2023-24 Celtics

RorschachsMask

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Yeah, you can put Tatum on any team, and it's probably a playoff team. Detroit, San Antonio, wherever, he could definitely raise the floor.

Jaylen is just really good, and it's good to have really good players. Not sure there's more to it than that, beyond the fact that he's very scaleable and fits on both ends in any lineup.
That’s been my biggest correction with Jaylen. Despite whatever flaws he may have or had, it’s good to have really good players lol. Especially ones with his track record of improving on weaknesses.

I just was kind of surprised at the take, tbh. I think Jaylen sets the tone for their aggression quite often, but it’s almost hard to describe just how much Tatum has raised their floor over the years.
 

The Mort Report

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Totally get what you all are saying, I just think on this team, JB enhances the team play a bit more, and I do think he makes players around him better having an elite shot creator working more within the confines of the team structure than a player of his caliber may normally. He is deadly as a cutter, something I don't think we see JT do much. If Tatum is having an off night, how many possessions die with him taking ISO shots? A Tatum off night does more damage than a JB off night in my eyes.

JT is 100% more valuable yes, and more important to winning. I just think JB has turned himself into a lower ceiling, higher floor guy than JT on this team
 

lovegtm

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Ah, Rorschach is talking about a "floor raiser" in the sense of "can make any team decent", and you are talking about JB having fewer really bad nights than JT.

Although I think Tatum has really improved at eliminating those awful 2-17 type games.
 

The Mort Report

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Ah, Rorschach is talking about a "floor raiser" in the sense of "can make any team decent", and you are talking about JB having fewer really bad nights than JT.

Although I think Tatum has really improved at eliminating those awful 2-17 type games.
Oh for sure, I think the calculus changes based on the team. I'm just using the 2023/2024 team as the base
 

RorschachsMask

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Totally get what you all are saying, I just think on this team, JB enhances the team play a bit more, and I do think he makes players around him better having an elite shot creator working more within the confines of the team structure than a player of his caliber may normally. He is deadly as a cutter, something I don't think we see JT do much. If Tatum is having an off night, how many possessions die with him taking ISO shots? A Tatum off night does more damage than a JB off night in my eyes.

JT is 100% more valuable yes, and more important to winning. I just think JB has turned himself into a lower ceiling, higher floor guy than JT on this team
I think the disconnect is that most people feel Tatum does his scoring more within the scheme offensively, whereas Jaylen is known more to force the issue.

Just to give an idea, the team is +7.9 with Jaylen on the court, and Tatum off. With Tatum on, and Jaylen off, the team is +16. As for the floor raiser, Jaylen on the court without Tatum, KP, and White is +0.7. Tatum on the court without Jaylen, White, and KP? +16.6. If we’re talking about off nights, I posted the stats the other day, Tatum is 8th in the league with how often he scores above his average, and the efficiency has been elite most of those nights.

I know Jaylen occasionally cuts, but he doesn’t even do it enough to qualify for nba.com’s player tracking. Tatum only does it .6 times per game, so Jaylen is somewhere under that.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/cut?dir=A&sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION

I love love love how Jaylen has played. but he’s not really a big floor raiser type. It’s not a knock, it’s just not his style of play.
 
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Montana Fan

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Here’s something much more important to the 23-24 Celtics than Brown v Tatum. ;) While I was out fishing/searching for Redfish the other day I was in some prIme water and in an effort to get a fish to tangle with me I started saying, come on Red Foxx, show yourself Red Skelton, where ya at Red Holzman, come on Red Auerbach. Then started daydreaming about what RA would think about this current group. (Imagine he’d have liked it a lot!). Then thought, did I ever see Red Auerbach with any Red hair and that would be a no. Which led me to come across this picture later in the day. Can’t tell his hair color but I wasn’t surprised to see him pictured in a defensive stance.

