2014 Post-Draft Wrap & Dissection Thread

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
The next post will have a chart of all Sox draftees the past three days. I'll add links to their college or Perfect Game scouting pages over the ensuing days as available. I've also started a separate thread to track news, signings & bonuses.
 
Some quick figures on the 41 players selected:
 
* 16 HS, 5 juco, 20 from NCAA four-year colleges (17 from D-I; 2 from D-II, 1 from D-III)
* 18 pitchers, 23 position players (going with most recent dominant roles)
* Arms: 15 RHP and just 3 LHP.
* Positions: SS (5), C (5), CF (5), 1B (3), OF (3), 3B (2)
* Batting: Right (15), Left (6), Switch (2)
* Hyped Talent: As noted in the News/Signings thread, the Sox drafted 19 players ranked in the Top 500 by Baseball America. They include 9 high school kids, 7 from four-year colleges, and 3 juco players. 
* NCAA D-I conferences: 6 from the SEC, 2 from the Big West. Then one each from the ACC, AAC, A-Sun, Big 12, Big Ten, C-USA, Northeast, Sun Belt and WCC.
 
With the obvious caveats of "we don't know who's going to sign" and "it's way too early to judge these kids", what are the initial thoughts and impressions of the types of players the Sox selected, the positional distribution, the HS/college split, and the team's general drafting strategy?
 
My takes:
 
* The emphasis on relievers, particularly college arms with projectable rapid advancement, was certainly notable. The successes the team has had in recent years with guys like Papelbon, Delcarmen, Bard, and most recently Workman & Britton shows that the draft can be fertile ground for the bullpen, with a far better return on investment than trades or acquiring veteran free agents. And rather than simply looking to convert starters who fail to develop a third pitch, they've decided to go after mature guys with experience and proven success in relief roles. It's as sure a sign as any that we'll never again see anything like the Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon or Joel Hanrahan trades, or the Bobby Jenks signing, as long as Ben Cherington is running this club. Lesson learned.
 
* Among position players, a lot of them at the high-skill positions (C, SS, CF) with versatility a central theme with most of them.
 
* Like last year, when they signed 18 of their first 19 selections and 27 of 40 picks overall, there seems to be a strong sense of certainty in this year's draft. There are maybe a half-dozen HS players who the Sox seemingly have a very slim chance of signing, but they didn't waste any high picks on them. 
 
* At first glance, the dearth of both LHH (6 of 23 hitters) and LHP (3 of 18 pitchers) in this crop was a bit of surprise. But the bottom line is there are too many factors that outweigh handedness. If an RHH has the hit tools, pitch judgment, plate approach, attitude, and positional flexibility required, the side of the plate he hits from won't be a limitation on advancement or playing time. Ditto for pitching. And I haven't looked at prior drafts to see what the L/R/S distributions were, so my initial impression might be meaningless anyway. It was purely a "hey, look at that" observation.
 

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
The 2014 amateur haul...
 
