one is a power bat while the other two are pitchers, they need to look hard at that position player.
 

Brianish

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gryoung said:
My point is, since the baseball draft is such a crapshoot with very, very few "can't miss" propects, when the Sox get to their turn, they need to look at power bats over pitching -- all things considered equal.  If there are 2-3 players lumped together on their draft sheet, and one is a power bat while the other two are pitchers, they need to look hard at that position player.
 
This is exactly the reason they need to do the opposite of what you're suggesting. 
 

gryoung

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Now that this horse is pretty well beaten ......
 
What I am suggesting is -- if there is a sure-fire, can't miss, gotta-have prospect that falls to the Sox, and that prospect is a left-handed pitcher, then they should take him. 
 
But those type of prospects are rare -- especially pitchers.
 
The more-likely scenario is the Sox have several equally-rated prospects available to them at their pick.  None are can't-miss. 
 
If so, they should favor a bat over a pitcher.
 

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gryoung said:
The more-likely scenario is the Sox have several equally-rated prospects available to them at their pick.  None are can't-miss. 
 
If so, they should favor a bat over a pitcher.
 
Why?  Taking Jon Denney as the most recently drafted example, I'd suggest the Sox look to overall personal character and commitment to baseball as the deciding factors rather than relatively equal-rated prospects' position on the field or dominant handedness.
 
Because any player still needing development to become a major-league ballplayer will need to overcome his own failure on a daily basis to get there.
 

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gryoung said:
Now that this horse is pretty well beaten ......
 
What I am suggesting is -- if there is a sure-fire, can't miss, gotta-have prospect that falls to the Sox, and that prospect is a left-handed pitcher, then they should take him. 
 
But those type of prospects are rare -- especially pitchers.
 
The more-likely scenario is the Sox have several equally-rated prospects available to them at their pick.  None are can't-miss. 
 
If so, they should favor a bat over a pitcher.
 
What is this based on? They spend all year building a draft board to avoid exactly this situation. They should have a pretty clear order for players they are targeting, so I would argue that the situation you are describing here would be more accurately described as "less likely" not more. Besides, this isn't even close to what you said in your original post, or in your follow up. You keep citing a "need" for power bats which suggests you are missing the point, which is you don't draft for need. You draft the best players possible because the vast majority of the guys you draft won't ever sniff the major league roster anyway. So you maximize your chances that you'll have some kind of major league quality player and if you have a particular need on the 25 man that isn't filled by your farm, you use prospects as trade chips to make a trade or look to the free agent market.
 
What Ben Cherington did this trade deadline is a great example of how you can address a need like power at the major league level without developing the solution in your own system. They are also really well suited to further address their holes this winter, in part, because they have a surplus of one kind of player (pitchers). The fact that they have more young pitchers than they can realistically work into the major league roster means they can use some of that crop to make a trade without leaving themselves thin somewhere.
 
Had the Sox been spreading out their picks among positions and player types to fill an area of "need" they likely wouldn't be in that position. You draft the best player available, except in the rare instance that you are faced with two players you really can't decide between and one happens to be something you have a ton of already. I'd be surprised if that happens more than two or three times a draft, though.
 

gryoung

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The baseball draft is unique to other sports, probably hockey is the closest.  There aren't many can't-miss prospets.  And, in my opinion, players fall more into tiers than a true pecking order.  Young power bats are currently considered a rare commodity.  If the Sox have a chance to grab one early, they should.  They already have a well-stocked system of young pitching prospects.  That's all I'm saying.  Maybe they find power through international signings.  Maybe they make a trade.  Either of those moves could alter their approach.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Neither of those things should alter their approach to the draft. I get what you are saying, but what you are saying is wrong. Their history in the draft works against you. In 2013 they took Trey Ball over Austin Meadows despite having a ton of solid pitching prospects. That was the best opportunity to grab a power bat they've had under this ownership group, and power bats were more of a weakness in the system then than it is now with Sam Travis and Travis Shaw both looking like potential options to replace Napoli in the 2015/2016 off season, Devers flashing an outstanding bat with some exciting pop, and don't sleep on Bryce Brentz who has excellent raw power. Then there are a number of lottery tickets with exciting power like Ockimey and Jordan Betts.
 