79843
 

chilidawg

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Here’s something much more important to the 23-24 Celtics than Brown v Tatum. ;) While I was out fishing/searching for Redfish the other day I was in some prIme water and in an effort to get a fish to tangle with me I started saying, come on Red Foxx, show yourself Red Skelton, where ya at Red Holzman, come on Red Auerbach. Then started daydreaming about what RA would think about this current group. (Imagine he’d have liked it a lot!). Then thought, did I ever see Red Auerbach with any Red hair and that would be a no. Which led me to come across this picture later in the day. Can’t tell his hair color but I wasn’t surprised to see him pictured in a defensive stance.

View attachment 79843
Good weed?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This seems like a great spot to post this chart. Consider, for a moment, the idea that human development isn't linear and that it can come in spurts. Between the dreaded eye test and the data, we may be witnessing it with Jaylen.

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lovegtm

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I loved the below video. The difference in how he can control the ball while he bodies to his spots is night and day from last spring even.

View: https://youtu.be/Gyv-Ie9NPdE?si=FaZ1pVDt87lgfG2U
Thank you for sharing - everything suggests the improvement is real. That video is great though - I especially enjoyed Jaylen cooking Kyle Lowry and Hartenstein. The former because he is Kyle Lowry. The latter because he plays the armpit of America.
 

lovegtm

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How are they putting up 124 with that lineup lol. It's Tatum, White, and then all roleplayers. Some real shooting with Horford, Hauser, Pritchard, but also playing a lot of non-shooters real minutes in Kornet, Brissett, and Tillman. Just not much playmaking out there.

I guess the answer is that White and Tatum, staggered, is enough, because they're really good. And then PP leveling up as a playmaker adds just enough juice to keep the machine going.
 

lovegtm

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Now 5 days in Atlanta, then Pelicans and Hornets. No B2Bs. I'm expecting only one starter out at a time, and a 3-1 finish to the road trip. Not that wins and losses matter much anymore, but this team is fully locked in from players 1-12, so why not.
 

dhellers

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It appears the Celts have clinched #1 in the East. Should we wait for #1 overall before popping a virtual champagne cork (just one, since we all know the real goal)

From NoxInNixon in the Chi game thread:

#1 seed in East is clinched. If Boston loses every remaining game, and the Bucks win them all, they will be tied head to head, will both have won their division, and will have identical EC records. The next tiebreaker is record vs. EC playoff teams, which the Celtics have clinched.
 

The Mort Report

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It appears the Celts have clinched #1 in the East. Should we wait for #1 overall before popping a virtual champagne cork (just one, since we all know the real goal)

From NoxInNixon in the Chi game thread:

#1 seed in East is clinched. If Boston loses every remaining game, and the Bucks win them all, they will be tied head to head, will both have won their division, and will have identical EC records. The next tiebreaker is record vs. EC playoff teams, which the Celtics have clinched.
I don't know where the numbers are getting mixed up, but on the postgame they said we haven't clinched yet, will with a Bucks loss Sunday or a Bucks win with a C's win on Monday. Not that it matters, but I'm wondering where wires are getting crossed, I can't see the math where they haven't clinched, but I can't imagine NBCBoston getting it wrong
 
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HowBoutDemSox

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It may be a question of how that “record vs. EC playoff teams” is calculated: based on playoff teams only (top 6) or also including the play-in tournament teams too (top 10).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It appears the Celts have clinched #1 in the East. Should we wait for #1 overall before popping a virtual champagne cork (just one, since we all know the real goal)

From NoxInNixon in the Chi game thread:

#1 seed in East is clinched. If Boston loses every remaining game, and the Bucks win them all, they will be tied head to head, will both have won their division, and will have identical EC records. The next tiebreaker is record vs. EC playoff teams, which the Celtics have clinched.
I think the next tiebreaker is conference record, not playoff teams.

http://global.nba.com/standings/#

Someone on Reddit said that if Cs lose out, they will have 15 conferences and if MIL wins out, they will have only 14 but I’m too lazy to check.
 

jose melendez

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I haven't watched this much regular season Celtics in years--unemployment will do that--but it's hard to overstate how good, how entertaining, and how deep this team is.