[tablegrid=]RD PICK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T CLASS HT, WT DOB 1 26 Chavis, Michael Sprayberry Senior HS (GA) SS R/R HS 5'10", 190 lbs   08/11/95 1 33 Kopech, Michael Mt Pleasant HS (TX) RHP R/R HS 6'3", 195 lbs   04/30/96 2 67 Travis, Sam Indiana (IN) 1B R/R JR 6'0", 210 lbs   08/27/93 3 103 Cosart, Jake Seminole State (FL) RHP R/R J2 6'2", 175 lbs   02/11/94 4 134 McAvoy, Kevin Bryant University (RI) RHP R/R JR 6'4", 210 lbs   07/21/93 5 164 Ockimey, Josh SS Neumann Goretti HS (PA) 1B L/R HS 6'1", 215 lbs   10/18/95 6 194 Mars, Danny Chipola College (FL) CF S/R J2 6'0", 195 lbs   01/22/94 7 224 Reilly, Reed Cal Poly - San Luis Obispo (CA) RHP R/R SR 6'4", 220 lbs   01/05/92 8 254 Moore, Ben Alabama (AL) C R/R JR 6'1", 195 lbs   09/22/92 9 284 Steen, Kevin Oak Ridge HS (TN) RHP R/R HS 6'1", 170 lbs   07/24/96 10 314 Sturgeon, Cole Louisville (KY) OF L/L SR 6'0", 180 lbs   09/17/91 11 344 Whitson, Karsten Florida (FL) RHP R/R JR 6'4", 220 lbs   08/25/91 12 374 Beeks, Jalen Arkansas (AR) LHP L/L JR 5'11", 180 lbs   07/10/93 13 404 Shepherd, Chandler Kentucky (KY) RHP R/R JR 6'2", 185 lbs   08/25/92 14 434 Procyshen, Jordan Northern Kentucky U (KY) C L/R JR 6'0", 210 lbs   03/11/93 15 464 Kemp, Trenton Buchanan HS (CA) CF R/R HS 6'2", 195 lbs   09/30/95 16 494 Gunn, Michael Arkansas (AR) LHP L/L JR 6'0", 205 lbs   01/25/93 17 524 Rivera, Jeremy El Paso CC (TX) SS S/R J1 5'9", 150 lbs   01/30/95 18 554 Betts, Jordan Duke U (NC) 3B R/R SR 6'3", 220 lbs   10/06/91 19 584 Hill, Tyler Delaware Military Academy (DE) CF R/R HS 6'0", 195 lbs   03/04/96 20 614 Fisher, Devon Western Branch HS (VA) C R/R HS 6'0", 215 lbs   05/01/96 21 644 Rice, Ian Chipola College (FL) C R/R J2 6'1", 185 lbs   08/19/93 22 674 Matijevic, J.J. Norwin HS (PA) SS L/R HS 5'11", 211 lbs   11/14/95 23 704 Miller, Derek University of Texas - Arlington (TX) CF R/R JR 6'2", 180 lbs   07/18/92 24 734 Tellez, Cisco University of California - Riverside (CA) 1B L/L JR 5'11", 217 lbs   06/05/92 25 764 Klobosits, Gabe Galveston College (TX) RHP L/R J1 6'7", 270 lbs   05/16/95 26 794 Harris, Ryan Florida (FL) RHP R/R JR 6'2", 205 lbs   01/25/93 27 824 Nunez, Taylor Southern Mississippi (MS) RHP R/R JR 6'4", 185 lbs   07/28/92 28 854 Peterson, David Regis Jesuit HS (CO) LHP L/L HS 6'6", 215 lbs   09/03/95 29 884 Pennington, Josh Lower Cape May Reg HS (NJ) RHP R/R HS 6'0", 175 lbs   07/06/95 30 914 Kendall, Jeren Holmen HS (WI) CF L/R HS 5'10", 170 lbs   02/04/96 31 944 Mckeon, Alex Texas A&M International U (TX) C R/R JR 6'2", 200 lbs   05/20/93 32 974 Rolen, Case Sherman HS (TX) RHP R/R HS 6'2", 200 lbs   07/16/96 33 1004 Alvarado, Luis Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (PR) RF R/R HS 6'5", 185 lbs   01/05/97 34 1034 McEachern, Kuehl Flagler College (FL) RHP R/R JR 6'4", 195 lbs   05/07/93 35 1064 Puskarich, Ross Liberty HS (CA) 3B R/R HS 6'1", 210 lbs   08/15/96 36 1094 Wilpon, Bradley The Brunswick School (CT) RHP R/R HS 5'10", 175 lbs   08/09/95 37 1124 Lorenzana, Hector U Oklahoma (OK) SS R/R SR 5'11", 190 lbs   09/29/91 38 1154 Show, Brandon U San Diego (CA) RHP R/R JR 6'2", 180 lbs   10/31/92 39 1184 Gretler, Mike Bonney Lake HS (WA) SS R/R HS 6'2", 180 lbs   01/01/96 40 1214 Winterburn, Joseph U La Verne (CA) C R/R SR 6'1", 200 lbs   03/28/92 [/tablegrid]
 

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
I don't follow the high school kids nearly the same way I follow college players, but based on reputation and pre-draft hype alone I'd have to go with Peterson (28th) & Kendall (30th). They were ranked #95 and #88 respectively by Baseball America, making them worthy of the mid-3rd round in their eyes. I believe the Sox' chances of actually signing either are slim and slimmer, but they've surprised us before.
 

Merkle's Boner

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2011
3,854
I always like to see these kids' birthdays. It's cool that Kopech is the 2nd youngest guy drafted in the first 20 rounds (actually 1 day older than the 20th round pick). That means he's been competing against older kids most of his amateur career.

In that vein, the Puerto Rican kid Alvarado might be interesting in that he's the only '97 birthday. He'll be 17 this entire season.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
JJ Matijevic is committed to Arizona and it seems like it's going to take a sizeable offer to change his mind.

BA head him ranked at 180. He has an advanced bat for a high schooler with power potential. More likely to end up at 3rd than stick at short long term.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
My impression from reading the individual threads on the top 10 guys is that only the #4 guy from Bryant was a "underslot" pick designed to save money for something else.  That seems very different from previous years, if it is the case.  I wonder if they have decided that "wasting" those earlier draft picks wasn't producing the type of results they wanted (one that I remember being an issue was Myles Smith, and he's been awful).  Or, maybe there just weren't as many players as previous years who they wanted and were going to be available late that were worth saving money for.
 