And if you don't believe me, maybe you'll believe Amiel Sawdaye, the director of amatuer scouting for the Sox.
 
 
 
"You have to line the board up exactly how you see it and just hope that you get a guy a little bit higher than you anticipate."
 
That's from this article where the author paraphrased Sawdaye with
 
 
 
As is said every year, Sawdaye affirmed that the Red Sox’s strategy will be to take the best player available. Instead of paying attention to any of the organization’s needs at a certain position or previous draft history, the Red Sox will take who they have ranked highest, whether it is a college player, high school player or a high-rated player whose stock was hurt by an injury, as was the case when they selected outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. in the supplemental first round of the 2011 draft.
 
This isn't a matter of a difference of opinion. Everything we know about how the Red Sox approach the draft disagrees with your position.
 

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It also bears mention that power is typically the last thing to develop in prospects, and thus, the thing that requires the most scouting projection.  Because there are so many known variables - how a guy fills out physically, how he'll handle high quality pitching, etc, there is a much higher variance in projecting power in prospects.  Also, since power is universally coveted by teams (in the same way that guys who throw 98 are universally coveted), the premium/safer power bats will rarely be available to the Red Sox.  Even when they drafted 7th, the two premium power bats (Kris Bryant and Clint Frazier) were off the board before the 7th pick.
 
I guess what I'm saying is that the high desirability of power is already "priced in" to the position on the draft board.  To deviate beyond that in an effort to specifically target power because it is a system need is a really good way to miss on an entire draft.
 

gryoung

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It's only my opinion - that they need to look at a power bat.The Ball over Meadows pick was a flawed one in my opinion. I have little to complain about with the Sox drafts ...they are loaded.  There are a few potential power bats around - Brents and Devers are pretty well known.  A couple more would be welcome.
 

DavidTai

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What they are trying to say, basically, is that the reason the Sox farm system is loaded in the first place is that they didn't "prioritize" a tool, and that adopting a "must pursue power bat" strategy is a good way to not maintain having a loaded farm system.

Take Best Player available. Period.
 

thestardawg

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For all the people who continue to bleat about the Meadows over Ball pick, it is worth nothing that a baseball prospectus scout assessment has Meadows having a realistic role as a 4th outfielder.  I'll take the potential of a young lefty over that. 
 

TimScribble

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With last night's loss and the Cubs' win, Boston is now tied for 5th worst record.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
At this point, they have an outside shot at a #3. I say go all in on the tanking. 
 
I think "outside shot" still applies to the top pick. They are only 6 games ahead of Texas in the standings. Granted, both Colorado and Texas are so decimated by injuries that it's probably unlikely Sox outpace either of them in losses the rest of the way to jump ahead, but that seems to be a better use of of the phrase you chose. I'd argue that the Sox are probably not appreciably better than the Astros, White Sox, Phillies, Diamondbacks or Padres and are absolutely "in the hunt" for the third pick.
 

LeftyTG

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of course, the Astros are locked into the number 2 pick overall as compensation for failing to sign Aiken.  Which sucks.
 

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There is an update at the bottom of that page in the form of a tweet from Mark Berman. Apparently owner Jim Crane says nothing is going on there.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Yeah I was a bit distracted this week and barely noticed that we've now dropped 8 straight and every game they have left is against a playoff contender. You're right they could drop all the way to the bottom. I think top five pick is probably likely at this point, with no real obstacle to going all the way to 1 or 2, but like you noted, it would take Texas and Colorado picking it up.
 
Yay...?
 
:globalsox:
 

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gryoung said:
Are draft picks still not eligible to be traded or have the rules been loosened up?
 
Only Competitive Balance Picks can be traded, and there are restrictions:
 
Each lottery pick can be traded only once and cash can't be involved in the transaction. The choices can be dealt only during the regular season, up until 5 p.m. ET on the first day of the Draft.
 