It's really quite striking that every player at least one through six is a legit two way player and beyond that you've got a bunch of guys with multiple legit skills. They just seem like they're going hard every game and they can manage it because even if the bench guys aren't going to get a lot of run at playoff time, they're hungry, they're reasonable skilled, and they go all out.

I always have mixed feelings about rest because sometimes I think load management (either within games or taking games off) can mess with coniditioning (different sport, but I always thought the Pats won a lot of games because they were better conditioned because they didn't rest players) but these guys are certainly going to have pretty fresh legs for the stretch run.

They should really run any team in the east off the court.
 

NoXInNixon

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NoXInNixon

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It may be a question of how that “record vs. EC playoff teams” is calculated: based on playoff teams only (top 6) or also including the play-in tournament teams too (top 10).
Doesn't matter. There aren't any permutations of playoff teams you can come up with that puts the Bucks ahead, since the Celtics have so few games left against possible EC playoff teams.
 

Imbricus

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I was never a big Kornet fan, he always seemed too passive and I never could figure out what Brad saw in him, but this season ... he's definitely more aggressive with his shot-blocking and rebounding, plus he's smart about exploiting the holes in the defense. Meanwhile, I was initially quite high on Tillman, but lately his defense has seemed rather pedestrian. If I'm not mistaken, Joe pulled him early and chewed him out last game? He really has to go back to being a lockdown defender, because he doesn't bring much on offense.
 

TripleOT

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Against Chicago I preferred watching the team when Tatum was sitting over when he was playing. They were playing with such great pace, but when Tatum came in the game, he tended to slow things down, which I found annoying. He did do a good job during the closing out of the game.

I guess I have PTSD from past seasons, but I don’t want to see slowdown basketball with eight minutes left in the game. If you are crushing a team all game playing with pace, why not just continue to do that until the last 5-6 possessions?
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Some analysis of the Cs from Coby White. The "stick to their identity" stuff is important, I think, in that White's saying that not every team does this. There's no situation where someone comes off the bench as a sixth man and all of a sudden they're running, or certain players keep them from playing a style of D they want to play. Everyone can plug in. I think this was why Brogdon, especially, was a bad fit. He could fill it up, but it really did seem like the identity changed when he came in and it was heliocentric around him. Same with TimeLord keep them from being able to play five out. The roster building is really impressive.

View: https://twitter.com/byjuliapoe/status/1771729182902378684?s=20
 

NoXInNixon

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According to Reddit, the tiebreaker that refers to record against playoff teams refers only to the top 6, not those six plus the winners of the play-in games. And the Hawks could still theoretically be in the top 6, so the Celtics could lose that tiebreaker. However, they'd have to win every game they play except the one game against the Bucks, the Bucks would have to win every remaining game, the Pacers would have to lose every remaining game, and Miami and Philly would have to lose almost all of their remaining games.

But apparently it's mathematically possible.
 

lovegtm

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I was never a big Kornet fan, he always seemed too passive and I never could figure out what Brad saw in him, but this season ... he's definitely more aggressive with his shot-blocking and rebounding, plus he's smart about exploiting the holes in the defense. Meanwhile, I was initially quite high on Tillman, but lately his defense has seemed rather pedestrian. If I'm not mistaken, Joe pulled him early and chewed him out last game? He really has to go back to being a lockdown defender, because he doesn't bring much on offense.
If I didn't know any better, I'd think that Kornet saw Tillman come in, realize his job and summer '24 contract were in serious jeopardy, and then somehow find a new gear overnight.

It was funny to hear Scal keep repeating "when did he turn into a beast???", because I kept asking the same thing.
 