Am I off base?
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,891
Melrose, MA
Plympton91 said:
My impression from reading the individual threads on the top 10 guys is that only the #4 guy from Bryant was a "underslot" pick designed to save money for something else.  That seems very different from previous years, if it is the case.  I wonder if they have decided that "wasting" those earlier draft picks wasn't producing the type of results they wanted (one that I remember being an issue was Myles Smith, and he's been awful).  Or, maybe there just weren't as many players as previous years who they wanted and were going to be available late that were worth saving money for.
 
Am I off base?
No, you're spot on. Recall that last year the Sox were left with unspent money because the money they saved from the easy sign types was not enough to sign either Boldt or Sheffield. Maybe they figure they can do better by drafting slot appropriate types in rounds 5-10.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 21, 2007
1,934
  • I think Michael Chavis (1) goes overslot. Outside the top 10, I think Karsten Whitson (11) and Chandler Shepherd (13) also go overslot.
  • Probable money-savers in the top 10 rounds: Kevin McAvoy (5), Josh Ockimey (6), Ben Moore (8), Kevin Steen (9) and Cole Sturgeon (10).
  • Everyone else in the top 10 was picked where they were projected to go.
  • I think Trenton Kemp (15) goes to Fresno State, Devon Fisher (20) to Virginia, Ian Rice (21) to Houston, JJ Matijevic (22) to Arizona, Ryan Harris (26) back to Florida, David Peterson (28) to Oregon, Jeren Kendall (31) to Vanderbilt, Case Rolen (32) to Dallas Baptist, Mike Gretler (39) to Oregon State.
  • Tyler Hill (19) should sign.
  • Luis Alvarado (33) was a steal and isn't committed to any college, but my guess is he finds a Juco to go play at (Miami-Dade).
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,752
Rogers Park
(Moved from the other thread.)
 
This seems to me like a pretty high rate of early announcements of intent to sign, including some of the fairly high-end talent (Travis, Whitson, etc.). Does that impression seem accurate?
 
If so, is this a sign of Cherington/Sawdaye targeting guys they know they can ink, or is this a sign of the new slotting system having its desired (by the owners) effect of reducing amateur players' leverage? Or something else?
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,602
deep inside Guido territory
The player outside of the top 10 rounds I am most intrigued with is Karsten Whitson.  As stated in the draft thread, he was the #9 overall pick in the 2010 draft and turned down close to $2 million and went to Florida.  His freshman season he was a stud as he went 8-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 19 starts as he helped lead the Gators to the CWS.  He struck out 92 batters in 97 innings and was named the National Freshmen Pitcher of the Year.  But, he developed shoulder issues into his sophomore year and only made 14 appearances(4-0 3.51 ERA).  His shoulder problems caused him to undergo surgery and miss the entire 2013 season.  
 
This season, he only pitched 37 innings in 14 appearances(1-1, 3.86 ERA with only 21 Ks and 23 walks) but he was pitching his best at the end of the season.  He was the winning pitcher against LSU in the SEC title game touching 96 miles per hour.  
 
If he can continue to strengthen his shoulder and start to regain his form of a few years ago, this will be a steal.  His slider used to be a plus pitch for him, but it hasn't been as good since his freshman year.  I have confidence that he can return to his earlier form.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 21, 2007
1,934
RedOctober3829 said:
If he can continue to strengthen his shoulder and start to regain his form of a few years ago, this will be a steal.  His slider used to be a plus pitch for him, but it hasn't been as good since his freshman year.  I have confidence that he can return to his earlier form.
 
I wouldn't say I'm confident in such a wild card like Whitson, but I loved the pick and based on his comments from the article dog posted on the main board, it sounds like he's humbled to still have the opportunity to play pro ball. Hopefully he just signs for the $100K. There is a lot of work to be done with him. Pretty much the only thing he has going for him right now is that he's regained his velocity. The control and inconsistencies in his secondary pitches are rather alarming.
 

TheGoldenGreek33

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 21, 2007
1,934
Outside the top 10, I like Chandler Shepherd the most. I wrote him up a couple summers ago after a fine showing in the PG league:
 
A five-sport varsity letterman at Lawrence County HS (Louisa, Ky.), Shepherd was the top high school prospect in the state of Kentucky entering the 2011 draft. As a sophomore in 2009, the right-hander tossed a state-record 46 consecutive scoreless innings, but had Tommy John surgery and missed his entire junior year. The White Sox took a flier on him in the 41st round in 2011, but Shepherd honored his school commitment and split time as a mid-week starter and long reliever for the nationally-ranked Wildcats. He went 3-1, 3.83 in 56 innings and burst onto the scene after shutting out No. 9 Arkansas and top-ranked LSU in a pair of three-plus innings of relief. Shepherd has further impressed this summer – leading the league in wins (7), ERA (1.31) and opponents’ batting average (.154) while striking out 50 and walking 12 in 55 innings for the league champs. At 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, Shepherd has all the ingredients scouts look for in a pitcher – quality stuff, a smooth delivery, and projection. Shepherd showcased a deceptive 88-91 mph fastball with running life and also mixes in an above-average 12-to-6 breaking ball and an improving changeup.
 