Regular draft picks and compensatory draft picks (those for losing a qualified free agent or failing to sign a prior draft pick) may not be traded. We'll see what happens when the next CBA is negotiated and takes effect in 2017.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
At this point, they have an outside shot at a #3. I say go all in on the tanking. 
 
Today's lineup surely qualifies as that:
 
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF
2. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
3. David Ortiz (L) DH
4. Yoenis Cespedes (R) LF
5. Allen Craig (R) 1B
6. Daniel Nava (S) RF
7. Carlos Rivero (R) 3B
8. Dan Butler (R) C
9. Jemile Weeks (S) 2B
 
5th worst record but a loss today and Twins win and we'll be 4th worst.
 

LostinNJ

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caminante11 said:
 
 
Today's lineup surely qualifies as that:
 
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF
2. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
3. David Ortiz (L) DH
4. Yoenis Cespedes (R) LF
5. Allen Craig (R) 1B
6. Daniel Nava (S) RF
7. Carlos Rivero (R) 3B
8. Dan Butler (R) C
9. Jemile Weeks (S) 2B
 
5th worst record but a loss today and Twins win and we'll be 4th worst.
 
I rooted for losses two years ago because that team was so unfun. This year is different -- I want the young guys to succeed.
 

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LostinNJ said:
I rooted for losses two years ago because that team was so unfun. This year is different -- I want the young guys to succeed.
 
YHeah but success for these kids is not necessarily defined as winning ballgames at the major league level right now.  It's getting ABs/innings against major league opponents and understanding what it takes to compete at this level.    W/L record from here on in is meaningless  - positioning for a better draft pick is really the only thing they have to play for.
 

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Quintanariffic said:
 
YHeah but success for these kids is not necessarily defined as winning ballgames at the major league level right now.  It's getting ABs/innings against major league opponents and understanding what it takes to compete at this level.    W/L record from here on in is meaningless  - positioning for a better draft pick is really the only thing they have to play for.
I have a feeling this isn't what they're thinking when they take the field, nor is it what we want them to be thinking. We want them to practice winning games.
 

LostinNJ

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
We want them to learn how to be ML ballplayers, how to carry themselves, interact with the coaching staff, their elder teammates, the support staff. How to use video more effectively as well as scouting reports. How to make adjustments to the way they approach opposing hitters (as pitchers) and how they are being approached by opposing pitchers (as hitters). Then how to adjust again when the opposition makes more adjustments. How to physically adjust to the more rigorous daily schedule, air travel for longer trips and the longer season. How to mentally adjust to playing in front of 30K plus people every night and reading their name in the paper everyday or hearing it on the drive into the park when some idiot calls in to complain or boast about them. If they win great, but the rest of that is more important right now. Because learning that stuff and about a couple dozen other things will make them winners down the road. 
I agree. I note that you do not say you hope they will lose games this month.
 
Imagine that it's very tight for draft position going into the last game of the season, and we magically know that a loss for the Red Sox means they'll have the fifth pick, while a win moves them down to ninth. Matt Barnes starts, and he's on his way to his first major league win. Do we root for Koji to blow the save?
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
To your specific example, that would be perfect, since Barnes would get a boost and Koji would probably blow it anyway, so all good. 
 
Not all good, the last game of the season is against the Yankees.  Beat them at all costs even if they are already eliminated.
 

LostinNJ

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Damn you, Allen Webster! You pitched well and won a game! Don't you see how that's bad for the future of the franchise?
 

ehaz

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Looks like former #10 overall pick Phil Bickford will officially attend Southern Nevada next year, thus making him eligible for the draft.
 
“He had the best arm in the league,” Chatham manager John Schiffner said. “He threw one of our guys a slider in a big situation, and three kids’ knees buckled in our dugout. And that’s not even his best pitch, because we saw 97 mph.”
An athletic 6-foot-5, 208-pounder, Bickford flashes an above-average slider and throws strikes. Though his slider and changeup still need development, he profiles as a starting pitcher. Given that the 2015 Draft crop is thinner than usual at the top, he has a good chance to go higher than he did in 2013 and could be in the mix for the top overall selection.
 
/drool