Tudor Fever

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Today’s OKC at MIL result will either clinch the East or reduce the overall magic number to 5.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If we end up playing Denver in the finals, it will be a real test of whether it is better to be the team with the best player on the floor (Denver with Jokic) versus the team with more top players on the floor and the better top 6 (clearly Boston).
 

lovegtm

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If we end up playing Denver in the finals, it will be a real test of whether it is better to be the team with the best player on the floor (Denver with Jokic) versus the team with more top players on the floor and the better top 6 (clearly Boston).
The Cs have won a lot of series in Tatum's tenure where he's been the 2nd best player on the floor. If he had been that in the 2022 Finals, we'd have hung banner 18 in 5 games.

The problem is the times he's been the 5th best guy.

I respect/fear Jokic more than any living player, but if we get 2nd best Tatum, the Cs roll.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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According to Reddit, the tiebreaker that refers to record against playoff teams refers only to the top 6, not those six plus the winners of the play-in games. And the Hawks could still theoretically be in the top 6, so the Celtics could lose that tiebreaker. However, they'd have to win every game they play except the one game against the Bucks, the Bucks would have to win every remaining game, the Pacers would have to lose every remaining game, and Miami and Philly would have to lose almost all of their remaining games.

But apparently it's mathematically possible.
I saw that post and after doing a little bit of Binging on the subject, it seems that no one really knows what "playoff teams" means since the advent of the play-in tournament. For example, playoffstatus.com, which Lowe says he looks at for playoff odds, says this: "NBA.com actually states "W-L percentage against playoff teams". Before utilizing the play-in tournament this simply meant the top 8 teams. Since utilizing the play-in tournament the meaning of the statement is a bit unclear, does it mean the top 6, top 8, or top 10 teams."

Which is probably why no one really wants to come out and say that the Cs clinched that tie-breaker because no one really knows what it means.

My personal opinion is that (i) "playoff teams" means "playoff teams" and (ii) given that the play-in tournament is a distinct entity from the regular season and the playoffs (for instance, it has its own record books), the NBA would figure out the tiebreakers after the play-in tournament decided the final two playoff teams - so the tiebreaker would be record against the 7 playoff teams after the play-in tournament is finished. This would also have the added benefit of keeping a little suspense while the play-in tournament is going on. But it's a WAG and I certainly could be wrong about this.
 

SteveF

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What if you are breaking a tie between the 10th and 11th teams? You can't exactly wait for the play-in results to decide who is in the play-in. Of course the issue has existed before, right? In the days before the play-in, you'd have a similar issue with the 8-9. Presumably only the top 7 teams counted as playoff teams to decide who the 8th playoff team was. And once you figured out who the 8th seed was you can imagine a scenario where that alters the seeding higher up the chain.

And of course you still have the same issue at 6-7 today. My guess is only the top 6 count as playoff teams, and the 6-7 tiebreak would probably only consider the top 5 and would presumably be done first. I think.

There's some inherent logical funkiness in deciding who is a playoff team by record against playoff teams when you haven't quite finished deciding who is and isn't a playoff team.

Edit: Honestly, it's possible I've twisted myself into a pretzel here, so I'm not even sure this makes any sense.
Edit: Of course it's possible they could just use the top 9 to decide 10 and 11, like they probably must have in the 8/9 secnario prior to the play-in.
 
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Smokey Joe

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What if you are breaking a tie between the 10th and 11th teams? You can't exactly wait for the play-in results to decide who is in the play-in. Of course the issue has existed before, right? In the days before the play-in, you'd have a similar issue with the 8-9. Presumably only the top 7 teams counted as playoff teams to decide who the 8th playoff team was. And once you figured out who the 8th seed was you can imagine a scenario where that alters the seeding higher up the chain.

And of course you still have the same issue at 6-7 today. My guess is only the top 6 count as playoff teams, and the 6-7 tiebreak would probably only consider the top 5 and would presumably be done first. I think.

There's some inherent logical funkiness in deciding who is a playoff team by record against playoff teams when you haven't quite finished deciding who is and isn't a playoff team.

Edit: Honestly, it's possible I've twisted myself into a pretzel here, so I'm not even sure this makes any sense.
It makes sense to me because I was going to post the same quibble. I expect that the NBA is going to ignore that question until it happens.
 