Perfect Game had him 286 on its list:
 
Shepherd appears to be more successful working in summer-league competition as opposed to the demands associated with a being a student-athlete. He excelled two years ago as an all-star starter in the Perfect Game Collegiate League, and was a model of consistency last summer on Cape Cod, working mostly in relief. After achieving mostly favorable results in a short role for Kentucky in his first two college seasons, Shepherd was handed a job in the Wildcats rotation this year as a junior, and while he seemed to adapt easily to his new role initially, he never seemed to find comfort there and eventually ended up back in the bullpen. Shepherd doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, but the pitch has often been effective in the past with its sneaky-quickness and running action he is able to get in on the hands of righthanded hitters. Moreover, he usually has been able to mix his fastball effectively with an above-average curve, his best pitch, that has excellent 12-to-6 depth, and a quality changeup customarily thrown at 81-83 mph. In 14 appearances this year (9 starts) Shepherd has posted a 5-3, 3.36 record with 23 walks and 52 strikeouts in 70 innings.
 
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,602
deep inside Guido territory
TheGoldenGreek33 said:
 
I wouldn't say I'm confident in such a wild card like Whitson, but I loved the pick and based on his comments from the article dog posted on the main board, it sounds like he's humbled to still have the opportunity to play pro ball. Hopefully he just signs for the $100K. There is a lot of work to be done with him. Pretty much the only thing he has going for him right now is that he's regained his velocity. The control and inconsistencies in his secondary pitches are rather alarming.
I wouldn't say it's that alarming.  He's only thrown 37 innings since coming back from surgery.  Let him get into extended spring for the rest of the year and continue to work.  
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
According to the sources in the other thread, the only penalty for exceeding the signing bonus cap by 5% or less is a tax on the overage. Given how low the Sox payroll is this year, I would have to bet Henry will let them spend that extra amount. It's about $315,000, so it could entice one of the late rounders who fell considerably.
 

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
Yeah, the conventional wisdom is that most teams including the Sox will do just that. The extra bonus money and the 75% tax on it (another ~$260k) add up to about what they're paying Daniel Nava this season. That's a relative pittance compared to the potential payoff.
 

DavidTai

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
1,262
Herndon, VA
How does the Kevin Steen slot work? $142,600 is his slot, and the Sox are already over their limit, aren't they? So if they don't sign him, they have to pay a higher tax overage because his slot lowers their cap, right?
 
(Admittedly, I'd really prefer to see him signed - as long as the Sox have drafted, I don't remember them ever signing their first 20 picks...!)
 

mabrowndog

Ask me about total zone...or paint
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
39,676
Falmouth, MA
DavidTai said:
How does the Kevin Steen slot work? $142,600 is his slot, and the Sox are already over their limit, aren't they? So if they don't sign him, they have to pay a higher tax overage because his slot lowers their cap, right?
 
(Admittedly, I'd really prefer to see him signed - as long as the Sox have drafted, I don't remember them ever signing their first 20 picks...!)
 
Yes, if they fail to sign Steen, then their overall cap would be reduced by that slot amount. But no, the Sox are not already over their limit. They're merely over the collective slot values for the players they've signed so far AND whose bonuses have been announced/confirmed.
 
As the opening post in the signings thread shows, only 6 of the bonuses for the 11 picks they made in the first 10 rounds are known. It's widely believed that the bonuses for 10th-rounder Cole Sturgeon and especially 4th-rounder Kevn McAvoy will be well under slot. And as noted in the post before yours, the Sox can go 5% over cap while only incurring an additional 75% tax on that overage, but without losing any draft picks. So those are the areas where the Sox can expect to make up some ground.
 
In addition to Steen's demands, the bonus for 3rd-rounder Jake Cosart remains a big wild card, but I'm going to assume he's getting slot or perhaps a little above. It's also widely believed the bonus for 8th-rounder Reed Reilly will be over-slot.
 
I'm still expecting Steen to sign, as managing bonus expectations with all picks is in the first 10 rounds a huge key to managing how much slot money a team might have left to sign higher-demand players taken in later rounds. While the rules prohibit actual pre-draft negotiations between clubs and players/agents, it happens anyway. So I'm certain the Sox already had handshake/wink-wink arrangements in place with every player they picked in those rounds, and probably several dozen others. Really, the only uncertainty was whether the players they picked would still be available when they were on the clock.