TripleOT

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The Celtics are:

8-0 without JB
19-3 without KP
9-1 without Jrue
3-1 without White
4-1 without JT
 

RorschachsMask

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In 426 non garbage time possessions without Tatum or Jaylen on the court, the team has a +21.4 net rating.

There’s some fun stuff when looking at the lineup combos, it’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen.
 

NoXInNixon

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What if you are breaking a tie between the 10th and 11th teams? You can't exactly wait for the play-in results to decide who is in the play-in. Of course the issue has existed before, right? In the days before the play-in, you'd have a similar issue with the 8-9. Presumably only the top 7 teams counted as playoff teams to decide who the 8th playoff team was. And once you figured out who the 8th seed was you can imagine a scenario where that alters the seeding higher up the chain.
The rules address this point. Any team tied for a playoff spot is considered a playoff team for purposes of the tiebreaker. The exact phrase is "playoff eligible." The rules also state that tiebreakers are applied at the end of the regular season. So they can't consider any of the results of the play-in games.

It has to be either Top 6 (including ties) or Top 10 (including ties)
 

lovegtm

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In 426 non garbage time possessions without Tatum or Jaylen on the court, the team has a +21.4 net rating.

There’s some fun stuff when looking at the lineup combos, it’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen.
I'm all-in on it being coaching. You can credit CJM, Cassell, Charles Lee, whomever, but this team is plug-and-play to a pretty much unprecedented degree in the NBA. Everyone is on the same page and executes the same stuff the right way. Never seen anything like it--maybe the 2012-2017 Spurs teams?
 

RorschachsMask

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I'm all-in on it being coaching. You can credit CJM, Cassell, Charles Lee, whomever, but this team is plug-and-play to a pretty much unprecedented degree in the NBA. Everyone is on the same page and executes the same stuff the right way. Never seen anything like it--maybe the 2012-2017 Spurs teams?
Talking just about the regular season, they’re about as plug and play as you’ll see. Obviously playoffs are a much different story, but I also think the bench has multiple playoff rotation caliber players.The buy in has been next level, up and down the roster.

It would take a lot of things going wrong for this team not to win the title, IMO. And I’m not really the reactionary, hyperbole type. Having a first team all nba guy AND the 2-10 that this team has? It’s a little unfair lol.
 

jmcc5400

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For what it’s worth, the standings on the NBA app now show the Celtics as having clinched the Eastern Conference. So we can totally relax if they lose their next 11.
 

lovegtm

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Talking just about the regular season, they’re about as plug and play as you’ll see. Obviously playoffs are a much different story, but I also think the bench has multiple playoff rotation caliber players.The buy in has been next level, up and down the roster.

It would take a lot of things going wrong for this team not to win the title, IMO. And I’m not really the reactionary, hyperbole type. Having a first team all nba guy AND the 2-10 that this team has? It’s a little unfair lol.
I'm not quite there on the title being overwhelming probability. I like them a lot against everyone except Denver. They're a favorite against the Nuggets, but Denver's lack of depth doesn't hurt as much in a Finals setting.

It probably would come down to whether the Cs could crack Denver's "hedge Jokic hard and recover perfectly behind that" scheme that gave Tatum so much trouble a couple weeks ago, and that the Nuggets execute really well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If I didn't know any better, I'd think that Kornet saw Tillman come in, realize his job and summer '24 contract were in serious jeopardy, and then somehow find a new gear overnight.

It was funny to hear Scal keep repeating "when did he turn into a beast???", because I kept asking the same thing.
Competition can create next levels. We saw it in New England the year Jimmy G was drafted and Brady said uh no you’re not.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Funny. CHI scored 113 points, shot 57/37% from deep, and had 36 AST and only 7 TOs. According to Dan Greenberg, below is the list of 13 prior games where a team matched or exceeded those stats. Every other time it's been a blowout win. Not Saturday night. As Greenberg says, "Mazzulla ball".

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